NFL wild card Sunday picks

Saturday record: 0-2

Just like everyone thought, the Titans and Falcons won on the road Saturday. Atlanta was a somewhat popular pick because of its experience, whereas Los Angeles was a playoff newcomer, but I don't think anyone was picking Tennessee to up end Kansas City, and it had to come back from 21-3 down at that. Andy Reid's odd play-calling strikes again. Run the ball! On to Sunday's games:

Bills (9-7) at Jaguars (10-6), 1:05 p.m. CBS
Also just like everyone thought, a January 2018 matchup pitting -- cue the Chris Berman voice -- the Bills and Jaguars?? Indeed. Buffalo needed a couple things to happen last week to get into the playoffs. First, the Bills needed to beat the Dolphins. They did so, 22-16. But then they needed the Bengals to win in Baltimore, a more unlikely outcome. Facing a fourth-and-12 at midfield down 27-24, though, Bengals QB Andy Dalton found Tyler Boyd for a long TD pass that shocked the NFL world and sent the Bills to the postseason for the first time since 1999. It was something that seems like it would normally go against the unlucky Bills. Buffalo fans were so thankful that they began donating to Dalton's foundation, which provides money to families with children who have chronic illnesses or special needs. This week alone, the foundation has received more than $300,000, most in the form of $17 per pop, the number of years it's been since Buffalo was in the playoffs. The next time someone tells you sports don't matter, just tell them this story. How cool. Something on the field benefits an extremely worthy cause off it.

In the game, I like Jacksonville. Blake Bortles has actually been more than serviceable at QB recently, and the Jaguars have a great running game led by rookie Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense, another patterned after Seattle's (like Atlanta), has been one of the league's best. Buffalo might be without its best weapon, RB LeSean McCoy, but word was late Saturday night that he was expected to play. I just think the Bills are still a little too limited offensively, and Jacksonville will get it done with its defense. The Bills' defense has been good, too, though, so I expect a close and low-scoring game.
Jaguars 16, Bills 13

Panthers (11-5) at Saints (11-5), 4:40 p.m. Fox
Two NFC South rivals meet in Sunday's second game. New Orleans lost in Week 17 to Tampa Bay, opening the door for Carolina to win the division title and host this game, but the Panthers lost to the Falcons. The Saints are hosts because they swept the season series from the Panthers, winning in Charlotte in Week 3, 34-13, and then in New Orleans in Week 13, 31-21. I don't have a strong reason to believe that the outcome will be different this time. Sometimes, people say it is tough to beat a team three times in a season, but I don't know if the stats bear that out, especially when one team dominates the other like New Orleans has Carolina this season. The Saints have had an improved defense all year, and the offense didn't rely on Drew Brees making plays through the air. Instead, the Saints relied on a dynamic running game, with Mark Ingram the bruising inside runner and sensational rookie Alvin Kamara being the speed merchant. Together, they amassed more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Carolina's formula, as it has been in recent seasons, is to rely on a running game and tough defense. Jonathan Stewart is the Panthers' main back, but QB Cam Newton is their leading rusher. They, too, have had a dynamic rookie, Christian McCaffrey, who ran for more than 400 yards and led the team with 80 catches while scoring seven touchdowns. But I just don't think the Panthers have enough ways and weapons to attack an improved Saints' defense at home. Surely, the Superdome will be rocking. One thing to watch is that Carolina tight end Greg Olsen, who hurt his foot this season, will play the Saints for the first time this year. He only played in seven games, though, with 17 catches, so it remains to be seen if he will be a big factor.
Saints 27, Panthers 20

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