Virginia steps out of ACC play for nationally headlining game against NCAA defending champion Villanova
No. 12 Virginia at No. 1 Villanova, 1 p.m. Fox
On a five-game winning streak and after a big road win at Notre Dame, Virginia gets a break from the grueling conference schedule -- to face defending champion Villanova on the road? Yes, that's right. The Cavaliers get no real break today in facing the Wildcats, who are looking just as strong as last year and have been ranked in the top five all year. Villanova lost two key players from last season's championship-winning team in 3-pointing guard Ryan Arcidiacono and big man Daniel Ochefu, but have plenty of talent and experience returning, including player of the year candidate Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins, who hit the game-winning shot in the title game against North Carolina last season. Of course, as Wahoo fans know, one thing the Wildcats did not do last year was beat Virginia, which topped Villanova in a very exciting game Dec. 19 at John Paul Jones Arena, 86-75. I'm sure the Wildcats, who went 35-5 last season, would like to get a little revenge for one of the only blemishes on their schedule from 2015-16.
Here's more on the 2016-17 Villanova team:
Record: 19-2, 7-2 Big East
Leading scorers: Senior guard Josh Hart (19.6), sophomore guard Jalen Brunson (14.1), senior forward Kris Jenkins (13.7), sophomore guard Mikal Bridges (10.2)
Leading rebounders: Hart (6.6), senior forward Darryl Reynolds (5.7), Bridges (4.9), Jenkins (4)
Assist leaders: Brunson (4.2), Hart (3.5), Bridges (2.4)
Notable: Freshman guard Donte Vincenzo (7.4), sophomore forward Eric Paschall (6.8), Reynolds (5.8), and junior guard Phil Booth (5.7) are the other main scorers for the Wildcats. No one else even averages four minutes of playing time. Hart, Brunson, Jenkins, and Bridges all average about a steal or so per game.
Reynolds averages one block.
Best win: at No. 15 Purdue, 79-76
Worst win: vs. DePaul, 68-65. The Blue Demons are now 8-12.
Other wins: Lafayette, Western Michigan, Wake Forest, Central Florida, College of Charleston, Penn, Saint Joseph's, La Salle, Notre Dame, Temple, American, Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence
Best loss: at then-No. 18 Butler, 66-58. The Bulldogs are now 17-3 and ranked No. 11.
Other loss: at Marquette, 74-72, on Wednesday. Not a bad loss, but the Golden Eagles are not ranked. However, they are 14-6 and 5-3 in the Big East and certainly will be in the NCAA tournament conversation come March.
What Villanova does well: The Wildcats are solid across the board. They did, after all, win the national championship last season and did not lose a lot from that team. They score 78.3 ppg (72nd in the nation), shoot 49.7 percent (11th, one spot above Virginia), 37.5 percent from beyond the arc (tied-37th), and are at 79 percent from the line (third; Notre Dame was first, but didn't shoot overly well against Virginia). They also play strong defense, limiting teams to 62.6 ppg (16th), 41.2 percent shooting (72nd), 30.2 percent from 3-point land (18th), and own a +1.7 turnover margin (79th) while picking up 6.9 steals per game (tied-112th). They outrebound teams +5.1 per game (tied-51st). They also take care of the ball, averaging just 11 turnovers (tied-20th) while moving the ball around for 14.8 assists per game (114th).
What Villanova does poorly: I'm sure there is some advanced metric out there that shows something Villanova isn't great in, but I doubt it is poor in any one thing. Like I said, solid across the board.
Probably a little uncommon is the fact that Virginia and Villanova share three common opponents, and both teams went 3-0 against those squads. Virginia beat Wake Forest at home, 79-62; Villanova topped the Demon Deacons on a neutral floor, 96-77. UVa defeated Providence, 63-52; the Wildcats downed the Friars at home, 78-68, and play them again Wednesday, this time on the road. And the 'Hoos just beat Notre Dame on the road, 71-54; Villanova beat the Fighting Irish, 74-66, on a neutral floor.
While this is a big game with NCAA tournament implications that will draw national attention, the good thing for Virginia is a loss wouldn't be that damaging. A win would be significant and a big statement for the kind of team Virginia is trying to become this season and might very well launch the Cavaliers back into the realm of being a title contender. A defeat on the road at the defending national champion which is ranked No. 1 in the country, however, won't knock Virginia down much at all, if any, in terms of the all-important RPI metric. In fact, Villanova will provide a strength of schedule boost for the Cavaliers -- Virginia is listed as having the 27th-best schedule in the country right now and is No. 13 RPI, while Villanova is No. 2 in RPI, behind Baylor. According to ESPN's BPI feature, its own sort-of version of RPI, UVa has the toughest remaining schedule in the country. Certainly, I highlighted the next eight games Virginia was facing as it headed to Notre Dame as particularly tough.
This should just be a fun game for two great teams to really go at it. It will give a good barometer of where the teams are after about half of their conference schedules and provides a preview of an NCAA tournament-type game. The Villanova senior class has apparently never lost two games in a row, and it just lost at Marquette, so I'm going to go with the Wildcats, but Virginia is definitely capable of sticking around in this game and pulling off the upset if one of the better versions of itself shows up. But two victories in two years over such an elite squad, with the second contest coming on the road, seems like too tall an order to ask of Virginia.
Gut feeling: Villanova wins by 5-10 points.
On a five-game winning streak and after a big road win at Notre Dame, Virginia gets a break from the grueling conference schedule -- to face defending champion Villanova on the road? Yes, that's right. The Cavaliers get no real break today in facing the Wildcats, who are looking just as strong as last year and have been ranked in the top five all year. Villanova lost two key players from last season's championship-winning team in 3-pointing guard Ryan Arcidiacono and big man Daniel Ochefu, but have plenty of talent and experience returning, including player of the year candidate Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins, who hit the game-winning shot in the title game against North Carolina last season. Of course, as Wahoo fans know, one thing the Wildcats did not do last year was beat Virginia, which topped Villanova in a very exciting game Dec. 19 at John Paul Jones Arena, 86-75. I'm sure the Wildcats, who went 35-5 last season, would like to get a little revenge for one of the only blemishes on their schedule from 2015-16.
Here's more on the 2016-17 Villanova team:
Record: 19-2, 7-2 Big East
Leading scorers: Senior guard Josh Hart (19.6), sophomore guard Jalen Brunson (14.1), senior forward Kris Jenkins (13.7), sophomore guard Mikal Bridges (10.2)
Leading rebounders: Hart (6.6), senior forward Darryl Reynolds (5.7), Bridges (4.9), Jenkins (4)
Assist leaders: Brunson (4.2), Hart (3.5), Bridges (2.4)
Notable: Freshman guard Donte Vincenzo (7.4), sophomore forward Eric Paschall (6.8), Reynolds (5.8), and junior guard Phil Booth (5.7) are the other main scorers for the Wildcats. No one else even averages four minutes of playing time. Hart, Brunson, Jenkins, and Bridges all average about a steal or so per game.
Best win: at No. 15 Purdue, 79-76
Worst win: vs. DePaul, 68-65. The Blue Demons are now 8-12.
Other wins: Lafayette, Western Michigan, Wake Forest, Central Florida, College of Charleston, Penn, Saint Joseph's, La Salle, Notre Dame, Temple, American, Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence
Best loss: at then-No. 18 Butler, 66-58. The Bulldogs are now 17-3 and ranked No. 11.
Other loss: at Marquette, 74-72, on Wednesday. Not a bad loss, but the Golden Eagles are not ranked. However, they are 14-6 and 5-3 in the Big East and certainly will be in the NCAA tournament conversation come March.
What Villanova does well: The Wildcats are solid across the board. They did, after all, win the national championship last season and did not lose a lot from that team. They score 78.3 ppg (72nd in the nation), shoot 49.7 percent (11th, one spot above Virginia), 37.5 percent from beyond the arc (tied-37th), and are at 79 percent from the line (third; Notre Dame was first, but didn't shoot overly well against Virginia). They also play strong defense, limiting teams to 62.6 ppg (16th), 41.2 percent shooting (72nd), 30.2 percent from 3-point land (18th), and own a +1.7 turnover margin (79th) while picking up 6.9 steals per game (tied-112th). They outrebound teams +5.1 per game (tied-51st). They also take care of the ball, averaging just 11 turnovers (tied-20th) while moving the ball around for 14.8 assists per game (114th).
What Villanova does poorly: I'm sure there is some advanced metric out there that shows something Villanova isn't great in, but I doubt it is poor in any one thing. Like I said, solid across the board.
Probably a little uncommon is the fact that Virginia and Villanova share three common opponents, and both teams went 3-0 against those squads. Virginia beat Wake Forest at home, 79-62; Villanova topped the Demon Deacons on a neutral floor, 96-77. UVa defeated Providence, 63-52; the Wildcats downed the Friars at home, 78-68, and play them again Wednesday, this time on the road. And the 'Hoos just beat Notre Dame on the road, 71-54; Villanova beat the Fighting Irish, 74-66, on a neutral floor.
While this is a big game with NCAA tournament implications that will draw national attention, the good thing for Virginia is a loss wouldn't be that damaging. A win would be significant and a big statement for the kind of team Virginia is trying to become this season and might very well launch the Cavaliers back into the realm of being a title contender. A defeat on the road at the defending national champion which is ranked No. 1 in the country, however, won't knock Virginia down much at all, if any, in terms of the all-important RPI metric. In fact, Villanova will provide a strength of schedule boost for the Cavaliers -- Virginia is listed as having the 27th-best schedule in the country right now and is No. 13 RPI, while Villanova is No. 2 in RPI, behind Baylor. According to ESPN's BPI feature, its own sort-of version of RPI, UVa has the toughest remaining schedule in the country. Certainly, I highlighted the next eight games Virginia was facing as it headed to Notre Dame as particularly tough.
This should just be a fun game for two great teams to really go at it. It will give a good barometer of where the teams are after about half of their conference schedules and provides a preview of an NCAA tournament-type game. The Villanova senior class has apparently never lost two games in a row, and it just lost at Marquette, so I'm going to go with the Wildcats, but Virginia is definitely capable of sticking around in this game and pulling off the upset if one of the better versions of itself shows up. But two victories in two years over such an elite squad, with the second contest coming on the road, seems like too tall an order to ask of Virginia.
Gut feeling: Villanova wins by 5-10 points.
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