Bowl picks (part 4)

Alright, let's see if I can get through the next six games, which includes ACC matchups and both playoff games as well.

Bowl record so far: 4-2 Season (incl. bowls): 79-33

Today
Hyundai Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas
No. 18 Stanford (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4), 2 p.m. CBS
The Cardinal hit some bumps in the middle of the season with blowout losses against Washington State and Washington and a close defeat against Colorado. But Stanford is now on a five-game winning streak, although the teams haven't exactly been a who's who of bowl season: Arizona, Oregon State, Cal, Rice, and Oregon, none of whom are in the postseason. The Cardinal did beat those teams by an average of 39.6-20, though. Stanford will be without star RB Christian McCaffrey, who decided to skip the bowl to prepare for the NFL draft. The Tar Heels were unable to follow up their Coastal-winning campaign from a year ago with another division title, losing to Virginia Tech in the middle of the season at home, which handed the Hokies the Coastal. But arguably, UNC has better wins than Stanford, having beaten Florida State and Miami on the road and Pittsburgh at home, all teams with at least eight wins. Stanford's best win is over USC, however it was early in the season when the Trojans were really struggling. RB Elijah Hood will sit out this game because of an injury. He'll be back next season. QB Mitch Trubisky might not be, as he could be an early entrant into the draft and one of the first signal-callers picked in a weak draft. No doubt, the McCaffrey loss is a bummer for the Cardinal, but I still like it to take the victory. UNC has lost two of three -- to Duke and N.C. State -- with its only win in that stretch coming against The Citadel.
Stanford 34, North Carolina 31

FedEx Orange Bowl in Miami
No. 6 Michigan (10-2) vs. No. 11 Florida State (9-3), 8 p.m. ESPN
Michigan had aspirations of going to the playoff, but losing two of three to Iowa and Ohio State sank those plans. Still, I can't see the Wolverines, led by coach Jim Harbaugh, not coming out ready and inspired. The Seminoles have won four in a row, against N.C. State, Boston College, Syracuse, and Florida, decent wins, but nothing jaw-dropping. FSU lost to Clemson and UNC by three and two points, respectively, and was blown out at Louisville in the height of the Lamar Jackson craze. Michigan's defense was one of the most consistent in the nation, and I'm not sure FSU can generate enough offense to win this game. Michigan could have similar issues against FSU's defense, but I like the Wolverines in a fairly close matchup.
Michigan 31, Florida State 26

Saturday
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl in Orlando
No. 20 LSU (7-4) vs. No. 13 Louisville (9-3), 11 a.m. ABC
The Tigers had an up and down season, losing their opener to Wisconsin before winning two in a row. But then, they lost in the last second against Auburn, and coach Les Miles was fired. LSU preceded to win three in a row and then played Alabama very tough but lost, 10-0. To end the year, LSU blew out Arkansas and Texas A&M but lost to Florida. All told, however, LSU's four losses came by an average of only 5.8 points. Star RB Leonard Fournette, likely one of the top picks in the draft, will sit out after having injury issues all season. LSU hired interim coach Ed Orgeron on a full-time basis Nov. 26. Louisville started out like one of the hottest teams in the country as QB Lamar Jackson took the nation by storm. The Cardinals didn't score fewer than 59 points until their first loss of the season at Clemson, 42-36, in the fifth game, and in that contest, they were driving down toward the goal line when a fourth-down try came up just short. After that, though, Louisville cooled off, getting a scare from Duke and even more than that from Virginia, which was about 18 seconds from pulling one of the upsets of the year at Scott Stadium. But Jackson's TD pass lifted the Cards, 32-25. Louisville ended the year with disappointing losses to Houston, 36-10, and Kentucky, 41-38. Even with Fournette out, I feel like this is a game where LSU is going to have a bit more motivation than the Cardinals, who were hoping for an outside chance at a playoff berth until their final two losses.
LSU 27, Louisville 24

TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5), 11 a.m. ESPN
The Yellow Jackets had a very nice rebound year after going 3-9 in 2015. They lost three in a row to Clemson, Miami, and Pittsburgh, but ended the year winning five of six, including beating Virginia Tech by two TDs in Blacksburg, and also topped rival Georgia. The lone loss in that stretch was a 48-20 head-scratcher against UNC. The Wildcats began the year with a loss against Southern Miss and getting blown out by Florida. But they rebounded to win seven of 10, with the losses coming to Alabama (but everyone lost to them, and they kept it close for a bit), Georgia, and Tennessee. They beat bowl teams Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi State (though it went 5-7), and Louisville. Usually, teams that have time to prepare for Paul Johnson's triple-option attack at Georgia Tech have some success. But Kentucky ranked tied for 107th in rush defense and allowed teams to rush for at least 200 yards in five of their past six games. So I trust the Yellow Jackets more to come out with the victory.
Georgia Tech 38, Kentucky 35

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta - College Football Playoff semifinal
No. 4 Washington (12-1) vs. No. 1 Alabama (13-0), 3 p.m. ESPN
The Huskies had a terrific year under coach Chris Petersen and QB Jake Browning, breaking out in Petersen's third year after going 8-5 and 7-6 his first two seasons in Seattle. Washington clubbed most of its opponents, including a beatdown of Stanford, 44-6, destruction of Oregon, 70-21, pasting of rival Washington State, 45-17, for the Pac-12 North title, and finally a crushing of Colorado in the conference championship, 41-10. The lone blemish was a 26-13 home setback against a hot USC team, one that many thought had a shot to make the playoff at the end of the year because of the high level at which it was playing. The resume is impressive, but as we all know, the Crimson Tide is a whole 'nother beast. Alabama hasn't allowed a team to score more than 16 points since Oct. 9 and has some ridiculous streak going of non-offensive TDs in a game. The Tide has 14 of those on the year. DE Jonathan Allen leads the Tide's superb defense. What's worse, 'Bama has the offense clicking under QB Jalen Hurts, who is just a freshman. Alabama has scored fewer than 30 points just once, against LSU in a 10-0 win. I hope for the sake of excitement Washington can keep it close, but like everyone else, I have no reason to pick against Alabama.
Alabama 30, Washington 24

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. - College Football Playoff semifinal
No. 3 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 2 Clemson (12-1), 7 p.m. ESPN
I think this has the chance to be one of the best games of the entire season. The Tigers followed up their awesome performance last year with an almost perfect 2016. The only setback came at home against Pittsburgh on a 50+-yard field goal. Clemson has solid-to-great wins over Georgia Tech, Louisville, Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech. Deshaun Watson again impressed under center for the Tigers, though his interceptions -- 15 of them -- are a concern. In Clemson's way of a possible rematch in the championship against Alabama is a Buckeyes team that didn't even win its division in the Big Ten but was -- rightly so, probably -- viewed as one of the top-four teams after edging rival Michigan in overtime. Anyone that watched the game, though, saw that the Wolverines seemed to dominate most of the time. That game, paired with a near disaster of a loss at Michigan State the week before, has had OSU pointing a little bit downward. The Buckeyes lost at Penn State, 24-21, and won in OT at Wisconsin, 30-23, in other notable results. Both these teams have flaws, but in the end, I like the explosiveness of Clemson's offense to win the day -- slightly.
Clemson 38, Ohio State 37

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