NFL conference championship picks

Last week: 3-1 Playoffs: 7-1

NFC
Packers (12-6) at Falcons (12-5), 3:05 p.m. Fox
Who's going to suit up for Green Bay? Will it matter as long as it has Aaron Rodgers? As we saw last week against the Cowboys, the Packers have a chance with Rodgers suiting up. He's been on an absolute tear on the Packers' eight-game winning streak. Jordy Neslon, Davante Adams, and Geronimo Allison are all questionable at wide receiver. Getting any of them to play will be a big help for Green Bay's offense. Of course, the Packers still do have Randall Cobb and tight end Jared Cook, who made the huge catch along the sideline last week that set up Green Bay for its game-winning field goal. Ty Montgomery is also a good weapon for the Packers. The Falcons have been great this year as well as kind of the overlooked team in the NFC. Matt Ryan had a fantastic season at QB, the best of his career, and now he's on the verge of his first Super Bowl appearance. He was in the NFC title game once already in Jan. 2013 when the Falcons hosted the 49ers but lost, 28-24. His biggest weapon has been Julio Jones, who has been hurt but awesome and is expected to play today. Atlanta's defense left a lot to be desired in the regular season, giving up the 25th most yards and 27th most points. It played pretty well last week in the Falcons' victory over the Seahawks, but the Packers' offense is a different animal. In a way, this game is a lot like the Dallas-Green Bay matchup. Atlanta, like Dallas, has a superlative offense but suspect defense. Can the defense do enough to slow down Rodgers and get the win? In the regular season, these teams played one of the better games of the year around Halloween, with Atlanta winning at home, 33-32. I'm going with the Packers to get it done in this one, though, in what will be a very close game. The job will be harder without the weapons I listed if they don't play, but Rodgers, as we've seen, is capable of carrying the team on his shoulders, and I don't think the Falcons will have quite enough defense to slow him down.
Packers 36, Falcons 34

AFC
Steelers (13-5) at Patriots (15-2), 6:40 p.m. CBS
This classic matchup of Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady has somehow only happened once in the playoffs, in Jan. 2005 in the AFC championship in Pittsburgh. It was Roethlisberger's rookie year, and Pittsburgh was 16-1. New England came away with the 41-27 win and went on to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is going to probably need more than six field goals to beat New England. That's all the Steelers needed to down the Chiefs on the road last week, 18-16. The Patriots weren't pretty, but they did enough to pull away from the Texans for a 34-16 victory. They'll probably need to be sharper as well. They were only up on Houston, 17-13, in the second half in a game where they were favored by 15.5 points. New England's defense has been stout and underrated all year. The Steelers, of course, bring a load of weapons into this game that will be a great challenge for the Patriots to stop. Pittsburgh is likely going to convert more red-zone opportunities than last week, and the Patriots in turn will look to push the envelope more on offense than last week. Pittsburgh's defense has improved over early in the season, but Kansas City's offense wasn't up to snuff last week. At home, I like the Patriots to pull this one out in a close contest.
Patriots 27, Steelers 24

Comments