After early scare, UVa downs G-W, now gets Oklahoma team that has been shaky all season but was great vs. Ole Miss

No. 1 Virginia (30-3) vs. No. 9 Oklahoma (20-13),
Columbia, S.C., about 7:45 p.m., truTV


It took a while, and UVa fans were feeling that dread all over again, but Virginia woke up and rallied from 14 down in the first half to cruise to a 71-56 victory over Gardner-Webb on Friday in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Once the Cavaliers got over the pressure of the moment, and the potential history opposing fans wanted them to make again, they showed they were the more talented team with better coaching and edges all over the court. It was all about attitude to me, and once the Wahoos realized who they are and what they can really do, the game was over.

To read more of my thoughts on the win, check out my analysis at HoosPlace.com. In the second round Sunday, Virginia gets to battle with Oklahoma and veteran coach Lon Kruger. Here's
After shaking the cobwebs out of their heads, Kyle Guy,
De'Andre Hunter, and Ty Jerome took care of business Friday,
outscoring Gardner-Webb 41-20 in the second half.
a look at the Sooners this season:

Record: 20-13, 7-11 Big 12, tied for seventh
Coach: Kruger; 33rd year, 638-408, eighth year at Oklahoma, 159-104
Scorers in double figures: Senior 6-foot-4 guard Christian James (14.6), sophomore 6-9 forward Brady Manek (12.2), junior 6-7 forward Kristian Doolittle (11.4)
Leading rebounders: Doolittle (7.2), James (6.2), Manek (5.9), senior 6-10 center Jamuni McNeace (3.7)
Assist leaders: Freshman 6-4 guard Jamal Bieniemy (3.5), senior 5-11 guard Aaron Calixte (2.1), James (1.8)
Notable: Eight players are averaging double-figure minutes. Senior 6-6 guard Rashard Odomes is averaging 7.1 points, senior 6-2 guard Miles Reynolds is at 6.8 ppg, as is Calixte. Bieniemy (1.4), James (1.2), and Doolittle (0.9) all about a steal per game. McNeace (0.9) and Manek (0.7) are capable shot-blockers.
Win streak: one; beat No. 8-seeded Ole Miss, 95-72, in first round
Best win: No. 13 Kansas at home, 81-68, on March 6
Worst win: 85-80 over Notre Dame in New York early in the season; we of course know the Fighting Irish did not end up being very good
Other wins: Texas Rio Grande Valley, Texas-San Antonio, Wofford, Florida, Dayton, North Texas,
Wichita State, USC, Creighton, Northwestern, Oklahoma State (twice), TCU (twice), Texas, Vanderbilt, West Virginia 
Best loss: At No. 5 Kansas, 70-63
Worst loss: Home against Baylor, 77-47
Other losses: Wisconsin, Texas, Texas Tech (twice), Kansas State (twice), Iowa State (twice), West Virginia (twice), Baylor (road)
Common opponents with UVa: Wisconsin (20-point loss; Virginia seven-point win), Dayton (11-point win; Virginia seven point win), Notre Dame (five-point win; Virginia 27- and six-point wins)
(Note: The below numbers are not updated with the Ole Miss win)
What Oklahoma does well: The Sooners are giving up 68.2 ppg (90th) and shooting percentages of 40.2 overall (25th) and 33.3 on 3s (124th). Oklahoma does a pretty good job of limiting turnovers at just 12.2 per game (96th) and owns a 1.04 assist-turnover ratio (166th). The Sooners are decent at cleaning the glass with a +.5 rebounding margin per game (175th).
What Oklahoma doesn't do well: Offense has been a struggle at times, though it is worth noting the 95 points the Sooners scored against the Rebels in the first round of the Big Dance. But that is an exception to the rule for Oklahoma, which is averaging 71.2 ppg (tied, 216th) while shooting 44.5 percent overall (167th), 34.2 percent from beyond the arc (188th), and 69.1 percent at the line (232nd). They haven't been great at getting to the line, either, with 586 attempts (223rd). They don't score a ton by passing the ball with just 12.7 assists per game (236th). Defensively, they don't rank highly in steals, 5.9 per game (213th), or blocks, 3.1 per game (201st).

I think if the Cavaliers are relaxed now that the burden of the 1-16 matchup has been thrown off their shoulders, they should be able to win this game, and possibly going away. Oklahoma seems like the kind of team Virginia can thrive against. The Sooners don't shoot the ball that well, don't get to the line a ton, and don't seem to play an aggressive defense. They aren't particularly strong on the glass, with their second-best rebounder being just 6-4, and 6-10 center McNeace is a skinny 222 pounds.

No Sooner shoots better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. But the shooters to watch are Bieniemy (40 percent on 65 attempts), Manek (36 on 150 attempts), junior 6-10 forward Matt Freeman (35.3 on 68 attempts), James (34.6 on 191 attempts), and Calixte (34.3 on 99 attempts). Odomes is at 37.5 percent but has only had 16 shots from deep and is more of a slasher. Manek and Freeman could be
Christian James is Oklahoma's leading scorer
at 14.6 ppg and a ferocious rebounder,
even though he is just 6-4.
problems with their height if they get hot. I imagine we'd put De'Andre Hunter, Braxton Key, or possibly Mamadi Diakite on those guys. They'd need to be bothered with length.

Though these numbers don't stand out, I'm sure Tony Bennett watched the Ole Miss beatdown and took a lot of notes. He's probably telling the players, "This is what we are getting ready for." It was definitely Oklahoma's best offensive effort of the season, and UVa should prepare for the best. So in that way, the fact that Oklahoma looked so good is probably a blessing. But in several other games against better defenses than Mississippi's, Oklahoma has struggled (Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Kansas State).

Against the Rebels, Odomes (20 points), James (20), Doolittle (19), and Manek (18) all scored in double figures. Oklahoma shot 6 of 13 from beyond the arc (it doesn't take many 3s in general) with James hitting 4 of 7 and Manek 2 of 3. The Sooners shot 57.6 percent from the field and 21 of 26 at the charity stripe. Leading rebounder Doolittle had 15 boards and five assists, plus two steals. Manek had three steals, and Bieiemy recorded five assists. Ole Miss forced just four turnovers.

Bottom line, I feel good about this game. I really think the guys have loosened up now and can just play their game. And in most cases, if these teams played a regular-season series, Virginia would probably take about 6-7 of 10 games. The defense needs to lock down in the paint, where Oklahoma wants to do damage, and make sure they clean up misses so as not to give clean looks on 3s, even though Oklahoma won't take many, that's where they might want to, is off scrambles and missed shots. Oklahoma has had a solid defense this season using a man-to-man, but I think once Virginia dissects what it is doing, it can attack it by spreading the floor and just using great ball movement, which is what UVa did in the second half against Gardner-Webb.

Past NCAA tournament results notwithstanding, Virginia is the better team this season and again, just needs to go show it on the floor like it eventually got around to doing against Gardner-Webb. Even with NBA draft lottery pick Trae Young last season, the Sooners went just 18-14, losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament to Rhode Island. I respect Kruger a ton for having taken five teams to the Big Dance (Kansas State, Florida, Illinois, UNLV in addition to OU), and Oklahoma has some good experience on the court, but if the Cavaliers perform how they are capable of performing, they have the ability to put the game away early. If Virginia could get out to a quick start, which it hasn't seemed to do in a while, I'd feel even better. But UVa has several advantages in this game, and needs to exploit them and just come out aggressive. Once again, it is the better team, and now just go show it. 

Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.

Comments

  1. As an outsider, I would say UVa would win 8 or 9 times if they played 10. For this game, I am predicting a Virginia win by at least 10 points. You're exactly right: The Cavs are loose now and ready to play their game.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I kinda wanted to say 10-15. Just chickened out haha. Thanks for the comment!

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