I haven't been picking NFL games all year, because it was just cramping my time, and I was inconsistent with it in years past anyway. But with the playoffs beginning, it's time to make an exception. The NFL playoffs is arguably the best postseason there is, with the one-game nature of the matchups making the games both incredibly exciting for football fans and nerve-wracking and frustrating for fans of the teams. Upsets are more likely in a one-game format, and the NFL has seen them over the years, whereas the three other major sports, MLB, NBA, and NHL, have series that are more susceptible to the favorite prevailing. So, let's get to this weekend's wild card picks:
Today
Raiders (12-4) at Texans (9-7), 4:35 p.m. ABC/ESPN
The playoffs are exciting, but this game certainly doesn't get the blood rushing. It is best to get it out of the way first. Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler doesn't scream supreme QB matchup. But that's what we are left with because of Raiders QB Derek Carr's broken leg and backup Matt McGloin's shoulder injury from a week ago. And Tom Savage earned the starting spot in Houston, but then he suffered a concussion last week, handing the job back to Osweiler. Expect a good amount of running in this game with Latavius Murray for Oakland and Lamar Miller for Houston. The Texans, even without J.J. Watt for the majority of the year, own a good defense and led the NFL in yards allowed. I like the Texans in a close game that could come down to field goals.
Texans 16, Raiders 13
Lions (9-7) at Seahawks (10-5-1), 8:15 p.m. NBC
The Lions were the cardiac kids for much of the year, with eight game-winning drives orchestrated by QB Matt Stafford. There are some flaws in that last sentence, of course, that this article points out. Nevertheless, the Lions have been impressive in the fourth quarter. But Detroit has now lost three straight games against the Giants, Cowboys, and Packers, falling from the NFC North lead to the last team in the NFC playoffs. The Lions' reward is a tough trip to Seattle, where the crowd is always a factor. Weather could also be a factor, with some snow expected, and you wonder how that could affect the Lions, who play home games in a dome. The Seahawks' usually impressive defense has not been as strong since the loss of safety Earl Thomas for the year, so Stafford could have some open receivers to throw to. Still, this is the Seahawks, at home, where they went 7-1 this year. And Detroit is reeling a bit, so I like Seattle to pull through.
Seahawks 24, Lions 17
Sunday
Dolphins (10-6) at Steelers (11-5), 1:05 p.m. CBS
Miami began its surprising run to the postseason in Week 6 with a 30-15 home win over the Steelers. Including that game, Miami is 9-2 since. That was RB Jay Ajayi's first of three 200-yard games on the year, his breakthrough performance. It's also when the Steelers began to struggle, as the loss to Miami began a string of four straight setbacks for Pittsburgh. Since, though, the Steelers have won seven in a row, and Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell are ready to go at full strength. In Pittsburgh, and with Matt Moore at quarterback for the Dolphins and not Ryan Tannehill -- out with an injury since Week 14 -- I like the Steelers to get it done. The Dolphins won't sneak up on them this time.
Steelers 31, Dolphins 24
Giants (11-5) at Packers (10-6), 4:40 p.m. Fox
The marquee game of the weekend is, fittingly, the last. We go from Osweiler vs. Cook to Rodgers vs. Manning. Ah, that sounds like a classic matchup. The winner will probably play my Cowboys, so it holds even more significance for fans of Dallas. (Detroit will face Dallas should it pull the upset of Seattle.) These teams met in Week 5 at Lambeau, with Green Bay winning, 23-16. That was when both teams were struggling. For New York, it was its third loss in three games after a 2-0 start, and it looked like the Giants would not be headed toward the playoffs. They went on a run, though, and won six in a row, including their second win over Dallas. Their calling card has not been the offense, which hasn't done much outside of Eli to Odell Beckham Jr. connections, but with their revived defense, which has been very good all season and is second in points allowed. Green Bay, despite that win in Week 5, was scuffling. The next week, Dallas went into Green Bay and won. After beating the Bears, the Packers lost four in a row. At 4-6, the Packers said they needed to win every game to make the playoffs. And they did, though it turned out had they lost to Detroit in Week 17, they still would've made the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. Aaron Rodgers, despite lots of hand wringing from fans and media in the middle of the season, again was superb this season, delivering 40 TDs (first in the league) and just seven INTs. As the NFC North champion, Green Bay gets the Giants at home, which should be a big help. Manning and the Giants have won at Green Bay in the playoffs before, but I like Green Bay this time to edge New York in a tight contest.
Packers 24, Giants 23
Today
Raiders (12-4) at Texans (9-7), 4:35 p.m. ABC/ESPN
The playoffs are exciting, but this game certainly doesn't get the blood rushing. It is best to get it out of the way first. Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler doesn't scream supreme QB matchup. But that's what we are left with because of Raiders QB Derek Carr's broken leg and backup Matt McGloin's shoulder injury from a week ago. And Tom Savage earned the starting spot in Houston, but then he suffered a concussion last week, handing the job back to Osweiler. Expect a good amount of running in this game with Latavius Murray for Oakland and Lamar Miller for Houston. The Texans, even without J.J. Watt for the majority of the year, own a good defense and led the NFL in yards allowed. I like the Texans in a close game that could come down to field goals.
Texans 16, Raiders 13
Lions (9-7) at Seahawks (10-5-1), 8:15 p.m. NBC
The Lions were the cardiac kids for much of the year, with eight game-winning drives orchestrated by QB Matt Stafford. There are some flaws in that last sentence, of course, that this article points out. Nevertheless, the Lions have been impressive in the fourth quarter. But Detroit has now lost three straight games against the Giants, Cowboys, and Packers, falling from the NFC North lead to the last team in the NFC playoffs. The Lions' reward is a tough trip to Seattle, where the crowd is always a factor. Weather could also be a factor, with some snow expected, and you wonder how that could affect the Lions, who play home games in a dome. The Seahawks' usually impressive defense has not been as strong since the loss of safety Earl Thomas for the year, so Stafford could have some open receivers to throw to. Still, this is the Seahawks, at home, where they went 7-1 this year. And Detroit is reeling a bit, so I like Seattle to pull through.
Seahawks 24, Lions 17
Sunday
Dolphins (10-6) at Steelers (11-5), 1:05 p.m. CBS
Miami began its surprising run to the postseason in Week 6 with a 30-15 home win over the Steelers. Including that game, Miami is 9-2 since. That was RB Jay Ajayi's first of three 200-yard games on the year, his breakthrough performance. It's also when the Steelers began to struggle, as the loss to Miami began a string of four straight setbacks for Pittsburgh. Since, though, the Steelers have won seven in a row, and Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell are ready to go at full strength. In Pittsburgh, and with Matt Moore at quarterback for the Dolphins and not Ryan Tannehill -- out with an injury since Week 14 -- I like the Steelers to get it done. The Dolphins won't sneak up on them this time.
Steelers 31, Dolphins 24
Giants (11-5) at Packers (10-6), 4:40 p.m. Fox
The marquee game of the weekend is, fittingly, the last. We go from Osweiler vs. Cook to Rodgers vs. Manning. Ah, that sounds like a classic matchup. The winner will probably play my Cowboys, so it holds even more significance for fans of Dallas. (Detroit will face Dallas should it pull the upset of Seattle.) These teams met in Week 5 at Lambeau, with Green Bay winning, 23-16. That was when both teams were struggling. For New York, it was its third loss in three games after a 2-0 start, and it looked like the Giants would not be headed toward the playoffs. They went on a run, though, and won six in a row, including their second win over Dallas. Their calling card has not been the offense, which hasn't done much outside of Eli to Odell Beckham Jr. connections, but with their revived defense, which has been very good all season and is second in points allowed. Green Bay, despite that win in Week 5, was scuffling. The next week, Dallas went into Green Bay and won. After beating the Bears, the Packers lost four in a row. At 4-6, the Packers said they needed to win every game to make the playoffs. And they did, though it turned out had they lost to Detroit in Week 17, they still would've made the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. Aaron Rodgers, despite lots of hand wringing from fans and media in the middle of the season, again was superb this season, delivering 40 TDs (first in the league) and just seven INTs. As the NFC North champion, Green Bay gets the Giants at home, which should be a big help. Manning and the Giants have won at Green Bay in the playoffs before, but I like Green Bay this time to edge New York in a tight contest.
Packers 24, Giants 23
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