Last week: 6-3 Season: 75-24
This isn't a very big week in college football, but Florida-Georgia is super important, and Florida State-Miami is usually tight and fun, even if it isn't well-played these days. SMU-Memphis battle in a different-sounding big matchup. Let's get to the picks
N.C. State (4-3) at No. 23 Wake Forest (6-1), Noon, ESPN
Wake Forest 31, N.C. State 21
Boston College (4-4) at Syracuse (3-5), Noon, ACC Network
Boston College 31, Syracuse 28
Virginia Tech (5-2) at No. 16 Notre Dame (5-2), 2:30 p.m. NBC
The Hokies had a week off after beating North Carolina in a stunning, six-overtime affair two weeks ago in Blacksburg. The Irish, their playoff hopes dashed, are going to be trying to get back on track after getting blasted by Michigan. Tech appears to have a found a spark with Quincy Patterson at quarterback, but I think Notre Dame wins.
Notre Dame 34, Virginia Tech 21
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
No. 8 Georgia (6-1) vs. No. 6 Florida (7-1) in Jacksonville, 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Gators have played remarkably well with backup QB Kyle Trask, hanging with LSU in Baton Rouge and picking up solid victories over Auburn and South Carolina, which was coming off an upset of ... Georgia. The Bulldogs recovered from that loss by beating Kentucky, 21-0, last week. This game hasn't been decided by single digits since 2013 when Georgia won, 23-20. I like the Bulldogs in a close game.
Georgia 27, Florida 23
Miami (4-4) at Florida State (4-4), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The winner has the inside track to six wins and a bowl game and the loser ... does not. Manny Diaz should be safe at Miami in his first season, but Willie Taggart might need to make the postseason just to stick around, and even that might not be enough. The Hurricanes lost to Georgia Tech two weeks ago but then won at Pitt last week. FSU lost two in a row before getting back on track and blowing out Syracuse at home. The past five games have been decided by single digits.
Florida State 30, Miami 27
Wofford (5-2) at No. 4 Clemson (8-0), 4 p.m. ACC Network
Clemson 56, Wofford 7
Pittsburgh (5-3) at Georgia Tech (2-5), 4 p.m. ACC Network Extra
The Panthers losing to Miami a week after the Hurricanes lost to the Yellow Jackets isn't that surprising really: That's the ACC Coastal for ya. And Pitt, though it was 5-2 going into last week, had three wins by three or fewer points, one by seven, and one by 10. The Panthers haven't dominated anyone, though sticking with Penn State and taking down UCF were solid performances. I like the Panthers to get back on track against Tech, which was off last week.
Pittsburgh 27, Georgia Tech 17
No. 15 SMU (8-0) at No. 24 Memphis (7-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
For the first time, "College GameDay" is originating from Elvis' city. The American Athletic Conference is probably better than the ACC this year: SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati (6-1), UCF (6-2), Temple (5-3), Navy (6-1), and Tulane (5-3) would all probably give major headaches to the Coastal Division and most of the Atlantic Division teams. Memphis' one loss this season is to Temple. SMU still has to face Navy and Tulane, and if the Mustangs win the division, they'd then draw Cincy, UCF, or Temple in the AAC championship game, so they have a long way to go still to get to 13-0 in their hopes to snag a spot in a New Year's bowl as the highest-finishing team of the Group of Five conferences (AAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, CUSA, MAC). The Tigers have won the past five matchups in this series, most in blowout fashion. Only 2018's 28-18 result was close. I like Memphis to knock off SMU in a tight contest.
Memphis 38, SMU 35
South's Oldest Rivalry
Virginia (5-3) at North Carolina (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The South’s Oldest Rivalry is renewed for a 124th time with the division lead on the line in Chapel Hill.
Coach Mack Brown has done a pretty solid job with the Tar Heels in his first season back at the school. UNC was 3-9 in 2017 and 2-9 a year ago and 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less from 2017-18. Chances are this is going to be a close game. That's all the Tar Heels play in this season. They have wins over South Carolina (24-20), Miami (28-25), Georgia Tech (38-22), and Duke (20-17) and losses to Wake Forest (24-18), Appalachian State (34-31), Clemson (21-20), and Virginia Tech (43-41). So Brown has UNC winning a few more close ones, and that's enough to go bowling in the ACC Coastal. Not only that, UNC is in contention for the Coastal crown. Indeed, the victor in this matchup takes first place – for now. Things change quickly in this jumbled division, known affectionately as Coastal chaos, where preseason favorite Virginia is faltering a bit, while UNC, picked sixth, is performing better than expected, albeit still nothing special. But again, that’s all
it takes in this wacky division.
UVa isn't immune to playing in close games, with three of its five ACC games coming down to the end: a victory over Florida State (31-24) and setbacks to Miami (17-9) and Louisville (28-21). All three of those games came down to final plays in which a team was trying to reach the end zone and hopefully get in position to tie the game.
UNC is 34th in passing offense, 69th in rushing offense, 57th in passing defense, and 73rd in rushing defense. True freshman quarterback Sam Howell has played very well, completing 58.9 percent of his passes, which isn't overly impressive, but he's tossed 22 touchdowns to only five interceptions and averages 264.88 yards per game, which is first. The Tar Heels have two running backs averaging at least five yards per carry, Javonte Williams (5.5) and Michael Carter (5). Williams has three scores, and Carter has yet to cross the goal line. I didn't count Antonio Williams, because he only has 19 carries, but he's actually averaging 7.2 yards. Virginia's rush defense will need to be on its toes, as well as the defense as a whole. Catching most of Howell's passes is Dazz Newsome, with 42 receptions and six TDs. Dyami Brown (26, five TDs), Beau Corrales (25, five TDs), and Rontavius Groves (20, one score) all have at least 20 catches.
Linebackers Chaz Surratt and Tomon Fox have five sacks each, and UNC has 22 as a whole. The Heels have eight picks, with DB Myles Wolfork grabbing three. North Carolina is +3 in turnover margin, which has been a big issue for the Cavaliers in their losses.
Virginia has won the past two games in the series, 20-14 in Chapel Hill in 2017, and 31-21 last season in Charlottesville. UNC won seven straight in the series before that. If UVa can hit on all cylinders on offense, it can win this game. But that rarely happens, especially on the road. The Heels just beat Duke by three, a week after Virginia crushed the Devils by 34, but in the ACC, it is all about which team shows up. And I like UNC to show up better at home, especially if Bryce Perkins continues to not quite be himself in terms of his health or his performance, both of which are tied together and woven into the issue of the offensive line. UNC seems to only play in tight contests, and I think this will be the same, and I feel like something bad and weird will happen that will hurt UVa's chances.
North Carolina 26, Virginia 23
This isn't a very big week in college football, but Florida-Georgia is super important, and Florida State-Miami is usually tight and fun, even if it isn't well-played these days. SMU-Memphis battle in a different-sounding big matchup. Let's get to the picks
N.C. State (4-3) at No. 23 Wake Forest (6-1), Noon, ESPN
Wake Forest 31, N.C. State 21
Boston College (4-4) at Syracuse (3-5), Noon, ACC Network
Boston College 31, Syracuse 28
Virginia Tech (5-2) at No. 16 Notre Dame (5-2), 2:30 p.m. NBC
The Hokies had a week off after beating North Carolina in a stunning, six-overtime affair two weeks ago in Blacksburg. The Irish, their playoff hopes dashed, are going to be trying to get back on track after getting blasted by Michigan. Tech appears to have a found a spark with Quincy Patterson at quarterback, but I think Notre Dame wins.
Notre Dame 34, Virginia Tech 21
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
No. 8 Georgia (6-1) vs. No. 6 Florida (7-1) in Jacksonville, 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Gators have played remarkably well with backup QB Kyle Trask, hanging with LSU in Baton Rouge and picking up solid victories over Auburn and South Carolina, which was coming off an upset of ... Georgia. The Bulldogs recovered from that loss by beating Kentucky, 21-0, last week. This game hasn't been decided by single digits since 2013 when Georgia won, 23-20. I like the Bulldogs in a close game.
Georgia 27, Florida 23
Miami (4-4) at Florida State (4-4), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The winner has the inside track to six wins and a bowl game and the loser ... does not. Manny Diaz should be safe at Miami in his first season, but Willie Taggart might need to make the postseason just to stick around, and even that might not be enough. The Hurricanes lost to Georgia Tech two weeks ago but then won at Pitt last week. FSU lost two in a row before getting back on track and blowing out Syracuse at home. The past five games have been decided by single digits.
Florida State 30, Miami 27
Wofford (5-2) at No. 4 Clemson (8-0), 4 p.m. ACC Network
Clemson 56, Wofford 7
Pittsburgh (5-3) at Georgia Tech (2-5), 4 p.m. ACC Network Extra
The Panthers losing to Miami a week after the Hurricanes lost to the Yellow Jackets isn't that surprising really: That's the ACC Coastal for ya. And Pitt, though it was 5-2 going into last week, had three wins by three or fewer points, one by seven, and one by 10. The Panthers haven't dominated anyone, though sticking with Penn State and taking down UCF were solid performances. I like the Panthers to get back on track against Tech, which was off last week.
Pittsburgh 27, Georgia Tech 17
No. 15 SMU (8-0) at No. 24 Memphis (7-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
For the first time, "College GameDay" is originating from Elvis' city. The American Athletic Conference is probably better than the ACC this year: SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati (6-1), UCF (6-2), Temple (5-3), Navy (6-1), and Tulane (5-3) would all probably give major headaches to the Coastal Division and most of the Atlantic Division teams. Memphis' one loss this season is to Temple. SMU still has to face Navy and Tulane, and if the Mustangs win the division, they'd then draw Cincy, UCF, or Temple in the AAC championship game, so they have a long way to go still to get to 13-0 in their hopes to snag a spot in a New Year's bowl as the highest-finishing team of the Group of Five conferences (AAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, CUSA, MAC). The Tigers have won the past five matchups in this series, most in blowout fashion. Only 2018's 28-18 result was close. I like Memphis to knock off SMU in a tight contest.
Memphis 38, SMU 35
South's Oldest Rivalry
Virginia (5-3) at North Carolina (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The South’s Oldest Rivalry is renewed for a 124th time with the division lead on the line in Chapel Hill.
Coach Mack Brown has done a pretty solid job with the Tar Heels in his first season back at the school. UNC was 3-9 in 2017 and 2-9 a year ago and 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less from 2017-18. Chances are this is going to be a close game. That's all the Tar Heels play in this season. They have wins over South Carolina (24-20), Miami (28-25), Georgia Tech (38-22), and Duke (20-17) and losses to Wake Forest (24-18), Appalachian State (34-31), Clemson (21-20), and Virginia Tech (43-41). So Brown has UNC winning a few more close ones, and that's enough to go bowling in the ACC Coastal. Not only that, UNC is in contention for the Coastal crown. Indeed, the victor in this matchup takes first place – for now. Things change quickly in this jumbled division, known affectionately as Coastal chaos, where preseason favorite Virginia is faltering a bit, while UNC, picked sixth, is performing better than expected, albeit still nothing special. But again, that’s all
UVa isn't immune to playing in close games, with three of its five ACC games coming down to the end: a victory over Florida State (31-24) and setbacks to Miami (17-9) and Louisville (28-21). All three of those games came down to final plays in which a team was trying to reach the end zone and hopefully get in position to tie the game.
UNC is 34th in passing offense, 69th in rushing offense, 57th in passing defense, and 73rd in rushing defense. True freshman quarterback Sam Howell has played very well, completing 58.9 percent of his passes, which isn't overly impressive, but he's tossed 22 touchdowns to only five interceptions and averages 264.88 yards per game, which is first. The Tar Heels have two running backs averaging at least five yards per carry, Javonte Williams (5.5) and Michael Carter (5). Williams has three scores, and Carter has yet to cross the goal line. I didn't count Antonio Williams, because he only has 19 carries, but he's actually averaging 7.2 yards. Virginia's rush defense will need to be on its toes, as well as the defense as a whole. Catching most of Howell's passes is Dazz Newsome, with 42 receptions and six TDs. Dyami Brown (26, five TDs), Beau Corrales (25, five TDs), and Rontavius Groves (20, one score) all have at least 20 catches.
Linebackers Chaz Surratt and Tomon Fox have five sacks each, and UNC has 22 as a whole. The Heels have eight picks, with DB Myles Wolfork grabbing three. North Carolina is +3 in turnover margin, which has been a big issue for the Cavaliers in their losses.
Virginia has won the past two games in the series, 20-14 in Chapel Hill in 2017, and 31-21 last season in Charlottesville. UNC won seven straight in the series before that. If UVa can hit on all cylinders on offense, it can win this game. But that rarely happens, especially on the road. The Heels just beat Duke by three, a week after Virginia crushed the Devils by 34, but in the ACC, it is all about which team shows up. And I like UNC to show up better at home, especially if Bryce Perkins continues to not quite be himself in terms of his health or his performance, both of which are tied together and woven into the issue of the offensive line. UNC seems to only play in tight contests, and I think this will be the same, and I feel like something bad and weird will happen that will hurt UVa's chances.
North Carolina 26, Virginia 23
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