The anatomy of winning a close game

No. 1 Virginia 85, No. 3 Texas Tech 77 (OT)

It's been a week since the unthinkable happened and the Virginia Cavaliers won the 2019 NCAA men's basketball championship. Ten years ago, spring of my third year at the school, Dave Leitao completed his last season coaching the program, and the team won 10 games. Not 10 ACC games. Ten total games. What an amazing decade it has been.

Has it sunk in for you yet? It is all still pretty surreal to me, but having now bought -- ahem -- four T-shirts, a pennant, multiple issues of The Daily Progress from the final couple of weeks of the run, and having attended the arrival and celebration of the team, it's becoming more and more of a reality.

A reality for most NCAA tournament runs -- and this was no different for the Wahoos -- was winning close games. UVa trailed at some point in all six games, and only won two games by double digits and none by more than 15. Teams that capture titles do so by excelling in the clutch. It takes skill,
Kyle Guy and Co. came up with big shot after big shot
in their NCAA tournament final win over Texas Tech.
luck, and determination. The 'Hoos had all three in spades.

I could really look back at the last four games of the tournament -- the single-digit victories -- and do this, but I'm just going to tackle the final win over Texas Tech for now. Obviously, when a game goes to overtime, every single point matters. But some plays appear more monumental than others given the moment in the game, the unlikelihood of the shot or call, and other factors. I'm going to look at a series of 15 plays (12 in the second half and overtime) from the win over the Red Raiders and analyze how they affected the flow or outcome of the championship in favor of the 'Hoos (and some positive Tech ones). I'll assign a luck rating to each play on a scale of 1-5 to determine how fortunate I feel like the play was for UVa, or if it was all just created by the players. Some Texas Tech plays that stand out will be included, too, for balance's sake. A luck rating in that situation will still mean the same thing -- how lucky Tech was on that particular play.

Time: 12:10 left in first half
Score before play: 9-6 UVa
Star: Kyle Guy
What happened: Guy hit a really nice stepback jumper over Davide Moretti. In real time, it looked like a 2-pointer, and from the angle fans saw on TV, there was no reason to believe Guy was behind the 3-point arc. But after the under-12 timeout commercial was over, we found out the referees had checked the shot, something they can do once the next dead ball occurs for any play that has happened since the most recent timeout, and determined it was, in fact, clearly a 3-pointer. In the moment, it was very cool, but didn't necessarily seem significant. And then looking back, it ended up
Virginia won its final four games by an average of
4.5 points to claim its first championship.
being crucial.
Score after play: 12-6 UVa; could've easily been 11-6 with no replay and who knows, maybe UVa loses 68-67.
Luck: 1; Guy's shot was fantastic and all on him, and the refs just happened to do their due diligence during the timeout.

Time: 7:04 left in first half
Score before play: 19-19
Star: Guy
What happened: Guy drove toward the basket against Moretti and Kyler Edwards with the shot clock ticking down under five seconds. It really looks like Guy travels, though it is hard to tell. But the refs call nothing, and Guy stays patient and makes a basket with three seconds left on the clock.
Score after play: 21-19 UVa
Luck: 4; This really looked like a travel, because Guy made it look awkward, and refs tend to call those types of plays travels even if they technically aren't. I think Virginia was fortunate to get a basket in this situation.

Time: 5 seconds left in first half
Score before play: 29-29
Stars: De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome
What happened: Virginia had recently been dreadful on plays to end first halves but came up huge here. Hunter faked a 3-pointer, drove the baseline, then found an open Jerome at the top of the arc, and the junior from New York confidently drilled the 3. Some people will say the possession at the end of the half is the same as any other possession because it is one possession, just like all others. But after getting down 25-21 at one point, it was a big lift for the 'Hoos to go into halftime with the lead. Yes, statistically speaking it is one possession, but I think there's a psychological/momentum component bundled up in hitting a big shot right before the teams head into the break.
Score after the play: 32-29 UVa
Luck: 0; This was just a really nice play by the Cavaliers.

Time: 14 minutes left in regulation
Score before play: 42-35 UVa
Stars: Tech's Edwards
What happened: Edwards created some space for himself and hit a 3-pointer over Jerome. It was a good-looking shot, but it hit the rim, bounced high in the air, and still went in. It was a precarious period in the game for the Raiders, and kept them close.
Score after the play: 42-38 UVa
Luck: 3.5; It was an under-control shot, good form, and Edwards was almost a 45 percent 3-point shooter on the season. But any time a player gets a fortunate bounce on a long-distance shot, some luck is involved.

Time: 13:25 left in regulation
Score before play: 42-38 UVa
Star: Hunter
What happened: With the shot clock running out, Jerome passed to Hunter at the top of the arc. Hunter had hit a combined 1 of his 8 3s in the Oregon, Purdue, and Auburn games and had yet to make one against the Red Raiders. With the shot clock down to 3, he took one dribble toward Edwards, unleashed the shot, and found the bottom of the net. It was not an easy shot, with time winding down, and because it was not catch-and-shoot, which is often an easier shot. Hunter had to create his own shot, though it was a pretty good setup by Jerome. The most important thing about this basket was that more bombs by Hunter followed, which, of course, ended up being so, so significant. Hunter went 4 of 5 from deep. And this one came right after Edwards' 3, so it was a great answer. Virginia kept answering the bell with big plays all night.
Score after play: 45-38 UVa
Luck: 0; Hunter was the Cavaliers' best 3-point shooter all season, he just needed to get hot at the right time. And he did.

Time: 10:25 left in regulation
Score before play: 50-43 UVa
Stars: Jerome and Guy
What happened: If it weren't for the Dia-Kihei play, "The Play" in the Purdue game, this would probably be the pass of the tournament for Virginia. Jerome drove toward the paint, then fired an absolute laser-beam pass across the court and through traffic to Guy, who waited on the baseline all alone. He drilled the 3 to give UVa a double-digit lead.
Score after play: 53-43 UVa
Luck: 0; Jerome and Guy are awesome players.

Time: 8:20 left in regulation
Score before play: 53-47 UVa
Stars: Jerome
What happened: Again, a quickly expiring shot clock. Clark passed down low to Jerome, who had posted up Tech's Matt Mooney. Jerome backed him down for a second, then hit a very tough turnaround, fadeaway jumper. It was a big play because it was a difficult shot that he could've easily
If this photo doesn't get you a little misty,
I don't know what will.
missed, and after UVa had gone up 10, Tech had knocked down back-to-back baskets to cut the margin to six. So Jerome's basket stemmed the tide a bit. The last time Jerome posted up, it came against Auburn with UVa up nine, he missed, then fouled a player out of frustration for his fourth foul, and the Tigers began rallying. So this play turned out differently.
Score after play: 55-47 UVa
Luck: 0; Jerome is a great player, but the shot was very difficult. No luck, but degree of difficulty was probably a 5.

Time: 5:52 left in regulation
Score before play: 57-51 UVa
Stars: Hunter (and sort of Guy)
What happened: Moretti and Jarrett Culver were guarding Guy beyond the 3-point arc, and it looked like they were almost able to tie up the ball for a jump ball, and the possession arrow would've pointed Tech's way. But the refs did not call it. Instead, Guy escaped trouble and launched a 3-pointer from the top of the arc that he missed, and then Hunter grabbed the rebound and made a putback plus the foul. He missed the free throw, but Hunter let out a roar after making the shot. It was an emotionally uplifting play for Virginia, which was trying to maintain a comfortable margin at that point.
Score after play: 59-51 UVa
Luck: 4; It was a fantastic play by Hunter, but Guy was lucky to not have a jump ball called, perhaps as lucky as he was when he wasn't called for a travel in the first half.

Time: 3:30 left in regulation
Score before play: 59-56 UVa
Stars: Tech's Culver and Norense Odiase
What happened: With Kihei Clark guarding him, Culver drove into the paint, probably got away with a charge, then dropped off the ball to Odiase, who got fouled by Mamadi Diakite as he was making the shot. Odiase completed the 3-point play to tie the game.
Score after play: 59-59
Luck: 3; Charges can often go either way, but that really *looked* like one, because Clark is small, and Culver is 6-8. There was definitely contact. But after that, good play by Culver and a bad foul by Diakite. A play such as this one highlights how important the one that came before it was. If the refs had called a jump ball with Guy, Hunter would not have scored, and this play could've given the lead to the Raiders instead of merely tying the score.

Time: 50 seconds left in regulation
Score before play: 65-64 UVa
Stars: There were a lot of players involved in this positive sequence for Texas Tech. But it ended with a Culver basket to take the lead.
What happened: Red Raiders bench player Brandone Francis, who led them with 17 points, took a 3 and missed. Hunter tipped the rebound, and Guy went up to grab it alongside Culver and Mooney. Mooney's arm made contact with Guy's head. Culver and Guy went to the ground grappling for the ball, where a jump ball was called. Texas Tech possession. On the next play, Culver took Hunter off the dribble and made a nice move to score and put the Raiders up by one.
Score after play: 66-65 Tech
Luck: 3; It was a great play to score by Culver, but Tech was somewhat lucky not to have a foul called on Mooney because his arm made contact with Guy during the rebound.

Time: 20 seconds left in regulation
Score before play: 68-65 Tech
Stars: Jerome and Hunter
What happened: Jerome drove the lane and looked to be well-positioned for a layup and drew in two Tech defenders. Jerome then rifled a pass to Hunter, who was wide open on the baseline. Hunter took his time and sank the tying 3. I can't get over the call of color commentator Bill Raftery yelling, "Onions!" like a little girl after the play. What a huge moment. The Dia-Kihei play was more improbable, but this one was just as crucial in UVa's hunt for the title. Without it, Tech likely goes up four or five on one or a pair of free throws.
Score after play: 68-68
Luck: 0; Just a good play by UVa. Tech did a poor job of staying home on Hunter and guarding against the 3. A 2-pointer would've just cut the lead to one at that point. There was no need to go hard after Jerome at the basket.

Time: 3 seconds left in regulation
Score before play: 68-68
Star: Braxton Key
What happened: There is a lot to process in this sequence, and when this happened, I was really afraid that UVa's luck had maybe run out, and this was how the journey was going to end. Culver took a 3 and missed. Hunter grabbed the board, then tossed the ball toward Guy, who, at the same time, was asking the nearest ref for a timeout so UVa could set up a game-winning play. The ball
Braxton Key blocked Jarrett Culver's
game-winning attempt at the end
of regulation without fouling. Key, who played
29 minutes, also finished with 10 boards.
trickled out of bounds, and Tech got it back. It was determined UVa did not have possession as Guy asked for a timeout. No matter. After a timeout, Culver caught a pass in the corner, but Key was right there to block the shot, which would've won the game for the Raiders had it gone in. It was a great job by Key to be close enough for the block and not foul, as Auburn did Guy at the end of the Final Four contest. It was also not the best shot for Tech to take there. Culver went 0 for 6 from downtown. But as the ball went out of bounds, I was thinking, "This is going to end with a game-winning shot by Tech after we just threw the ball and a chance at the win away, isn't it?"
Score after play: 68-68 headed to overtime
Luck: 0; It was bad luck for UVa to give the ball back after the rebound, but Key's block was a thing of beauty.

Time: 2:10 left in overtime
Score before play: 73-72 Tech
Stars: Key, Guy, and Hunter
What happened: The game-winning shot. Guy faked like he was going on the move and instead set up a screen for Hunter, who set up beyond the arc. Guy was able to slow down Moretti and Odiase, who were there to defend. Key delivered a sharp pass to Hunter, who drained the shot under some pressure.
Score after the play: 75-73 UVa
Luck: 2; Guy's feet are a little wide on his screen, one of the indicators of a moving screen. I don't
De'Andre Hunter shoots what ends up
being the game-winning 3-pointer over
Norense Odiase (left) and Brandone Francis. 
think I would've been shocked had a ref whistled him for a foul. But he was sneaky about it, and I doubt that call is as common there as it is at the top of the arc when the screen is set by a big man.

Time: 1:55 left in overtime
Score before play: 75-73 UVa
Star: Diakite
What happened: Culver drove the lane for a tying shot, and Diakite would have none of it, skying for one of his patented blocks. Diakite really stepped up his blocking game in the tournament, averaging 2.7 in the six Big Dance games (and that's with none vs. Gardner-Webb).
Score after play: 75-73 UVa
Luck: 0; Diakite is getting really skilled at blocking shots, especially in a help situation like that one.

Time: 1:06 left in overtime
Score before play: 75-73 UVa
Stars: Hunter and Jerome
What happened: The final two games in Virginia's victorious title run were not without controversy. On this play, Hunter reached to knock the ball out of Moretti's hand. He did, and it sailed out of bounds. It looked like, at first blush, the Red Raiders were going to keep the ball and have a chance to tie or go ahead. But on replay, it became apparent that the ball grazed Moretti's pinkie finger before it
With UVa up two, De'Andre Hunter knocked the ball
out of Davide Moretti's hand, but it touched
Moretti's pinkie before it went out of bounds.
went out of bounds and after it had finished making contact with Hunter. Virginia ball. Twenty-five seconds went off the clock before Jerome was fouled. He stepped up and made both free throws.
Score after play: 77-73 UVa
Luck: 2; The call was correct, however I do understand those who say that in the spirit of basketball, the ball went off Hunter. But with instant replay, all the evidence must be studied, and the camera angles determined the ball did indeed touch Moretti. Credit is due to Jerome for having ice water in his veins and making both free throws. Virginia went 12 for 12 from the line in the extra session and 20 of 23 overall.

Every play is important when a game goes to overtime, but I pinpointed these 12 as being especially critical to UVa's win in the championship game (and three plays by Tech thrown in for good measure that hurt Virginia). The Cavaliers were both lucky and good -- but mostly good in my estimation -- in capturing the crown. Plays still needed to be made in the clutch, and they absolutely did that.

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