All right, finally getting to a little more on the Austin Nichols dismissal.
He is no doubt a big loss for the Cavaliers, but maybe not as big as once thought. Since his exit, Virginia has beaten Yale, 62-38, and Grambling State, 90-34. Now, those teams are nothing like the top competition UVa will face in the ACC -- but it is worth noting Yale beat Washington 98-90 before facing UVa -- but certainly, thus far, fans have to be happy about the way the team is playing, especially on defense. Only one team, UNC Greensboro, has gone over 50 points on the Cavaliers, and it got just 51. Mamadi Diakite has provided terrific interior defense off the bench. I think the biggest loss with Nichols gone might come on the offensive end. I'm not sure UVa has someone that can fill the spot he would as a back-to-the-basket scorer. Sure, it means more minutes for Jack Salt, who has started every game, and for Jarred Reuter, but they aren't as offensively skilled as Nichols. It looks like they've both improved, and Reuter definitely has nice touch around the basket, but the volume just probably won't be there. So with that in mind, here are my predictions from last week. I have made changes, noted, to two games: at Notre Dame and vs. Duke.
at UNCG - W (76-51)
vs. St. Francis (N.Y.) - W (72-32)
vs. Yale - W (62-38)
vs. Grambling State - W (90-34)
vs. Iowa in Niceville, Fla. - W
vs. Memphis or Providence in Niceville, Fla. - W
vs. Ohio State - W
vs. West Virginia - W
vs. East Carolina -W
vs. Robert Morris - W
at California - L
at Louisville - L
vs. Florida State - W
at Pittsburgh - W
vs. Wake Forest - W
at Clemson - L
at Boston College - W
vs. Georgia Tech - W
at Notre Dame - W, changing to L
at Villanova - L
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Syracuse - L
vs. Louisville - W
at Virginia Tech - L
vs. Duke - W, changing to L
at North Carolina - L
vs. Miami - W
at N.C. State - L
vs. North Carolina - W
vs. Pittsburgh - W
Prediction: 20-10 (10-8 ACC)
I feel like I should be honest about how the news hit me, which was as a big, disappointing loss. Now, I just don't know. Maybe the 'Hoos will be OK. We won't really know until the competition steps up, which it is about to do with Iowa today, Memphis or Providence on Saturday (both games in Florida), Ohio State at home Wednesday, and then West Virginia at home next Saturday. The team has not missed a beat so far, but the opponents have been mostly lackluster. That said, I only took two wins away from UVa, at Notre Dame and home vs. Duke, which you might not think reflects a major setback for the team. With that said, 22-10 (10-8 ACC) sounds like a record I am almost not used to for the Cavs, and that is a testament to how good they have been lately. UVa has lost a total of nine ACC games the past three seasons, so predicting it will lose almost that many conference games in one campaign feels weird. I have this hopefulness, this sense, that the Wahoos will be better than 10-8 in the conference. This does kind of feel like one of the more unpredictable seasons in recent years. Marial Shayok has so far done a very nice job giving the Cavs an offensive boost off the bench, scoring 15 points in two separate games. Can that continue? Kyle Guy is doing the same. He made five of his six 3-point attempts against Grambling State. Is he the real deal and can he keep up his hot start? Can Salt and Reuter continue to provide offense as well? Can Virginia's defense be as good or better than last season despite the loss of an interior shot-blocking presence like Nichols, and is Diakite filling that role, albeit on a non-starting basis? These are all questions that will be answered over the next few months. Let's just just try to sit back and enjoy the ride as best we can.
He is no doubt a big loss for the Cavaliers, but maybe not as big as once thought. Since his exit, Virginia has beaten Yale, 62-38, and Grambling State, 90-34. Now, those teams are nothing like the top competition UVa will face in the ACC -- but it is worth noting Yale beat Washington 98-90 before facing UVa -- but certainly, thus far, fans have to be happy about the way the team is playing, especially on defense. Only one team, UNC Greensboro, has gone over 50 points on the Cavaliers, and it got just 51. Mamadi Diakite has provided terrific interior defense off the bench. I think the biggest loss with Nichols gone might come on the offensive end. I'm not sure UVa has someone that can fill the spot he would as a back-to-the-basket scorer. Sure, it means more minutes for Jack Salt, who has started every game, and for Jarred Reuter, but they aren't as offensively skilled as Nichols. It looks like they've both improved, and Reuter definitely has nice touch around the basket, but the volume just probably won't be there. So with that in mind, here are my predictions from last week. I have made changes, noted, to two games: at Notre Dame and vs. Duke.
at UNCG - W (76-51)
vs. St. Francis (N.Y.) - W (72-32)
vs. Yale - W (62-38)
vs. Grambling State - W (90-34)
vs. Iowa in Niceville, Fla. - W
vs. Memphis or Providence in Niceville, Fla. - W
vs. Ohio State - W
vs. West Virginia - W
vs. East Carolina -W
vs. Robert Morris - W
at California - L
at Louisville - L
vs. Florida State - W
at Pittsburgh - W
vs. Wake Forest - W
at Clemson - L
at Boston College - W
vs. Georgia Tech - W
at Notre Dame - W, changing to L
at Villanova - L
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Syracuse - L
vs. Louisville - W
at Virginia Tech - L
vs. Duke - W, changing to L
at North Carolina - L
vs. Miami - W
at N.C. State - L
vs. North Carolina - W
vs. Pittsburgh - W
Prediction: 20-10 (10-8 ACC)
I feel like I should be honest about how the news hit me, which was as a big, disappointing loss. Now, I just don't know. Maybe the 'Hoos will be OK. We won't really know until the competition steps up, which it is about to do with Iowa today, Memphis or Providence on Saturday (both games in Florida), Ohio State at home Wednesday, and then West Virginia at home next Saturday. The team has not missed a beat so far, but the opponents have been mostly lackluster. That said, I only took two wins away from UVa, at Notre Dame and home vs. Duke, which you might not think reflects a major setback for the team. With that said, 22-10 (10-8 ACC) sounds like a record I am almost not used to for the Cavs, and that is a testament to how good they have been lately. UVa has lost a total of nine ACC games the past three seasons, so predicting it will lose almost that many conference games in one campaign feels weird. I have this hopefulness, this sense, that the Wahoos will be better than 10-8 in the conference. This does kind of feel like one of the more unpredictable seasons in recent years. Marial Shayok has so far done a very nice job giving the Cavs an offensive boost off the bench, scoring 15 points in two separate games. Can that continue? Kyle Guy is doing the same. He made five of his six 3-point attempts against Grambling State. Is he the real deal and can he keep up his hot start? Can Salt and Reuter continue to provide offense as well? Can Virginia's defense be as good or better than last season despite the loss of an interior shot-blocking presence like Nichols, and is Diakite filling that role, albeit on a non-starting basis? These are all questions that will be answered over the next few months. Let's just just try to sit back and enjoy the ride as best we can.
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