Note: I'd like to take a moment to recognize the passing of former Virginia football coach George Welsh. VirginiaSports.com reported Friday that "The Old Salt" died with his family by his side Wednesday. He was 85. In the coming days, I plan on having a write-up in this space about Welsh. Until then, RIP to the greatest football coach in Cavaliers history.
No. 9 Florida State (12-1) at No. 4 Virginia (12-0), 3 p.m. ESPN2
The hardwood 'Hoos are 12-0 and rarely got challenged in the nonconference portion of their schedule. It was probably one of their easier pre-ACC slates in recent seasons. I think it would've been better for them to be challenged more, but the ACC schedule offers plenty of opportunities for big wins and will naturally give Virginia the NCAA tournament-resume boost it needs should it matter in seeding. That is to say if UVa goes 13-5, for instance, in the ACC, it will probably still be a strong candidate for a No. 1 seed, depending on what happens in the conference tournament.
And to be fair, several opponents Virginia played were stronger foes when the games were scheduled, such as George Washington, Dayton, Middle Tennessee, VCU, and South Carolina. And Marshall, which won an NCAA tournament game last season, gave up the first 100-point game under Tony Bennett on Monday in what happened to be his 300th head coaching win overall. And walk-on Grant Kersey hit the 3-pointer that landed the Wahoos on the century mark. It was a special day indeed.
UVa's schedule has maybe been a little soft so far, but the Cavaliers are jumping right into the deep end in conference play with five games in 15 days, three of which are on the road, and three of which are against top-10 teams.
First up is No. 9 Florida State at John Paul Jones Arena on Saturday. Let's take a look at the profile of the Seminoles:
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Terance Mann (13.1), sophomore forward Mfiondu Kabengele (11.8), junior guard Trent Forrest (10.7)
Leading rebounders: Mann (6.8), senior center Christ Koumadje (5.8), Kabengele (4.6), Forrest (4.5)
Assist leaders: Forrest (3.6), Mann (2)
Notable: Forrest averages 2.4 steals. After the top three scorers, the Seminoles have six players averaging at least 5.6 points, and 11 players average double-figure minutes. Sophomore guard M.J. Walker averages 8.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. Koumadje, who is 7-foot-4, blocks 1.6 shots per game. Fifth-year senior forward Phil Cofer injured his right foot before the season but is back now and has played in three games. Most recently, he played 28 minutes and scored 14 points as FSU held off an upset bid by Winthrop, 87-76. He led the team in scoring at 12.8 ppg when the 'Noles went to the Elite Eight last season.
Best win: Then-No. 19 LSU, 79-76 in overtime, on Nov. 23 at the AdvoCare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
Worst win: Winthrop at home Tuesday. The Eagles are 8-5.
Other wins: Florida, Tulane, Canisius, UAB, Purdue, Troy, Connecticut, Southeastern Missouri, North Florida, Saint Louis
Loss: Unranked Villanova, 66-60, on Nov. 25 at the AdvoCare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
What Florida State does well: FSU scores 81.3 ppg (53rd), shoots 47 percent overall (93rd), and makes 74.8 percent of its shots from the charity stripe (40th). FSU is normally full of tall players who are good rebounders, and this season is no exception. The 'Noles are +6.1 in rebounding margin (47th). They also grab 8.7 steals per game (25th) and give up 68.4 ppg (104th).
What Florida State doesn't do well: The Seminoles aren't always the cleanest team, and indeed this year, they are +.83 in assist-turnover ratio (298th) and average 15.3 turnovers (299th). FSU makes just 34.2 percent of its 3-pointers (183rd). It also averages just 12.7 assists (254th), an indicator it doesn't move the ball particularly well.
It is tough to imagine this not being a close game. After a softer schedule, ACC play hits hard. Last year's ACC opener for Virginia, also at home, came against Boston College, which was coming off a home win over then-No. 1 Duke. UVa won by a point. Last season, UVa faced FSU just once, in Tallahassee, and was down 11 before rallying for a 59-55 victory. Before that, the Seminoles had two straight wins over the 'Hoos, 60-58 in Charlottesville two seasons ago and 69-62 three seasons ago at FSU.
Florida State is always a big, physical team that gives UVa problems. With such a big lineup, I expect Virginia will start Mamadi Diakite again as opposed to Kihei Clark, who has four starts. Clark is tiny, and Diakite is 6-8. He has started the past three games and six overall and played well in the recent starts. He seems to be better at providing energy right away as opposed to off the bench. In his past three starts, Diakite is averaging 8.3 points and 5 rebounds. He also had two blocks against Marshall. In the three games before those recent starts when he was a substitute, he averaged 3 points and 3 boards.
Even though FSU doesn't shoot great from beyond the arc, there are a few players the 'Hoos should keep an eye on: Mann (43.5 percent), Walker (42.5), and senior guard David Nichols (42.1), who is a transfer from Alabama and thus a former teammate of Braxton Key. And in his short time back, Cofer is 4 of 7 on 3-pointers.
Virginia might have had an easier time in this game if Cofer wasn't back, but he is a major addition. The Wahoos are nine-point favorites, and that seems way too high for me. I think that would be a tough cover even without Cofer, but with him, it seems pretty crazy. If UVa can win by 10 or more, I'd be very impressed. FSU hasn't been dominating its competition like UVa, and does have the one loss (albeit to the defending champions), but given its athletes, the recent history of this series, and the juice coming into an ACC opener, this just feels like a close game is a-brewing.
Keep an eye on is something I failed to mention in my last post when the team was 8-0. Have you guys noticed Virginia putting a little more full-court pressure on this year? It is something Bennett seems to be tinkering with, but with UVa down on the scoreboard so little time so far, it's unclear how much the 'Hoos might use it in a close game. But I like it as a new look and change of pace. Teams have been so used to going against the Pack-Line defense that making them think about one more wrinkle and/or having to take more time getting the ball up the court can only help. I would however think that Bennett will want the players rested for the half-court 'D.' I'm sure the 'Hoos won't be a pressure-oriented team anytime soon, but it has been interesting to see it being utilized some, and fans and commentators have taken note.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
No. 9 Florida State (12-1) at No. 4 Virginia (12-0), 3 p.m. ESPN2
The hardwood 'Hoos are 12-0 and rarely got challenged in the nonconference portion of their schedule. It was probably one of their easier pre-ACC slates in recent seasons. I think it would've been better for them to be challenged more, but the ACC schedule offers plenty of opportunities for big wins and will naturally give Virginia the NCAA tournament-resume boost it needs should it matter in seeding. That is to say if UVa goes 13-5, for instance, in the ACC, it will probably still be a strong candidate for a No. 1 seed, depending on what happens in the conference tournament.
And to be fair, several opponents Virginia played were stronger foes when the games were scheduled, such as George Washington, Dayton, Middle Tennessee, VCU, and South Carolina. And Marshall, which won an NCAA tournament game last season, gave up the first 100-point game under Tony Bennett on Monday in what happened to be his 300th head coaching win overall. And walk-on Grant Kersey hit the 3-pointer that landed the Wahoos on the century mark. It was a special day indeed.
UVa's schedule has maybe been a little soft so far, but the Cavaliers are jumping right into the deep end in conference play with five games in 15 days, three of which are on the road, and three of which are against top-10 teams.
First up is No. 9 Florida State at John Paul Jones Arena on Saturday. Let's take a look at the profile of the Seminoles:
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Terance Mann (13.1), sophomore forward Mfiondu Kabengele (11.8), junior guard Trent Forrest (10.7)
Leading rebounders: Mann (6.8), senior center Christ Koumadje (5.8), Kabengele (4.6), Forrest (4.5)
Notable: Forrest averages 2.4 steals. After the top three scorers, the Seminoles have six players averaging at least 5.6 points, and 11 players average double-figure minutes. Sophomore guard M.J. Walker averages 8.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. Koumadje, who is 7-foot-4, blocks 1.6 shots per game. Fifth-year senior forward Phil Cofer injured his right foot before the season but is back now and has played in three games. Most recently, he played 28 minutes and scored 14 points as FSU held off an upset bid by Winthrop, 87-76. He led the team in scoring at 12.8 ppg when the 'Noles went to the Elite Eight last season.
Best win: Then-No. 19 LSU, 79-76 in overtime, on Nov. 23 at the AdvoCare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
Worst win: Winthrop at home Tuesday. The Eagles are 8-5.
Other wins: Florida, Tulane, Canisius, UAB, Purdue, Troy, Connecticut, Southeastern Missouri, North Florida, Saint Louis
Loss: Unranked Villanova, 66-60, on Nov. 25 at the AdvoCare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
What Florida State does well: FSU scores 81.3 ppg (53rd), shoots 47 percent overall (93rd), and makes 74.8 percent of its shots from the charity stripe (40th). FSU is normally full of tall players who are good rebounders, and this season is no exception. The 'Noles are +6.1 in rebounding margin (47th). They also grab 8.7 steals per game (25th) and give up 68.4 ppg (104th).
What Florida State doesn't do well: The Seminoles aren't always the cleanest team, and indeed this year, they are +.83 in assist-turnover ratio (298th) and average 15.3 turnovers (299th). FSU makes just 34.2 percent of its 3-pointers (183rd). It also averages just 12.7 assists (254th), an indicator it doesn't move the ball particularly well.
It is tough to imagine this not being a close game. After a softer schedule, ACC play hits hard. Last year's ACC opener for Virginia, also at home, came against Boston College, which was coming off a home win over then-No. 1 Duke. UVa won by a point. Last season, UVa faced FSU just once, in Tallahassee, and was down 11 before rallying for a 59-55 victory. Before that, the Seminoles had two straight wins over the 'Hoos, 60-58 in Charlottesville two seasons ago and 69-62 three seasons ago at FSU.
Florida State is always a big, physical team that gives UVa problems. With such a big lineup, I expect Virginia will start Mamadi Diakite again as opposed to Kihei Clark, who has four starts. Clark is tiny, and Diakite is 6-8. He has started the past three games and six overall and played well in the recent starts. He seems to be better at providing energy right away as opposed to off the bench. In his past three starts, Diakite is averaging 8.3 points and 5 rebounds. He also had two blocks against Marshall. In the three games before those recent starts when he was a substitute, he averaged 3 points and 3 boards.
Even though FSU doesn't shoot great from beyond the arc, there are a few players the 'Hoos should keep an eye on: Mann (43.5 percent), Walker (42.5), and senior guard David Nichols (42.1), who is a transfer from Alabama and thus a former teammate of Braxton Key. And in his short time back, Cofer is 4 of 7 on 3-pointers.
Virginia might have had an easier time in this game if Cofer wasn't back, but he is a major addition. The Wahoos are nine-point favorites, and that seems way too high for me. I think that would be a tough cover even without Cofer, but with him, it seems pretty crazy. If UVa can win by 10 or more, I'd be very impressed. FSU hasn't been dominating its competition like UVa, and does have the one loss (albeit to the defending champions), but given its athletes, the recent history of this series, and the juice coming into an ACC opener, this just feels like a close game is a-brewing.
Keep an eye on is something I failed to mention in my last post when the team was 8-0. Have you guys noticed Virginia putting a little more full-court pressure on this year? It is something Bennett seems to be tinkering with, but with UVa down on the scoreboard so little time so far, it's unclear how much the 'Hoos might use it in a close game. But I like it as a new look and change of pace. Teams have been so used to going against the Pack-Line defense that making them think about one more wrinkle and/or having to take more time getting the ball up the court can only help. I would however think that Bennett will want the players rested for the half-court 'D.' I'm sure the 'Hoos won't be a pressure-oriented team anytime soon, but it has been interesting to see it being utilized some, and fans and commentators have taken note.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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