College football picks

Last week: 7-0 Overall: 47-21

Note: Rankings this week reflect the newly released College Football Playoff standings.

Georgia Tech at No. 21 North Carolina, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
After three straight wins to begin the year, the Yellow Jackets lost three straight. They've gotten back on track with wins over Georgia Southern and Duke the past two weeks to get one victory away from bowl eligibility. It's a far cry from last year's 3-9 record, but a sixth win is far from guaranteed, and I don't think it will be happening at UNC, which has just one loss -- in a monsoon to Virginia Tech -- since losing to Georgia in Week 1. Mostly, the Tar Heels have turned up their offense this year, and I expect them to get it going against Georgia Tech. Having two weeks to prepare for the Jackets' spread-option offense should help, too.
North Carolina 41, Georgia Tech 34

Pittsburgh at Miami, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network (look for this and the above game on local stations in the Cville area -- one for sure will be on NBC29)
Well, things were going swimmingly for former Georgia coach Mark Richt in his first season at Miami. And then the past four games happened. The Hurricanes began the year beating Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, and Georgia Tech. Since, they've lost to Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame, which had lost four of five. Three of these four losses for the Hurricanes came by a combined 11 points, so they aren't far from being anywhere from 5-3 to 7-1. The Panthers, 5-3, have been more impressive recently, and last Thursday were a couple of bad breaks away from topping Virginia Tech in Pittsburgh. This game is pretty much a toss-up, but I actually give the Panthers the slight edge.
Pittsburgh 34, Miami 31

No. 19 Virginia Tech at Duke, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
Virginia Tech is in the driver's seat for the ACC Coastal after edging Pittsburgh last Thursday night. The Hokies are tied with North Carolina in the conference at 4-1, but own the tiebreaker with their 34-3 win at Chapel Hill. As long as the Hokies focus each week, the division, and a date with Clemson or Louisville in the ACC title game, should be theirs. Tech has won two in a row after a surprising loss at Syracuse. Duke is winless in the conference and has less firepower than the Orange offense. Tech should win this going away, though Duke has lost close games recently to Georgia Tech and even Louisville.
Virginia Tech 34, Duke 20

No. 22 Florida State at N.C. State, 7 p.m. ESPN
Wow. In mid-October, N.C. State was 4-1 and had a 33-yard field goal to win at Clemson. It was shanked, and State lost in overtime. Now the Wolfpack has lost three straight and are 4-4, very much in danger of not going to a bowl. Fans are calling for third-year coach Dave Doeren's head. The Clemson loss was a heartbreaker, and the setback the next week against Louisville was expected, but then last week, the 'Pack handed Boston College its first ACC win in 12 games. Not good. This is a big moment for the Wolfpack at home in primetime, but Florida State might prove too difficult a foe, as long as the Seminoles rebound from a tough home loss to Clemson last week. FSU is just a handful of plays away from being 7-1 and might be a little overrated, actually. The 'Noles need to be careful, with State perhaps having more motivation to win this, but I like FSU.
Florida State 31, N.C. State 24

No. 1 Alabama at No. 13 LSU, 8 p.m. CBS
The Crimson Tide is the clear No. 1 in the land right now, but the Tigers are 3-0 since firing Les Miles after their loss to Auburn. Those wins came over Missouri, Southern Miss, and Ole Miss, though, who are a combined 10-14. Alabama has been on an absolute roll since an early hiccup against Ole Miss when it got behind, 24-3, but won, 48-43. Since, the Tide has not lost a game by fewer than 19 points. Death Valley against a fired up LSU squad which has found a little bit of footing under interim coach Ed Orgeron is a tough draw, but Alabama should win.
Alabama 30, LSU 20

No. 10 Nebraska at No. 6 Ohio State, 8 p.m. ABC
The Cornhuskers acquitted themselves well last week in their first real test, but did end up losing, 23-17, at Wisconsin, knocking them from the ranks of the unbeaten. It doesn't get any easier this week at the Buckeyes, who rebounded from an upset loss at Penn State two weeks ago by struggling but beating Northwestern at home, 24-20. I think this will be a close game but I like OSU in The Horseshoe."
Ohio State 27, Nebraska 23

Virginia at Wake Forest, 3 p.m. CSN
Ugh. All Virginia needed was one more play, one more capitalization on a Louisville turnover, a couple more stops, and it could've knocked off the No. 5 team in the country. One of the key points in the game for me was probably when UVa got up 17-7, and then Quin Blanding intercepted Lamar Jackson on the ensuing possession, setting up the Cavaliers in the red zone. With a chance to go up 24-7 with a TD, Sam Hayward missed a field goal instead, a big break for the Cardinals. Another big spot was when Virginia still held a 17-14 lead. Kurt Benkert threw an interception that was returned by Louisville to Virginia's 12. That score to go up 21-17 was just too easy for the Cardinals. But, no need to keep rehashing what could have been. If you watched the game, you know what I mean. I couldn't believe the fourth-and-3 play on Louisville's winning drive when Jackson's throw for the first down barely went in between two Cavaliers' defender arms. And it was definitely an effort worth watching, and if you have the time, the replay is available on ESPN.com.

Chalk it up there next to the near upset of Notre Dame last season in Charlottesville. Hopefully, and it is easier said than done, the guys can put the devastating loss behind them and instead move on knowing what they are capable of. This team has been believing and pushing all year for a breakthrough. Unfortunately, there have been more roadblocks than successes and the team now sits at 2-6, one loss from missing bowl eligibility again. But perhaps last week was a sign of things to come, because each week this season through the first half of the Pittsburgh game, the team was improving. And then from the second half of that contest through the North Carolina game, the team began regressing. Last week was certainly a step forward, no matter how much when you want to say Louisville just wasn't right or wasn't into it. A near
shocker of a top-five team is a near shocker no matter how slice it.

So now the team goes back on the road for the first time since the 34-20 win over Duke on Oct. 1 -- the team's most recent victory this season. And it heads back to the state of North Carolina for a date with Wake Forest, which has undergone its own rebuilding job under third-year coach Dave Clawson. The Demon Deacons are 5-3 and 2-2 in the conference. Clawson, who successfully rebuilt programs at Fordham, Richmond, and Bowling Green, went 3-9 in each of his first two seasons in Winston-Salem. The predictions for 2016 weren't that great from those who know the ACC, but Clawson was confident, saying he expected the team to reach bowl eligibility. And now the Deacons are one win away from that magical sixth victory and arguably should've already gotten there, but they were upended by Army last week, 21-13. Wake's other losses are to N.C. State and Florida State. Its wins came over Delaware, Tulane, Indiana, Duke, and Syracuse.

Wake Forest does not have a good offense and is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Louisville. The Deacons' offense ranks last in the ACC in points scored per game at just more than 20. But their defense has been very good, giving up just 18.2 per game, thus part of the reason why they are on the cusp of a possible bowl berth. Sophomore quarterback Kendall Hinton sprained his knee in the third game of the season. He has not played since but he might be ready for this one. Clawson declined to say if Hinton would play. Hinton brings an athleticism to the position that junior John Wolford does not. Hinton has completed 11 of 19 passes for 174 yards and a pick with no TDs. Wolford has completed 118 of 215 passes for 1,230 yards, four touchdowns, and seven picks. Both are capable runners, but Hinton is considered more explosive and has averaged five yards per carry while Wolford is at 4.6. Matt Colbrum is Wake's leading rusher at 417 yards and a touchdown and 4.3 yards per carry. Tabari Hines has pulled in 28 catches for 347 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Virginia needs to be mindful of defensive back Jessie Bates, who has four picks and has returned one for a touchdown. Benkert needs to be careful with the ball. He has yet to go one game this year without throwing an interception. Virginia might not be able to win a game without his abilities, but he has hurt the Wahoos, too. Linebacker Marquel Lee is disruptive as well, totaling 12 tackles for loss and four sacks.

The last three weeks have been tough for the Cavaliers. Pittsburgh, UNC, and Louisville are above average to excellent teams. Wake is a solid squad but has played an easy schedule. This is an opportunity for Virginia to start cobbling together some momentum for the final month of the season. However, the Deacons will be hungry for that sixth "W." It almost would've been better if they had gotten it last week vs. Army. Now, they might be more motivated. We've seen, at times, what UVa is capable of this year. And we've seen what can go wrong. Simply put, if a good version of Virginia shows up today, the chances for a win are good. If the 'Hoos give a subpar effort, then it will show, and Wake will probably win. I'm really pulling for this team and for them to have a couple more successes this season. I think they might be due for a victory, and I hope I'm right.
Virginia 27, Wake Forest 24

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