Virginia at VCU, 4 p.m. today CBS Sports Network
The Cavaliers have two wins under their belt to start the season and have a big game at VCU on Friday. The defense was great in both victories, while the offense was much smoother against Austin Peay in a 93-49 victory than it was against UNC Greensboro in a 60-48 win. Last season, UVa beat UNCG, 76-51, and the Spartans went 25-10. They returned a lot of players this season. The Governors have a first-year coach and went 11-19 last season. It's too early to know if UNCG is going to be solid, and Virginia's struggles were just showing that, or if the offensive struggles will be an issue going forward and Austin Peay is so bad that it made the Cavaliers' offense look much better. As such, I would also say that those two games did not significantly alter my prediction. Ideally, I should do this before any games are played, but the results were varied enough and the two foes are unknown enough that we don't know much yet. The road game against the Rams will be one more piece to the puzzle as we begin to assess this year's Wahoos. Neither team is as highly regarded as when they faced each other in back-to-back seasons from 2013-15. No. 14 VCU beat No. 25 Virginia, 59-56, in Charlottesville in the first meeting, and in the second meeting, No. 7 Virginia downed VCU, 74-57, in Richmond. The Rams have a new coach this season, Mike Rhoades, after Will Wade left for LSU after two years. Rhoades coached Rice for three seasons after some time under Shaka Smart at VCU, and before that, he was coach at Randolph-Macon for 10 seasons. Fans should expect to see some of the pressing action VCU was more known for when Smart was with VCU.
This is something I've been doing every year since the beginning of the 2010-11 season. I've done fairly well, but the team usually slightly outperforms my expectations. The one year I guessed more overall and ACC wins than the team ended up recording was two years ago, when the 'Hoos went to the Elite Eight for their best finish since 1995. Here's the breakdown of my predictions each year and how the team has actually done (regular season only):
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9)
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7)
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7)
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2)
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2)
My 2015-16 prediction: 25-5 (14-4); actual record: 24-6 (13-5)
*My 2016-17 prediction: 20-10 (10-8); actual record: 21-9 (11-7)
*Last season, my original prediction was 22-8, 12-6, but I changed it and took two wins away when Austin Nichols was kicked off the team.
All right, let's get to this season.
vs. UNCG - W (60-48)
vs. Austin Peay - W (93-49)
at VCU - W
vs. Monmouth - W
vs. Vanderbilt in Brooklyn - W
vs. Seton Hall or Rhode Island in Brooklyn - L
vs. Wisconsin - L
vs. Lehigh - W
at West Virginia - L
vs. Davidson - W
vs. Savannah State - W
vs. Hampton - W
vs. Boston College - W
at Virginia Tech - L
vs. North Carolina - W
vs. Syracuse - W
vs. N.C. State - W
at Georgia Tech - W
at Wake Forest - L
vs. Clemson - W
at Duke - L
vs. Louisville - W
at Syracuse - L
at Florida State - L
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Miami - L
vs. Georgia Tech - W
at Pittsburgh - W
at Louisville - L
vs. Notre Dame - W
Prediction: 20-10 (11-7 ACC)
The Cavaliers have two wins under their belt to start the season and have a big game at VCU on Friday. The defense was great in both victories, while the offense was much smoother against Austin Peay in a 93-49 victory than it was against UNC Greensboro in a 60-48 win. Last season, UVa beat UNCG, 76-51, and the Spartans went 25-10. They returned a lot of players this season. The Governors have a first-year coach and went 11-19 last season. It's too early to know if UNCG is going to be solid, and Virginia's struggles were just showing that, or if the offensive struggles will be an issue going forward and Austin Peay is so bad that it made the Cavaliers' offense look much better. As such, I would also say that those two games did not significantly alter my prediction. Ideally, I should do this before any games are played, but the results were varied enough and the two foes are unknown enough that we don't know much yet. The road game against the Rams will be one more piece to the puzzle as we begin to assess this year's Wahoos. Neither team is as highly regarded as when they faced each other in back-to-back seasons from 2013-15. No. 14 VCU beat No. 25 Virginia, 59-56, in Charlottesville in the first meeting, and in the second meeting, No. 7 Virginia downed VCU, 74-57, in Richmond. The Rams have a new coach this season, Mike Rhoades, after Will Wade left for LSU after two years. Rhoades coached Rice for three seasons after some time under Shaka Smart at VCU, and before that, he was coach at Randolph-Macon for 10 seasons. Fans should expect to see some of the pressing action VCU was more known for when Smart was with VCU.
This is something I've been doing every year since the beginning of the 2010-11 season. I've done fairly well, but the team usually slightly outperforms my expectations. The one year I guessed more overall and ACC wins than the team ended up recording was two years ago, when the 'Hoos went to the Elite Eight for their best finish since 1995. Here's the breakdown of my predictions each year and how the team has actually done (regular season only):
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9)
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7)
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7)
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2)
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2)
My 2015-16 prediction: 25-5 (14-4); actual record: 24-6 (13-5)
*My 2016-17 prediction: 20-10 (10-8); actual record: 21-9 (11-7)
*Last season, my original prediction was 22-8, 12-6, but I changed it and took two wins away when Austin Nichols was kicked off the team.
All right, let's get to this season.
vs. UNCG - W (60-48)
vs. Austin Peay - W (93-49)
at VCU - W
vs. Monmouth - W
vs. Vanderbilt in Brooklyn - W
vs. Seton Hall or Rhode Island in Brooklyn - L
vs. Wisconsin - L
vs. Lehigh - W
at West Virginia - L
vs. Davidson - W
vs. Savannah State - W
vs. Hampton - W
vs. Boston College - W
at Virginia Tech - L
vs. North Carolina - W
vs. Syracuse - W
vs. N.C. State - W
at Georgia Tech - W
at Wake Forest - L
vs. Clemson - W
at Duke - L
vs. Louisville - W
at Syracuse - L
at Florida State - L
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Miami - L
vs. Georgia Tech - W
at Pittsburgh - W
at Louisville - L
vs. Notre Dame - W
Prediction: 20-10 (11-7 ACC)
Not sure I agree that we'll lose to Seton Hall/Rhode Island, but I guess we do usually drop at least one game we clearly shouldn't lose every year.
ReplyDeleteMaybe not, both are quality teams ranked around where we are. LIke I've said, tough to get a feel on the team this season. Hopefully my prediction is near the floor of what we could be! Lots of swing games.
ReplyDelete