Virginia's defense might be turning a corner just in time.
After some hiccups earlier in the season -- giving up 73 points to George Washington (loss), 66 to a bad George Mason team (win), 70 to Virginia Tech (loss), and 75 to Villanova (win) -- U.Va. has looked much more solid on defense during the five-game win streak it is enjoying. It started with holding a surging Clemson team to 62 points (45.3 percent shooting). After that, the Cavaliers limited Syracuse to 65 points, which is much more impressive when you know that the Orange made 13 3-pointers, but only made 38.9 percent of its shots. I thought U.Va. had good defense on several of the 3-pointers, but Syracuse just made some really difficult shots. The one speed bump during the streak was against Wake Forest, which shot better than 50 percent and scored 71 points. Still, U.Va. won, so the result goes in the good column. But, the defense was shabby. Luckily, after that game, Virginia turned in its best defensive performance all year in holding Louisville to just 47 points on 32.7 percent shooting. The Wahoos followed that up by allowing only 47 again at home Wednesday vs. Boston College (26.5 percent shooting). The Eagles are really bad, but it is impressive that U.Va. wasn't far from holding BC to under 40 points. An 11-0 run by BC at the end of the contest when U.Va. had its "C" team in saved the Eagles from a more embarrassing score.
I say that this possible defensive improvement is coming just in time because Virginia's schedule is about to turn brutal. The Cavaliers are 7-3 in the ACC, good enough for third in the league because of the tie-breaking victory over Clemson. Of Virginia's final eight conference games, five come against teams that are in the top 7 (of 15) in the standings. The other three games are at Duke, which isn't itself but still, it's at Cameron, vs. Virginia Tech, which obviously gave the 'Hoos problems already, and vs. N.C. State, which has just two conference wins but just beat 6-3 Miami and has Anthony Barber, the top scorer in the ACC. So there is something dangerous about every game left on Virginia's schedule.
No. 9 Virginia at Pittsburgh, Noon ACC Network (not currently listed on my channel guide)
The daunting slate begins today at Pittsburgh. You might remember the last time Virginia played at Pittsburgh. It was the appetizer for Super Bowl Sunday two years ago and didn't disappoint. This happened. Virginia was already on a winning streak, but that game kind of announced to the nation the Cavs had arrived, winning on the road against a ranked team on a buzzer beater. I think after that game was when UVa got ranked again for the first time since early in the season. Virginia played another very tight game against the Panthers that season, too, in the ACC tournament semifinals. The Wahoos won, 51-48, going on to of course beat Duke in the title game. Last year, Virginia faced Pitt once, at home, and won, 61-49. The 'Hoos' strengthening defense should have confidence against a team it has held to 45, 48, and 49 points in three meetings with some of the same cast of characters.
Here's more on this year's Panthers:
Record: 17-4, 6-3
Scorers in double figures: Junior forward Michael Young (17) junior forward Jamel Artis (15.5)
Leading rebounders: Young (6.8), junior forward Sheldon Jeter (6.8), Artis (4.5)
Assist leaders: Senior guard James Robinson (5.3), Artis (3.3), Young (3)
Notable: Robinson is just a hair below 10 ppg at 9.9. His scoring average is up a point from last year despite averaging about three fewer minutes. His 3-point percentage (35.2) is also the highest of his career. Jeter averages 8.6 ppg, senior guard Sterling Smith 6.6, and sophomore guard Chris Jones 5.8.
Best win: At Notre Dame, 86-82, in early January
Worst win: Western Carolina is 8-15, but the Panthers only beat the Catamounts by six, 79-73, at home
Dec. 23.
Other wins: St. Joseph's (Ind.), Detroit, Cornell, Kent State, Duquesne, Central Arkansas, Eastern Washington, Morehead State, Davidson, Syracuse, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Best loss: Despite having just four losses, all of Pitt's setbacks have been by double digits. I'll go with a 72-59 loss to then-No. 11 Purdue at home Dec. 1.
Worst loss: Even worse than losing 59-41 at Louisville is losing 78-61 at home against N.C. State.
Other loss: Clemson
What Pittsburgh does well: The Panthers are 33rd in scoring (80.5 ppg), 30th in shooting (47.8), 50th in 3-point shooting (37.6), and fifth in free throw shooting (76.7). They are also strong on the boards, ranking 23rd in rebounding margin (+7.6 per game) and rack up 18.8 assists per game (3rd in the nation) which means they move the ball well. Smith is making 46.7 percent from 3, Artis 37 percent, Robinson 35.3 percent, and Young 33.3 percent. Cameron Johnson also is making 42 percent, but has only attempted 49 3s and is quite at 10 minutes per game.
What Pittsburgh does poorly: The Panthers only allow 66.4 ppg (59th), but if you look at ACC-only stats, Pitt's defense appears headed in the wrong direction. In games against conference opponents, the Panthers are allowing 71.2 ppg (7th in ACC), 47.8 percent field goal shooting (14th), and 41.1 percent on 3-point shooting (15th).
I feel pretty good about this game. Virginia's surge, coupled with defensive improvement, bodes well going against a team that UVa has played well against the last two seasons. Certainly, though, Pittsburgh's offensive numbers give me pause, but a lot of them were recorded against poor out-of-conference competition. And Pitt's defense in ACC play paints a grim picture for the Panthers. If the Cavaliers are on from behind the arc, specifically, they can really take advantage. Virginia ranks first in the ACC in 3-point shooting in all games and in conference-only games (39 percent). Despite the success the last three games against Pitt, these games are close. Even last year's 61-49 game at JPJ was close until UVa pulled away near the end. Still, the vibes I am getting are good.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
After some hiccups earlier in the season -- giving up 73 points to George Washington (loss), 66 to a bad George Mason team (win), 70 to Virginia Tech (loss), and 75 to Villanova (win) -- U.Va. has looked much more solid on defense during the five-game win streak it is enjoying. It started with holding a surging Clemson team to 62 points (45.3 percent shooting). After that, the Cavaliers limited Syracuse to 65 points, which is much more impressive when you know that the Orange made 13 3-pointers, but only made 38.9 percent of its shots. I thought U.Va. had good defense on several of the 3-pointers, but Syracuse just made some really difficult shots. The one speed bump during the streak was against Wake Forest, which shot better than 50 percent and scored 71 points. Still, U.Va. won, so the result goes in the good column. But, the defense was shabby. Luckily, after that game, Virginia turned in its best defensive performance all year in holding Louisville to just 47 points on 32.7 percent shooting. The Wahoos followed that up by allowing only 47 again at home Wednesday vs. Boston College (26.5 percent shooting). The Eagles are really bad, but it is impressive that U.Va. wasn't far from holding BC to under 40 points. An 11-0 run by BC at the end of the contest when U.Va. had its "C" team in saved the Eagles from a more embarrassing score.
I say that this possible defensive improvement is coming just in time because Virginia's schedule is about to turn brutal. The Cavaliers are 7-3 in the ACC, good enough for third in the league because of the tie-breaking victory over Clemson. Of Virginia's final eight conference games, five come against teams that are in the top 7 (of 15) in the standings. The other three games are at Duke, which isn't itself but still, it's at Cameron, vs. Virginia Tech, which obviously gave the 'Hoos problems already, and vs. N.C. State, which has just two conference wins but just beat 6-3 Miami and has Anthony Barber, the top scorer in the ACC. So there is something dangerous about every game left on Virginia's schedule.
No. 9 Virginia at Pittsburgh, Noon ACC Network (not currently listed on my channel guide)
The daunting slate begins today at Pittsburgh. You might remember the last time Virginia played at Pittsburgh. It was the appetizer for Super Bowl Sunday two years ago and didn't disappoint. This happened. Virginia was already on a winning streak, but that game kind of announced to the nation the Cavs had arrived, winning on the road against a ranked team on a buzzer beater. I think after that game was when UVa got ranked again for the first time since early in the season. Virginia played another very tight game against the Panthers that season, too, in the ACC tournament semifinals. The Wahoos won, 51-48, going on to of course beat Duke in the title game. Last year, Virginia faced Pitt once, at home, and won, 61-49. The 'Hoos' strengthening defense should have confidence against a team it has held to 45, 48, and 49 points in three meetings with some of the same cast of characters.
Here's more on this year's Panthers:
Record: 17-4, 6-3
Scorers in double figures: Junior forward Michael Young (17) junior forward Jamel Artis (15.5)
Leading rebounders: Young (6.8), junior forward Sheldon Jeter (6.8), Artis (4.5)
Assist leaders: Senior guard James Robinson (5.3), Artis (3.3), Young (3)
Notable: Robinson is just a hair below 10 ppg at 9.9. His scoring average is up a point from last year despite averaging about three fewer minutes. His 3-point percentage (35.2) is also the highest of his career. Jeter averages 8.6 ppg, senior guard Sterling Smith 6.6, and sophomore guard Chris Jones 5.8.
Best win: At Notre Dame, 86-82, in early January
Worst win: Western Carolina is 8-15, but the Panthers only beat the Catamounts by six, 79-73, at home
Other wins: St. Joseph's (Ind.), Detroit, Cornell, Kent State, Duquesne, Central Arkansas, Eastern Washington, Morehead State, Davidson, Syracuse, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Best loss: Despite having just four losses, all of Pitt's setbacks have been by double digits. I'll go with a 72-59 loss to then-No. 11 Purdue at home Dec. 1.
Worst loss: Even worse than losing 59-41 at Louisville is losing 78-61 at home against N.C. State.
Other loss: Clemson
What Pittsburgh does well: The Panthers are 33rd in scoring (80.5 ppg), 30th in shooting (47.8), 50th in 3-point shooting (37.6), and fifth in free throw shooting (76.7). They are also strong on the boards, ranking 23rd in rebounding margin (+7.6 per game) and rack up 18.8 assists per game (3rd in the nation) which means they move the ball well. Smith is making 46.7 percent from 3, Artis 37 percent, Robinson 35.3 percent, and Young 33.3 percent. Cameron Johnson also is making 42 percent, but has only attempted 49 3s and is quite at 10 minutes per game.
What Pittsburgh does poorly: The Panthers only allow 66.4 ppg (59th), but if you look at ACC-only stats, Pitt's defense appears headed in the wrong direction. In games against conference opponents, the Panthers are allowing 71.2 ppg (7th in ACC), 47.8 percent field goal shooting (14th), and 41.1 percent on 3-point shooting (15th).
I feel pretty good about this game. Virginia's surge, coupled with defensive improvement, bodes well going against a team that UVa has played well against the last two seasons. Certainly, though, Pittsburgh's offensive numbers give me pause, but a lot of them were recorded against poor out-of-conference competition. And Pitt's defense in ACC play paints a grim picture for the Panthers. If the Cavaliers are on from behind the arc, specifically, they can really take advantage. Virginia ranks first in the ACC in 3-point shooting in all games and in conference-only games (39 percent). Despite the success the last three games against Pitt, these games are close. Even last year's 61-49 game at JPJ was close until UVa pulled away near the end. Still, the vibes I am getting are good.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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