Virginia is the better team, but needs to go show it

No. 1 Virginia (29-3) vs. No. 16 Gardner-Webb (23-11)
Columbia, S.C., about 3:10 p.m., truTV

On Sunday, I gave a first by-the-numbers look at Gardner-Webb. Over at HoosPlace.com, there is lots of information to get you ready for the game as well by colleagues, including a podcast I participated in. Most of the discussion is on looking forward for Virginia, but we also take a look back at the Florida State loss and explore the rest of the NCAA tournament bracket.

If you follow my blog, you know I didn't quite get to all the numbers I normally do for a preview, so I'll do that now before wrapping up with some other thoughts.

What Gardner-Webb does well: The Runnin' Bulldogs boast some solid offensive numbers. They score 78.3 points per game (50th) and shoot 48.8 percent from the field (13th) and 39.1 percent on 3-pointers (12th). They also move the ball pretty well with 14.5 assists per game (90th) and just 11.5 turnovers per game (tied, 51st) for an assist-turnover ratio of 1.26 (58th). G-W has also done a good job of getting to the line, coming up with 737 free throw attempts (43rd). It doesn't put opponents there a lot, having committed just 545 fouls (104th). Defensively, it nabs 6.9 steals per game (101st) and gives up a 41.2 shooting percentage overall (50th) and 32.7  beyond the arc (82nd).

What Gardner-Webb doesn't do well: G-W gets to the line often, but isn't the sharpest at converting once there, making 71.1 percent of its free throws (163rd). The Bulldogs give up 70.5 points per game (tied, 156th) and aren't going to block many shots (2.9 per game, 227th) given their

Senior 6-foot-6 senior DJ Laster scored 32 points in the Bulldogs'
Big South final win over Radford. Virginia needs to do what it can
to limit the damage inflicted by him.

small height, with no regular rotation player taller than 6-foot-6. Not surprisingly, they struggle on the boards, owning a -.7 rebound margin per game (224th). Their defense is not predicated on pressure, as they force teams into just 13.32 turnovers per game (160th). According to the Hoos Place preview, G-W plays a sagging man-to-man, not unlike the Pack Line, and will occasionally use some 2-3 zone.

So what should we make of Gardner-Webb? It seems like the selection committee has once again saddled Virginia with the toughest 16-seed, just like last season. With that said, despite some solid all-around numbers from the Bulldogs, they play in a much weaker conference, the Big South, and still have offensive efficiency numbers that aren't as good as Virginia's.

Virginia is ranked the top team in Ken Pomeroy's rating system. G-W is 165th. Virginia's adjusted offense is ranked second and adjusted defense is fifth. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are at Nos. 109th and 251st, respectively. Gardner-Webb is a good team that needs to be respected, but UVa should realistically cruise.

Of course, telling fans one thing and getting them to believe it is another. Every UVa fan knows that it has been better than G-W over the course of the season. The Cavaliers have three losses, all to top-12 teams. G-W has 11 losses, six in the Big South, and faced just one top-25 team, Virginia Tech, and lost by 28. And No. 1 seeds have of course dominated No. 16 seeds with one notable exception. However, De'Andre Hunter did not play against UMBC, and while we had an idea he was a good player last season, I don't know if we knew how good or important, but that became apparent as NBA scouts drooled over him, and then he turned into the best all-around player on the team this season. So hopefully we see Friday just how much he was missed in that historic defeat last season.

Virginia is capable of winning the championship. We've seen the team's best this year, such as the first halves vs. Virginia Tech and Florida State (at home), and the second half at Louisville, plus in other stretches, such as blowing out bad Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh teams, and getting up on Wake Forest 25-3 early. It's just a matter of how often the team touches its ceiling. Now, I think when one cog isn't turning at peak efficiency, that can hurt a team like Virginia more since it doesn't have the raw talent of some schools, like Duke and Kentucky. The way UVa works, it is more important for each player to perform well. But its best can beat most every other best in the nation. But when one or two players are not playing that well, the system as a whole can be weakened.

Friday is one of those times UVa needs to show how good it can be. If Virginia comes out intimidated or passive, that will play right into the hands of Gardner-Webb. We know the Bulldogs will come out firing with plenty of gusto. Any 16-seed would because of what happened last season. If I'm Tony Bennett, I'm loosening the reins some and letting my horses run. Virginia's defense-first, slow-down game is the way it has gotten to almost the tippy-top of college basketball, yes, but this is the kind of game where Virginia is just plain better. Gardner-Webb is going to hit some shots. But guess what? Virginia's offense is great, too, and scored 80-plus points four times in ACC play and can do that Friday.

If Gardner-Webb breaks 60 points, well, Virginia should, really, still win easily. A slow-down game would help Gardner-Webb. I'm not saying Virginia should run up and down the court. Bennett isn't going to change before the tournament, nor should he. It's unrealistic to even consider it. What I'm saying is, Virginia has advantages all over the court in athleticism and height in this game, and should use them accordingly. Gardner-Webb has a good offense but should not be able to keep up with the

Kihei Clark is going to play an important
role in trying to bother Gardner-Webb's small guards.

Wahoos. If the offense is stagnant early, Bennett should not be wary of bringing in Jay Huff, because he will be a nightmare matchup for the Bulldogs. He's a head taller than anyone, and he can shoot 3s.

Now, with G-W's small size, there could be some concern about the Bulldogs slashing to the hoop with what is essentially a four-guard lineup. Such a sight would give UVa fans post-traumatic stress disorder after what happened last season. That is where Kihei Clark comes into play. One of his specific jobs this whole season has been to pester small quick guards. He will be an important key for the defense. Plus, Hunter is playing and was the ACC defensive player of the year, and Braxton Key is a very good defender who can guard most every position, plus he is a good shot-blocker. And Huff is long enough to bother shots, even if he gets beat going to the rim a few times.

I can promise you the Virginia fan base has probably already thought way too much about this game. I have now written too many words. Hopefully, the players aren't like this. Use last year for motivation, not fear. It is pretty simple: Virginia is better, and it needs to show it. Come out confident, come out aggressive. Take the fight to G-W. The Bulldogs will try to scare the 'Hoos early. Don't fall for it. They need to show why they are considered one of the favorites. Respect G-W, and that shouldn't be a problem because of last season, but then attack and leave no doubt in the final result.

Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 15-20 points.