No. 3 Virginia (23-2, 11-2) at No. 18 Louisville (18-9, 9-5), Noon ACC Network
The Cavaliers went into Cassell Coliseum on Monday and came out with a 64-58 win, the first season sweep of the series for Virginia since the 2014-15 season.
The game followed a similar pattern to the Miami and Notre Dame games, with UVa mostly controlling the action throughout, with the exception of the first 10 minutes of the game and the first few minutes of the second half. But with the game tied at 34, Ty Jerome knocked down a 3 with 17 minutes left, and the game was never tied again, with UVa twice building double-digit leads that Tech cut down to five and then seven.
The Cavaliers were led by 23 points from Kyle Guy, who made 6 of 13 3s, Jerome with 16 (3 of 6 on 3s) to go along with six assists, and 10 points and four rebounds from De'Andre Hunter, who was in early foul trouble and only played 26 minutes. Jack Salt got in big-time foul trouble and only played 14 minutes, making one free throw. Mamadi Diakite came off the bench but was third in minutes behind Jerome and Guy with 31, and the junior big man recorded eight points, six boards, and a pair of blocks. Kihei Clark started and played the entire first half, but was ineffective, especially on offense, going 0 for 2 on a pair of open 3s and getting a layup blocked. The true freshman had two
boards and two assists, but also a really bad turnover at the end of the first half that allowed the Hokies to cut the lead to 32-29, cementing Clark's spot on the bench to start the second half. He only played two minutes the rest of the way.
Hunter picked up his second foul of the game with 12:22 left in the first half and the Hokies up 13-10. It was a bad call with the Tech player definitely jumping in front of him to take a "charge," and color commentator Jay Bilas said as much on the ESPN broadcast. The next time down the floor, Tech missed two 3-pointers. That could've been a big moment, with UVa's best all-around player going out of the game about the same time as the Hokies taking a two-possession lead (16-10), but it was not to be. A little over a minute later, Virginia tied the game at 13 and then took a 16-13 edge it ended up holding for the remainder of the half.
That early lead came thanks to Guy, who was on fire. The junior sharpshooter had 17 of his 23 points in the first half, basically saving the 'Hoos from a worse fate when they were off to a bit of a ragged start. In particular, with eight minutes left, he hit back-to-back 3s that took the Cavaliers' lead from four to 10 points. He always had an answer to Hokies runs and ended up shushing the crowd with one last big 3 with 2:09 left that made Virginia's cushion 61-51. Guy's six 3s tied his career high, and he also led the team with seven rebounds. He's scored at least 20 points in three straight games, the first time a Hoo has accomplished that feat since Malcolm Brogdon did it from Feb. 15-27, 2016.
Virginia got lucky in the first half, because Tech was given several clean looks at 3s and missed most of them. The Hokies, who rank fourth in the country in 3-point percentage, finished 3 of 28. Clark was supposed to be in for his defense, but he was guarding the Hokies' Wabissa Bede most of the time and gave him at least two great looks at 3s. Luckily for Clark, Bede missed both. Bede is a 39.1 percent 3-point shooter but didn't make any in two games against the 'Hoos.
There were other miscues scattered throughout the game. At one point in the first half, Jerome had a wide-open 3, and instead of shooting, he tried a no-look pass to Guy and wasn't even close. In the second half with about 10 minutes left, it looked like Jerome had a clean lane to the basket, and he's usually really good with floaters, but he passed it back out of the paint for some reason, and Virginia came up empty on the possession. Jerome must have been a little upset with himself, though, because the next time down is when he made one of his 3s from well beyond the arc. Later, with about four minutes left, Tech had chipped the lead down to nine when Jerome hit one of his floaters in the lane, just like I had wanted him to do with 10 minutes left.
Braxton Key busted out of a 3-point shooting slump by make two late in the game to help cement the victory for the Wahoos. The Alabama transfer is still just shooting 28.3 percent from beyond the arc. He finished with six points, three rebounds, two assists (one of which was a really nice touch pass in
the lane to Diakite, who finished with a dunk), and one really nice block in the first half on a breakaway by Bede. Key is actually leading the team in rebounding with 5.9 boards per game, but is just fifth in minutes. I think more Key would be a good thing. And if he can start making 3s at a better clip, at least at a more than 30 percent clip, the Cavaliers' offense becomes that much more potent.
When Hunter came back after his early foul trouble, he made his presence known, making at least two plays that should have NBA scouts salivating. On one, he grabbed a rebound off a Key miss, went back up and missed, but got his own rebound on the other side of the basket, bulled a couple Hokies out of the way, and went up strong for the finish. A few minutes later, he disrupted a handoff between two Hokies, stole the ball, and cruised in for a breakaway dunk. Grown-up man plays.
It's great that Virginia swept its rival for the first time in four years and picked up a win over a ranked team on the road, but there are plenty of areas the team still needs to clean up. UVa ended up 11 of 27 on 3-pointers, making eight more than the Hokies -- after some quick math, that's 24 points -- yet just won by six. That's a little alarming and indicates that with a few misses, Tech could've won by five or more points (without its best player). Virginia defeated Tech by 22 earlier this season, and that's more of how this one should've gone had the Cavaliers played a really good game. Instead, it was just a solid win, but there's still plenty of room to improve.
Virginia stays on the road today for another tough tilt, this time at Louisville. The Cardinals are in their first year under coach Chris Mack, who moved over from Xavier. Here's a look at the Cards by the numbers:
Scorers in double figures: Sophomore forward Jordan Nwora (17.3), junior forward Dwayne Sutton (10.7), senior guard Christen Cunningham (10.3)
Leading rebounders: Nwora (7.6), Sutton (6.8), sophomore forward Malik Williams (5.5), junior center Steven Enoch (5.1)
Assist leaders: Cunningham (4.9), Sutton (1.9), junior guard Ryan McMahon (1.8)
Notable: Nine players average double-figure minutes. Enoch averages 9.1 points, McMahon and Williams 7.6, and sophomore guard Darius Perry puts up 5.6 per game. Nwora and Sutton average one steal each. Williams averages 1.3 blocks.
Best win: At No. 12 North Carolina, 83-62
Worst win: Vs. Lipscomb, 72-68, but the Bisons, from the Atlantic Sun, are 21-6
Other wins: Nicholls State, Southern, Vermont, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Central Arkansas, Kent State, Robert Morris, Miami, Boston College, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Best loss: Vs. Marquette in New York, 78-74. The Golden Eagles were not ranked at the time, but are now No. 11 and 21-4.
Worst loss: This isn't good for the Cardinals, but they have a couple of candidates. At Pittsburgh, 89-86. The Panthers are 12-15 and 2-12 in the ACC. But no one is going to forget Louisville being up by 23 at home vs. Duke with about nine minutes left and losing, 71-69.
Other losses: Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida State, Syracuse
What Louisville does well: The Cardinals' offense has been hot and cold. They average 77.4 points (66th), shoot 45.2 percent from the field (146th), and make 36.3 percent of their 3s (93rd) and 76.9 percent of their free throws (10th). They get to the line a lot, too, with 576 free throws (59th). Louisville averages 13.9 assists (tied, 138th) and possesses a 1.06 assist-turnover ratio (144th). Defensively, the Cardinals give up 68 ppg (92nd), and allow their foes to shoot 41 percent overall (49th) and 32.2 percent from beyond the arc (78th). They clean the glass pretty well, too, owning a +3.4 rebounding margin (84th).
What Louisville doesn't do well: I imagine the Cardinals are sloppier with the ball than they'd like to be, averaging 13.2 turnovers (171st) and a -.3 turnover margin (206th). They also foul too much, with 475 committed, which ranks around 200th; it looks like NCAA.com hasn't updated its rankings for that stat, because it has 459 fouls (475 comes from Louisville's athletics website). That's especially too many fouls for a team that doesn't have aggressive defensive numbers that stand out in steals, 4.9 per game (314th) or blocks, 3 per game (208th).
Is "23" affecting Louisville like "0.9" did?
Last season at the KFC Yum! Center, Louisville held a nine-point lead over UVa with 3:47 left and a five-point edge with 5.8 seconds left before the improbable happened, and Virginia scored four points in 0.9 seconds to stun the Cardinals, 67-66.
Hunter banked in the game-winning 3-pointer. You can relive the moment here:
It was early March, and Louisville was in the midst of trying to make the NCAA tournament. Needless to say, a win over the nation's No. 1 team would've been huge. But it didn't happen. It began a final stretch for Louisville in which it lost three of its final four games, including in the ACC tournament quarterfinals to UVa by 17. The Cardinals ended up going to the NIT.
Fast forward almost a year later, and they've been bitten by something possibly more improbable that made national headlines. On Feb. 13, Louisville held a 23-point lead at home on Duke, the same team
that has beaten Virginia twice. And that was with Zion Williamson (before he blew out his shoe and sprained his knee). But incredibly, the Blue Devils stormed back over the final nine minutes and won, 71-69. Instead of being a landmark win, it was an embarrassing moment. Louisville is still projected to safely make the Big Dance, but still, it has lost three of four games, with the only victory being a one-point home win over Clemson, which was in the middle of an even unluckier stretch than Louisville. And right before the Duke loss, the Cardinals were up 10 on the road at Florida State and lost in overtime. If there's a team that could use a win over No. 3 Virginia to feel good about itself again, it's Louisville.
Louisville's most recent outing came Wednesday at Syracuse, a 69-49 loss. So that means it is coming off a ugly loss and has two fewer days of rest than Virginia. It will be interesting to see if a new coach can change anything for Louisville in this series. Since it joined the ACC, UVa has owned it, winning eight of nine, with the one Louisville "W" coming by two.
If my memory serves correctly, I think Louisville probably shoots a little better on 3-pointers than it has in recent seasons at 36.3 percent, so that could help its chances. Sutton (38.2 percent), Nwora (37.6), Cunningham (37.1), McMahon (36.2), University of Richmond transfer Khwan Fore (34.4 percent, but just 3.8 ppg), Williams (32.8), and Perry (32.1) are solid shooters that UVa will need to
keep track of. Enoch would be a tough cover beyond the arc at 6-foot-10, and he's at 46.2 percent, but he's attempted just 26 3s.
It's a cop out to say, but this is just another game where anything could happen. The same Louisville team that built a 23-point margin on Duke also gave it all away quickly, looking scared and like no one knew how to play basketball anymore (Virginia fans, of course, have no idea what it looks like for their team to forget how to play hoops -- please don't miss my sarcasm). The Cardinals won at UNC by 21 but lost at Pitt by giving up 89 points -- in back-to-back games! It's all about what team shows up. We know Virginia is the same. The 'Hoos have a chance to blow out the Cards, and they could also lose. The line as of late Friday night on ESPN.com is Virginia by five points, and that sounds about right. I'll take UVa to grit out another tough road win.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
The Cavaliers went into Cassell Coliseum on Monday and came out with a 64-58 win, the first season sweep of the series for Virginia since the 2014-15 season.
The game followed a similar pattern to the Miami and Notre Dame games, with UVa mostly controlling the action throughout, with the exception of the first 10 minutes of the game and the first few minutes of the second half. But with the game tied at 34, Ty Jerome knocked down a 3 with 17 minutes left, and the game was never tied again, with UVa twice building double-digit leads that Tech cut down to five and then seven.
The Cavaliers were led by 23 points from Kyle Guy, who made 6 of 13 3s, Jerome with 16 (3 of 6 on 3s) to go along with six assists, and 10 points and four rebounds from De'Andre Hunter, who was in early foul trouble and only played 26 minutes. Jack Salt got in big-time foul trouble and only played 14 minutes, making one free throw. Mamadi Diakite came off the bench but was third in minutes behind Jerome and Guy with 31, and the junior big man recorded eight points, six boards, and a pair of blocks. Kihei Clark started and played the entire first half, but was ineffective, especially on offense, going 0 for 2 on a pair of open 3s and getting a layup blocked. The true freshman had two
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| Kyle Guy made 6 of his 13 3-point attempts in Blacksburg. |
Hunter picked up his second foul of the game with 12:22 left in the first half and the Hokies up 13-10. It was a bad call with the Tech player definitely jumping in front of him to take a "charge," and color commentator Jay Bilas said as much on the ESPN broadcast. The next time down the floor, Tech missed two 3-pointers. That could've been a big moment, with UVa's best all-around player going out of the game about the same time as the Hokies taking a two-possession lead (16-10), but it was not to be. A little over a minute later, Virginia tied the game at 13 and then took a 16-13 edge it ended up holding for the remainder of the half.
That early lead came thanks to Guy, who was on fire. The junior sharpshooter had 17 of his 23 points in the first half, basically saving the 'Hoos from a worse fate when they were off to a bit of a ragged start. In particular, with eight minutes left, he hit back-to-back 3s that took the Cavaliers' lead from four to 10 points. He always had an answer to Hokies runs and ended up shushing the crowd with one last big 3 with 2:09 left that made Virginia's cushion 61-51. Guy's six 3s tied his career high, and he also led the team with seven rebounds. He's scored at least 20 points in three straight games, the first time a Hoo has accomplished that feat since Malcolm Brogdon did it from Feb. 15-27, 2016.
Virginia got lucky in the first half, because Tech was given several clean looks at 3s and missed most of them. The Hokies, who rank fourth in the country in 3-point percentage, finished 3 of 28. Clark was supposed to be in for his defense, but he was guarding the Hokies' Wabissa Bede most of the time and gave him at least two great looks at 3s. Luckily for Clark, Bede missed both. Bede is a 39.1 percent 3-point shooter but didn't make any in two games against the 'Hoos.
There were other miscues scattered throughout the game. At one point in the first half, Jerome had a wide-open 3, and instead of shooting, he tried a no-look pass to Guy and wasn't even close. In the second half with about 10 minutes left, it looked like Jerome had a clean lane to the basket, and he's usually really good with floaters, but he passed it back out of the paint for some reason, and Virginia came up empty on the possession. Jerome must have been a little upset with himself, though, because the next time down is when he made one of his 3s from well beyond the arc. Later, with about four minutes left, Tech had chipped the lead down to nine when Jerome hit one of his floaters in the lane, just like I had wanted him to do with 10 minutes left.
Braxton Key busted out of a 3-point shooting slump by make two late in the game to help cement the victory for the Wahoos. The Alabama transfer is still just shooting 28.3 percent from beyond the arc. He finished with six points, three rebounds, two assists (one of which was a really nice touch pass in
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| Braxton Key came into the Virginia Tech game having made 1 of his past 13 3s, but he hit a pair against the Hokies, snuffing out any chance of a rally. |
When Hunter came back after his early foul trouble, he made his presence known, making at least two plays that should have NBA scouts salivating. On one, he grabbed a rebound off a Key miss, went back up and missed, but got his own rebound on the other side of the basket, bulled a couple Hokies out of the way, and went up strong for the finish. A few minutes later, he disrupted a handoff between two Hokies, stole the ball, and cruised in for a breakaway dunk. Grown-up man plays.
It's great that Virginia swept its rival for the first time in four years and picked up a win over a ranked team on the road, but there are plenty of areas the team still needs to clean up. UVa ended up 11 of 27 on 3-pointers, making eight more than the Hokies -- after some quick math, that's 24 points -- yet just won by six. That's a little alarming and indicates that with a few misses, Tech could've won by five or more points (without its best player). Virginia defeated Tech by 22 earlier this season, and that's more of how this one should've gone had the Cavaliers played a really good game. Instead, it was just a solid win, but there's still plenty of room to improve.
Virginia stays on the road today for another tough tilt, this time at Louisville. The Cardinals are in their first year under coach Chris Mack, who moved over from Xavier. Here's a look at the Cards by the numbers:
Scorers in double figures: Sophomore forward Jordan Nwora (17.3), junior forward Dwayne Sutton (10.7), senior guard Christen Cunningham (10.3)
Leading rebounders: Nwora (7.6), Sutton (6.8), sophomore forward Malik Williams (5.5), junior center Steven Enoch (5.1)
Assist leaders: Cunningham (4.9), Sutton (1.9), junior guard Ryan McMahon (1.8)
Notable: Nine players average double-figure minutes. Enoch averages 9.1 points, McMahon and Williams 7.6, and sophomore guard Darius Perry puts up 5.6 per game. Nwora and Sutton average one steal each. Williams averages 1.3 blocks.
Best win: At No. 12 North Carolina, 83-62
Worst win: Vs. Lipscomb, 72-68, but the Bisons, from the Atlantic Sun, are 21-6
Other wins: Nicholls State, Southern, Vermont, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Central Arkansas, Kent State, Robert Morris, Miami, Boston College, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Best loss: Vs. Marquette in New York, 78-74. The Golden Eagles were not ranked at the time, but are now No. 11 and 21-4.
Worst loss: This isn't good for the Cardinals, but they have a couple of candidates. At Pittsburgh, 89-86. The Panthers are 12-15 and 2-12 in the ACC. But no one is going to forget Louisville being up by 23 at home vs. Duke with about nine minutes left and losing, 71-69.
Other losses: Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida State, Syracuse
What Louisville does well: The Cardinals' offense has been hot and cold. They average 77.4 points (66th), shoot 45.2 percent from the field (146th), and make 36.3 percent of their 3s (93rd) and 76.9 percent of their free throws (10th). They get to the line a lot, too, with 576 free throws (59th). Louisville averages 13.9 assists (tied, 138th) and possesses a 1.06 assist-turnover ratio (144th). Defensively, the Cardinals give up 68 ppg (92nd), and allow their foes to shoot 41 percent overall (49th) and 32.2 percent from beyond the arc (78th). They clean the glass pretty well, too, owning a +3.4 rebounding margin (84th).
What Louisville doesn't do well: I imagine the Cardinals are sloppier with the ball than they'd like to be, averaging 13.2 turnovers (171st) and a -.3 turnover margin (206th). They also foul too much, with 475 committed, which ranks around 200th; it looks like NCAA.com hasn't updated its rankings for that stat, because it has 459 fouls (475 comes from Louisville's athletics website). That's especially too many fouls for a team that doesn't have aggressive defensive numbers that stand out in steals, 4.9 per game (314th) or blocks, 3 per game (208th).
Is "23" affecting Louisville like "0.9" did?
Last season at the KFC Yum! Center, Louisville held a nine-point lead over UVa with 3:47 left and a five-point edge with 5.8 seconds left before the improbable happened, and Virginia scored four points in 0.9 seconds to stun the Cardinals, 67-66.
Hunter banked in the game-winning 3-pointer. You can relive the moment here:
It was early March, and Louisville was in the midst of trying to make the NCAA tournament. Needless to say, a win over the nation's No. 1 team would've been huge. But it didn't happen. It began a final stretch for Louisville in which it lost three of its final four games, including in the ACC tournament quarterfinals to UVa by 17. The Cardinals ended up going to the NIT.
Fast forward almost a year later, and they've been bitten by something possibly more improbable that made national headlines. On Feb. 13, Louisville held a 23-point lead at home on Duke, the same team
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| De'Andre Hunter banked in the winning 3 at Louisville last season ... |
Louisville's most recent outing came Wednesday at Syracuse, a 69-49 loss. So that means it is coming off a ugly loss and has two fewer days of rest than Virginia. It will be interesting to see if a new coach can change anything for Louisville in this series. Since it joined the ACC, UVa has owned it, winning eight of nine, with the one Louisville "W" coming by two.
If my memory serves correctly, I think Louisville probably shoots a little better on 3-pointers than it has in recent seasons at 36.3 percent, so that could help its chances. Sutton (38.2 percent), Nwora (37.6), Cunningham (37.1), McMahon (36.2), University of Richmond transfer Khwan Fore (34.4 percent, but just 3.8 ppg), Williams (32.8), and Perry (32.1) are solid shooters that UVa will need to
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| ... and then got mobbed his teammates. |
It's a cop out to say, but this is just another game where anything could happen. The same Louisville team that built a 23-point margin on Duke also gave it all away quickly, looking scared and like no one knew how to play basketball anymore (Virginia fans, of course, have no idea what it looks like for their team to forget how to play hoops -- please don't miss my sarcasm). The Cardinals won at UNC by 21 but lost at Pitt by giving up 89 points -- in back-to-back games! It's all about what team shows up. We know Virginia is the same. The 'Hoos have a chance to blow out the Cards, and they could also lose. The line as of late Friday night on ESPN.com is Virginia by five points, and that sounds about right. I'll take UVa to grit out another tough road win.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Just reading your blog in preparation for your coming on to Hoos Place. Welcome! We look forward to your insights.
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Thanks for taking a look and I'm happy to be on board at Hoos Place!
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