Last week: 8-1 Season: 72-40
I bounced back last week with a mostly easy slate of games and took care of business. This week's schedule is a little bit trickier, with several rivalry games always making it a little harder to pick.
Today
No. 2 Miami at Pittsburgh, Noon ABC
Miami 31, Pittsburgh 21
War on I-4
South Florida at No. 15 Central Florida, 3:30 p.m. ABC
Central Florida 34, South Florida 24
Saturday
Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate
No. 7 Georgia at Georgia Tech, Noon ABC
Georgia 27, Georgia Tech 17
The Game
No. 9 Ohio State at Michigan, Noon Fox
Ohio State 27, Michigan 13
Duke at Wake Forest, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
Wake Forest 38, Duke 31
National game of the week
Iron Bowl
No. 1 Alabama at No. 6 Auburn, 3:30 p.m. CBS
At least recently, this has been probably the best rivalry game in the sport, with several memorable and close games over the past decade. And this year's version is one of the most important. The winner captures the SEC West and will face Georgia in the SEC championship. If either team wins out, it likely gets to the College Football Playoff. Alabama would be a lock, and Auburn, even though it has two losses and no two-loss team has yet to make the CFP, is widely believed to be in if it beats Alabama and then Georgia. The Tide will have a shot even if it loses this game. Auburn would be out with three losses. The Tigers already won a huge game against Georgia in the regular season at home, 40-17. I like Auburn to edge its rival in a terrific contest, handing the Crimson Tide its first loss.
Auburn 31, Alabama 30
Battle for the Palmetto State
No. 3 Clemson at No. 24 South Carolina, 7:30 p.m. ESPN
Clemson 24, South Carolina 17
Apple Cup
No. 13 Washington State at No. 14 Washington, 8 p.m. Fox
Washington State 34, Washington 33
Today
Battle for the Commonwealth Cup
No. 25 Virginia Tech at Virginia, 8 p.m. ESPN
On the other side of rivalries opposite the Iron Bowl is this one. It's rarely made national headlines the past 15 years outside of blips on the radar in 2007 and 2011 when the winner went to the ACC championship. All Wahoos know the Hokies have dominated the series to the tune of 13 consecutive wins. But that doesn't mean the games haven't been close; that doesn't mean UVa hasn't had chances. In 2004, the year after the Cavaliers' most recent victory in the series, both teams were ranked, but the Hokies came away with a 24-10 win. In 2007, UVa had a lead before halftime, but then a pick set up the Hokies, and they scored a touchdown to snag the edge before the break and went on to win, 33-21. In 2008, Al Groh went with Vic Hall at QB, and the shifty runner surprised the Hokies and had UVa competitive the whole day. It was 17-14 Tech, and a long Hall run put UVa in Tech territory late. Hall came out of the game for a breather, and Marc Verica entered and threw an interception in the end zone. In 2012, UVa was up 14-7 with a chance to go up 17-7 on a field goal in the first half. Mike London called for the fake, though, and the Cavaliers did not get the first down. Tech ended up winning that one, 17-14, and that game was perhaps a turning point for London, because at the end of the game, he chose to freeze Tech's kicker twice on a short field goal when it was 14-14 instead of calling timeouts earlier to preserve time for his offense. But London still had two more great chances to win. In 2014, both teams were 5-6 and going for bowl eligibility. UVa took a 20-17 lead late in the game, but Tech drove down the field with the help of a roughing-the-passer penalty and won 24-20. And then in 2015, UVa also held a 13-6 advantage going into the fourth but lost, 23-20.
Many prognosticators think UVa has one of the better chances it has had since the losing streak began
tonight, but Tech is still a 7.5-point favorite. The Hokies aren't playing that well recently, getting blown out by Miami, 28-10, losing to Georgia Tech, 28-22, and then needing a goal-line stand last week against Pittsburgh to preserve a 20-14 win. In contrast, over the past few weeks UVa played both Miami and Georgia Tech better than the Hokies did. The Wahoos defeated the Yellow Jackets, 40-36, and last week, gave the Hurricanes everything they could handle through three quarters, including leads of 14-0 and 28-14, before Miami scored 30 straight points to win, 44-28. How UVa bounces back on a short week after a disappointing loss in which it played very well and had a chance to upset the No. 2 team in the country will be key tonight. Hopefully, UVa's players moved on as quickly as possible to get their minds right and focused on Tech.
UVa's passing game is positioned to take advantage of Tech a bit, because the Hokies have given up a good number of big plays, and they are dealing with some injuries on that side of the ball, meaning Kurt Benkert could have some chances at some deep shots to Andre Levrone. For the Hokies, safety Terrell Edmunds and defensive end Vinny Mihota are out, and cornerback Adonis Alexander and safety Mook Reynolds might not be available. Kicker Joey Slye might be out as well.
Those are some key injuries, and UVa has certainly had success passing the ball, but I don't think the 'Hoos will be able to run the ball very effectively. I like Jordan Ellis and his running style, but I doubt the holes will be there to really move the ball that way on Bud Foster's defense. That means UVa might have to rely heavily on the pass, and that could tip the scales back in Tech's favor, because Foster can send plenty of pressure to fluster Benkert, who we've seen is susceptible to throwing picks and making poor decisions when he feels, and sometime imagines, pressure. He's thrown one pick in each of the past five games. Even last week, when he was nearly perfect and finished 28 of 37 with four TDs, he threw a pick-6 that changed the complexion of the game. I have a bad feeling he could do the same tonight. Tech is only allowing 14.7 points per game.
Tech's offense seemed to be clicking early in the year but has struggled of late, not scoring more than 24 points since putting up 59 in a blowout of North Carolina on Oct. 21. Redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson has completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,600 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Jackson is a running threat who has rushed for 236 yards and four scores. Benkert's tally is at 60.4 percent for 2,876 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight picks. Tech has lacked a consistent run game this season, but the favored back last week against Pittsburgh was Deshawn McClease, and he picked up 70 yards on 14 carries. UVa has not been very good against the run, giving up 176.1 yards per game.
One thing that always worries me about this game is the mental state of the Cavaliers, which is why I referenced the fact that I hope they moved on quickly from the Miami loss. Virginia came out in that game looking like it had nothing to lose. The players seemed to attack the game the right way, and that is something they don't seem to do against Tech, for whatever reason. But Levrone said this week the coaching staff stressed that the players shouldn't try to beat the streak. They should try to beat the 2017 Hokies. UVa just needs to be better in one game, tonight, than Tech. I am uncertain, though, that UVa can have the right mindset. Even when they aren't playing well, the Hokies always seem to play at least a B+ game, and often at least an A- game, against the Wahoos. For defeating a team 13 straight times, it is amazing and oddly admirable to see how Tech gets up for this game year after year. You would think they'd get bored or have a letdown. But no. The Hokies often make it look like this is the biggest game on their schedule. That mental edge will, I think, create the confidence Tech could need in a close game in the fourth quarter, and unfortunately could grow the doubt UVa might experience that could make the difference.
Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 20
I bounced back last week with a mostly easy slate of games and took care of business. This week's schedule is a little bit trickier, with several rivalry games always making it a little harder to pick.
Today
No. 2 Miami at Pittsburgh, Noon ABC
Miami 31, Pittsburgh 21
War on I-4
South Florida at No. 15 Central Florida, 3:30 p.m. ABC
Central Florida 34, South Florida 24
Saturday
Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate
No. 7 Georgia at Georgia Tech, Noon ABC
Georgia 27, Georgia Tech 17
The Game
No. 9 Ohio State at Michigan, Noon Fox
Ohio State 27, Michigan 13
Duke at Wake Forest, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
Wake Forest 38, Duke 31
National game of the week
Iron Bowl
No. 1 Alabama at No. 6 Auburn, 3:30 p.m. CBS
At least recently, this has been probably the best rivalry game in the sport, with several memorable and close games over the past decade. And this year's version is one of the most important. The winner captures the SEC West and will face Georgia in the SEC championship. If either team wins out, it likely gets to the College Football Playoff. Alabama would be a lock, and Auburn, even though it has two losses and no two-loss team has yet to make the CFP, is widely believed to be in if it beats Alabama and then Georgia. The Tide will have a shot even if it loses this game. Auburn would be out with three losses. The Tigers already won a huge game against Georgia in the regular season at home, 40-17. I like Auburn to edge its rival in a terrific contest, handing the Crimson Tide its first loss.
Auburn 31, Alabama 30
Battle for the Palmetto State
No. 3 Clemson at No. 24 South Carolina, 7:30 p.m. ESPN
Clemson 24, South Carolina 17
Apple Cup
No. 13 Washington State at No. 14 Washington, 8 p.m. Fox
Washington State 34, Washington 33
Today
Battle for the Commonwealth Cup
No. 25 Virginia Tech at Virginia, 8 p.m. ESPN
On the other side of rivalries opposite the Iron Bowl is this one. It's rarely made national headlines the past 15 years outside of blips on the radar in 2007 and 2011 when the winner went to the ACC championship. All Wahoos know the Hokies have dominated the series to the tune of 13 consecutive wins. But that doesn't mean the games haven't been close; that doesn't mean UVa hasn't had chances. In 2004, the year after the Cavaliers' most recent victory in the series, both teams were ranked, but the Hokies came away with a 24-10 win. In 2007, UVa had a lead before halftime, but then a pick set up the Hokies, and they scored a touchdown to snag the edge before the break and went on to win, 33-21. In 2008, Al Groh went with Vic Hall at QB, and the shifty runner surprised the Hokies and had UVa competitive the whole day. It was 17-14 Tech, and a long Hall run put UVa in Tech territory late. Hall came out of the game for a breather, and Marc Verica entered and threw an interception in the end zone. In 2012, UVa was up 14-7 with a chance to go up 17-7 on a field goal in the first half. Mike London called for the fake, though, and the Cavaliers did not get the first down. Tech ended up winning that one, 17-14, and that game was perhaps a turning point for London, because at the end of the game, he chose to freeze Tech's kicker twice on a short field goal when it was 14-14 instead of calling timeouts earlier to preserve time for his offense. But London still had two more great chances to win. In 2014, both teams were 5-6 and going for bowl eligibility. UVa took a 20-17 lead late in the game, but Tech drove down the field with the help of a roughing-the-passer penalty and won 24-20. And then in 2015, UVa also held a 13-6 advantage going into the fourth but lost, 23-20.
Many prognosticators think UVa has one of the better chances it has had since the losing streak began
UVa's passing game is positioned to take advantage of Tech a bit, because the Hokies have given up a good number of big plays, and they are dealing with some injuries on that side of the ball, meaning Kurt Benkert could have some chances at some deep shots to Andre Levrone. For the Hokies, safety Terrell Edmunds and defensive end Vinny Mihota are out, and cornerback Adonis Alexander and safety Mook Reynolds might not be available. Kicker Joey Slye might be out as well.
Those are some key injuries, and UVa has certainly had success passing the ball, but I don't think the 'Hoos will be able to run the ball very effectively. I like Jordan Ellis and his running style, but I doubt the holes will be there to really move the ball that way on Bud Foster's defense. That means UVa might have to rely heavily on the pass, and that could tip the scales back in Tech's favor, because Foster can send plenty of pressure to fluster Benkert, who we've seen is susceptible to throwing picks and making poor decisions when he feels, and sometime imagines, pressure. He's thrown one pick in each of the past five games. Even last week, when he was nearly perfect and finished 28 of 37 with four TDs, he threw a pick-6 that changed the complexion of the game. I have a bad feeling he could do the same tonight. Tech is only allowing 14.7 points per game.
Tech's offense seemed to be clicking early in the year but has struggled of late, not scoring more than 24 points since putting up 59 in a blowout of North Carolina on Oct. 21. Redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson has completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,600 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Jackson is a running threat who has rushed for 236 yards and four scores. Benkert's tally is at 60.4 percent for 2,876 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight picks. Tech has lacked a consistent run game this season, but the favored back last week against Pittsburgh was Deshawn McClease, and he picked up 70 yards on 14 carries. UVa has not been very good against the run, giving up 176.1 yards per game.
One thing that always worries me about this game is the mental state of the Cavaliers, which is why I referenced the fact that I hope they moved on quickly from the Miami loss. Virginia came out in that game looking like it had nothing to lose. The players seemed to attack the game the right way, and that is something they don't seem to do against Tech, for whatever reason. But Levrone said this week the coaching staff stressed that the players shouldn't try to beat the streak. They should try to beat the 2017 Hokies. UVa just needs to be better in one game, tonight, than Tech. I am uncertain, though, that UVa can have the right mindset. Even when they aren't playing well, the Hokies always seem to play at least a B+ game, and often at least an A- game, against the Wahoos. For defeating a team 13 straight times, it is amazing and oddly admirable to see how Tech gets up for this game year after year. You would think they'd get bored or have a letdown. But no. The Hokies often make it look like this is the biggest game on their schedule. That mental edge will, I think, create the confidence Tech could need in a close game in the fourth quarter, and unfortunately could grow the doubt UVa might experience that could make the difference.
Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 20
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