No. 2 Virginia (28-2, 16-2) vs. N.C. State (22-10, 9-9) in Charlotte, 12:30 p.m. ESPN/ACC Network
The Cavaliers came away with a hard-fought 73-68 victory on Jack Salt (senior) day, as I've been calling it, on Saturday. Even though Salt didn't score, the Wahoos sent him out the right way with a win as the team captured its fourth ACC regular-season title in six years. It was an all-around great team effort. Ty Jerome led all scorers with 24 points, but everyone contributed, and it was definitely one of those games where you see all the weapons UVa possesses this season. When a couple of players are a little bit off, that doesn't doom the offense like it has in years past. To read more of my thoughts on the win, check out my story on HoosPlace.com.
Today at 12:30, Virginia officially begins its postseason in the ACC tournament quarterfinals against N.C. State. The Wolfpack, the bracket's No. 8 seed, defeated No. 9 seed Clemson on Wednesday, 59-58, coming back from a 42-26 halftime deficit to stun the Tigers, possibly knocking them out of the
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| Fittingly, Jack Salt was the final player to take a piece of the net Saturday. And it looks like he got a handful. |
One of the things I'd like to do before the tournaments begin is to take a look at UVa's profile and numbers as I do for other teams. I did not do that yet, not even during Virginia's "bye week" in February between facing Miami and Duke at home, which was my original intent. So here it is now:
Record: 28-2, 16-2 (my prediction was 26-4, 14-4, for those keeping track at home, so kept up my tradition of underselling the 'Hoos -- and I thought I was being fairly bold)
Scorers in double figures: Junior Kyle Guy (15.3), redshirt sophomore De'Andre Hunter (15.2), junior Ty Jerome (13.5)
Leading rebounders: Junior Braxton Key (5.5), Hunter (5.2), Guy (4.5), Jerome (4.1), redshirt junior Mamadi Diakite (4), redshirt senior Jack Salt (3.9)
Assist leaders: Jerome (5.3), freshman Kihei Clark (2.3), Hunter (2.2), Guy (2.1)
Notable: Eight players are averaging double-figure minutes. Supporting The Big Three in scoring are Diakite (7.1 ppg), Key (6.3), Huff (5.1), and Clark (4.1). Salt is at 3.6 ppg but has not scored in five games and has not played more than 20 minutes since the Feb. 9 home loss to Duke. Jerome averages 1.4 steals, and Key one. Diakite blocks 1.6 shots per game and Huff is at 0.9 while Key is at 0.6.
Best win: At No. 8 North Carolina, 69-61, on Feb. 11. It was a big bounceback win for the 'Hoos after falling to Duke in a highly anticipated home game just two days earlier. Following closely are the home wins against top-10 foes Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers crushed the Seminoles and Hokies, cementing their spot in the top five nationally and as an ACC contender once again.
Worst win: Right after that UNC victory, Virginia was back at home against Notre Dame, which finished the regular season 14-18 and 3-15. The Cavaliers were only able to scrape by 60-54, and the lead was down to two with under a minute left.
Other wins: Towson, George Washington, Morgan State, Coppin State, Middle Tennessee, VCU, Dayton, Wisconsin, Maryland, South Carolina, William & Mary, Marshall, Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech (road), Wake Forest, Notre Dame (road), N.C. State, Miami, Louisville (twice), Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech
Losses: Neither loss to Duke was particularly bad, though the home loss was by 10. But both were a bit odd. The Blue Devils, who had Zion Williamson for both matchups, needed statistical anomalies to win. In the first game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, Virginia made just 3 of 17 3-pointers but still scored 70 points and shot over 50 percent, only to lose 72-70. In the contest at JPJ, Duke made 13 of 21 3-pointers despite being a 30 percent 3-point shooting team on the season.
What Virginia does well: The Wahoos are solid in several categories, as expected. Everyone knows about the defense, so let's start with the offense. In terms of just raw numbers, UVa is averaging 72.1 ppg, which is still just 189th in the country, but all good Virginia fans know that number is misleading because of the pace at which the team plays. In terms of points per possession, Virginia ranks fourth in the nation behind Gonzaga, Hofstra, and Wofford. In Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, which are adjusted for strength of schedule, Virginia's adjusted offense ranks second behind Gonzaga's. The Cavaliers are shooting 47.9 percent from the field (28th), 41.4 percent on 3-pointers (third), and 74.6 percent at the line (38th). The other main thing UVa's offense is known for is turnovers, or the lack of them that is. Despite some shakiness a few games ago, the Cavaliers record just 9.1 turnovers per game (second), just behind Michigan's 9. Virginia also shares the ball well, averaging 14.6 assists (87th), a very good number for a team with its slow pace. As a result, the Cavaliers sport a 1.61 assist-turnover ratio (fifth).
Then of course there is the defense. Virginia ranks first in the country in points allowed per game at 54.6 ppg, a whole four ppg better than second-place Texas Tech. The 'Hoos allow foes to shoot 37.4 percent from the field (tied, second) and 27.3 percent on 3s (first). They block four shots per game (99th). UVa is solid on the glass, averaging +5.6 rebounds per game more than their opponents (24th). Much to the chagrin of opponents (and possibly fan bases even more), Virginia plays this great defense while not fouling, having committed just 433 (third).
What Virginia doesn't do well: Though Virginia has a solid free throw percentage, it has come down some in recent weeks. The average is 74.6 percent, but the team was below that mark in 12 out of 18 games in ACC play, which helps you visualize the drop that has occurred since the nonconference portion of the schedule. And because of the offense Virginia runs and the pace at which it plays, like as has been normal over the years, it doesn't get to the line often, having taken just 485 free throws (tied, 318th, with Liberty no less, which has former UVa assistant Ritchie McKay as head coach, and he runs Bennett's system).
The Cavaliers have an awesome defense, but no one is going to mistake them for having an "explosive" defense, if that makes sense. As such, Virginia forces just 11 turnovers per game (327th) and records 5.6 steals per game (261st).
And what about N.C. State? What have the Wolfpack done since falling to Virginia 66-65 in overtime Jan. 29? Other than Duke, N.C. State was the ACC team that played UVa the toughest, coming closest to handing the Cavaliers a third conference loss, but since then, the Wolfpack have gone just 6-5, which I guess isn't too bad considering the way the team started 0-2 after the home loss to the 'Hoos: a 47-24 loss to Virginia Tech at home (nope, not a typo) followed by a 113-96 defeat at North Carolina -- talk
I referenced how Virginia went through a shaky stretch of games regarding turnovers, and the N.C. State game was what started it -- the Cavaliers coughed it up 16 times in that contest. UVa also had a 14-point lead with 12:17 left, meaning the game looked like it was going to turn out as many others did this year until it took a turn for the worst. State chipped away at the lead until it caught UVa at 53-53 with 1:32 left, and the game went to OT tied at 55. The Wolfpack made a 3 to begin the extra session, but Virginia followed right up with an alley-oop dunk plus a foul on a pass from Key to Huff. Then Guy broke a 61-61 tie on a 3 with 2:03 left, and the Cavaliers held on from there.
Hunter led the 'Hoos with 15 points, and Jerome had 12 while Guy added 10. Diakite had eight points, five boards, and four blocks, and Huff and Key had eight points apiece. For N.C. State, Markell Johnson led the team with 14, Torin Dorn had 13, Wyatt Walker 11, and Devon Daniels 10.
In N.C. State's come-from-behind win Wednesday, Johnson was the team's only double-digit scorer with 23 points (4 of 9 on 3-pointers), and DJ Funderburk and Dorn had eight each. N.C. State went 6 of 21 from beyond the arc and shot just 41.1 percent from the field.
Clemson seems like it might be on its way out of the Big Dance, but the feeling is better surrounding N.C. State. The team certainly cannot be hurt that much if it loses to Virginia, which is projected to be the NCAA tournament's No. 1 overall seed for the second consecutive season. As of now, N.C. State is listed as one of the last four teams in the field, according to ESPN.com's Bracketology.
Virginia did not play particularly well in the teams' late January meeting, but the Cavaliers still held a double-digit lead at one point. After what was possibly an exhausting comeback vs. Clemson on Wednesday, and maybe with the thought in the back of the players' heads that they are safely in the tournament, I expect the Wolfpack to fall to the Cavaliers in a game that could be close at times, but will be won by multiple possessions.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
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