NFL conference title picks

Divisional round: 4-0 Playoffs: 6-2

Today's conference championship games bring together the old guard and the new guard at quarterback. Veterans Tom Brady and Drew Brees in one corner against Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff in the other. The coaching matchups are great, too. The games include two Super Bowl-winning coaches in Bill Belichick and Sean Payton, one veteran who is recognized as a great coach but has never broken through to win the big one, Andy Reid, and an almost-33-year-old offensive guru who is already making a name for himself, Sean McVay.

One thing all of these teams have in common is offense. The phrase "defense wins championships" seems to have never been on more life support than now, although it is what could provide the edge this weekend. These are the top four offenses in the league in terms of points scored, the first time in history that the last four teams left share that distinction. The best defenses in terms of points allowed are either out of the playoffs or never even made it: Bears, Ravens, Titans, Texans, and Jaguars (Houston and Jacksonville were tied at 19.8 ppg).

Both games are rematches from the regular season, and those contests were a couple of the best games of the season. So sit back and enjoy the action today. We should be in for a good show.

NFC championship
Rams (14-3) at Saints (14-3), 3:05 p.m. Fox
Los Angeles held on last week against Dallas, 30-22, to earn another chance at knocking off the Saints in New Orleans. The Saints fell behind the Super Bowl champion Eagles 14-0 before rebounding for a 20-14 victory. On Nov. 4, the Saints beat the Rams, 45-35, L.A.'s first loss of the season. New Orleans went ahead 35-14 before the Rams tied it at 35 early in the fourth quarter. Brees passed for four touchdowns and 346 yards, and Goff recorded three TDs, one pick, and 391 yards. The Rams ran for more yards per carry (4.8) than the Saints (4.3), but they fell behind and couldn't run it as much, gaining just 92 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the Saints had 141. Todd Gurley
caught six passes, but New Orleans' defense limited him to 11 reception yards. Brandin Cooks went off for Los Angeles racking up six catches, 114 yards, and a touchdown, but that wasn't much compared to the Saints' Michael Thomas, who torched the Rams for 12 receptions, 211 yards, and a score. It sounds obvious to say, but the Rams will have a much better chance this time around if they can stick with the Saints early instead of letting them build a big lead. The Superdome will surely be rocking. The Saints lost their first game of the year there against the Buccaneers, but only one after that, in a meaningless Week 17 game vs. the Panthers. Neither team looked awesome last week, but they both look to have shaken off some rust they may have had from sitting out a week. New Orleans is a three-point favorite as of late Saturday night. McVay and the Rams will have their day soon, I believe, but for this year, I'm taking the Saints to go back to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2009 season, when Brees and Payton won in their only appearance.
Saints 34, Rams 31

AFC championship
Patriots (12-5) at Chiefs (13-4), 6:30 p.m. CBS
Belichick and Brady are looking for their sixth Super Bowl title together. Meanwhile, Reid has a had ton of good teams and reached the Super Bowl once with the Eagles more than a decade ago, but did not win it; that loss came against whom? That's right, Brady and Belichick. And Mahomes is just a kid, but he is amazing the league with his unique throwing ability. New England reminded everyone last week how dominant it can be, turning its divisional game against the Chargers (who many analysts picked to win) into a laugher that it won 41-28, and it wasn't that close. Kansas City also stopped the streaking Colts with a rather boring 31-13 win at home. This one should be good, though. Just like the Rams-Saints regular-season game, these two teams played one of the year's best games on Oct. 15 in New England, with the Patriots winning, 43-40. The Patriots led 24-9 at the half, but it was just 27-26 New England going into the fourth quarter. Brady threw for 340 yards and a touchdown and also rushed for a score. Mahomes passed for 352 yards and four TDs, but also two picks. Kareem Hunt,
who is no longer with the Chiefs, had 80 rushing yards but the team had 94, while Sony Michel had 106 yards and two scores for the Pats, and the team finished with 173. Tyreek Hill had seven catches for 142 yards and a trio of TDs for Kansas City, while New England spread out the wealth among Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, Julian Edelman, James White, and Josh Gordon (not on the team anymore). The Chiefs are favored by three, and home-field advantage could prove to be the edge that they ride over the Patriots in the rematch. But something just tells me to pick the ever-consistent Patriots, and though it would be cool to see Mahomes in the Super Bowl, it would be just as awesome to get one Super Bowl duel between Brady and Brees, the oldest QBs in the league, before they retire. Belichick and the Patriots put together a nice defensive plan last week for the Chargers, and I think they might be able to step up on that side of the ball and slow down the Chiefs just enough while Brady steps up and makes one or two more plays and Kansas City's defense falters just a bit.
Patriots 31, Chiefs 30

Comments