After slipping past Oregon, Virginia set to battle Purdue for Final Four berth

No. 1 Virginia (32-3) vs. No. 3 Purdue (26-9),
Louisville, Ky., 8:49 p.m., TBS

Virginia didn't make it easy, but found a way to grind out a 53-49 win over Oregon on Thursday to reach the Elite Eight for the second time in four seasons. Kihei Clark was an unlikely hero on offense, and Ty Jerome hit the go-ahead 3 with 3:33 left. De'Andre Hunter found it hard to find room to operate on offense, and Kyle Guy continued his shooting struggles, making just 2 of his 11 3-pointers.

It took another "A" effort on defense to win, because the offense was average to below average against a very tricky Oregon matchup zone. To read more of my thoughts on the victory over the Ducks, head over to the article at Hoos Place.

It looks like it is going to take a better outing on offense for the Wahoos to advance to their first Final

Kihei Clark was excellent against Oregon,
knocking down three 3s, including a game-tying
one with about five minutes left. He also forced Oregon
PG Payton Pritchard into a poor shooting night.

Four since 1984. Purdue has struggled at times this season, but the offense has been clicking the past two games. Here's more on the Boilermakers:

Record: 26-9, 16-4 Big Ten, tied for first
Coach: Matt Painter, 15th year, 346-163; 14th at Purdue, 321-158
Scorers in double figures: Junior 6-foot-1 guard Carsen Edwards (23.8), senior 6-6 guard Ryan Cline (12.1)
Leading rebounders: Sophomore 6-6 guard Nojel Eastern (5.6), sophomore 7-3 center Matt Haarms (5.5), senior 6-6 forward Grady Eifert (5.2), freshman 6-9 forward Trevion Williams (3.9), Edwards (3.7)
Assist leaders: Cline (3.4), Edwards (3), Eastern (2.5)
Notable: Though the Boilermakers have just two players in double-figure scoring, they have five others averaging at least five points: Haarms (9.5), Eastern (7.5), Eifert (5.6), Williams (5.2), and junior 6-8 guard Evan Boudreaux (5.2). They have 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes. Edwards tallies 1.4 steals per game, Eastern 1.1, and Eifert 0.9. Haarms averages two blocks. Eifert is the brother of NFL tight end Tyler Eifert.
Win streak: Three; defeated No. 14-seeded Old Dominion, 61-48 in the first round, crushed No. 6-seeded Villanova, 87-61, in the second round, and then took down No. 2-seeded Tennessee, 99-94, in overtime in the Sweet 16
Best win: The Tennessee win has to be first, and then a home win over No. 6 Michigan State, 73-63,

on Jan. 27, has got to be second.
Worst win: In the second game of the season, Purdue struggled against Ball State, winning at home, 84-75. The Boilermakers held a 42-41 lead at the break. The Cardinals finished 16-17, 6-12 in the MAC.
Other wins: Fairfield, Appalachian State, Davidson, Robert Morris, Maryland (home), Ohio, Belmont, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State (twice), Rutgers, Indiana (twice), Penn State (twice), Minnesota (home), Nebraska (twice), Illinois, Northwestern
Best loss: At No. 15 Florida State, 73-72, in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Worst loss: 88-80 to Notre Dame in Indianapolis. We know all about the Fighting Irish's struggles this year, and they finished with a record of 14-19 and tied for last in the ACC.
Other losses: Virginia Tech, Michigan, Texas, Michigan State, Maryland (road), Minnesota (twice, one road, one neutral)
Common opponents with UVa: Virginia Tech (six-point loss; Virginia 22- and six-point victories), Florida State (one-point loss; Virginia 13-point win and 10-point loss), Maryland (two-point victory and 14-point defeat; Virginia five-point win), Notre Dame (eight-point loss; Virginia 27- and six-point victories)
Note: Some of the below numbers are taken from Purdue's athletics site when possible. Those are updated through the three NCAA tournament games. Normally, I take stats from NCAA.com. The problem I've ran into is NCAA.com's stats are not updated through all tourney games. What I will do is slot Purdue's rankings for these stats based on the newest numbers. Keep in mind, though, this does not take into account other teams, so they could be a little off in NCAA.com's list. I'll show you what I mean with points per game.
What Purdue does well: The Boilermakers put up 76.7 ppg. On NCAA.com, they are at 75.7 ppg, and that's because their 99-point outing against Tennessee isn't taken into account. On NCAA.com, this mark ranks them 93rd. If we take the 76.7 figure, that places them 73rd, without figuring out where all the teams around them would change if we also took their newest numbers. Purdue shoots

Carsen Edwards scores a lot of points but takes a lot of shots.
Virginia needs to make him work hard for whatever his
final tally ends up being Saturday.

37.1 percent on 3-pointers (tied, 49th). The Boilermakers do a good job of moving the ball and taking care of it. They record 14.5 assists per game (tied, 83rd) and commit just 10.7 turnovers per contest (23rd) for a turnover-assist ratio of 1.4 (16th). Purdue is very solid on the glass, owning a +5.5 margin on the boards per game (26th). Defensively, Purdue gives up 66.9 ppg (tied, 56th) and a 41.6 field goal percentage (63rd).
What Purdue doesn't do well: Some of these numbers are still pretty good, something to keep in mind. Shooting from the field overall can be a struggle, with Purdue sitting at 45 percent (tied, 139th), and the mark at the line isn't great, 71.9 percent (tied, 133rd). Purdue has been inconsistent guarding the 3-point line, allowing foes to shoot 34.3 percent beyond the arc (tied, 184th). The Boilermakers don't play an aggressive defense, recording 6.3 steals per game (160th) and forcing opponents into just 12.7 turnovers per game (about 200th). They tally 3.9 blocks per outing (100th). Fouls are calculated as totals on NCAA.com, with no per game category, so this number does not take into account the Tennessee game. So excluding that game, the Boilermakers had committed 585 fouls (192nd). Nor are they aggressive and able to get to the line a lot, with just 582 free throw attempts (232nd).

Purdue has won just three games in a row, the minimum for a team that has gotten this far in the tournament, but it has arguably played better each game, first defeating Old Dominion in a low-scoring game, 61-48, then crushing defending champion Villanova, 87-61, and finally not succumbing to Tennessee's fantastic rally and prevailing, 99-94 in overtime. Purdue ended the regular season and Big Ten tournament portion of the schedule by losing two of three: 73-69 Minnesota loss, 70-57 Northwestern win, and then another defeat at the hands of the Golden Gophers in the Big Ten

Needless to say, Ryan Cline was
in the zone vs. Tennessee.

quarterfinals, 75-73.

The Boilermakers have an elite scorer in Edwards that has posted at least 25 points in four straight NCAA tournament games dating to last season. He's drawing comparisons to Steph Curry. In this year's event, he's averaging 32.3 points and shooting 42.9 percent on 3-pointers (18 of 42) after being just below 35 percent on the season on 361 tries. He's 6-1, and I imagine Virginia plans to have Clark follow him all over the court. He isn't the most efficient scorer, shooting about 38 percent from the field. If UVa can get close to cutting his output in half from his tournament average, it will be that much closer to moving on to the Final Four.

Another guy to account for is Cline, a former AAU teammate of Guy. He was simply unconscious against Tennessee, knocking down 7 of his 10 attempts from 3-point range on his way to 27 points. For the season, he's at 41.8 percent on 261 attempts. Purdue takes 3s at one of the highest rates in the country. Other than Edwards and Cline, 3-point percentages for other players are as follows: Eifert (44.3 percent on 79 attempts), 6-4 freshman guard Sasha Stefanovic (41 percent on 61 attempts, and he scores just 2.6 ppg and plays 11.8 minutes), and 6-9 freshman forward Aaron Wheeler (37 percent on 81 attempts).

Haarms and Eastern each had 11 points to round out the double-digit scoring in Purdue's win over the Vols. Purdue shot 54 percent from the floor, 48.4 percent from beyond the arc (15 of 31), but just 48.5 percent from the charity stripe (16 of 33). Tennessee was no better at the line, shooting 50 percent, and oddly, the Vols were also at 50 percent from the field and on 3-pointers.

Purdue uses a man-to-man defense that hasn't been putting as much pressure on ballhandlers recently, according to the preview at Hoos Place. It shouldn't be as hard for UVa to decipher this scheme as it was Oregon's. But, it is still a good, solid defense, ranking 28th in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive rankings. Like Oregon and UVa, Purdue prefers a slower pace, ranking 262nd in adjusted tempo.

Hopefully, Hunter can get it going in this game. He was locked up a lot against Oregon, but he should have more room to operate against Purdue. And overall, I just think Virginia is going to need to shoot better from distance to advance than it has (about 29 percent for the tournament). It's not that I don't think it can't beat Purdue, as UVa has clearly demonstrated it has been the superior team this season, but the Boilermakers are arguably playing better, and certainly on the offensive end. At a minimum, I think Virginia will have to score 65 points, but it might take 70. Purdue isn't scoring 99 again, of course. Oklahoma scored 95, and then 51 vs. UVa. But I think it is a lot to ask to get Purdue under 60

Like Tony Bennett, Purdue coach Matt Painter
is one of the sport's best coaches to have
never reached a Final Four.

with how it has played the past two games on offense. Hey, if the Cavaliers prove me wrong and can win a first-to-60-game or lower, they can be my guest. It's just that I've seen the script before of UVa bowing out a tad earlier than it should in the Big Dance when hovering around the 60-point mark.

Painter, like Bennett, has been a very solid coach for over a decade now but has been unable to reach a Final Four. In fact, this is his first Elite Eight after getting to the Sweet 16 and losing each of the past two seasons. When Bennett's dad, Dick, got Wisconsin to the to the 2000 Final Four, the only one of his career, he beat Purdue, then coached by Gene Keady, to do it. Painter was associate head coach for Keady during his last season, 2004-05.

Virginia needs to either slow Edwards way down and hope Cline doesn't go off again, or let Edwards score but make sure everyone else is accounted for and having bad games. Edwards can score 30 if everyone else is taken care of. On offense, I expect Virginia to look better, but how much? It's getting to the point in the tournament where I think all three of the Big Three need to have average to above average games, with one or two solid performances from role players thrown in, or have good games from two of the stars with solid games from at least two role players. It's tough to imagine UVa getting zero bench points like Thursday and winning. But maybe Guy can actually get hot? It seems like it has been too long for him to be cold, and he's bound to snap out of it soon. I'll take UVa to play its usual brand of good defense, and get just enough offense to move on to Minneapolis.

Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.