ACC Football Team Previews: Coastal Division - Virginia

Thanks for joining me on another trip around the ACC with my football previews. Finally, we get to the apparent Coastal Division front-runner, and it is none other than the team in Charlottesville.

Virginia

Last year: 8-5 (4-4 ACC), beat South Carolina, 28-0, in the Belk Bowl
Best win: bowl game Worst loss: Indiana was just 5-7, but I'm going to go with yet another loss to the Hokies, this one 34-31 in overtime
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (fourth year, 16-22, 115-65 career)
Starters returning: 17 (6 offense, 9 defense, 2 specialists)
Offensive players to watch: QB Bryce Perkins. I've got to start with the senior signal-caller who dazzled fans last season with his ability to pass and run. There were two quarterbacks in college football who threw for at least 2,500 yards and rushed for at least 800 last year: Perkins is one, and the other won the Heisman and was picked first in the NFL draft -- Oklahoma's Kyler Murray. Perkins completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 2,680 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. The Arizona native added 923 yards and nine scores on the ground.

Digging a little deeper, Perkins joined an exclusive list of eight other quarterbacks to record at least 2,500 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, and 900 rushing yards since 2000: Murray, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, J.T. Barrett, Dak Prescott, Johnny Manziel, Cam Newton, and Vince Young. Half of those won the Heisman, and the other four got Heisman votes. Perkins is that good. He's a legitimate dark horse Heisman contender. Will he win it? Probably not. I don't think I trust UVa's play calling enough, and the tempo hasn't been fast enough on offense to put up insane numbers. Also, I still expect Virginia
to be in some battles and not blow enough teams out, and UVa isn't a big enough name for Perkins to garner the attention he would need to win the trophy. Could he finish in the top 10 of voting? Absolutely. Defensive end Chris Long actually finished 10th in 2007, and running back Thomas Jones came in eighth in 1999.

The hype for the 2019 Virginia football team begins with Perkins' ability. He's cool under pressure, smart, can take a hit, surveys the field, is accurate, can throw on the run, is fast, and he's deceptive in the open field. From all indications, he's also a good leader and was named a captain. I do wish he had more zip on his throws. I also wish he would protect his body a bit more. He takes a lot of hits since he is a running QB and was sacked 32 times. I've been beating this drum since Mendenhall and his staff took over, but I think offensive coordinator Robert Anae would be wise at times to just call more running plays to protect Perkins from himself, since he is so valuable.

Perkins had offseason finger surgery after hurting his pinkie catching a pass on a trick play against Louisville, and he also banged up his ankle against Georgia Tech, left the game briefly, but came back in and also aggravated it at Virginia Tech but finished the game.

WR Hasise Dubois. Dubois, a senior, saw a big jump in production from 2017 (16 catches, 120 yards, one TD) to 2018 (52, 578, five), and he could be the leader in receptions this season and perhaps the TD receptions leader with Olamide Zaccheaus in the NFL. Zaccheaus caught 93 passes in 2018, breaking the single-season receptions record, which he also set in 2017 (85). Someone is going to have to move the chains at times, and Dubois is the most likely candidate unless Virginia calls a running back dive on third-and-short or Perkins does his thing with his feet. Dubois is a big receiver at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds that can go up and fight for balls in the air.

Defensive players to watch: CB Bryce Hall. Hall -- a former two-star recruit that shows how badly recruiting services can miss (or maybe the potential for player development under Mendenhall) -- decided to return for his senior season despite possibly being a first-round NFL draft pick. He could be a top-10 pick next year if he has another great season.

Hall is listed as having 22 passes broken up last season on VirginiaSports.com and credited with 21 passes defended at the College Football Reference website, a number which led the nation and was three clear of No. 2. Hall, known as a meticulous student of game film, added 62 tackles, 3.5 for losses, two sacks, two interceptions, and two forced fumbles to his ledger. Simply put, having Hall gives the Wahoos a lockdown defender on one side of the field and shrinks the space the offense wants to work in.

LB Jordan Mack. Like Hall, Mack is a senior who has been with Mendenhall since his first season in 2016 and shows the player development ability of the staff. Two seasons ago, Mack finished only behind the tackling machines of Micah Kiser and Quin Blanding on the team's leaderboard with 114 stops. Last year, Mack hurt his shoulder and played in nine of 13 games but still finished second on the team to Juan Thornhill with 66 tackles, with six of those going for losses, 2.5 sacks, a breakup, and four QB hits.

Mack is one of two defensive captains along with Hall.
Special teams players to watch: KR Joe Reed. Reed, a senior, led the ACC for the second year in a row at 27.2 yards per kick return. He scored his lone touchdown against Liberty.

K Brian Delaney. Delaney finally brought some consistency to the kicking spot after it had experienced a rough first two seasons under Mendenhall. Delaney, a junior, took over the kicking duties against Miami on Oct. 13, making all three of his field goals, including a 46-yarder as the first-half clock expired, which ended up being crucial, because Virginia won 16-13. On the season, Delaney went 12 of 16, with that 46-yard boot being his longest.

Schedule: at Pittsburgh, vs. William & Mary, vs. Florida State, vs. Old Dominion, at Notre Dame, at Miami, vs. Duke, at Louisville, at North Carolina, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Liberty, vs. Virginia Tech.

Outlook: Virginia is set to begin a season of great expectations, almost as high as any in its history, but the Hoos aren't ranked in the preseason, as they were in 2003, 04, and 05. For the curious, UVa is 32nd in the Associated Press Top 25 in the others receiving votes category and 37th in the coaches poll. However, the Cavaliers were picked to win the Coastal Division for the first time since the conference went to divisions in 2005, and at least one bowl projection has them in the Orange Bowl
DE Eli Hanback (58) and LB Jordan Mack (37)
are two of the cornerstones of the defense.
facing Florida. It is a far cry from being picked last in each of Mendenhall's first three seasons. Such lofty thoughts are foreign around Scott Stadium in the fall normally, and fans are probably skittish to buy in, but maybe the men's basketball national championship shifted some attitudes to expect better. Yes, Virginia had plenty of titles in other sports before April, but getting one in a major sport could be a big confidence-booster for long-suffering fans of the revenue sports.

Granted, one of the reasons UVa is picked to win the division is because of the weakness of the Coastal. It is rated the worst Power Five division. But the team has the depth, experience, talent, and player development to make real waves this season and not just be a 7-5-type division winner like Pitt was a year ago.

Last year's offense took a step forward in scoring but still struggled when looking at the national rankings. It rated 84th in passing offense, 60th in rushing offense, and tied for 70th in scoring offense.

Even if Perkins gets hurt, Virginia can feel pretty good about its backup. Brennan Armstrong is a stout 6-2 220-pounder who helped the offense last season against Louisville and Georgia Tech by passing and running when Perkins was temporarily out. Like Perkins, he exhibited a cool demeanor, and he did not look like a true freshman. Thanks to the new NCAA rules of being able to play in four games and still retain a redshirt, he was able to get an extra year of eligibility, so he is a redshirt freshman in 2019 and not a true sophomore. Obviously, fans hope Perkins can lead the team all season and remain healthy. But Armstrong looks like a pretty good insurance option that wouldn't let the offense go completely off the rails.

At running back, Jordan Ellis has graduated, off to the NFL as he tries to make the Bengals' roster. He was named the hardest worker by his teammates in the preseason for each of Mendenhall's first three years, and his work ethic and leadership will be missed. He finished his career with his best season in 2018, becoming Virginia's first 1,000-yard rusher since Kevin Parks in 2013. Ellis' skill set can be replaced, though. He was a bulldozing runner who didn't have great speed. In the first depth chart release of the season, 5-9, 210-pound sophomore Wayne Taulapapa was slated as the No. 1 back at the "small back" position, which is typically the running back that gets the most carries in Anae's offense. Taulapapa is a Mormon who went on his two-year mission before joining the football team last season. This means he is older than your typical second-year. He showed some impressive vision in the spring game and an ability to hit holes quickly. He didn't get any carries last year, only playing on special teams. The depth chart features an "or" between his name and two players behind him, 6-foot, 235-pound junior PK Kier and 5-10, 205-pound junior Lamont Atkins. This indicates all three could see carries against Pitt. Kier and Atkins have both seen limited work in the their first two years, though Kier was thought to have the most direct line to being the No. 1 back, so we will see how this situation develops. At the "big back" position, the first two names are the same as last season: 6-foot, 245-pound junior Jamari Peacock and 6-1, 200-pound senior Chris Sharp, who caught five passes last season with two going for scores. Their primary role is to block. Promising true freshman Mike Hollins is also listed behind them on the depth chart.


At wideout, obviously the loss of Zaccheaus, the UVa record holder for catches in a season and a career, stings. He's looking to make the Falcons' roster now. But Dubois is a solid returner who has steadily improved, and other players are waiting to break out, too. Reed, the return man extraordinaire, is a speedster who caught 23 passes in 2017 and 25 in 2018 with an 18.6-yards-per-catch average and seven touchdowns, behind only Zaccheaus' nine. Junior Terrell Jana caught just 11 passes last year -- recording one TD vs. Pitt -- but is listed as one of the starters to begin the season, so his opportunity is expanding. Zaccheaus was listed as an H-back but moved all over the field thanks to his versatility and ability to carry the ball and, of course, catch passes. Two players (similar in small stature to OZ) are slated to fill his role as of now, both sophomores: Tavares Kelly, who recorded 10 receptions a year ago, and Billy Kemp, who saw some time on special teams. Mendenhall has said they are Zaccheaus-like and just need grow in their consistency. Other names to watch for are graduate transfers Terrell Chatman (Arizona State) and Dejon Brissett (Richmond), the latter of whom caught 63 passes and seven TDs in 2017 for the Spiders but missed most of last season with an injury, junior Chuck Davis, who has primarily been a punt returner, and true freshman Dorien Goddard.

Senior Tanner Cowley is taking over for the graduated Evan Butts at tight end, a position which doesn't have great prominence in this offense. In 2018, Cowley caught four passes.
WR Hasise Dubois really increased
his production a year ago.

The offensive line returns three starters: 6-4, 315-pound sophomore left tackle Ryan Nelson, 6-3, 305-pound junior left guard Chris Glaser, and 6-6, 300-pound right guard Dillon Reinkensmeyer. Starting at center is 6-3, 305-pound sophomore Olusegun Oluwatimi, and starting at right tackle is 6-10, 300-pound sophomore Ryan Swoboda.

The defense fared much better than the offense, ranking 16th against the pass, 47th against the run, and 20th in points allowed. The strength of this year's Cavaliers is likely to be on this side of the ball again.

The line is much deeper than last season. At one end, UVa gets back senior Richard Burney, who lasted only three games in 2018 before an undisclosed injury ended his season. He collected two tackles for losses and a forced fumble and gets the Week 1 start. The depth behind Burney includes sophomores Aaron Faumui (seven tackles, one for loss, one sack) and Tommy Christ (10 tackles, one for loss, one sack). At the other end is senior stalwart Eli Hanback, and he recorded 46 tackles, three for losses, and two sacks. Behind him is junior Mandy Alonso (21 tackles, 2.5 for losses, 1.5 sacks), who got hurt against Pitt last season and didn't see the field again. His presence was certainly felt as the Panthers immediately began to run the ball better. Four-star true freshman Jowon Briggs is slated to go at nose tackle. Backing him up is sophomore Jordan Redmond, who played in eight games last season, tallying 10 tackles, two for losses.

The linebacking corps lost Chris Peace, who has impressed in the preseason with the Chargers, but brings back a wealth of experience and production in addition to Mack, who will start at one of the middle slots. Slated to start at the two outside spots are two giants: 6-7 junior Charles Snowden, who really broke out last season with 61 tackles, 7.5 for losses, 2.5 sacks, two picks, nine breakups, and a forced fumble, and 6-5 sophomore Noah Taylor, who saw a lot of time on special teams and beat out junior Matt Gahm (nine tackles, 1.5 for losses, 1.5 sacks) for the start this week, though the depth chart features the "or," so look for both to see time. Beside Mack in the middle is junior Zane Zandier (63 tackles, five for losses, two sacks), whose awesome nickname is "ZZ Stop." The depth at linebacker includes junior Elliott Brown (one sack, one pick), junior Robert Snyder (53 tackles, 1.5 for losses, one sack), and true freshman Nick Jackson.

The secondary includes the All-American Hall at one corner, and the other side now has sophomore Nick Grant listed first after the loss of Darrius Bratton to a season-ending knee injury. Cornerback depth includes redshirt freshman Jaylon Baker and sophomore Heskin Smith. At safety, Juan Thornhill -- now with the Chiefs -- is a big loss, but junior starters Joey Blount (65 tackles, five for losses, two picks, three breakups) and Brenton Nelson (41 tackles, 1.5 for losses, one INT, eight breakups) are very good in their own right. Safety depth includes juniors Chris Moore (did not play last year because of an injury; in 2017, he had 41 tackles, two for losses, and a pick) and De'Vante Cross (13 tackles, one INT).
CB Bryce Hall is ready to lock down some wideouts.

Mendenhall has progressed from two wins to six and then eight in his first three seasons. The last time UVa won nine games was 2007, and you wouldn't be wrong in pointing out that this offense should be better than the '07 offense, and the defenses are comparable. Ten victories is not out of the question but has happened just once in program history -- 1989 -- and as a fan, it is hard to imagine that scenario, but I can't just completely ignore the possibility, which is saying something about the program's progression. The schedule is not overly daunting, with the only truly tough stretch coming at Notre Dame (preseason top 10) and then at Miami. However, we have to acknowledge Virginia Tech's mental hold on UVa, with last season's win there for the taking, and somehow, it still didn't happen. But the Wahoos have reason to feel confident against almost every team on the schedule.

The key to the season for me is the opening four-game stretch. William & Mary and Old Dominion should be wins, but Virginia doesn't have to look far for a reminder of what can happen if it isn't ready -- last year, ODU won four games but downed the Hokies, and the Tribe took down the Cavaliers in Charlottesville a decade ago. Neither team is likely to be good again, but UVa needs to take each game seriously, and I think Mendenhall does a good job of mentally preparing his team each week for that particular opponent.

Pitt and FSU are those early toss-up contests that could reveal what kind of season Virginia has in store. The Panthers won the division last season but lost a lot of players, and the Seminoles were downright awful at times. But Pitt has given UVa plenty of problems recently, and the Seminoles still have talent and will be in their second year under Willie Taggart, so Virginia could easily be 2-2 after the first four games. The Hoos could also just as easily be 4-0.

Coach Bronco Mendenhall is hoping for another
end-of-season celebration in 2019.
I'm calling for modest improvement but not an all-time season. Modest improvement could mean a win over the Hokies and even a division title, but not nine wins, as we saw last season with Pitt. As long as injuries don't devastate the roster, the program is set up as good as it has been in a long while. Those should be the two main goals -- beating Tech and winning the division -- because both are within reach. If the team can achieve both, then that is a very successful season. If it can do one of those things, it'll still probably be a good season. But if the Cavaliers fall short of both of those goals, that could be tough to swallow. Minus those two achievements, though, if Virginia goes 7-5 or 8-4 and can win a bowl again, a fan base that has been through some recent dark times should not be ungrateful.

Win-loss prediction: 7-5 or 8-4

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