Virginia
Last year: 2-10 (1-7 ACC)
Best win: vs. Central Michigan, 49-35 Worst loss: at Virginia Tech, 52-10
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (second year, 101-53 career)
Starters returning: 14 (5 offense, 8 defense, 0 specialists)
Offensive players to watch: QB Kurt Benkert. As a junior transfer from East Carolina last season, Benkert experienced several ups and downs. He has a rocket for an arm and passed for 2,552 yards and 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, so almost a 2-to-1 TD-INT ratio. His 2,552 yards passing yards rank sixth all time in a single season for UVa, and his 21 passing TDs ranked tied for second. But he completed under 60 percent of his attempts (56.2 percent) and his pocket awareness was suspect as he often spun out of trouble but into worse trouble, or spun way behind the line of scrimmage, putting the offense behind the sticks. It was revealed after the season that he hurt his shoulder early in the year. Perhaps he wasn't the same after that, a little gun shy. He was also coming off a knee surgery that knocked out his 2015 season. When he enrolled last season and then was named the starting QB, everyone thought we were getting a mobile quarterback. But Benkert wasn't that mobile and wasn't really a rushing threat, netting negative yardage for the season. Maybe he just isn't a weapon that can be used that way. But if he can get out of the pocket and on the run to make throws, he can become more effective -- essentially using what he does have to maximum efficiency. So speculation is that a healthy offseason has really helped Benkert. Fans obviously hope so, because he showed some really nice flashes last season -- there just weren't enough. For UVa to make any gains this year, he'll have to be one of the better versions of what we saw in 2016.
WR Olamide Zaccheaus. As a sophomore, Zaccheaus caught 51 passes (second on the team, one behind Taquan Mizzell) for 584 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 11.5 yards per reception. He also ran the ball for eight yards per carry, but only 24 yards -- do the math, and he got three carries. Compare that to 2015, when he had 33 carries as a true freshman -- a little more than two totes per game -- for 262 yards (7.9 yards per carry). Zaccheaus has the chance to be used in the Mizzell role from a year ago and be the offense's best weapon. Based on recent interviews with the staff and Benkert, it sounds like Zaccheaus will be utilized even more this season, which is great to hear, because he can be a very dynamic playmaker. He was bothered by a hamstring injury for a lot of 2016 as well, so maybe we can see an even shiftier, speedier Zaccheaus.
Last year: 2-10 (1-7 ACC)
Best win: vs. Central Michigan, 49-35 Worst loss: at Virginia Tech, 52-10
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (second year, 101-53 career)
Starters returning: 14 (5 offense, 8 defense, 0 specialists)
Offensive players to watch: QB Kurt Benkert. As a junior transfer from East Carolina last season, Benkert experienced several ups and downs. He has a rocket for an arm and passed for 2,552 yards and 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, so almost a 2-to-1 TD-INT ratio. His 2,552 yards passing yards rank sixth all time in a single season for UVa, and his 21 passing TDs ranked tied for second. But he completed under 60 percent of his attempts (56.2 percent) and his pocket awareness was suspect as he often spun out of trouble but into worse trouble, or spun way behind the line of scrimmage, putting the offense behind the sticks. It was revealed after the season that he hurt his shoulder early in the year. Perhaps he wasn't the same after that, a little gun shy. He was also coming off a knee surgery that knocked out his 2015 season. When he enrolled last season and then was named the starting QB, everyone thought we were getting a mobile quarterback. But Benkert wasn't that mobile and wasn't really a rushing threat, netting negative yardage for the season. Maybe he just isn't a weapon that can be used that way. But if he can get out of the pocket and on the run to make throws, he can become more effective -- essentially using what he does have to maximum efficiency. So speculation is that a healthy offseason has really helped Benkert. Fans obviously hope so, because he showed some really nice flashes last season -- there just weren't enough. For UVa to make any gains this year, he'll have to be one of the better versions of what we saw in 2016.
WR Olamide Zaccheaus. As a sophomore, Zaccheaus caught 51 passes (second on the team, one behind Taquan Mizzell) for 584 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 11.5 yards per reception. He also ran the ball for eight yards per carry, but only 24 yards -- do the math, and he got three carries. Compare that to 2015, when he had 33 carries as a true freshman -- a little more than two totes per game -- for 262 yards (7.9 yards per carry). Zaccheaus has the chance to be used in the Mizzell role from a year ago and be the offense's best weapon. Based on recent interviews with the staff and Benkert, it sounds like Zaccheaus will be utilized even more this season, which is great to hear, because he can be a very dynamic playmaker. He was bothered by a hamstring injury for a lot of 2016 as well, so maybe we can see an even shiftier, speedier Zaccheaus.
Defensive players to watch: LB Micah Kiser. Quin Blanding seems to get more attention, but after watching Kiser the past couple seasons, he might be my favorite player on the team. Soft spoken and articulate off the field, he has a different gear on the field when he seems to attack those he tackles. The senior's passion for the game is infectious and from the outside, he'd be a candidate for being the soul of the team. He's led the defense in tackles the past two seasons and last year racked up an incredible 134 tackles, 10 for loss, 6.5 sacks, one interception, seven pass breakups, and five forced fumbles.
S Quin Blanding. This senior has been great in his own right and is on several All-American lists, right up there with Kiser. Last season, he finished with 120 tackles, two for loss, two picks, and six pass breakups. There are still times where I wish was he was a little more forceful physically and more intimidating as a tackler. To me, he doesn't have the same ferocious-defensive-player aura that Kiser does.
Special teams player to watch: KR Joe Reed. As a true freshman, he ranked third in the ACC and 25th in the country with a kick return average of 25.1 yards. He also caught four passes for 72 yards and is expected to see a bigger role in the passing game in 2017.
Schedule: vs. William & Mary, vs. Indiana, vs. Connecticut, at Boise State, vs. Duke, at North Carolina, vs. Boston College, at Pittsburgh, vs. Georgia Tech, at Louisville, at Miami, vs. Virginia Tech.
Outlook: New coach Bronco Mendenhall came into the 2016 season promising big things. Well, maybe not championship-level big things, but when you have only sniffed the postseason once in the past eight years (stretch of 2008-2015, 2011 Chick-fil-A Bowl), bowl talk is a big deal. At the annual Paint the Town Orange event on the eve of the Richmond game, Mendenhall told fans to not make holiday plans, meaning he had coached BYU to 11 straight bowls and didn't plan on having that streak snapped just because he was in Charlottesville. Cold, hard reality set in the next day. The Spiders humiliated the Cavaliers, winning 37-20. It was an unfathomable 30-7 early in the fourth quarter. Clearly, UR looked like the ACC team, and UVa the CAA team. Except for a two-game stretch where Virginia beat Central Michigan and then Duke, Mendenhall's first season was a tough one. It ended with a crushing, 52-10 loss to archrival Virginia Tech, bringing the Cavaliers' record to 2-10, 1-7 ACC. Expectations have cooled now, and Mendenhall admits he would have undersold expectations at that event had he known what he knows now, that he was in for more than a rebuild.
There are reasons to be both pessimistic and optimistic things could change in 2017. On offense, despite the loss of Mizzell and Albert Reid out of the backfield, there's still plenty of potential at the position. Daniel Hamm at small back and Jordan Ellis at big back are the starters. Ellis has 135 yards and three TDs over his first two seasons, and Hamm has 462 yards and five TDs over four years. Hamm received a medical hardship waiver and extra year after missing most of 2013 with an injury. Possible freshmen that could see time are Jamari Peacock, Lamont Atkins, and PK Kier. The first-line receivers other than Zaccheaus are Andre Levrone, Doni Dowling, and Reed. Levrone and Dowling have shined during their careers at different points but have been held back by injuries. Dowling was last season's third-leading receiver with 50 catches for 626 yards and four TDs. Hasise Dubois and Warren Craft were bit-role players a season ago and could see more action in 2017 along with Reed. De'Vante Cross, who redshirted last season, was recruited as a QB but is listed on the season-opening depth chart second behind Levrone at one of the WR spots and is said to have the potential to be a dynamic playmaker. David Eldridge, who caught eight passes last season for an average of 22.2 yards per catch, transferred to James Madison. Also gone, to graduation, is Keeon Johnson, who caught 49 balls and three TDs. The offensive line's starters are listed as LT Dillon Reinkensmeyer, LG John Montelus, C Jake Fieler, RG RJ Proctor, and RT Brandon Pertile. Jack English is suspended for the first game but started at LT last season. Fieler, Proctor, English, and Jack McDonald are all returners with starting experience. The line as a whole is beefier than in 2016. Montelus (Notre Dame) and Pertile (Oklahoma State) are graduate transfers hoping to boost the line for a year as Mendenhall and the staff continue to try to build depth into the line, which was not a priority of the Mike London staff. Back at tight end is Evan Butts, who caught just seven passes for 46 yards and a score in 2016. The position is not emphasized in offensive coordinator Robert Anae's attack, but there are whispers that could be changing.
While the offense returns just a few playmakers, the defense is a little more intact, and several young players will probably benefit from having played as freshmen. Andrew Brown is back at defensive end for his senior season. Like Blanding and Kiser, he probably could have gotten a look from the NFL had he decided to forgo his final year. But he came back, and that should definitely help the DL. In 2016, Brown finally blossomed a bit and recorded 38 tackles, 13 for loss, and six sacks. Starting at nose tackle this year to replace Donte Wilkins is Eli Hanback, a sophomore who played at end last season and tallied 36 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and a sack. Juwan Moye starts at the other end spot after seeing a little bit of time last season as a true freshman. Other than Kiser at middle linebacker, the other starting LB spots this week are held down by Malcolm Cook, who is replacing Zach Bradshaw, Chris Peace, and Jordan Mack. Cook had a heart condition that held him out a year ago, but he is back for his final year hoping to contribute. The potential for him has always been there, but injuries have held him back. Peace, a junior, came on strong last year, recording 53 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and a pair of sacks. Mack introduced himself to the nation with a bone-crunching sack of Duke QB Daniel Jones in the end zone, resulting in a fumble and TD for Hanback in Virginia's victory last year. Mack finished his true freshman season with 40 tackles, four for loss, and 1.5 sacks. Linebackers Matt Terrell (Liberty), Landan Word (JMU), and Eric Gallon (Kansas State) all transferred, leaving depth a little light behind the starters. Terrell and Word both did some nice things last year, too. At cornerback, Tim Harris is back for his final year after missing most of last season with a shoulder injury. He has two picks in his career. Juan Thornhill starts on the other side after having a standout sophomore season, tallying 45 tackles, three for loss, a sack, three interceptions, seven pass breakups, and a forced fumble. Starting at the other safety spot beside Blanding and replacing Kelvin Rainey is Bryce Hall, who last year recorded 25 tackles, two picks, and four breakups as a true freshman.
After having a full year in the system and a full year of training and conditioning, hopefully UVa can finish more games than last season. The Wahoos only finished two in 2016 -- the two wins. And even then, UVa was beating Central Michigan 28-0 before blowing the margin completely. It recovered for a 49-35 win, but obviously losing the lead was disappointing. In the Duke game, the Blue Devils turned the ball over six times, but UVa won by just 14 points, 34-20. If it had been just three turnovers, would Virginia have won? Maybe not. So both victories were on shaky ground. But the other side to that is that the Cavs played well in a couple games that they should've won. "Well" might be a stretch for the Connecticut game, which UVa lost 13-10, but after blowing a 10-0 lead, UVa went down at the end of the game trying to go ahead or tie it. The final play was a rushed field goal kick to send the game to OT attempted by a kicker who had just started playing football. The Huskies outscored the Wahoos 10-0 in the fourth quarter. Hopefully UVa's kicking situation is better this year. A confluence of events last season left Virginia with no experienced kicker and no good options. Several players have competed to start this year. True freshman A.J. Meija is listed as the starter this week. At punter, junior Lester Coleman is slated to take over for the graduated Nicholas Conte, who had a very good career. More confidence in a kicker might have helped win a couple games last season. Virginia's biggest near victory last year and possibly the game where it played the best was the 32-25 loss to Louisville. UVa led throughout, but Lamar Jackson and Co. pulled out the win, outscoring Virginia 18-8 in the fourth. Virginia lost to Pittsburgh, 45-31, after leading throughout the first half before Benkert through a pick six in the final seconds. After the first quarter, Pitt outscored UVa 31-10. After this game, Benkert never looked the same I thought. He was terrific -- sans the pick six -- in the first half vs. the Panthers, but he seemed to be even more scared to let it rip after that play. Against Wake Forest, UVa came back from 17-6 down to lead 20-17. But Wake outscored UVa 10-0 in the fourth. Sound familiar? Putting together four quarters can be hard for a team learning to win. UVa needs to finish better this season if it is going to get going in the right direction.
If UVa is to make progress this year, it will probably have to do it early in the year. The at Pittsburgh, vs. Georgia Tech, at Louisville, at Miami, vs. Virginia Tech ending stretch is pretty brutal. The first seven games, five at Scott Stadium, are more winnable. Nothing is guaranteed for a team that was just 2-10, but in the opener, you hope that UVa looks better against W&M than it did against UR to begin last year's campaign. Indiana challenged Ohio State for awhile Thursday night, but lost 49-21. That is a game UVa can win. UConn has a new coach after firing Bob Diaco after a 3-9 season. Boise State will be tough but is not the world beater it once was. Duke and BC could be solid teams but obviously have had their own issues recently. Virginia has a real chance to be 4-1 going into the UNC game. I believe it. But we all know the 'Hoos can be worse than that. If Virginia is 2-3 or worse in its first five games, four wins could be a stretch. And that's all I'm really requesting this season. As sad as it is, four victories would be a tangible improvement. With a fairly forgiving schedule, a healthy QB returning who we've seen can make some great throws, some playmakers back Benkert can get the ball to, and a few top-level players on defense mixed in with promising young talent, there's no reason four wins isn't feasible in the second year of Mendenhall's system. UVa fans have become accustomed to losing, and the players have, too. Kiser said recently they just need that "breakthrough." They just need to learn to finish games and not get down when the rough patches come. Because boy, we know they will come. It's just the second season for Mendenhall in Charlottesville. Fans aren't asking much. But if Mendenhall can't win four games in 2017, the Virginia faithful will begin to wish he would make his own plans to take a long holiday vacation.
Win-loss prediction: 4-8 or 5-7
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