No. 7 North Carolina at No. 3 Virginia, 6:30 p.m. ESPN
After the Louisville win at the end of January, I wrote that big games were becoming routine for the Cavaliers. They knew how to get ready for top-25 teams and they knew how to perform in those contests.
That was my inkling. My suspicions were given some credence in a Richmond Times-Dispatch article before Monday's Miami game. London Perrantes said of the team's preparations for big games: "Now, it's just regular to us. We don't want to overhype anything. We have some experience in big games. I think with how the ACC's going this year, and how well everybody's playing, every game is a big game. And I feel like we had a very tough schedule, non-conference. So there's been, from start to the finish, a lot of big games."
The Cavaliers' 4-0 record against the top 25 (Duke wasn't actually ranked when UVa lost in Durham) was finally given a blemish when they lost to the Hurricanes, 64-61. But, like Perrantes said, the big games continue for the 'Hoos.
This time, Virginia hosts North Carolina in a top-10 matchup televised on ESPN with "College GameDay" in attendance. The pregame show, which starts at 11 a.m. on ESPN, visited John Paul Jones Arena for the first time in U.Va. history last year for the Wahoos' matchup with Duke. The Blue Devils won, 69-63, with a barrage of 3-pointers in the closing minutes to overcome an 11-point deficit. Virginia has won 18 straight at home since, and is 33-1 in ACC home games since the 2012-13 season. So let's hope the Cavs can make it to 1-1 when "GameDay" is in attendance.
Virginia is getting used to huge games and this is another example. This week, Malcolm Brogdon said the team did just "OK" in getting ready for last year's game with Duke. "I don't think it was good enough," he told The Times-Dispatch. Now, he said, they have experienced GameDay before and won't let it distract them as much this time around.
The game itself is very big, yes, but three years ago, the implications would have loomed even larger for the Wahoos. That is when the team was needing every top-25 win it could get its hands on to build its NCAA tournament resume. Now, UVa doesn't have to worry about that.
That said, though, these big games now are becoming important for other reasons. Positioning in March is becoming critical if Virginia wants to make runs in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. For instance, last year, Virginia stumbled a bit down the stretch in the regular season and ACC tournament, finishing 29-3 before March Madness after starting 19-0. Had UVa beaten Duke in the regular season, it might have gotten the final No. 1 seed in the Big Dance over the Blue Devils, which ended up getting it. Instead, Virginia was a No. 2 seed and, guess what, ran into a hot Michigan State team for the second season in a row, losing in the round of 32. Duke won the title. As a No. 1 seed, Virginia maybe could have avoided MSU and gotten who knows how far in the tournament.
So, UVa isn't dealing with trying to get into the tournament today, but, down the line, this win or this loss to UNC could be a harbinger of things to come and bring its own set of consequences.
Here's more on the Tar Heels:
Record: 23-5, 12-3
Scorers in double figures: Senior forward Brice Johnson (17), sophomore forward Justin Jackson (12.4), senior guard Marcus Paige (12.3), sophomore guard Joel Berry II (11.9), junior forward Kennedy Meeks
(10)
Leading rebounders: Johnson (10.6), Meeks (6.1), junior forward Isaiah Hicks (4.6), Jackson (4)
Assist leaders: Berry II (3.9), Paige (3.5), Jackson (3.3), sophomore forward Theo Pinson (3)
Notable: Hicks averages 9.4 points, and then two other players average more than 5 points: junior guard Nate Britt (6.3) and Pinson (5.1). After a strong starting five, UNC's scoring falls off pretty drastically. Eight players average double figure minutes, with five of those averaging between 20-31 minutes.
Best win: Last Saturday, UNC devastated Miami at home, 96-71.
Worst win: Easy. UNC scraped by a terrible Boston College team, 68-65, on the road just 11 days before the Heels' best showing against the Hurricanes. BC led deep into the second half.
Other wins: Temple, Fairfield, Wofford, Northwestern, Kansas State, Maryland, Davidson, Tulane, UCLA, Appalachian State, UNC Greensboro, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse, N.C. State (twice), Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Boston College at home, Pittsburgh
Best loss: Notre Dame and Texas are both very solid teams UNC lost to on the road by a combined six points.
Worst loss: At Northern Iowa, 71-67, way back in November. The Panthers are just 18-12 now.
Other losses: Louisville, Duke
What North Carolina does well: Score, score, score. Like lots of Virginia's games, this one pits the defensively minded Cavaliers against a team that likes to quicken the pace and score a ton of baskets. UNC is ninth in the nation in scoring at 83.8 ppg. Virginia has slowly lowered its points per game allowed to third best in the country at 59.7 ppg. The Tar Heels shoot well in a couple respects (in another they don't, but that will be covered later). They shoot 48.3 percent (21st in the nation) from the field and 73.7 percent (41st) from the free throw line. They move the ball well, too, dishing out 18.5 assists per game (fifth). North Carolina's overall defensive look isn't awesome, but it does collect 6.9 steals per game (tied-83rd) and block 4.6 shots per game (55th). UNC is strong on the glass, too, owning a +7.9 rebounding margin (18th).
What North Carolina does poorly: Shoot the 3. UNC ranks last in the ACC and 299th in the nation at 31.4 percent from beyond the arc. UNC has three guys, though, that play major minutes that shoot better than 34 percent from behind the arc: Paige, Britt, and Berry II, who leads the team at 36.8 percent. UNC also gives up 70.3 ppg (139th).
Why Virginia should not be worried: Since the Wake Forest miracle, UVa has gone 5-2, with the only two losses coming on the road by a combined four points. In both of those games, Virginia barely lost, but it felt like UVa didn't play near its potential. A little-better-than-normal home outing should do the trick against the Tar Heels. I don't think UVa needs to bring its best game of the season to win, but will need to play better than it did against Duke and Miami. Malcolm Brogdon has been feeling it recently, going for 20 or more points in seven of the past 10 games, and he can will the team to win. And the Cavs usually get more scoring from everyone else at home. So if he has an "A" game, winning seems like it would be close to a certainty. Also, Virginia leads the ACC in 3-point percentage, and UNC is 278th in the nation in 3-point percentage defense (36.8). That spells lots of attempts for London Perrantes, who spurs the offense along when he is shooting. He leads the ACC in 3-point percentage (52.5 percent), more than 5 percent clear of second place. Did I mention the game is at home? Virginia just plays well at JPJ. The crowd should be the best of the season and it will be loud. Any slight edge UVa starts to take could be multiplied by the pulsating crowd. UVa has beaten UNC two times in a row at home.
Why Virginia should be worried: UVa has beaten UNC twice in a row at home, but this Tar Heels team is a lot better than those versions. They seem to be figuring stuff out at the end of the season. It's been typical of Roy Williams' teams to start to get it together late in the year recently and this squad looks like it might be no exception. Recent evidence of a surge includes the thrashing of Miami and the 80-68 win at N.C. State in UNC's last game when it was behind 23-10 early. Paige has had a down year when he expected to challenge for ACC player of the year, but can go off at any time. Jackson killed UVa the last time these two teams played (ACC tournament semifinals last season, 71-67 win for the Heels) and Meeks is a load down low. Injuries are a concern for UVa. Evan Nolte has a toe injury and did not face Miami. Isaiah Wilkins got whacked in the head at Miami and has been going through concussion protocol. Injuries have not been an issue this season for the Cavaliers but those two could be significant in one of the biggest games of the year. Nolte, while his scoring has been down, has proven to be a reliable defender, and Wilkins has started to show the potential that Darion Atkins and Akil Mitchell did defensively as they got later into their careers. Both players could be major losses for UVa against a team that relies on scoring under the basket and on 2-pointers. This week, coach Tony Bennett didn't have much to say about their statuses other than they were day-to-day. Either or both playing could give a nice boost to the Virginia cause.
Carolina, for all its talent, shows its relative youth sometimes. You don't know what team you are going to get. The one that almost lost to BC, one of the worst ACC teams in history? The one that built a lead on Duke and was in control the whole way? The one that then crumpled down the stretch against the Blue Devils and lost? Or the one that turned the Hurricanes into a few rain drops? The best UNC team could win this game, no doubt. The so-so UNC team could lose by 10 points. This is one of Williams' more veteran teams recently, however, so I can see these Heels showing more moxie down the stretch than other versions. Which UNC team shows up? Which Anthony Gill shows up for that matter? I haven't mentioned him yet in my ramblings, but he's worth a few sentences. He scored at least 10 points the first 22 games of the season. The five since? At least 10 points just twice. He went a combined 8 of 24 in the games against Pittsburgh, N.C. State, and Miami. Virginia needs the good Gill to please show up. When the trio of Brogdon, Perrantes, and Gill are on, the Wahoos are darn near impossible to beat.
UNC's explosiveness makes me nervous, as do the injuries to Nolte and Wilkins. The Tar Heels look like they are turning the corner into a true national title contender. But I just think UVa is going to come out with right mindset and finish what it started last year against Duke. The Cavs will be hungry and I expect it to show.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
After the Louisville win at the end of January, I wrote that big games were becoming routine for the Cavaliers. They knew how to get ready for top-25 teams and they knew how to perform in those contests.
That was my inkling. My suspicions were given some credence in a Richmond Times-Dispatch article before Monday's Miami game. London Perrantes said of the team's preparations for big games: "Now, it's just regular to us. We don't want to overhype anything. We have some experience in big games. I think with how the ACC's going this year, and how well everybody's playing, every game is a big game. And I feel like we had a very tough schedule, non-conference. So there's been, from start to the finish, a lot of big games."
The Cavaliers' 4-0 record against the top 25 (Duke wasn't actually ranked when UVa lost in Durham) was finally given a blemish when they lost to the Hurricanes, 64-61. But, like Perrantes said, the big games continue for the 'Hoos.
This time, Virginia hosts North Carolina in a top-10 matchup televised on ESPN with "College GameDay" in attendance. The pregame show, which starts at 11 a.m. on ESPN, visited John Paul Jones Arena for the first time in U.Va. history last year for the Wahoos' matchup with Duke. The Blue Devils won, 69-63, with a barrage of 3-pointers in the closing minutes to overcome an 11-point deficit. Virginia has won 18 straight at home since, and is 33-1 in ACC home games since the 2012-13 season. So let's hope the Cavs can make it to 1-1 when "GameDay" is in attendance.
Virginia is getting used to huge games and this is another example. This week, Malcolm Brogdon said the team did just "OK" in getting ready for last year's game with Duke. "I don't think it was good enough," he told The Times-Dispatch. Now, he said, they have experienced GameDay before and won't let it distract them as much this time around.
The game itself is very big, yes, but three years ago, the implications would have loomed even larger for the Wahoos. That is when the team was needing every top-25 win it could get its hands on to build its NCAA tournament resume. Now, UVa doesn't have to worry about that.
That said, though, these big games now are becoming important for other reasons. Positioning in March is becoming critical if Virginia wants to make runs in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. For instance, last year, Virginia stumbled a bit down the stretch in the regular season and ACC tournament, finishing 29-3 before March Madness after starting 19-0. Had UVa beaten Duke in the regular season, it might have gotten the final No. 1 seed in the Big Dance over the Blue Devils, which ended up getting it. Instead, Virginia was a No. 2 seed and, guess what, ran into a hot Michigan State team for the second season in a row, losing in the round of 32. Duke won the title. As a No. 1 seed, Virginia maybe could have avoided MSU and gotten who knows how far in the tournament.
So, UVa isn't dealing with trying to get into the tournament today, but, down the line, this win or this loss to UNC could be a harbinger of things to come and bring its own set of consequences.
Here's more on the Tar Heels:
Record: 23-5, 12-3
Scorers in double figures: Senior forward Brice Johnson (17), sophomore forward Justin Jackson (12.4), senior guard Marcus Paige (12.3), sophomore guard Joel Berry II (11.9), junior forward Kennedy Meeks
Leading rebounders: Johnson (10.6), Meeks (6.1), junior forward Isaiah Hicks (4.6), Jackson (4)
Assist leaders: Berry II (3.9), Paige (3.5), Jackson (3.3), sophomore forward Theo Pinson (3)
Notable: Hicks averages 9.4 points, and then two other players average more than 5 points: junior guard Nate Britt (6.3) and Pinson (5.1). After a strong starting five, UNC's scoring falls off pretty drastically. Eight players average double figure minutes, with five of those averaging between 20-31 minutes.
Best win: Last Saturday, UNC devastated Miami at home, 96-71.
Worst win: Easy. UNC scraped by a terrible Boston College team, 68-65, on the road just 11 days before the Heels' best showing against the Hurricanes. BC led deep into the second half.
Other wins: Temple, Fairfield, Wofford, Northwestern, Kansas State, Maryland, Davidson, Tulane, UCLA, Appalachian State, UNC Greensboro, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse, N.C. State (twice), Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Boston College at home, Pittsburgh
Best loss: Notre Dame and Texas are both very solid teams UNC lost to on the road by a combined six points.
Worst loss: At Northern Iowa, 71-67, way back in November. The Panthers are just 18-12 now.
Other losses: Louisville, Duke
What North Carolina does well: Score, score, score. Like lots of Virginia's games, this one pits the defensively minded Cavaliers against a team that likes to quicken the pace and score a ton of baskets. UNC is ninth in the nation in scoring at 83.8 ppg. Virginia has slowly lowered its points per game allowed to third best in the country at 59.7 ppg. The Tar Heels shoot well in a couple respects (in another they don't, but that will be covered later). They shoot 48.3 percent (21st in the nation) from the field and 73.7 percent (41st) from the free throw line. They move the ball well, too, dishing out 18.5 assists per game (fifth). North Carolina's overall defensive look isn't awesome, but it does collect 6.9 steals per game (tied-83rd) and block 4.6 shots per game (55th). UNC is strong on the glass, too, owning a +7.9 rebounding margin (18th).
What North Carolina does poorly: Shoot the 3. UNC ranks last in the ACC and 299th in the nation at 31.4 percent from beyond the arc. UNC has three guys, though, that play major minutes that shoot better than 34 percent from behind the arc: Paige, Britt, and Berry II, who leads the team at 36.8 percent. UNC also gives up 70.3 ppg (139th).
Why Virginia should not be worried: Since the Wake Forest miracle, UVa has gone 5-2, with the only two losses coming on the road by a combined four points. In both of those games, Virginia barely lost, but it felt like UVa didn't play near its potential. A little-better-than-normal home outing should do the trick against the Tar Heels. I don't think UVa needs to bring its best game of the season to win, but will need to play better than it did against Duke and Miami. Malcolm Brogdon has been feeling it recently, going for 20 or more points in seven of the past 10 games, and he can will the team to win. And the Cavs usually get more scoring from everyone else at home. So if he has an "A" game, winning seems like it would be close to a certainty. Also, Virginia leads the ACC in 3-point percentage, and UNC is 278th in the nation in 3-point percentage defense (36.8). That spells lots of attempts for London Perrantes, who spurs the offense along when he is shooting. He leads the ACC in 3-point percentage (52.5 percent), more than 5 percent clear of second place. Did I mention the game is at home? Virginia just plays well at JPJ. The crowd should be the best of the season and it will be loud. Any slight edge UVa starts to take could be multiplied by the pulsating crowd. UVa has beaten UNC two times in a row at home.
Why Virginia should be worried: UVa has beaten UNC twice in a row at home, but this Tar Heels team is a lot better than those versions. They seem to be figuring stuff out at the end of the season. It's been typical of Roy Williams' teams to start to get it together late in the year recently and this squad looks like it might be no exception. Recent evidence of a surge includes the thrashing of Miami and the 80-68 win at N.C. State in UNC's last game when it was behind 23-10 early. Paige has had a down year when he expected to challenge for ACC player of the year, but can go off at any time. Jackson killed UVa the last time these two teams played (ACC tournament semifinals last season, 71-67 win for the Heels) and Meeks is a load down low. Injuries are a concern for UVa. Evan Nolte has a toe injury and did not face Miami. Isaiah Wilkins got whacked in the head at Miami and has been going through concussion protocol. Injuries have not been an issue this season for the Cavaliers but those two could be significant in one of the biggest games of the year. Nolte, while his scoring has been down, has proven to be a reliable defender, and Wilkins has started to show the potential that Darion Atkins and Akil Mitchell did defensively as they got later into their careers. Both players could be major losses for UVa against a team that relies on scoring under the basket and on 2-pointers. This week, coach Tony Bennett didn't have much to say about their statuses other than they were day-to-day. Either or both playing could give a nice boost to the Virginia cause.
Carolina, for all its talent, shows its relative youth sometimes. You don't know what team you are going to get. The one that almost lost to BC, one of the worst ACC teams in history? The one that built a lead on Duke and was in control the whole way? The one that then crumpled down the stretch against the Blue Devils and lost? Or the one that turned the Hurricanes into a few rain drops? The best UNC team could win this game, no doubt. The so-so UNC team could lose by 10 points. This is one of Williams' more veteran teams recently, however, so I can see these Heels showing more moxie down the stretch than other versions. Which UNC team shows up? Which Anthony Gill shows up for that matter? I haven't mentioned him yet in my ramblings, but he's worth a few sentences. He scored at least 10 points the first 22 games of the season. The five since? At least 10 points just twice. He went a combined 8 of 24 in the games against Pittsburgh, N.C. State, and Miami. Virginia needs the good Gill to please show up. When the trio of Brogdon, Perrantes, and Gill are on, the Wahoos are darn near impossible to beat.
UNC's explosiveness makes me nervous, as do the injuries to Nolte and Wilkins. The Tar Heels look like they are turning the corner into a true national title contender. But I just think UVa is going to come out with right mindset and finish what it started last year against Duke. The Cavs will be hungry and I expect it to show.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Comments
Post a Comment