No. 11 Virginia at No. 16 Louisville, 1 p.m. CBS
By now, you've most likely seen that the Cavaliers crafted a crazy comeback against Wake Forest on Tuesday. After missing 13 of their 14 3s in the game, Virginia sank four in a row as the Demon Deacons crumbled around them, missing seven free throws in the final minutes. No doubt, despite Wake not being a good team, the rally will go down in Wahoo lore as one of the best ever and for its unlikely finish when Darius Thompson's off-balance heave banked cleanly through the hoop as the buzzer went off, capping Virginia's 18-points-in-83-seconds flurry. But an effort like the Cavs gave for the vast majority of that game likely won't cut it against the Cardinals. The good news is Virginia got its first ACC road win of the season against the Demon Deacons. The bad news is the easier ACC road games -- Virginia Tech (though, admittedly, the Hokies are much improved), Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Wake -- are over, and the more challenging ones are up ahead -- the Cardinals, Pittsburgh, Duke, Clemson, Miami. Here's a more detailed look at Louisville:
Record: 17-3, 6-1
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Damion Lee (17.2), senior guard Trey Lewis (12.7), sophomore center Chinanu Onuaku (10.6)
Leading rebounders: Onuaku (9), junior center Mangok Mathiang (5.7, but he is out until February with a broken foot), freshman forward Ray Spalding (4.3), sophomore forward Jaylen Johnson (4), who might not play after injuring his arm against Virginia Tech on Wendesday. Also, Onuaku sat out practice Friday with an illness, but coach Rick Pitino expects him to play.
Assist leaders: Sophomore guard Quentin Snider (3.7), Lewis (2.6)
Notable: Snider, averages just a shade below double figures in scoring at 9.8 ppg. Four players -- freshman guard Donovan Mitchell, Mathiang (who is out), Johnson, and Spalding all average between 5 and 8 ppg.
Lee and Lewis are also strong rebounders for the Cardinals at 3.9 and 3.7 boards per game, respectively.
Best win: 59-41 over Pittsburgh at home a couple weeks ago
Worst win: Louisville managed to get by Wake, 65-57, at home
Other wins: Samford, Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (N.Y.), Saint Louis, Grand Canyon, Eastern Michigan, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Missouri-Kansas City, Utah Valley, N.C. State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Best loss: It's a wash, all the losses were to good teams on the road by single digits: Michigan State, Kentucky, and Clemson.
Obviously, that list of wins isn't that impressive. Pittsburgh was looking good but is sinking a bit. The Cardinals did not have a strong out-of-conference schedule this year aside from the MSU and UK games. Still, the team is looking very strong now and has won two straight ACC games by double digits at home. I am definitely concerned about the Cardinals' rebounding ability, even with Mathiang out. They rank sixth in the country in rebounding margin. Virginia has, at times this year, done a poor job on the defensive boards. Couple that with the possibilities of kickouts to open shooters -- Louisville made 12 3s against the Hokies -- and I'm not feeling too great about this one. Louisville is OK, but not great, on its 3-point percentage (36.8, tied-88th), but as I have pointed out before, UVa has let some otherwise poor 3-point shooting teams make several long-range shots. The Cardinals' best sniper is Snider at 42.6 percent, but Lewis (39.4) and Lee (37.7) take more. Field goal shooting in general is strong for the Cardinals at 49.1 percent (15th).
A part of me wants to believe that the Wake Forest rally really did get the Cavaliers pumped and helped show them what they can do when they bring more consistent energy to the floor. The problem is that urgency was only evident in the closing minutes of the game and Wake is a bad team. That game could very well be the start of the Cavaliers playing better on the road, but that could still mean a loss against the Cardinals, who are looking like the second-best team, along with maybe Miami and Clemson, in the ACC after North Carolina. Virginia, if it were to play all home games, would be in that conversation. But with this game taking place in Louisville, it is tough to envision a victory for Virginia, like I said, even if it does start playing better on the road and more closely resembling the team that plays at JPJ. UVa gets Louisville at JPJ in the regular-season finale on March 5.
Gut feeling: Louisville wins by 10-15 points.
By now, you've most likely seen that the Cavaliers crafted a crazy comeback against Wake Forest on Tuesday. After missing 13 of their 14 3s in the game, Virginia sank four in a row as the Demon Deacons crumbled around them, missing seven free throws in the final minutes. No doubt, despite Wake not being a good team, the rally will go down in Wahoo lore as one of the best ever and for its unlikely finish when Darius Thompson's off-balance heave banked cleanly through the hoop as the buzzer went off, capping Virginia's 18-points-in-83-seconds flurry. But an effort like the Cavs gave for the vast majority of that game likely won't cut it against the Cardinals. The good news is Virginia got its first ACC road win of the season against the Demon Deacons. The bad news is the easier ACC road games -- Virginia Tech (though, admittedly, the Hokies are much improved), Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Wake -- are over, and the more challenging ones are up ahead -- the Cardinals, Pittsburgh, Duke, Clemson, Miami. Here's a more detailed look at Louisville:
Record: 17-3, 6-1
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Damion Lee (17.2), senior guard Trey Lewis (12.7), sophomore center Chinanu Onuaku (10.6)
Leading rebounders: Onuaku (9), junior center Mangok Mathiang (5.7, but he is out until February with a broken foot), freshman forward Ray Spalding (4.3), sophomore forward Jaylen Johnson (4), who might not play after injuring his arm against Virginia Tech on Wendesday. Also, Onuaku sat out practice Friday with an illness, but coach Rick Pitino expects him to play.
Assist leaders: Sophomore guard Quentin Snider (3.7), Lewis (2.6)
Notable: Snider, averages just a shade below double figures in scoring at 9.8 ppg. Four players -- freshman guard Donovan Mitchell, Mathiang (who is out), Johnson, and Spalding all average between 5 and 8 ppg.
Best win: 59-41 over Pittsburgh at home a couple weeks ago
Worst win: Louisville managed to get by Wake, 65-57, at home
Other wins: Samford, Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (N.Y.), Saint Louis, Grand Canyon, Eastern Michigan, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Missouri-Kansas City, Utah Valley, N.C. State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Best loss: It's a wash, all the losses were to good teams on the road by single digits: Michigan State, Kentucky, and Clemson.
Obviously, that list of wins isn't that impressive. Pittsburgh was looking good but is sinking a bit. The Cardinals did not have a strong out-of-conference schedule this year aside from the MSU and UK games. Still, the team is looking very strong now and has won two straight ACC games by double digits at home. I am definitely concerned about the Cardinals' rebounding ability, even with Mathiang out. They rank sixth in the country in rebounding margin. Virginia has, at times this year, done a poor job on the defensive boards. Couple that with the possibilities of kickouts to open shooters -- Louisville made 12 3s against the Hokies -- and I'm not feeling too great about this one. Louisville is OK, but not great, on its 3-point percentage (36.8, tied-88th), but as I have pointed out before, UVa has let some otherwise poor 3-point shooting teams make several long-range shots. The Cardinals' best sniper is Snider at 42.6 percent, but Lewis (39.4) and Lee (37.7) take more. Field goal shooting in general is strong for the Cardinals at 49.1 percent (15th).
A part of me wants to believe that the Wake Forest rally really did get the Cavaliers pumped and helped show them what they can do when they bring more consistent energy to the floor. The problem is that urgency was only evident in the closing minutes of the game and Wake is a bad team. That game could very well be the start of the Cavaliers playing better on the road, but that could still mean a loss against the Cardinals, who are looking like the second-best team, along with maybe Miami and Clemson, in the ACC after North Carolina. Virginia, if it were to play all home games, would be in that conversation. But with this game taking place in Louisville, it is tough to envision a victory for Virginia, like I said, even if it does start playing better on the road and more closely resembling the team that plays at JPJ. UVa gets Louisville at JPJ in the regular-season finale on March 5.
Gut feeling: Louisville wins by 10-15 points.
Comments
Post a Comment