Last week: 6-3 Season: 46-23 (.667)
Note: Since I haven't said anything this year about it, I did some research and found out that I went 84-35 (.706) last year in picks, and in 2015, I went 100-40 (.714). So I'm a little behind in my average pace right now. What's more amazing is the national title game, which was a repeat matchup between Clemson and Alabama, was the difference in my prediction percentage from 2016 being the same or slightly worse than in 2015. In 2015, I correctly picked Alabama to beat Clemson, and I also picked the Tide last year. Had 'Bama repeated, I would've been 85-34 which is what? Yep, a .714 percentage. Crazy. Not only that, but the numbers after ".714" would've been the exact same as well.
This is an awesome college football weekend. There are four ranked vs. ranked matchups and almost all of them have playoff implications. Additionally, there are some intriguing ACC games.
Friday
Florida State at Boston College, 8 p.m. ESPN
Boston College 27, Florida State 24 (pick made before game, I swear)
Saturday
No. 8 Miami at North Carolina, Noon ESPN2
Miami 38, North Carolina 14
No. 11 Oklahoma State at No. 22 West Virginia, Noon ABC
West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 31
Louisville at Wake Forest, 12:20 p.m. ACC Network
Louisville 31, Wake Forest 27
National game of the week
No. 2 Penn State at No. 6 Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. Fox
Penn State blasted Michigan at home last week, setting up this huge matchup at The Horseshoe. This game is at Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions have looked better against a tougher schedule, having beaten Iowa and plucky upstart Northwestern on the road in addition to Michigan at home last week. Ohio State was beaten at home by Oklahoma, 31-16, and otherwise has wins over teams that have not looked good: Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska. Each team has a pretty easy victory over Indiana, though OSU struggled in the first half of that game. This should be a great contest that kicks off an amazing few hours for Fox, which then gets World Series Game 4 after this telecast. I just like the way PSU is playing right now better than OSU, but it will take a fantastic game from the Nittany Lions to win this on the road.
Penn State 26, Ohio State 24
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
No. 3 Georgia vs. Florida in Jacksonville, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Georgia 27, Florida 17
No. 4 TCU at No. 25 Iowa State, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
TCU 31, Iowa State 24
No. 14 N.C. State at No. 9 Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. NBC
Notre Dame 31, N.C. State 24
Duke at No. 13 Virginia Tech, 7:20 p.m. ACC Network
Virginia Tech 33, Duke 13
Georgia Tech at No. 7 Clemson, 8 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
Clemson 33, Georgia Tech 25
Virginia at Pittsburgh, 12:30 p.m. NBC Sports Washington
The Cavaliers get their second crack at a sixth win and bowl eligibility against the Panthers in what looks to be a game that will feature some rain. Pittsburgh is 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC, picking up its first victory in the conference last week by beating Duke, 24-17. Like last week, UVa gets to go for that sixth win against a team with a losing record. This is definitely the best chance UVa has remaining to pick up that elusive win. After Pitt, Virginia faces Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, and Virginia Tech, which have a combined record of 21-6. As we all saw, last week's attempt didn't go well. Pitt has yet to show the explosiveness that BC showed against Louisville coming into last week. Except for a 42-10 win over Rice, which is a terrible team, Pitt is averaging just 20.7 points and has yet to score more than 28 points in any other game. The Panthers even struggled with Youngstown State in their opener, winning 28-21. Then, they were blown out by Penn State (33-14), Oklahoma State (59-21), and Georgia Tech (35-17) before the Rice win. Following that stretch came a close loss to Syracuse (27-24) and another blowout defeat, this one to N.C. State (35-17), before the victory over Duke last week.
One thing you see in common, though, with Pitt and BC compared to Virginia is that the Panthers and Eagles have had a tougher schedule than UVa. Penn State is undefeated, Oklahoma State has one loss, Georgia Tech has two losses, N.C. State has one loss, and Syracuse and Duke are 4-4. Virginia has Boise State with two losses, Connecticut with four losses, UNC with seven losses, Indiana with four losses, and Duke and BC are 4-4. It of course would be no stretch to say that UVa would have losses to PSU, OSU, GT, and N.C. State. It's worth noting that both teams beat Duke by a touchdown.
Also like last week, Virginia needs to be prepared for a physical game. Similar to BC, Pitt comes in with a QB who hasn't been very accurate and has shown it wants to run the ball. Last week, junior Darrin Hall carried the ball 24 times for 254 yards and a trio of touchdowns. His most carries in a game before the Duke win came against Youngstown State when he had just 13 carries for 54 yards. In addition to Hall, Virginia will need to be wary of Qadree Ollison (283 yards, four TDs), safety Jordan Whitehead, who gets a few carries per game (147 yards, one TD), and special teams playmaker Quadree Henderson (135 yards). On defense, UVa is getting back linebacker Malcolm Cook this week, who hasn't played in a few weeks. He will be a welcome addition, but the 'Hoos will be without cornerback Juan Thornhill, who got hurt last weekend.
Virginia did an OK job on stopping the run last week. Surprisingly, BC was quite effective at passing, and the fact that UVa sold out to stop the run might have had something to do with that, so the Cavaliers will want to keep that in mind. At QB for Pitt, USC transfer Max Browne struggled to begin the year and then hurt his shoulder a few weeks ago and is out for the season. Ben DiNucci is now the man under center, and he has completed 54.8 percent of his passes for 761 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. He has some scrambling ability and has a rushing TD. When Pitt does go to the air, it has looked to Rafael Araujo-Lopes, who leads the team with 36 catches and has 443 yards and a touchdown. Speedster Jester Weah is a dangerous target, too, as he has compiled 27 catches for 458 yards and three touchdowns.
Pitt's defense has allowed a shade more than 29 points per game and is 65th in the country in rush defense, 116th in pass defense, and 103rd in total defense. So, this seems like another vulnerable unit, but UVa was unable to take advantage of BC's soft rush defense. Falling behind 24-0 definitely had something to do with that, though. Virginia moved the ball better against UNC than it did against BC, but still did not put a ton of points on the board. Finishing in the red zone will be a must for UVa as it has been getting there less and less. It needs to make the most of those opportunities.
One thing makes me feel better about this game, and another thing makes me feel pessimistic. The point in our favor is that as I'm finishing this post up, BC is crushing Florida State, 35-3, at home. FSU is having a massively disappointing year after starting the year ranked No. 2, but this makes me feel a little better about what BC did to UVa last week. The negative point has to do with the forecast. If it rains, which seems very likely, that would definitely be a point in favor of Pitt and its ground attack. Meanwhile, precipitation would make it that much harder for UVa to get its wavering passing game going. Plus, pass defense is the weakest part of the Panthers, and the Cavaliers might not be able to take full advantage.
You have to start wondering if UVa is going to put too much pressure on itself to get that sixth win. After the BC loss, linebacker Micah Kiser said, "We've got five opportunities left to get that number six, that sixth win." Clearly, it is on the players' minds. I'm sure the seniors like Kiser feel pressure to deliver Virginia to somewhere it hasn't been since 2011. If they are beginning to dwell on that, it is worrisome. In the rain, I'll take Pitt in a close game.
Pittsburgh 24, Virginia 20
Note: Since I haven't said anything this year about it, I did some research and found out that I went 84-35 (.706) last year in picks, and in 2015, I went 100-40 (.714). So I'm a little behind in my average pace right now. What's more amazing is the national title game, which was a repeat matchup between Clemson and Alabama, was the difference in my prediction percentage from 2016 being the same or slightly worse than in 2015. In 2015, I correctly picked Alabama to beat Clemson, and I also picked the Tide last year. Had 'Bama repeated, I would've been 85-34 which is what? Yep, a .714 percentage. Crazy. Not only that, but the numbers after ".714" would've been the exact same as well.
This is an awesome college football weekend. There are four ranked vs. ranked matchups and almost all of them have playoff implications. Additionally, there are some intriguing ACC games.
Friday
Florida State at Boston College, 8 p.m. ESPN
Boston College 27, Florida State 24 (pick made before game, I swear)
Saturday
No. 8 Miami at North Carolina, Noon ESPN2
Miami 38, North Carolina 14
No. 11 Oklahoma State at No. 22 West Virginia, Noon ABC
West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 31
Louisville at Wake Forest, 12:20 p.m. ACC Network
Louisville 31, Wake Forest 27
National game of the week
No. 2 Penn State at No. 6 Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. Fox
Penn State blasted Michigan at home last week, setting up this huge matchup at The Horseshoe. This game is at Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions have looked better against a tougher schedule, having beaten Iowa and plucky upstart Northwestern on the road in addition to Michigan at home last week. Ohio State was beaten at home by Oklahoma, 31-16, and otherwise has wins over teams that have not looked good: Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska. Each team has a pretty easy victory over Indiana, though OSU struggled in the first half of that game. This should be a great contest that kicks off an amazing few hours for Fox, which then gets World Series Game 4 after this telecast. I just like the way PSU is playing right now better than OSU, but it will take a fantastic game from the Nittany Lions to win this on the road.
Penn State 26, Ohio State 24
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
No. 3 Georgia vs. Florida in Jacksonville, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Georgia 27, Florida 17
No. 4 TCU at No. 25 Iowa State, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
TCU 31, Iowa State 24
No. 14 N.C. State at No. 9 Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. NBC
Notre Dame 31, N.C. State 24
Duke at No. 13 Virginia Tech, 7:20 p.m. ACC Network
Virginia Tech 33, Duke 13
Georgia Tech at No. 7 Clemson, 8 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
Clemson 33, Georgia Tech 25
Virginia at Pittsburgh, 12:30 p.m. NBC Sports Washington
The Cavaliers get their second crack at a sixth win and bowl eligibility against the Panthers in what looks to be a game that will feature some rain. Pittsburgh is 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC, picking up its first victory in the conference last week by beating Duke, 24-17. Like last week, UVa gets to go for that sixth win against a team with a losing record. This is definitely the best chance UVa has remaining to pick up that elusive win. After Pitt, Virginia faces Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, and Virginia Tech, which have a combined record of 21-6. As we all saw, last week's attempt didn't go well. Pitt has yet to show the explosiveness that BC showed against Louisville coming into last week. Except for a 42-10 win over Rice, which is a terrible team, Pitt is averaging just 20.7 points and has yet to score more than 28 points in any other game. The Panthers even struggled with Youngstown State in their opener, winning 28-21. Then, they were blown out by Penn State (33-14), Oklahoma State (59-21), and Georgia Tech (35-17) before the Rice win. Following that stretch came a close loss to Syracuse (27-24) and another blowout defeat, this one to N.C. State (35-17), before the victory over Duke last week.
One thing you see in common, though, with Pitt and BC compared to Virginia is that the Panthers and Eagles have had a tougher schedule than UVa. Penn State is undefeated, Oklahoma State has one loss, Georgia Tech has two losses, N.C. State has one loss, and Syracuse and Duke are 4-4. Virginia has Boise State with two losses, Connecticut with four losses, UNC with seven losses, Indiana with four losses, and Duke and BC are 4-4. It of course would be no stretch to say that UVa would have losses to PSU, OSU, GT, and N.C. State. It's worth noting that both teams beat Duke by a touchdown.
Also like last week, Virginia needs to be prepared for a physical game. Similar to BC, Pitt comes in with a QB who hasn't been very accurate and has shown it wants to run the ball. Last week, junior Darrin Hall carried the ball 24 times for 254 yards and a trio of touchdowns. His most carries in a game before the Duke win came against Youngstown State when he had just 13 carries for 54 yards. In addition to Hall, Virginia will need to be wary of Qadree Ollison (283 yards, four TDs), safety Jordan Whitehead, who gets a few carries per game (147 yards, one TD), and special teams playmaker Quadree Henderson (135 yards). On defense, UVa is getting back linebacker Malcolm Cook this week, who hasn't played in a few weeks. He will be a welcome addition, but the 'Hoos will be without cornerback Juan Thornhill, who got hurt last weekend.
Virginia did an OK job on stopping the run last week. Surprisingly, BC was quite effective at passing, and the fact that UVa sold out to stop the run might have had something to do with that, so the Cavaliers will want to keep that in mind. At QB for Pitt, USC transfer Max Browne struggled to begin the year and then hurt his shoulder a few weeks ago and is out for the season. Ben DiNucci is now the man under center, and he has completed 54.8 percent of his passes for 761 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. He has some scrambling ability and has a rushing TD. When Pitt does go to the air, it has looked to Rafael Araujo-Lopes, who leads the team with 36 catches and has 443 yards and a touchdown. Speedster Jester Weah is a dangerous target, too, as he has compiled 27 catches for 458 yards and three touchdowns.
Pitt's defense has allowed a shade more than 29 points per game and is 65th in the country in rush defense, 116th in pass defense, and 103rd in total defense. So, this seems like another vulnerable unit, but UVa was unable to take advantage of BC's soft rush defense. Falling behind 24-0 definitely had something to do with that, though. Virginia moved the ball better against UNC than it did against BC, but still did not put a ton of points on the board. Finishing in the red zone will be a must for UVa as it has been getting there less and less. It needs to make the most of those opportunities.
One thing makes me feel better about this game, and another thing makes me feel pessimistic. The point in our favor is that as I'm finishing this post up, BC is crushing Florida State, 35-3, at home. FSU is having a massively disappointing year after starting the year ranked No. 2, but this makes me feel a little better about what BC did to UVa last week. The negative point has to do with the forecast. If it rains, which seems very likely, that would definitely be a point in favor of Pitt and its ground attack. Meanwhile, precipitation would make it that much harder for UVa to get its wavering passing game going. Plus, pass defense is the weakest part of the Panthers, and the Cavaliers might not be able to take full advantage.
You have to start wondering if UVa is going to put too much pressure on itself to get that sixth win. After the BC loss, linebacker Micah Kiser said, "We've got five opportunities left to get that number six, that sixth win." Clearly, it is on the players' minds. I'm sure the seniors like Kiser feel pressure to deliver Virginia to somewhere it hasn't been since 2011. If they are beginning to dwell on that, it is worrisome. In the rain, I'll take Pitt in a close game.
Pittsburgh 24, Virginia 20
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