No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 4 Iowa State in Chicago, 7:10 p.m. CBS
The wait since Saturday, which seemed longer than it is, is about over. The Cavaliers and Cyclones face off tonight in Chicago with an Elite Eight berth on the line. Here's more on Iowa State:
Record: 23-11, 10-8 Big 12; lost in Big 12 tournament quarterfinals
Scorers in double figures: Senior forward Georges Niang (20.2), junior guard Monte Morris (13.9), senior forward Abdel Nader (13.2), senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long (12), senior forward Jameel McKay (11.3), junior guard Matt Thomas (10.9)
Leading rebounders: McKay (9), Niang (6.2), Nader (5), Thomas (4.5), junior guard Deonte Burton (4), Morris (4)
Assist leaders: Morris (6.9), Niang (3.3), Mitrou-Long (1.9)
Notable: Burton averages 9.6 points. Like Duke, Iowa State doesn't play many players this year, Only one other player, Hallice Cooke, averages double-figure minutes. He averages 2.7 points.
Best win: The Cyclones beat then-No. 1 Oklahoma, 82-77, at home Jan. 18.
Worst win: TCU and Oklahoma State finished 12-21 and 12-20, respectively, but the Cyclones only beat them both by single digits at home.
Other wins: Colorado, Chicago State, Chattanooga, Virginia Tech, Illinois, North Dakota State, Buffalo, Iowa, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cincinnati, Coppin State, Texas Tech, Kansas State (twice), TCU (road), Oklahoma State (road), Kansas, Texas, Iona (NCAA first round), Arkansas-Little Rock (NCAA second round)
Best loss: ISU lost by just four at Oklahoma, which was ranked No. 3 at the time, and by just seven at Kansas, which was ranked No. 1.
Worst loss: Baylor was unranked Jan. 9, but beat then-No. 13 Iowa State at Iowa State, 94-89.
Other losses: Northern Iowa, Baylor (road), Texas, Texas A&M, West Virginia (twice), Texas Tech, Oklahoma (Big 12 tournament)
What Iowa State does well: The Cyclones can score at an impressive clip, 82.1 ppg, which ranks them 14th in the country. For comparison, that is two spots ahead of Duke and two spots behind North Carolina. Oakland, which UVa beat this year but of course competes in a weaker conference, is first at 86.3 ppg. It would follow, then, that the Cyclones can shoot well and this is indeed true. In fact, ISU is the best-shooting team UVa has faced this year at 50.3 percent, third in the country. UVa is at 49.1 percent, seventh in the country, making the Cavaliers the second-best shooting team the Cyclones have faced behind Kansas (fifth). ISU shoots 38.6 percent from beyond the arc (23rd, UVa is 10th), but isn't the best free throw shooting team. You would think the Cyclones would be a decent amount above 70 percent with shooting like that, but they are just at 70.3 percent from the stripe (156th; UVa is 16th). ISU takes care of the ball pretty well, with only 11 turnovers per game (56th), and also passes well, dishing out 16.5 assists per game (22nd).
What Iowa State doesn't do well: The Cyclones don't turn it over much, but also don't force a lot of turnovers. They end up with just a +.9 turnover margin, which ranks 119th. But both Virginia and Iowa State rank in the top 25 in assist-turnover ratio. Virginia has an advantage on the boards, with ISU slightly in the minus on rebounding margin (-.2), while UVa is at +3.8. ISU doesn't play the tightest defense, giving up 74.7 ppg (248th; UVa is third) on 43.5 percent shooting (175th; UVa is 88th).
I definitely have not watched Iowa State much, but in totality, I see a team with a very high ceiling with some
consistency and depth issues. The offense is national-championship caliber, and Niang is an All-American who is good enough to score down low, slash to the basket, and make from 3 (39 percent). The defense isn't great, and the Cyclones do not go deep, perhaps leaving them susceptible to being gassed some games, especially given they do prefer an up-tempo style. UVa, of course, likes to slow things down. That could actually help ISU not get tired, but I don't think UVa should go out and run with the Cyclones. That would play into their hands. Hopefully, UVa can slow down ISU's transition game and frustrate the Cyclones some in the first half, then maybe run a little bit down the stretch to tire them out, push the issue, and make them rush at the end of the game. That is essentially what happened at the end of the Butler game, though the Bulldogs were probably more willing to slow it down in the first half than ISU will be. It's worth noting that Oklahoma State rated very slow in tempo this season, too, and, despite being a bad team, held ISU to two of its lowest point totals of the season (64 and 58).
ISU's shooting and scoring prowess remind me of Duke and UNC (3-point numbers similar to Duke, overall more like UNC). In three games, Virginia held those three teams to 66 ppg. I think a realistic target UVa needs to get to is 75 points to have a 50-50 chance, hopefully better, of winning. One thing Virginia does well against up-tempo teams is force them to shoot quick, bad shots. It worries me a little that those teams are usually not as good at shooting as ISU is. So some quick makes early in the shot clock could backfire on UVa and give ISU confidence early in the game.
One of the hot topics among UVa fans this week has been who will guard Niang? At 6-8, he is a very tough
matchup. It would not shock anybody to see Malcolm Brogdon on him late in the game if UVa is in need of stops and Niang is playing well. Brogdon has slowed down or stopped lots of team's top players this season. But I think Isaiah Wilkins will get the first crack. With a week of preparation, he should be more ready than he was against Butler's Andrew Chrabascz. I think there is something to be said for someone sneaking up like that, too. No one expected 25 points out of Chrabascz last week. Every Virginia player knows Niang is capable of that, though, so anyone who might have to defend him knows what they are in for. It is interesting to note that in some losses this season, Niang had some of his best totals. Of course, he probably tried to carry his team in those setbacks, but perhaps Tony Bennett could choose to let Niang get his, and then lock down on everyone else, a little bit like UVa did against Jaron Blossomgame of Clemson, who went for more than half of Clemson's points when UVa won that game on the road. But, Niang has a better supporting cast than Blossomgame.
Morris (36.9) and Nader (37) can both shoot well from beyond the arc, as can Thomas (43.3) and Burton (45.9). UVa has had the misfortune this year of letting players have breakout games, and Burton could be a candidate, seeing as he is the most accurate 3-point shooter on the team, but has only made 17 this year (about one every two games).
Virginia's big three -- Brogdon, London Perrantes, and Anthony Gill -- must play well in pretty much every game at this point to give UVa a chance. But again, it could come down to role players and the bench, especially in a game where the other team doesn't go that deep. I think UVa outscored Butler 22-7 in bench points. A similar-type performance from guys like Mike Tobey, Marial Shayok, and Darius Thompson will give UVa a great chance to win. Virginia has the potential to do some damage down low I believe as ISU is fairly small with McKay at 6-9 (and just 215 pounds, whereas Gill and Wilkins for UVa are listed at 230) and Niang at 6-8 (but he's listed at 6-7 other places and prefers to hang outside it seems) as the taller players who see the most minutes. The other high-minute players on ISU are between 6-2 and 6-6. Of course, the flip side of that is UVa might need to counter at times with four guards to be quicker. Luckily, the Cavaliers have gone that route this year and used it successfully, including just last week vs. the Bulldogs.
Something to keep in mind that isn't always something you think about in the NCAA tournament is the site. When the bracket came out, it was pointed out how Chicago would be much more of a home game for Michigan State than Virginia. The Spartans' campus in East Lansing, Mich., is a little more than three hours away from the United Center. Well, MSU was knocked out, but ISU is almost as close. Ames, Iowa, is about five hours away, much closer than UVa. I have no doubt there will be a big contingent of Cavaliers fans there, but it is definitely going to be more like a road game than a home game.
I'm hoping that the combo of Iowa State's shaky defense, UVa's stout defense -- probably the best the Cyclones have seen this year -- and the Cavaliers' better depth win out in a close game that UVa takes over near the end.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
The wait since Saturday, which seemed longer than it is, is about over. The Cavaliers and Cyclones face off tonight in Chicago with an Elite Eight berth on the line. Here's more on Iowa State:
Record: 23-11, 10-8 Big 12; lost in Big 12 tournament quarterfinals
Scorers in double figures: Senior forward Georges Niang (20.2), junior guard Monte Morris (13.9), senior forward Abdel Nader (13.2), senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long (12), senior forward Jameel McKay (11.3), junior guard Matt Thomas (10.9)
Leading rebounders: McKay (9), Niang (6.2), Nader (5), Thomas (4.5), junior guard Deonte Burton (4), Morris (4)
Assist leaders: Morris (6.9), Niang (3.3), Mitrou-Long (1.9)
Notable: Burton averages 9.6 points. Like Duke, Iowa State doesn't play many players this year, Only one other player, Hallice Cooke, averages double-figure minutes. He averages 2.7 points.
Best win: The Cyclones beat then-No. 1 Oklahoma, 82-77, at home Jan. 18.
Worst win: TCU and Oklahoma State finished 12-21 and 12-20, respectively, but the Cyclones only beat them both by single digits at home.
Other wins: Colorado, Chicago State, Chattanooga, Virginia Tech, Illinois, North Dakota State, Buffalo, Iowa, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cincinnati, Coppin State, Texas Tech, Kansas State (twice), TCU (road), Oklahoma State (road), Kansas, Texas, Iona (NCAA first round), Arkansas-Little Rock (NCAA second round)
Best loss: ISU lost by just four at Oklahoma, which was ranked No. 3 at the time, and by just seven at Kansas, which was ranked No. 1.
Worst loss: Baylor was unranked Jan. 9, but beat then-No. 13 Iowa State at Iowa State, 94-89.
Other losses: Northern Iowa, Baylor (road), Texas, Texas A&M, West Virginia (twice), Texas Tech, Oklahoma (Big 12 tournament)
What Iowa State does well: The Cyclones can score at an impressive clip, 82.1 ppg, which ranks them 14th in the country. For comparison, that is two spots ahead of Duke and two spots behind North Carolina. Oakland, which UVa beat this year but of course competes in a weaker conference, is first at 86.3 ppg. It would follow, then, that the Cyclones can shoot well and this is indeed true. In fact, ISU is the best-shooting team UVa has faced this year at 50.3 percent, third in the country. UVa is at 49.1 percent, seventh in the country, making the Cavaliers the second-best shooting team the Cyclones have faced behind Kansas (fifth). ISU shoots 38.6 percent from beyond the arc (23rd, UVa is 10th), but isn't the best free throw shooting team. You would think the Cyclones would be a decent amount above 70 percent with shooting like that, but they are just at 70.3 percent from the stripe (156th; UVa is 16th). ISU takes care of the ball pretty well, with only 11 turnovers per game (56th), and also passes well, dishing out 16.5 assists per game (22nd).
What Iowa State doesn't do well: The Cyclones don't turn it over much, but also don't force a lot of turnovers. They end up with just a +.9 turnover margin, which ranks 119th. But both Virginia and Iowa State rank in the top 25 in assist-turnover ratio. Virginia has an advantage on the boards, with ISU slightly in the minus on rebounding margin (-.2), while UVa is at +3.8. ISU doesn't play the tightest defense, giving up 74.7 ppg (248th; UVa is third) on 43.5 percent shooting (175th; UVa is 88th).
I definitely have not watched Iowa State much, but in totality, I see a team with a very high ceiling with some
ISU's shooting and scoring prowess remind me of Duke and UNC (3-point numbers similar to Duke, overall more like UNC). In three games, Virginia held those three teams to 66 ppg. I think a realistic target UVa needs to get to is 75 points to have a 50-50 chance, hopefully better, of winning. One thing Virginia does well against up-tempo teams is force them to shoot quick, bad shots. It worries me a little that those teams are usually not as good at shooting as ISU is. So some quick makes early in the shot clock could backfire on UVa and give ISU confidence early in the game.
One of the hot topics among UVa fans this week has been who will guard Niang? At 6-8, he is a very tough
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| Georges Niang is a superb player who can score in multiple ways for Iowa State. |
Morris (36.9) and Nader (37) can both shoot well from beyond the arc, as can Thomas (43.3) and Burton (45.9). UVa has had the misfortune this year of letting players have breakout games, and Burton could be a candidate, seeing as he is the most accurate 3-point shooter on the team, but has only made 17 this year (about one every two games).
Virginia's big three -- Brogdon, London Perrantes, and Anthony Gill -- must play well in pretty much every game at this point to give UVa a chance. But again, it could come down to role players and the bench, especially in a game where the other team doesn't go that deep. I think UVa outscored Butler 22-7 in bench points. A similar-type performance from guys like Mike Tobey, Marial Shayok, and Darius Thompson will give UVa a great chance to win. Virginia has the potential to do some damage down low I believe as ISU is fairly small with McKay at 6-9 (and just 215 pounds, whereas Gill and Wilkins for UVa are listed at 230) and Niang at 6-8 (but he's listed at 6-7 other places and prefers to hang outside it seems) as the taller players who see the most minutes. The other high-minute players on ISU are between 6-2 and 6-6. Of course, the flip side of that is UVa might need to counter at times with four guards to be quicker. Luckily, the Cavaliers have gone that route this year and used it successfully, including just last week vs. the Bulldogs.
Something to keep in mind that isn't always something you think about in the NCAA tournament is the site. When the bracket came out, it was pointed out how Chicago would be much more of a home game for Michigan State than Virginia. The Spartans' campus in East Lansing, Mich., is a little more than three hours away from the United Center. Well, MSU was knocked out, but ISU is almost as close. Ames, Iowa, is about five hours away, much closer than UVa. I have no doubt there will be a big contingent of Cavaliers fans there, but it is definitely going to be more like a road game than a home game.
I'm hoping that the combo of Iowa State's shaky defense, UVa's stout defense -- probably the best the Cyclones have seen this year -- and the Cavaliers' better depth win out in a close game that UVa takes over near the end.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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