No. 12 Duke at No. 14 Virginia, 9 p.m. ESPN2
A trend has become a troubling pattern. Virginia lost its third game of the year Sunday in which it led by double digits: Virginia Tech followed in the footsteps of Syracuse and Villanova with its 80-78 double overtime victory in Blacksburg. That does not count the first win Virginia got over Louisville where the Cavaliers led by more than 20 points deep into the second half only to win by eight. Against Tech, London Perrantes scored 22 points, Kyle Guy 12, Marial Shayok 11, and Devon Hall 10. Virginia led 37-23 at the half, but allowed the Hokies to score 40 points in the second half on 58.3 percent shooting. Tech made eight 3s but had several other open looks. The Hokies made 20 of 26 free throws while UVa made just 14 of 24. Virginia made 6 of 11 from beyond the arc in the first half, but just 2 of 9 in the second half and 0 for 3 across the two overtimes. I kind of thought it might not be Virginia's night when, in the second half, Tech's Justin Bibbs banked in a 3 and Perrantes had a layup get stuck on top of the rim. Not lodged in between the rim and the backboard, which happens several times per year. But the ball stopped on the small area (square?) in the middle between the hoop and the backboard. That is a once-every-few-years occurrence, if that. Even so, with all the problems and quirks of the second half, better free throw shooting could've closed out the game. I believe Perrantes missed two crucial ones at the end of regulation. He made 5 of 7, but needed 7 of 7. Then in OT, Ty Jerome went to the line for a one-and-one with UVa up two with less than a minute left, and clanked the first attempt off the back of the rim.
I don't have all the answers to why Virginia has given up these leads. If I did, I could maybe be a professional analyst or a coach. But two things are probably fairly obvious. Malcolm Brogdon was a shutdown defender on the perimeter, and losing him meant the Wahoos lost a guy who could pretty much defend guards and smaller forwards, shutting down almost any hot player. UVa is allowing more penetration into the paint without Brogdon. As a result, Virginia is having to do defend more at the rim and thus being called for more fouls, though as I showed in my earlier post before the Tech game, UVa still fouls less than most teams in the nation. Also, losing Austin Nichols down low at the beginning of the year had a two-fold effect. Again, defensively, he would've helped with the penetration of guards and wings. He was an elite shot blocker. We have a couple pretty decent ones in Isaiah Wilkins and Jack Salt, but they do not approach the level of what Nichols showed in his two seasons at Memphis. And also, he would've been a solid post scorer, something Virginia does not have. Wilkins can occasionally play like a traditional post, but he is more likely to take open 15-footers and get points on tip-ins. Salt is woefully awkward around the basket and weak and slow when going up to the hoop, often getting stripped. Jarred Reuter has some nice moves and touch, but isn't athletic and is only 6-foot-7. Nichols would've given the 'Hoos a better presence down low, a la Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey the past few seasons, that could've slowed the game down and given the Cavaliers better offensive options. Virginia shot worse and worse as the game went on against the Hokies. It is overly dependent on jumpers. A player like Nichols would've helped the Cavs hopefully get some points during cold-shooting spells. Without him, UVa does not own that luxury of looking to the post for solid point production.
Virginia is 3-3 in this recent tough stretch that began with a game at Notre Dame. At first, it looked like UVa might go better than 4-4 in this eight-contest span that ends Saturday at North Carolina. UVa crushed Notre Dame on the road, nearly beat Villanova on the road, then crushed the Hokies at home. Since, UVa has lost two of three with two difficult games still to go. The first comes tonight at home against Duke, which has won five in a row. Here's more on this year's Blue Devils.
Record: 20-5, 8-4 ACC
Leading scorers: Sophomore guard Luke Kennard (20), junior guard Grayson Allen (15.9), freshman forward Jayson Tatum (15.6), senior forward Amile Jefferson (11.3), freshman guard Frank Jackson (10.2)
Leading rebounders: Jefferson (9.1), Jayson Tatum (7), Kennard (5.1), Allen (4.4), freshman forward Harry Giles (4.4)
Assist leaders: Allen (4), Kennard (2.5), Tatum (2.1), senior guard Matt Jones (2.1)
Notable: Jones averages 8 points, and Tatum 5. Eight players average double-figure minutes, including
Chase Jeter, who averages 15 minutes but just 2.6 points. Jones averages almost two steals, and Kennard, Allen, Tatum, and Jefferson average about one. Jefferson, Tatum, and Jeter each average a block.
Best win: vs. No. 8 North Carolina, 86-78, last Thursday
Worst win: Pre-ACC schedule, Duke had a few 10-point wins that, for the Blue Devils, made it seem like they weren't quite on top of their game. And they probably weren't. Duke lost three of its first five ACC contests after the pre-ACC slate ended. Probably the most troubling non-conference win came against Tennessee State, 65-55, at home. The Tigers, from the Ohio Valley Conference, are 15-11 but certainly no power. A Duke team hitting on all cylinders would normally destroy such a team at Cameron. Another candidate for worst win came Saturday. Coming off the big win over UNC, Duke barely held off Clemson at home, 64-62. The victory over the Tar Heels was probably exhausting but still, the performance against the Tigers was shaky.
Other wins: Marist, Grand Canyon, Penn State, Rhode Island, William & Mary, Appalachian State, Michigan State, Maine, Florida, UNLV, Elon, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Best loss: In New York in November, Duke fell, 77-75, to Kansas. The Jayhawks are now 23-3 and likely headed for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Worst loss: That would have to be Jan. 23 at home against N.C. State, 84-82. The Devils let the Wolfpack come back from 12 down. State is now 14-12 and coach Mark Gottfried is likely getting fired at the end of the season.
Other losses: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville
What Duke does well: Offensively, Duke is sharp again, scoring 81.9 points per game (22nd). The Blue Devils shoot 48.1 percent (31st), 37.6 percent from behind the arc (65th), and 74.7 percent on free throws (46th). They outrebound opponents by a +4.7 margin (53rd). They also own a solid assist-turnover ratio of +1.19 (83rd) and only turn the ball over 11.8 times per game (47th). Defensively, Duke is giving up 68 points per game (73rd) and just 30 percent shooting on 3-pointers (ninth). The Blue Devils average 4.5 blocks (62nd).
What Duke does poorly: Overall, Duke is giving up 43 percent shooting (153rd), meaning its inside-the-arc defense could use some work as compared to its 3-point defense. Offensively, Duke might be looking to go one-on-one a bit too much, averaging 14 assists (144th).
Duke began the season as the No. 1 team in the country and many analysts' favorite for the national championship given the return of Allen and because Mike Krzyzewski had the No. 1-rated freshman class in the country. Duke started out hot but then faltered a bit with four losses in seven games. That nearly turned into five in eight, but Duke made a late comeback at Wake Forest that might've turned the season around. After that, the Blue Devils handled Notre Dame on the road, and then Krzyzewski returned after back surgery. The Devils haven't lost since falling to N.C. State at home before the Wake contest. It's worth noting, however, that four of Duke's five wins in this span have come by single digits. Of course, one of those was against North Carolina in a huge game where no one was expected to win by more than a few points. Still, hopefully that means that the Devils are vulnerable and due a setback.
For all the praise heaped on the freshman class, Duke has been carried by Kennard and Allen. Kennard is shooting 45.9 percent from 3, and Allen, who had his troubles earlier this season with tripping opponents but has calmed down his actions recently, is capable of getting hot, too, as he shoots 35.8 percent from 3 and recorded seven makes from beyond the arc vs. the Tar Heels. Other than those two, Jackson (38.1 percent) and Jones (34.5 percent) are also capable 3-point shooters. Virginia gave up way too many open looks to the Hokies, and that can't happen against Duke, or Virginia will be looking at a second consecutive loss.
Jefferson is back after breaking his foot a year ago and missing 27 games. He bruised the same foot this year and missed two games in mid-January. He hasn't made an impact as big as he did early in the season when he recorded six double-doubles. He hasn't had one since Dec. 10 and has only scored more than six points once since returning from his injury in January (seven games played since returning). Tatum, just a freshman, has been more consistent. He has just one double-double, but has at least 10 points in all but two games he's played. He missed the first eight games of the year with a foot injury.
Virginia's leaky defense is what I am most worried about. Open looks aren't going to cut it against a good-shooting team like Duke. The Blue Devils are hot and also had an extra day of rest while Virginia expended itself into double overtime at Virginia Tech on Sunday. Krzyzewski is back, and I'm sure the players have a lot of confidence. And of course, the trend of giving up leads does not look good for Virginia. Duke is capable of quickly erasing a big deficit. The Blue Devils did that two years ago when these teams met at JPJ in late January when UVa was 19-0. Duke was down 11 but stormed back for a 69-63 victory. I really hope I am wrong, but I don't see this one going in UVa's favor.
Gut feeling: Duke wins by 1-5 points.
A trend has become a troubling pattern. Virginia lost its third game of the year Sunday in which it led by double digits: Virginia Tech followed in the footsteps of Syracuse and Villanova with its 80-78 double overtime victory in Blacksburg. That does not count the first win Virginia got over Louisville where the Cavaliers led by more than 20 points deep into the second half only to win by eight. Against Tech, London Perrantes scored 22 points, Kyle Guy 12, Marial Shayok 11, and Devon Hall 10. Virginia led 37-23 at the half, but allowed the Hokies to score 40 points in the second half on 58.3 percent shooting. Tech made eight 3s but had several other open looks. The Hokies made 20 of 26 free throws while UVa made just 14 of 24. Virginia made 6 of 11 from beyond the arc in the first half, but just 2 of 9 in the second half and 0 for 3 across the two overtimes. I kind of thought it might not be Virginia's night when, in the second half, Tech's Justin Bibbs banked in a 3 and Perrantes had a layup get stuck on top of the rim. Not lodged in between the rim and the backboard, which happens several times per year. But the ball stopped on the small area (square?) in the middle between the hoop and the backboard. That is a once-every-few-years occurrence, if that. Even so, with all the problems and quirks of the second half, better free throw shooting could've closed out the game. I believe Perrantes missed two crucial ones at the end of regulation. He made 5 of 7, but needed 7 of 7. Then in OT, Ty Jerome went to the line for a one-and-one with UVa up two with less than a minute left, and clanked the first attempt off the back of the rim.
I don't have all the answers to why Virginia has given up these leads. If I did, I could maybe be a professional analyst or a coach. But two things are probably fairly obvious. Malcolm Brogdon was a shutdown defender on the perimeter, and losing him meant the Wahoos lost a guy who could pretty much defend guards and smaller forwards, shutting down almost any hot player. UVa is allowing more penetration into the paint without Brogdon. As a result, Virginia is having to do defend more at the rim and thus being called for more fouls, though as I showed in my earlier post before the Tech game, UVa still fouls less than most teams in the nation. Also, losing Austin Nichols down low at the beginning of the year had a two-fold effect. Again, defensively, he would've helped with the penetration of guards and wings. He was an elite shot blocker. We have a couple pretty decent ones in Isaiah Wilkins and Jack Salt, but they do not approach the level of what Nichols showed in his two seasons at Memphis. And also, he would've been a solid post scorer, something Virginia does not have. Wilkins can occasionally play like a traditional post, but he is more likely to take open 15-footers and get points on tip-ins. Salt is woefully awkward around the basket and weak and slow when going up to the hoop, often getting stripped. Jarred Reuter has some nice moves and touch, but isn't athletic and is only 6-foot-7. Nichols would've given the 'Hoos a better presence down low, a la Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey the past few seasons, that could've slowed the game down and given the Cavaliers better offensive options. Virginia shot worse and worse as the game went on against the Hokies. It is overly dependent on jumpers. A player like Nichols would've helped the Cavs hopefully get some points during cold-shooting spells. Without him, UVa does not own that luxury of looking to the post for solid point production.
Virginia is 3-3 in this recent tough stretch that began with a game at Notre Dame. At first, it looked like UVa might go better than 4-4 in this eight-contest span that ends Saturday at North Carolina. UVa crushed Notre Dame on the road, nearly beat Villanova on the road, then crushed the Hokies at home. Since, UVa has lost two of three with two difficult games still to go. The first comes tonight at home against Duke, which has won five in a row. Here's more on this year's Blue Devils.
Record: 20-5, 8-4 ACC
Leading scorers: Sophomore guard Luke Kennard (20), junior guard Grayson Allen (15.9), freshman forward Jayson Tatum (15.6), senior forward Amile Jefferson (11.3), freshman guard Frank Jackson (10.2)
Leading rebounders: Jefferson (9.1), Jayson Tatum (7), Kennard (5.1), Allen (4.4), freshman forward Harry Giles (4.4)
Assist leaders: Allen (4), Kennard (2.5), Tatum (2.1), senior guard Matt Jones (2.1)
Notable: Jones averages 8 points, and Tatum 5. Eight players average double-figure minutes, including
Best win: vs. No. 8 North Carolina, 86-78, last Thursday
Worst win: Pre-ACC schedule, Duke had a few 10-point wins that, for the Blue Devils, made it seem like they weren't quite on top of their game. And they probably weren't. Duke lost three of its first five ACC contests after the pre-ACC slate ended. Probably the most troubling non-conference win came against Tennessee State, 65-55, at home. The Tigers, from the Ohio Valley Conference, are 15-11 but certainly no power. A Duke team hitting on all cylinders would normally destroy such a team at Cameron. Another candidate for worst win came Saturday. Coming off the big win over UNC, Duke barely held off Clemson at home, 64-62. The victory over the Tar Heels was probably exhausting but still, the performance against the Tigers was shaky.
Other wins: Marist, Grand Canyon, Penn State, Rhode Island, William & Mary, Appalachian State, Michigan State, Maine, Florida, UNLV, Elon, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Best loss: In New York in November, Duke fell, 77-75, to Kansas. The Jayhawks are now 23-3 and likely headed for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Worst loss: That would have to be Jan. 23 at home against N.C. State, 84-82. The Devils let the Wolfpack come back from 12 down. State is now 14-12 and coach Mark Gottfried is likely getting fired at the end of the season.
Other losses: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville
What Duke does well: Offensively, Duke is sharp again, scoring 81.9 points per game (22nd). The Blue Devils shoot 48.1 percent (31st), 37.6 percent from behind the arc (65th), and 74.7 percent on free throws (46th). They outrebound opponents by a +4.7 margin (53rd). They also own a solid assist-turnover ratio of +1.19 (83rd) and only turn the ball over 11.8 times per game (47th). Defensively, Duke is giving up 68 points per game (73rd) and just 30 percent shooting on 3-pointers (ninth). The Blue Devils average 4.5 blocks (62nd).
What Duke does poorly: Overall, Duke is giving up 43 percent shooting (153rd), meaning its inside-the-arc defense could use some work as compared to its 3-point defense. Offensively, Duke might be looking to go one-on-one a bit too much, averaging 14 assists (144th).
Duke began the season as the No. 1 team in the country and many analysts' favorite for the national championship given the return of Allen and because Mike Krzyzewski had the No. 1-rated freshman class in the country. Duke started out hot but then faltered a bit with four losses in seven games. That nearly turned into five in eight, but Duke made a late comeback at Wake Forest that might've turned the season around. After that, the Blue Devils handled Notre Dame on the road, and then Krzyzewski returned after back surgery. The Devils haven't lost since falling to N.C. State at home before the Wake contest. It's worth noting, however, that four of Duke's five wins in this span have come by single digits. Of course, one of those was against North Carolina in a huge game where no one was expected to win by more than a few points. Still, hopefully that means that the Devils are vulnerable and due a setback.
For all the praise heaped on the freshman class, Duke has been carried by Kennard and Allen. Kennard is shooting 45.9 percent from 3, and Allen, who had his troubles earlier this season with tripping opponents but has calmed down his actions recently, is capable of getting hot, too, as he shoots 35.8 percent from 3 and recorded seven makes from beyond the arc vs. the Tar Heels. Other than those two, Jackson (38.1 percent) and Jones (34.5 percent) are also capable 3-point shooters. Virginia gave up way too many open looks to the Hokies, and that can't happen against Duke, or Virginia will be looking at a second consecutive loss.
Jefferson is back after breaking his foot a year ago and missing 27 games. He bruised the same foot this year and missed two games in mid-January. He hasn't made an impact as big as he did early in the season when he recorded six double-doubles. He hasn't had one since Dec. 10 and has only scored more than six points once since returning from his injury in January (seven games played since returning). Tatum, just a freshman, has been more consistent. He has just one double-double, but has at least 10 points in all but two games he's played. He missed the first eight games of the year with a foot injury.
Virginia's leaky defense is what I am most worried about. Open looks aren't going to cut it against a good-shooting team like Duke. The Blue Devils are hot and also had an extra day of rest while Virginia expended itself into double overtime at Virginia Tech on Sunday. Krzyzewski is back, and I'm sure the players have a lot of confidence. And of course, the trend of giving up leads does not look good for Virginia. Duke is capable of quickly erasing a big deficit. The Blue Devils did that two years ago when these teams met at JPJ in late January when UVa was 19-0. Duke was down 11 but stormed back for a 69-63 victory. I really hope I am wrong, but I don't see this one going in UVa's favor.
Gut feeling: Duke wins by 1-5 points.
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