Bowls: 3-0 Season: 88-44
I'm off to a good start with my ACC bowl predictions. Let's see if I can keep it up as the 'Hoos and Hokies play in their postseason contests. But it would be nice to be wrong about UVa's result.
Today
Military Bowl in Annapolis, Md.
Virginia (6-6) at Navy (6-6), 1:30 p.m. ESPN
The Cavaliers play in their first bowl game since 2011 when they face the Midshipmen on Navy's home field. Virginia lost to Auburn, 43-24, in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl the last time it went to the postseason. Navy, meanwhile, has been to 13 bowls in the past 14 years, going 6-7 in those matchups. Last year, Navy lost in the Armed Forces Bowl to Louisiana Tech, 48-45. Two years ago, the Midshipmen played in this game and defeated Pittsburgh, 44-28. Both of these squads come in on slides. Virginia started 5-1 but lost five of its past six games. The Cavaliers beat Georgia Tech, 40-37, at home in early November to secure bowl eligibility. Navy started even better, 5-0, but lost six of seven down the stretch, including 14-13 to rival Army on Dec. 9. It was the Black Knights' second victory in a row in the series after Navy had won 14 straight. The Midshipmen secured bowl eligibility by edging SMU, 43-40, at home Nov. 11, the Saturday after UVa topped Georgia Tech. SMU finished the regular season 6-6. The only other team to finish at least .500 that Navy beat this season was Florida Atlantic in the season opener, and one has to wonder if that would have happened
had the Midshipmen faced the Owls later in the season. FAU really got things going under Lane Kiffin after a few games and ended up finishing 10-3 with a bowl win. Navy runs a triple-option offense under 10th-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, who is 83-48 at the school. UVa coach Bronco Mendenhall has said he enjoys scheming to stop the triple option and, despite allowing 29 offensive points to Georgia Tech, which operates a similar attack, the Cavaliers only gave up 220 rushing yards to the Yellow Jackets, well below their season average. Navy, which is going with sophomore Malcolm Perry at QB over senior Zach Abey in this game, is second in the country to only Army in rushing yards per game at 343. Navy's defense is middling, giving up 386.6 yards per game, 59th in the country. Virginia's ranks 36th, giving up 357.8 yards per game. Its offense is 100th at 356.2 yards per game. Kurt Benkert is the first Virginia QB to finish with more than 3,000 passing yards in a season, as he finished with 3,062. Matt Schaub, who threw for 2,976 in 2002, held the school record before Benkert. After starting out hot against Miami, Virginia's offense cooled significantly and then was shut out against Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers haven't scored a touchdown since the 12:21 mark of the third quarter of their loss to the Hurricanes. Virginia has a good chance to get back on track on offense and win this game, which would be its first bowl victory since beating Minnesota in the 2005 Music City Bowl. However, Navy has a few factors going in its favor. It is more used to bowl games and the preparation they take, and it is playing on its home field. A ground attack will probably have an inherent advantage compared to the passing attack employed by Virginia in cold temperatures, and it is supposed to be below freezing during the game. I love Micah Kiser, Quin Blanding and company, but Navy will probably look like a better version of Georgia Tech. Perry is the young QB who sparked the Midshipmen to 43 points against SMU. They see their future with hi and are giving him this opportunity to get his era off on the right foot. And Navy's defense, which is subpar, is going against an offense that finished the regular season in a cold spell, which could help the Midshipmen find an edge. Therefore, I'm going to take Navy in what should be a close game.
Navy 24, Virginia 21
Camping World Bowl in Orlando
No. 22 Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. No. 19 Oklahoma State (9-3), 5:15 p.m. ESPN
This game is being billed as one of the better matchups of the bowl season. Bud Foster's defense gets to go against Mike Gundy's offense. The Cowboys rank third in the country, scoring 46.3 points per game behind QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington. The Hokies, meanwhile, allow just 13.5 ppg, fifth fewest in the nation, and are keyed by linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Andrew Motuapuaka. Oklahoma State gives up about 30 points per game, but Virginia Tech's offense did not perform as well at the end of the season as it did at the beginning. Redshirt freshman QB Josh Jackson had 17 touchdowns and four picks in the first eight games of the season, but then just two touchdowns with four interceptions in the past four games. Also, star receiver Cam Phillips is out after having sports hernia surgery. I think Tech will do a good job of holding down OSU for large parts of the game, but I don't think it'll do quite enough, and the offense won't quite be able to keep up, either.
Oklahoma State 31, Virginia Tech 27
I'm off to a good start with my ACC bowl predictions. Let's see if I can keep it up as the 'Hoos and Hokies play in their postseason contests. But it would be nice to be wrong about UVa's result.
Today
Military Bowl in Annapolis, Md.
Virginia (6-6) at Navy (6-6), 1:30 p.m. ESPN
The Cavaliers play in their first bowl game since 2011 when they face the Midshipmen on Navy's home field. Virginia lost to Auburn, 43-24, in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl the last time it went to the postseason. Navy, meanwhile, has been to 13 bowls in the past 14 years, going 6-7 in those matchups. Last year, Navy lost in the Armed Forces Bowl to Louisiana Tech, 48-45. Two years ago, the Midshipmen played in this game and defeated Pittsburgh, 44-28. Both of these squads come in on slides. Virginia started 5-1 but lost five of its past six games. The Cavaliers beat Georgia Tech, 40-37, at home in early November to secure bowl eligibility. Navy started even better, 5-0, but lost six of seven down the stretch, including 14-13 to rival Army on Dec. 9. It was the Black Knights' second victory in a row in the series after Navy had won 14 straight. The Midshipmen secured bowl eligibility by edging SMU, 43-40, at home Nov. 11, the Saturday after UVa topped Georgia Tech. SMU finished the regular season 6-6. The only other team to finish at least .500 that Navy beat this season was Florida Atlantic in the season opener, and one has to wonder if that would have happened
Navy 24, Virginia 21
Camping World Bowl in Orlando
No. 22 Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. No. 19 Oklahoma State (9-3), 5:15 p.m. ESPN
This game is being billed as one of the better matchups of the bowl season. Bud Foster's defense gets to go against Mike Gundy's offense. The Cowboys rank third in the country, scoring 46.3 points per game behind QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington. The Hokies, meanwhile, allow just 13.5 ppg, fifth fewest in the nation, and are keyed by linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Andrew Motuapuaka. Oklahoma State gives up about 30 points per game, but Virginia Tech's offense did not perform as well at the end of the season as it did at the beginning. Redshirt freshman QB Josh Jackson had 17 touchdowns and four picks in the first eight games of the season, but then just two touchdowns with four interceptions in the past four games. Also, star receiver Cam Phillips is out after having sports hernia surgery. I think Tech will do a good job of holding down OSU for large parts of the game, but I don't think it'll do quite enough, and the offense won't quite be able to keep up, either.
Oklahoma State 31, Virginia Tech 27
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