The previews for the Atlantic Division are done, and now I'm moving to the Coastal, Virginia's division. In review, I have the pecking order of the Atlantic looking something like this:
Clemson: 11-1 or 12-0
Syracuse: 7-5 or 8-4
N.C. State: 7-5 or 8-4
Florida State: 6-6 or 7-5
Wake Forest: 6-6 or 7-5
Boston College: 5-7 or 6-6
Louisville: 4-8 or 5-7
Clemson is of course the runaway favorite, with everyone else expected to fight for second. The Coastal is much different. Virginia was picked to win the division for the first time since the conference went to divisions in 2005, but the vote was far from unanimous, with UVa receiving 82 first-place votes, Miami 55, and Virginia Tech 20. In fact, every team in the Coastal got at least one vote to win the division. The standings definitely have a chance to resemble what happened in 2018 when Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Duke all finished with six to eight wins overall. Pitt claimed the division with a 6-2 ACC record. Georgia Tech was 5-3, and Miami, UVa, and VT were 4-4.
First up is a look at the division's defending champ and then the team in Blacksburg. After that, I'll take a look at Miami and Georgia Tech, both of whom have games before Saturday, Aug. 31: Miami vs. Florida in Orlando on Aug. 24 (that's less than a week away!) and Georgia Tech at Clemson on Aug. 29. Duke and North Carolina will follow, and finally, I'll wrap up with my preview for Virginia.
Pittsburgh
Last year: 7-7 (5-3 ACC), lost to Clemson, 42-10, in ACC championship; lost to Stanford, 14-13, in the Sun Bowl Best win: vs. Syracuse, 44-37 in overtime Worst loss: at UNC, 38-35 (one of just two victories for the Heels)
Coach: Pat Narduzzi (fifth year, 28-24)
Starters returning: 11 (4 offense, 4 defense, 3 specialists)
Offensive player to watch: QB Kenny Pickett. A junior this season, Pickett was not overly impressive last year, completing 58.1 percent of his passes for 1,969 yards, 12 TDs, and six interceptions, and he was sacked 33 times behind a line that lost four starters. With two 1,000-yard running backs departing in Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall (and a combined 21 scores), the Panthers are looking for more production out of their passing game, and if Pickett can’t improve behind a new-look offensive line and new offensive coordinator, backup QBs Nick Patti and Davis Beville could get their shots.
Defensive player to watch: S Damar Hamlin. Hamlin, a senior, led Pitt with 90 tackles in 2018 and
added four breakups and two INTs.
Special teams player to watch: KR Maurice Ffrench. French returned kicks an average of 27.4
yards last season (seventh in the NCAA) and scored twice.
Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Ohio, at Penn State, vs. UCF, vs. Delaware, at Duke, at Syracuse, vs. Miami, at Georgia Tech, vs. North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, vs. Boston College.
Win-loss prediction: 5-7 or 6-6. UVa's opener against Pitt isn't just big for UVa. It feels big for Pitt, too. And the Panthers probably have less margin for error than the Cavaliers, because they have fewer returning starters, and Virginia does not have UCF and Penn State on its nonconference schedule. Of course, those games do not factor into the ACC race, but they do factor into being bowl eligible, and I don't think that is a given for Pitt. But it is possible Pitt could stumble against UVa and come into its next ACC game at 2-3, but still end up the division champ at 7-5. I could envision a scenario where Pitt at Virginia Tech, not Virginia Tech at Virginia, is the defacto division title game. Pitt could also beat Tech, then have to beat BC or else see the Tech-UVa winner pass it for the crown on the final weekend. Pickett will have to develop and be more effective for the Panthers to remain at the top of the messy Coastal pile. Narduzzi fired offensive coordinator Shawn Watson in the offseason and hired former Massachusetts coach Mark Whipple to lead that unit. Whipple’s resume includes the early development of Ben Roethlisberger when he was quarterbacks coach with the Steelers, and Narduzzi hopes Whipple can get more out of Pickett, who will have intriguing weapons to throw to, including Ffrench, who recorded 35 catches for 515 yards and six TDs in 2018. Ffrench also had 8.6 yards per carry and a pair of TDs, but on just 19 totes. I’m sure Pitt wants to get him more touches. It'll be all hands on deck to replace RBs Ollison and Hall, but watch for A.J. Davis, Todd Sibley Jr., V’Lique Carter (137 yards and two TDs on just nine carries against Duke in 2018), and the top recruit in Pitt’s 2018 class, Mychale Salahuddin. The defense got some bad news recently. The unit's top pass rusher, DE Rashad Weaver, tore his ACL Aug. 8 and is out for the season. Weaver led the unit with 14 tackles for losses and 6.5 sacks. Last season's pass defense was run of the mill and will be tested with an inexperienced front seven, but the secondary does return experience with Hamlin and CBs Jason Pinnock (two INTs) and Dane Jackson (14 breakups).
Virginia Tech
Last year: 6-7 (4-4 ACC), lost to Cincinnati, 35-31, in the Military Bowl Best win: at No. 22 Duke 31-14 Worst loss: at Old Dominion, 49-35
Coach: Justin Fuente (fourth year, 25-15, 51-38 career)
Starters returning: 18 (5 offense, 10 defense, 3 specialists)
Offensive player to watch: QB Ryan Willis. During the ODU loss, Josh Jackson broke his leg. Willis, a transfer from Kansas who is a senior in 2019, took over and guided the Hokies' offense to a decent season, averaging 26.7 points in 10 games. Willis completed 58.5 percent of his passes for 2,716 yards, 24 scores, and nine picks. He's the man in charge this season with Jackson having transferred to Maryland. Willis should get more help from the defense this year but may have to step up his game for Tech to return to the top of the Coastal.
Defensive player to watch: LB Rayshard Ashby. A junior this season, Ashby led the Hokies with 105 tackles, 9.5 for losses, a sack, two breakups, and a pair of forced fumbles.
Special teams player to watch: P Oscar Bradburn. A junior from Australia, Bradburn averaged 42.6 yards per punt and put 23 inside the 20-yard line.
Schedule: at Boston College, vs. Old Dominion, vs. Furman, vs. Duke, at Miami, vs. Rhode Island, vs. North Carolina, at Notre Dame, vs. Wake Forest, at Georgia Tech, vs. Pittsburgh, at Virginia.
Win-loss prediction: 7-5 or 8-4. It's going to be an interesting season at Virginia Tech. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster announced a few weeks ago this will be his final year. That should give a celebratory feel to the 2019 season, but it doesn't hide the fact that the Hokies weren't very good in 2018, and their defense was the worst it has been since Foster became the defensive coordinator in 1995, finishing 85th or worse in scoring, total, and rushing defense. As off as both Florida State and Tech were, the Hokies did do something the Seminoles failed to do: They kept their
bowl streak alive -- by the skin of their teeth -- beating UVa in overtime and then Marshall to reach
the postseason for the 26th consecutive season.
Why were the Hokies not up to their usual standard? Why is Foster retiring? That's where it gets interesting. Injuries started piling up, but this was also a program that experienced plenty of infighting, which was documented by Sports Illustrated in an article this past week. Ever since Fuente took over after Frank Beamer's final season in 2015, fans -- especially of opposing schools -- have wondered if there was tension between Fuente and Foster, a man Fuente didn't hire. To be fair, it would make sense that Foster was maybe loyal to Beamer. The two had been together since they were at Murray State in the 1980s. Fuente and Foster have played nice in front of the media, but last year, there was, at the very least, tension between the offense and defense, and the chemistry as a whole on the team was off.
Over a period of 16 months, 22 players left the program either because of transfer, academics, or other reasons. Only 12 players combined remain from the 2015 and 2016 freshman classes (Beamer's last class and Fuente's first). The transfer situation got so bad that Fuente called a team meeting in January of this year to talk to players and have an airing of grievances, as documented in the SI story. Suggestions were made, and some changes were implemented, from turkey bacon being served in the cafeteria to more morning practices and fewer in the evenings.
The question is, did the mass exodus get rid of the players that did not want to be there, or is there something inherently wrong with the way Fuente operates his program? Has Foster lost a step, as indicated by last season's defensive numbers, or will his unit look closer to what we've come to expect in 2019? Is Foster being forced out behind the scenes, and is the tension between him and Fuente real? The answers to these questions will slowly come to light (and maybe not in some cases), but if the Hokies can put the soap opera behind them, they are good enough to win the division.
Willis probably won't be special, but if he can be a little better, he's good enough to win plenty of games. Only two starting offensive linemen return, but the receiving corps could be great, with WRs Damon Hazelton (51 catches, eight TDs) and Tre Turner (26 receptions, 20.8 yards per catch, four TDs) and TE Dalton Keene (28 catches, three scores) all back. Last year's leading running back, Steven Peoples, is gone, but Deshawn McClease (443 yards, 4.5 ypc, two TDs) decided to come back after thinking about transferring, and Jalen Holston (281 yards, 4.9 ypc, two scores) is promising.
In addition to Ashby, the defense returns LB Dax Hollifield (eight tackles for losses, two sacks), safety Reggie Floyd (9.5 tackles for losses, two INTs), and CB Caleb Farley (two picks). The line will be quite young, but overall, this defense is much more experienced than going into the 2018 campaign. Can it learn from what happened last year?
The schedule isn't overly daunting, aside from a trip to Notre Dame, and the Miami and Virginia road games could of course be crucial to how the division shakes out, but it remains to be seen if those teams will live up to expectations. The opener at Boston College will be important in setting a tone for the season, but Tech does not have to play Clemson, Florida State, or Syracuse. Georgia Tech has given Virginia Tech fits recently, but Paul Johnson retired, so the Yellow Jackets will not run the triple option, which could help the Hokies. Foster's track record is too good for his defense to be as bad as it was last year. Since he took over as defensive coordinator, no school in the country has more interceptions and sacks.
Like FSU, the chance Tech is worse than last season seems unlikely to me, and just as unlikely would be a 10-2 year. But I do think the Hokies will rebound somewhat, do their best to send Foster out with a solid year, and certainly, they can make a run for the title in a division that is up for grabs.
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