No. 14 Virginia at No. 10 North Carolina, 8:15 p.m. ESPN
Duke took down Virginia in Charlottesville, 65-55, on Wednesday, further deepening the rut the Cavaliers find themselves in. UVa has lost three of its past four games and four of six as the tough part of the schedule seems to be wearing on the players. Virginia played pretty good defense against the Blue Devils, but the offense was lacking. The 'Hoos shot 36.8 percent and made just 5 of their 20 3-point tries. Only London Perrantes (14) and Ty Jerome (13) scored in double figures for UVa, and Perrantes was just 1 of 5 from deep. Duke defended well, and Virginia just could not find a rhythm on the offensive end.
It's time to adjust expectations a bit. At the beginning of the year, I said that the team would finish 22-8, 12-6 in the ACC. After Austin Nichols was booted off the team, I adjusted my expectations to 20-10, 10-8, saying that it didn't necessarily sound right for Virginia, given its recent success the past three seasons, but that I thought the Nichols loss would hurt. Early on, it looked that might not be the case. But as I discussed in the post getting ready for the Duke game, as the season has progressed and the ACC season has grown older, you can tell that UVa misses a post presence on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. It would've been a great luxury to throw the ball in the paint to Nichols for a few points with several Cavaliers struggling with their jumpers against the Blue Devils.
Tonight, Virginia goes to North Carolina for another daunting game. The hopes of a top-four ACC finish and double bye in the ACC tournament are growing dimmer, but there's still a chance. The schedule will still be challenging after the Tar Heels, but it does ease up slightly: vs. Miami, at N.C. State, vs. North Carolina, and vs. Pittsburgh. UVa sits at 18-7, 8-5 in the conference. 10-8 would mean two more wins. I'm hoping for at least three more to get to 11-7 and 21-9 overall. Any more than that at this point would be gravy and mostly unexpected. But Virginia is still a solid team, just with a major flaw, and most teams have some flaws. But Virginia has had pretty tough luck, too, I think, and you never know when that could turn around. Maybe it can tonight in Chapel Hill. Here's more on the Tar Heels:
Record: 22-5, 10-3 ACC
Leading scorers: Junior forward Justin Jackson (18.5), junior guard Joel Berry II (15), senior forward Isaiah Hicks (12.6), senior forward Kennedy Meeks (12.6)
Leading rebounders: Meeks (9.2), freshman forward Tony Bradley (5.5), Hicks (5.4), junior forward Theo Pinson (5), Jackson (4.7)
Assist leaders: Berry (4), Pinson (3.4), senior guard Nate Britt (2.6), Jackson (2.5)
Notable: Bradley is averaging 7.8 points and Pinson 6.9. Sophomore guard Kenny Williams had knee
surgery recently and he is out at least 4-6 weeks and maybe for the year. He was averaging 6.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. Without Williams, UNC goes eight deep in double-figure minute players, including Britt and sophomore forward Luke Maye, who averages 5.4 points and 3.8 rebounds. Berry, Britt, Meeks, and Pinson all average one steal. Meeks and Hicks block about one shot per game.
Best win: vs. then-No. 9 Florida State, 96-83 at home
Worst win: In December, at home, UNC beat Davidson 83-74. The Wildcats are now just 13-11 and 6-7 in the A-10.
Other wins: Tulane, Chattanooga, Long Beach State, Hawaii, Chaminade, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Radford, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Monmouth, Clemson, N.C. State (twice), Wake Forest, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Best loss: vs. then-No. 6 Kentucky, 103-100, in Las Vegas
Worst loss: at Georgia Tech, 75-63
Other losses: at Indiana, at Miami, at Duke
What North Carolina does well: Offense, The Tar Heels score 87.7 points per game (sixth), shoot 47.8 percent (37th), 37.1 percent from 3 (90th), and dish out 18.3 assists per game (third). They are the best rebounding team in the nation, averaging a +13.2 rebound margin, more than two boards more than second place SMU (+11). They also own a +1.49 assist-turnover margin (eighth) and average 12.8 turnovers (88th).
What North Carolina does poorly: The Heels struggle a little bit from the free throw line at 70.1 percent (163rd). They also are giving up 72.1 points per game (181st) on 42.2 percent shooting (105th), 34.9 percent on 3s (tied-175th).
UNC is a well-oiled offensive machine that scores and rebounds so well that defense doesn't have to be a priority. Now, if UVa tries to get into a drag race with the Tar Heels, it will lose. But I do think that a little more urgency on offense for the Cavaliers could be a good thing. I'm not sure where the happy medium is, but I think sometimes, UVa's offense gets bogged down by looking for just the right shot instead of attacking the basket. Sometimes. Other times, the method works to perfection, and someone gets an open shot they knock down. When games like Monday happen and the team is struggling to find its shot, maybe speeding up the pace a little or trying something different could help.
North Carolina is 22-5 and 10-3, but it does have flaws and has had a couple games go for it that could've went the other way. Tennessee, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame were all single-digit wins, and a couple of those teams just haven't been very good. So while I'm not expecting UVa to come up with the upset on the road, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing for the Wahoos to find their groove again. But, coming in off a cold-shooting game at home and as losers of three of their past four contests, winning at North Carolina is a very tough task. Virginia has the means to get back on track, and hopefully it does eventually, but I don't think it'll be today against the Tar Heels.
Gut feeling: North Carolina wins by 5-10 points.
Duke took down Virginia in Charlottesville, 65-55, on Wednesday, further deepening the rut the Cavaliers find themselves in. UVa has lost three of its past four games and four of six as the tough part of the schedule seems to be wearing on the players. Virginia played pretty good defense against the Blue Devils, but the offense was lacking. The 'Hoos shot 36.8 percent and made just 5 of their 20 3-point tries. Only London Perrantes (14) and Ty Jerome (13) scored in double figures for UVa, and Perrantes was just 1 of 5 from deep. Duke defended well, and Virginia just could not find a rhythm on the offensive end.
It's time to adjust expectations a bit. At the beginning of the year, I said that the team would finish 22-8, 12-6 in the ACC. After Austin Nichols was booted off the team, I adjusted my expectations to 20-10, 10-8, saying that it didn't necessarily sound right for Virginia, given its recent success the past three seasons, but that I thought the Nichols loss would hurt. Early on, it looked that might not be the case. But as I discussed in the post getting ready for the Duke game, as the season has progressed and the ACC season has grown older, you can tell that UVa misses a post presence on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. It would've been a great luxury to throw the ball in the paint to Nichols for a few points with several Cavaliers struggling with their jumpers against the Blue Devils.
Tonight, Virginia goes to North Carolina for another daunting game. The hopes of a top-four ACC finish and double bye in the ACC tournament are growing dimmer, but there's still a chance. The schedule will still be challenging after the Tar Heels, but it does ease up slightly: vs. Miami, at N.C. State, vs. North Carolina, and vs. Pittsburgh. UVa sits at 18-7, 8-5 in the conference. 10-8 would mean two more wins. I'm hoping for at least three more to get to 11-7 and 21-9 overall. Any more than that at this point would be gravy and mostly unexpected. But Virginia is still a solid team, just with a major flaw, and most teams have some flaws. But Virginia has had pretty tough luck, too, I think, and you never know when that could turn around. Maybe it can tonight in Chapel Hill. Here's more on the Tar Heels:
Record: 22-5, 10-3 ACC
Leading scorers: Junior forward Justin Jackson (18.5), junior guard Joel Berry II (15), senior forward Isaiah Hicks (12.6), senior forward Kennedy Meeks (12.6)
Leading rebounders: Meeks (9.2), freshman forward Tony Bradley (5.5), Hicks (5.4), junior forward Theo Pinson (5), Jackson (4.7)
Assist leaders: Berry (4), Pinson (3.4), senior guard Nate Britt (2.6), Jackson (2.5)
Notable: Bradley is averaging 7.8 points and Pinson 6.9. Sophomore guard Kenny Williams had knee
Best win: vs. then-No. 9 Florida State, 96-83 at home
Worst win: In December, at home, UNC beat Davidson 83-74. The Wildcats are now just 13-11 and 6-7 in the A-10.
Other wins: Tulane, Chattanooga, Long Beach State, Hawaii, Chaminade, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Radford, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Monmouth, Clemson, N.C. State (twice), Wake Forest, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Best loss: vs. then-No. 6 Kentucky, 103-100, in Las Vegas
Worst loss: at Georgia Tech, 75-63
Other losses: at Indiana, at Miami, at Duke
What North Carolina does well: Offense, The Tar Heels score 87.7 points per game (sixth), shoot 47.8 percent (37th), 37.1 percent from 3 (90th), and dish out 18.3 assists per game (third). They are the best rebounding team in the nation, averaging a +13.2 rebound margin, more than two boards more than second place SMU (+11). They also own a +1.49 assist-turnover margin (eighth) and average 12.8 turnovers (88th).
What North Carolina does poorly: The Heels struggle a little bit from the free throw line at 70.1 percent (163rd). They also are giving up 72.1 points per game (181st) on 42.2 percent shooting (105th), 34.9 percent on 3s (tied-175th).
UNC is a well-oiled offensive machine that scores and rebounds so well that defense doesn't have to be a priority. Now, if UVa tries to get into a drag race with the Tar Heels, it will lose. But I do think that a little more urgency on offense for the Cavaliers could be a good thing. I'm not sure where the happy medium is, but I think sometimes, UVa's offense gets bogged down by looking for just the right shot instead of attacking the basket. Sometimes. Other times, the method works to perfection, and someone gets an open shot they knock down. When games like Monday happen and the team is struggling to find its shot, maybe speeding up the pace a little or trying something different could help.
North Carolina is 22-5 and 10-3, but it does have flaws and has had a couple games go for it that could've went the other way. Tennessee, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame were all single-digit wins, and a couple of those teams just haven't been very good. So while I'm not expecting UVa to come up with the upset on the road, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing for the Wahoos to find their groove again. But, coming in off a cold-shooting game at home and as losers of three of their past four contests, winning at North Carolina is a very tough task. Virginia has the means to get back on track, and hopefully it does eventually, but I don't think it'll be today against the Tar Heels.
Gut feeling: North Carolina wins by 5-10 points.
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