Pittsburgh (12-16, 2-11) at Virginia (25-2, 13-2), 2 p.m. ACC Network
The Cavaliers crushed Georgia Tech 81-51 on Wednesday, the first time they have looked that dominant in a while. I'm sure it was a welcome relief for the players to beat somebody down again after having to slog through such a difficult portion of the ACC schedule. Though UVa has looked rough at times, only the Notre Dame home game would've been categorized as a truly bad loss. But Virginia pulled through the difficult contests with only the two Duke losses and was rewarded with an easy victory over the Yellow Jackets. To read more of my recap-analysis of the game, head on over to HoosPlace.com.
Now, Virginia hosts another ACC bottom feeder in Pittsburgh as it begins the stretch run of the regular season. Hard to believe, but it will be over in a week, and then the ACC and NCAA tournaments are right around the corner. Welcome to March! After this likely respite, UVa closes at Syracuse on Monday and then home vs. Louisville next weekend.
Here's the statistical breakdown of the Panthers:
Scorers in double figures: Freshman guard Xavier Johnson (16.5), senior guard Jared Wilson-Frame (11.9), freshman guard Trey McGowens (11.8)
Leading rebounders: Freshman guard Au'Diese Toney (5.8), Wilson-Frame (4.8), sophomore forward Terrell Brown (4.6), Johnson (3.8), junior guard Malik Ellison (3.7)
Assist leaders: Johnson (4.5), senior guard Sidy Ndir (1.9), McGowens (1.8)
Notable: Eight players average double-figure minutes. Toney (7.9), Ellison (6.3), Brown (6), and Ndir (5.8) are solid scorers. McGowens averages two steals, and Johnson and Ndir one. Brown blocks two shots per game.
Best win: Home against No. 11 Florida State, 75-62, way back on Jan. 14. The Panthers haven't won
since.
Worst win: North Alabama at home Nov. 17. The Lions are 10-21.
Other wins: Youngstown State, VMI, Troy, Central Arkansas, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Maryland Eastern Shore, New Orleans, Colgate, Louisville
Best loss: At Iowa, 69-68. The Hawkeyes are 21-7 now and ranked No. 22.
Worst loss: Niagara at home, 71-70. The Purple Hawks, from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, are 13-17.
Other losses: West Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Syracuse (twice), Duke, Clemson (twice), Wake Forest, N.C. State (twice), Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
What Pittsburgh does well: As you've already guessed based on the Panthers' record, not much. But there are a few things. Offensively, they get to the line a lot. They've shot 687 free throws or 24.5 per game, which is the most in the ACC and in the top 25 nationally. Luckily for UVa, Pittsburgh only makes 70.2 percent (184th), and the Cavaliers are tied for first with Princeton for fewest fouls. So, fans might end up complaining a little, but I doubt Pittsburgh reaches 20 free throws. Defensively, Pitt has some decent numbers, giving up 68.6 ppg (105th) and shooting percentages of 40.7 percent overall (39th) and 33 percent on 3s (106th). Pittsburgh also boasts a turnover margin of +1.8 (tied, 78th), forcing teams into 15.5 turnovers per game (tied, 38th) while averaging seven steals (tied, 91st, with Virginia Tech).
What Pittsburgh doesn't do well: Like Georgia Tech, offense has been a mighty struggle. The Panthers are averaging 71.4 ppg (218th) while shooting just 42.5 percent from the field (271st) and 32.4 percent from beyond the arc (287th). Though the turnover margin is healthy, the Panthers haven't been that secure with the ball, recording 13.7 turnovers per game (242nd) and just 12 assists (285th) per game for an assist-turnover ratio of just .87 (297th). Pittsburgh has also been inconsistent on the glass at best with a -.1 rebounding margin (207th). And the Panthers get to the line a lot, yes, they've also allowed teams to shoot there a lot, 524 times, by having committed 516 fouls (worse than 200th).
Plain and simple, Pittsburgh is another bad team Virginia does not want to be fooling around with this time of year. Pitt is a step above where it was last season, when it went 8-24 and 0-18 in the ACC under Kevin Stallings, but Jeff Capel isn't exactly aiming for ACC coach of the year in his first season in the Steel City. The calendar has turned to March, and it is time for teams to begin playing their best basketball. Part of that for the Cavaliers is blowing out teams they should blow out.
Georgia Tech's interesting win came at Syracuse, but Pittsburgh does have two of those, over Florida State and Louisville, but both were at home, and Pittsburgh is now on an 11-game losing skid. The Panthers are 0-7 on the road in the ACC and in fact, have not won away from home all season. And last time out Wednesday at home, they only scored 48 points in a 62-48 loss to Clemson in which the Tigers led 38-16 at the half.
The 3-point shooters UVa should keep tabs on are Johnson (39.4 percent), Wilson-Frame (38.3), sophomore guard Khameron Davis (31.6, but only 38 attempts on the year, and he's averaging 13 minutes and 2.5 points), McGowen (30.1), and Brown (30).
Like Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh likely needs to hope Virginia has a really bad offensive game to have a chance, since it is unlikely the Panthers are going to catch fire as 3-point shooters. Since the game is in Charlottesville, it's hard to see the foul situation getting so out of hand that it keeps Pitt in the game. Florida State, a much better team than Pitt (despite the loss to the Panthers), shot 27 free throws against the 'Hoos at JPJ but was well on its way to a 25- to 30-point loss until the final few minutes when the Seminoles made the final score a more respectable 65-52. So even if Pitt can get to 20-plus free throw attempts, it means nothing. It also needs to make them -- FSU converted just 16.
If UVa has an off game, and Pitt can come up with a few steals and catches the Cavaliers in a sloppy game, then maybe it can make it interesting. But coming off such a good performance, I don't see Virginia coming out slow, and the Panthers are coming off a bad outing where they weren't competitive. Like the Georgia Tech game, the line rests at 19 points in favor of Virginia. A sharp UVa squad can definitely cover, but if it comes out with a subpar performance, or the green team gets extended time at the end, the final margin could be a little less than that.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 20-25 points.
The Cavaliers crushed Georgia Tech 81-51 on Wednesday, the first time they have looked that dominant in a while. I'm sure it was a welcome relief for the players to beat somebody down again after having to slog through such a difficult portion of the ACC schedule. Though UVa has looked rough at times, only the Notre Dame home game would've been categorized as a truly bad loss. But Virginia pulled through the difficult contests with only the two Duke losses and was rewarded with an easy victory over the Yellow Jackets. To read more of my recap-analysis of the game, head on over to HoosPlace.com.
Now, Virginia hosts another ACC bottom feeder in Pittsburgh as it begins the stretch run of the regular season. Hard to believe, but it will be over in a week, and then the ACC and NCAA tournaments are right around the corner. Welcome to March! After this likely respite, UVa closes at Syracuse on Monday and then home vs. Louisville next weekend.
Here's the statistical breakdown of the Panthers:
Scorers in double figures: Freshman guard Xavier Johnson (16.5), senior guard Jared Wilson-Frame (11.9), freshman guard Trey McGowens (11.8)
Leading rebounders: Freshman guard Au'Diese Toney (5.8), Wilson-Frame (4.8), sophomore forward Terrell Brown (4.6), Johnson (3.8), junior guard Malik Ellison (3.7)
Assist leaders: Johnson (4.5), senior guard Sidy Ndir (1.9), McGowens (1.8)
Notable: Eight players average double-figure minutes. Toney (7.9), Ellison (6.3), Brown (6), and Ndir (5.8) are solid scorers. McGowens averages two steals, and Johnson and Ndir one. Brown blocks two shots per game.
Best win: Home against No. 11 Florida State, 75-62, way back on Jan. 14. The Panthers haven't won
Worst win: North Alabama at home Nov. 17. The Lions are 10-21.
Other wins: Youngstown State, VMI, Troy, Central Arkansas, Saint Louis, Duquesne, Maryland Eastern Shore, New Orleans, Colgate, Louisville
Best loss: At Iowa, 69-68. The Hawkeyes are 21-7 now and ranked No. 22.
Worst loss: Niagara at home, 71-70. The Purple Hawks, from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, are 13-17.
Other losses: West Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Syracuse (twice), Duke, Clemson (twice), Wake Forest, N.C. State (twice), Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
What Pittsburgh does well: As you've already guessed based on the Panthers' record, not much. But there are a few things. Offensively, they get to the line a lot. They've shot 687 free throws or 24.5 per game, which is the most in the ACC and in the top 25 nationally. Luckily for UVa, Pittsburgh only makes 70.2 percent (184th), and the Cavaliers are tied for first with Princeton for fewest fouls. So, fans might end up complaining a little, but I doubt Pittsburgh reaches 20 free throws. Defensively, Pitt has some decent numbers, giving up 68.6 ppg (105th) and shooting percentages of 40.7 percent overall (39th) and 33 percent on 3s (106th). Pittsburgh also boasts a turnover margin of +1.8 (tied, 78th), forcing teams into 15.5 turnovers per game (tied, 38th) while averaging seven steals (tied, 91st, with Virginia Tech).
What Pittsburgh doesn't do well: Like Georgia Tech, offense has been a mighty struggle. The Panthers are averaging 71.4 ppg (218th) while shooting just 42.5 percent from the field (271st) and 32.4 percent from beyond the arc (287th). Though the turnover margin is healthy, the Panthers haven't been that secure with the ball, recording 13.7 turnovers per game (242nd) and just 12 assists (285th) per game for an assist-turnover ratio of just .87 (297th). Pittsburgh has also been inconsistent on the glass at best with a -.1 rebounding margin (207th). And the Panthers get to the line a lot, yes, they've also allowed teams to shoot there a lot, 524 times, by having committed 516 fouls (worse than 200th).
Plain and simple, Pittsburgh is another bad team Virginia does not want to be fooling around with this time of year. Pitt is a step above where it was last season, when it went 8-24 and 0-18 in the ACC under Kevin Stallings, but Jeff Capel isn't exactly aiming for ACC coach of the year in his first season in the Steel City. The calendar has turned to March, and it is time for teams to begin playing their best basketball. Part of that for the Cavaliers is blowing out teams they should blow out.
Georgia Tech's interesting win came at Syracuse, but Pittsburgh does have two of those, over Florida State and Louisville, but both were at home, and Pittsburgh is now on an 11-game losing skid. The Panthers are 0-7 on the road in the ACC and in fact, have not won away from home all season. And last time out Wednesday at home, they only scored 48 points in a 62-48 loss to Clemson in which the Tigers led 38-16 at the half.
The 3-point shooters UVa should keep tabs on are Johnson (39.4 percent), Wilson-Frame (38.3), sophomore guard Khameron Davis (31.6, but only 38 attempts on the year, and he's averaging 13 minutes and 2.5 points), McGowen (30.1), and Brown (30).
Like Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh likely needs to hope Virginia has a really bad offensive game to have a chance, since it is unlikely the Panthers are going to catch fire as 3-point shooters. Since the game is in Charlottesville, it's hard to see the foul situation getting so out of hand that it keeps Pitt in the game. Florida State, a much better team than Pitt (despite the loss to the Panthers), shot 27 free throws against the 'Hoos at JPJ but was well on its way to a 25- to 30-point loss until the final few minutes when the Seminoles made the final score a more respectable 65-52. So even if Pitt can get to 20-plus free throw attempts, it means nothing. It also needs to make them -- FSU converted just 16.
If UVa has an off game, and Pitt can come up with a few steals and catches the Cavaliers in a sloppy game, then maybe it can make it interesting. But coming off such a good performance, I don't see Virginia coming out slow, and the Panthers are coming off a bad outing where they weren't competitive. Like the Georgia Tech game, the line rests at 19 points in favor of Virginia. A sharp UVa squad can definitely cover, but if it comes out with a subpar performance, or the green team gets extended time at the end, the final margin could be a little less than that.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 20-25 points.
Wrecked 'em like the Hoos wrecked Ga. Tech. Nicely done!
ReplyDelete