Miami (9-11, 1-7) at No. 3 Virginia (19-1, 7-1), 2 p.m. ACC Network
The bad news: Virginia played one of its worst games of the year Tuesday, looking sloppy, bored at times, and the decision-making did not seem sound.
The good news: That was still good enough to win an ACC road game against a ranked team.
The Cavaliers escaped Raleigh with a 66-65 overtime victory over the Wolfpack behind 15 points from De'Andre Hunter, 12 from Ty Jerome, 10 from Kyle Guy, and really important contributions from Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key, Jay Huff (eight points each for those three), and Jack Salt (five for him).
Virginia took a 15-8 lead at the under 12-minute mark and then didn't look the same after that. It's as if the players thought they were going to beat every ACC team not named Duke by 20-plus points -- not gonna happen. If any team should be humble, it is this one. The 'Hoos know how quickly it can be
taken away, how quickly a 31-win season can be mostly forgotten. Indeed, the first half reminded me a bit of the low-scoring UMBC first half, with neither team really seizing control, but mostly, the favorite showing vulnerability.
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| It was not easy for Kihei Clark, Kyle Guy and the Cavaliers to shake Braxton Beverly and the Wolfpack. |
The second half started to remind me of something different. Not that fateful day last March, but rather, the 2016-17 season. UVa built a 14-point lead on the Wolfpack, but gave it all away, even after still being up seven with 4:37 left. And two years ago, I think Virginia had three or four double-digit leads that it gave away. The difference is UVa lost those games to -- off the top of my head -- Villanova, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse -- but ended up pulling this one out.
And that's to be commended. Virginia did make some good plays when it needed to. After falling behind by three quickly in overtime, Key found Huff for an alley-oop plus a foul, and boom, the game was tied again. Tied at 61, Guy made his only 3 of the game with two minutes left in the extra session. And Hunter sunk both of his crucial free throws in the closing seconds, which ended up mattering greatly when he fouled Markell Johnson on a 3-pointer on the other end with a second left. Luckily, Johnson missed the first free throw, and State never got a shot to tie or win.
N.C. State is a solid team that made things tough for Virginia, but the Wahoos did not look like themselves. The body language didn't look good, and the players looked tired or disinterested at times. They committed 16 turnovers, double their season average. On defense, there was too much reaching in, and the rotations didn't seem to be moving as fast as they should've been. And possibly twice, once in the first half and certainly up 14 in the second half, it looked like the players might have thought the game was won. But they scraped by, showing grittiness in the end, so hopefully lessons were learned in the win. As long as that happens, that's always better than a loss.
Also, it's obvious that when a game is decided by one point, everything matters. When UVa is crushing teams by 20-25, certain baskets or defensive stands are forgotten. But not in a one-point contest. Every single positive play was crucial, such as in the first half when Huff was out of position and rushed back toward the basket and jumped up in time to deflect away an alley-oop. Or the crazy up-and-under type shot Salt made under the basket late in the second half. It all mattered. In blowouts, a Salt basket doesn't look like much. But Tuesday, it gets remembered, as does Huff's hustle. That should've definitely helped cement his role off the bench.
The ragged-looking Cavaliers return to Charlottesville to take on Miami today before getting a week off and hosting Duke next Saturday. A week off looks like it could really help this team about now, but first up are the Hurricanes. I'm sure the players will be ready for the rematch with the Blue Devils, but can they get by Miami while possibly running on fumes? Here's a look at the 'Canes so far in 2018-19:
Scorers in double figures: Sophomore guard Chris Lykes (16.8), senior guard Zach Johnson (13.5), senior guard Anthony Lawrence II (12.2), senior guard Dejan Vasiljevic (11.5), senior center Ebuka Izundu (11.1)
Leading rebounders: Izundu (8.8), Lawrence (5.6), Vasiljevic (4.3), sophomore forward Sam Waardenburg (3.6)
Assist leaders: Lykes (3.5), Lawrence (2.7), Johnson (2.3)
Notable: Miami has seven players averaging double-figure minutes, so it isn't very deep. Junior forward Dewan Hernandez did not play any games this season and was ruled ineligible by the NCAA after it was determined that he entered into an agreement with an agent in the offseason and accepted benefits. Hernandez has decided to enter the NBA draft and not come back next year. He was a significant contributor for the Hurricanes in 2017-18, averaging 11.4 points and 6.7 rebounds. Waarendburg averages 5.4 points. Johnson, Lawrence, and Lykes each average about 1.5 steals.
Izundu records 1.5 blocks per game and Lawrence about one.
Best win: Fresno State, 78-76, in November at the Wooden Legacy Tournament in California. The Bulldogs are now 15-5.
Worst win: Houston Baptist at home, 80-73. The Huskies are 6-13.
Other wins: Lehigh, Stephen F. Austin, Bethune-Cookman, La Salle, Campbell, Florida Atlantic, Wake Forest
Best loss: at No. 13 Florida State, 68-62
Worst loss: Every team Miami has lost to has a winning record, but even though Penn is 12-6 and the game was played on the road, losing 89-75 to an Ivy League team isn't advisable for an ACC team.
Other losses: Seton Hall, Rutgers, Yale, N.C. State, Louisville, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Syracuse, FSU (second game)
What Miami does well: The Hurricanes shoot pretty well from the line at 72.1 percent (113th). They record 6.4 steals per game (tied, 177th). Miami takes good care of the ball with only 12.2 turnovers per game (tied, 80th) and owns a +1.07 assist-turnover ratio (137th).
What Miami doesn't do well: Most everything else has been a struggle for the 'Canes. Scoring and shooting: They are averaging 74.7 ppg (145th) and shooting 45 percent from the field (169th) and 35.2 percent from beyond the arc (133rd). Despite the solid-ish assist-turnover ratio, they are averaging just 13.3 assists (205th). Defensively, the numbers are a bit bleaker. Miami is giving up 71.4 ppg (175th) and allowing opponents to shoot 45.2 percent from the field (270th) and 33.8 percent on 3s (173rd). On the glass, Miami is getting owned, posting a -2.4 rebounding margin per contest (tied, 280th).
The goal for today should be similar to how Virginia handled Wake Forest. Get up big early, sort of coast just a bit, and hopefully rest the starters as the game goes on. The question is will this be a return to form, or should fans expect a struggle, even against a team that hasn't looked good such as Miami?
Virginia has held every ACC opponent other than Duke to fewer than 60 points in regulation, and that should be another goal against Miami. Vasiljevic is the Hurricanes' best 3-point shooter at 40.9 percent, the only one over 40 percent. Lawrence (36.6), Johnson (32.9), and Lykes (32.7) are all solid. Miami is not deep, and even if UVa doesn't blow it out early, as the game progresses, the depth of both teams' benches should matter. It's worth noting that Miami does have quite a few close losses: FSU by six, N.C. State by five, Louisville by seven, North Carolina by nine, Yale by four, Rutgers by three, and Seton Hall by two. Had they won three of those, let's say, then we are looking at a 12-8 team. Sure, the 'Canes also have won some close games, but not as many as they have lost.
The line for the game as of 10:30 a.m. Saturday is Virginia by 19. I'd love to see the guys go into the break happy and with a lot of momentum after a 77-55-type win. I could also see a 61-57-type game that is way closer than it should be. I'll split the difference and say either Virginia pulls away in the second half, or builds a lead to about 20, then Miami makes the score look better in the end.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15 points.
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