Note: This post has been edited following the conclusion of the North Carolina-Pittsburgh game to include 11 Saturday matchups. Check them out below.
Last week: 4-5 Season: 86-31
I missed on all of the big games last week, with LSU, Minnesota, and Virginia Tech pulling upsets, while Miami got its offense on track against Louisville, and FSU got a big win for interim coach Odell Haggins. Like Minnesota last week against Penn State, another surprising undefeated team gets a chance to make a big statement this week: This time, it is Baylor hosting Oklahoma. But the week gets started with a big ACC matchup, so let's get to it.
Thursday's game
North Carolina (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3), 8 p.m. ESPN
First, a look at the ACC Coastal standings so we can all get on the same page:
Virginia: 5-2
Virginia Tech: 3-2
Pittsburgh: 3-2
Miami: 4-3
North Carolina: 3-3
Duke: 2-3
Georgia Tech: 1-5
The Tar Heels come into Heinz Field off of a bye week after losing 38-31 to Virginia at home. The Panthers enter off of a bye week as well after defeating Georgia Tech, 20-10, in Atlanta. Both teams are two of the five – yes, five – that can still win the Coastal Division, with the other three being UVa, Virginia Tech, and Miami. The Cavaliers and Hokies are the only teams that control their destinies, though. Tech goes to Georgia Tech this weekend, hosts Pitt, and then travels to Charlottesville. Win out, and the Hokies battle Clemson in the ACC championship. It’s simple for the
‘Hoos, too, obviously: take down Virginia Tech for the first time since 2003, and they get the pleasure (?) of facing Clemson. The Panthers don’t control their destiny because of their loss way back on Aug. 31 to UVa. Therefore, they need to win out – this game, at Virginia Tech, vs. Boston College – and hope the Hokies down UVa. If that happens, Pitt wins the division for the second straight season. The scenarios are more complicated for the Hurricanes and Tar Heels to capture the Coastal, and I’ll let you look around the web for those possibilities.
This should be an entertaining game with all that’s at stake. UNC has had a better season than most probably expected, but it will be forced to win out to get to a bowl game if it loses to Pitt. The Tar Heels finish up by hosting Mercer and then going to N.C. State. As has been stated often in this space, North Carolina loves playing in close games. The average margin of victory in the Heels’ games is five. And guess what? Though they own the Panthers since the pair became ACC rivals – with UNC winning six straight in the series since 2013 – the average margin of victory is just 4.3. And the Panthers are no strangers to close contests in 2019, either. The average margin of victory in their games is six. Just because this would create the most Coastal chaos, I like North Carolina to continue its win streak against Pitt. But buckle up your chin strap tight for this one.
North Carolina 27, Pittsburgh 26
Note: I use the College Football Playoff rankings beside school names once they come out for the first time in November, only because I use ESPN.com to look up games I want to write about, and it uses CFP rankings rather than Associated Press rankings.
Indiana (7-2) at No. 9 Penn State (8-1), Noon, ABC
Twenty-five years. That's how long the Hoosiers have waited to be ranked in the AP top 25 (they are No. 23 this week, but are unranked in the CFP rankings). Can you imagine waiting for that long as a fan base, just to see a number beside your team? The last time Indiana was ranked was September 1994. Even Virginia, despite several rough years, recently went just seven years between appearing in the top 25 (2011 and then 2018). The last time IU won seven games was 2007, when it went 7-6. This team is aspiring for more, but winning at Penn State is a TALL task. The Nittany Lions will be angry following their loss to Minnesota. PSU will not lose to an upstart Big Ten team for the second straight week.
Penn State 38, Indiana 21
Paul Bunyan Trophy
Michigan State (4-5) at No. 15 Michigan (7-2), Noon, Fox
The Wolverines have had a nice season since their rough start when they almost lost to Army and got blasted by Wisconsin. Since that loss to the Badgers, they are 5-1 with an average score of 34.7-12.8. The only loss was to Penn State by seven, and Michigan has solid victories over Iowa, Notre Dame (by 31), and Illinois, which has been sneaky good at 6-4. Will that quiet the Jim Harbaugh critics? No, it won't. Only two things will do that: Getting to the playoffs and/or beating Ohio State. But Michigan is in better shape than MSU, which has really fallen on hard times. Longtime coach Mark Dantonio is under fire for having another subpar year. From 2010-2015, the Spartans won at least 11 games four times. Since 2016, though, MSU has one 10-win year (2017), a 3-9 campaign (2016) and a 7-6 finish (2018). Most recently, MSU led Illinois by 25 at home but lost, 37-34. With bad Rutgers and Maryland teams to close out the season, Sparty still has a good shot to get to six wins and bowl eligibility, but the heat is definitely on Dantonio, who is 63 and has been at the school since 2007.
Michigan 31, Michigan State 17
Alabama State (5-4) at Florida State (5-5), Noon, ACC Network Extra
Florida State 70, Alabama State 7
No. 23 Navy (7-1) at No. 16 Notre Dame (7-2), 2:30 p.m. NBC
The Midshipmen are having a good season but haven't quite played the schedule the Fighting Irish have. Navy's one loss was to Memphis, which is 8-1, by a score of 35-23. Otherwise, Navy's toughest opponents have been Air Force (7-2) and Tulane (6-3). It still has to face SMU, which is 9-1. Notre Dame hasn't faced a murderer's row, but did have to battle a great Georgia team on the road (close loss), a very good Michigan squad on the road (blowout loss), and solid foes in Virginia and Virginia Tech. Even Louisville has turned out to be decent. I think this will be a close game throughout, but the Irish will pull away and prevail with a late score.
Notre Dame 35, Navy 26
Wake Forest (7-2) at No. 3 Clemson (10-0), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Tigers have been on an absolute roll since their close call against North Carolina, outscoring their opponents by an average score of 52.6-11. Additionally, they felt a little slighted when the first CFP rankings were released, and they were outside the top four, so now they are out to prove something. The Demon Deacons were going to be big underdogs either way in this matchup, but now they've lost star wideout Sage Surratt for the season to a shoulder injury -- Surratt is tied for fifth in the NCAA in receiving TDs and is seventh in receiving yards per game -- and last week, Wake fell to Virginia Tech, 36-17, taking some of the shine off this matchup. But in reality, Clemson was probably going to win -- and win easily -- all along.
Clemson 52, Wake Forest 13
Deep South's Oldest Rivalry
No. 4 Georgia (8-1) at No. 12 Auburn (7-2), 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Tigers hope to play spoiler as the Bulldogs need to win out, including the SEC championship, to get to the playoffs. This is a pretty even matchup, with both defenses being very stout -- especially Georgia's, second only to Ohio State in scoring defense -- and offenses that are solid but not particularly explosive. The Bulldogs have won the past two meetings easily, 27-10 (2018) and 28-7 (2017), the latter of which came in the SEC championship. Earlier that same year, Auburn won the regular-season matchup easily, 40-17. Georgia's lone loss is the upset by South Carolina, 20-17, and Auburn's pair of setbacks came against Florida, 24-13, and LSU, 23-20. The Bulldogs beat the Gators, 24-17, and haven't played LSU. Georgia is a three-point favorite in this game, and I'll pick it by a field goal.
Georgia 23, Auburn 20
Virginia Tech (6-3) at Georgia Tech (2-7), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
It's tough for some Wahoos fans to give credit to the Hokies when it is due. But Tech has done a good job of pulling itself up by the bootstraps and playing much better since getting drubbed, 45-10, by Duke at home. Have the Hokies gotten lucky along the way? Yes, somewhat, but they played well enough now to win four of five, culminating last week in an impressive 36-17 victory over Wake Forest, which came to Blacksburg with a strong offense and just one loss. Football teams don't reject luck. QB Hendon Hooker has helped stabilize the passing game, and the running game and defense have shown steady improvement as well since the Duke disaster. This is a tricky game, though. The Jackets have shown steady improvement this season, too, though that hasn't always manifested itself in wins. But they've fought hard the past two weeks in losses to Pittsburgh at home, 20-10, and at Virginia, 33-28. Virginia Tech should win, but it needs to be careful.
Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 20
Floyd of Rosedale (it's a pig trophy)
No. 8 Minnesota (9-0) at No. 20 Iowa (6-3), 4 p.m. Fox
The Gophers won their huge home showcase last week against previously undefeated Penn State, 31-26, with the eyes of college football watching. Now, let's see if they can sustain their momentum in what could be as tough a game, but a little bit out of the spotlight, at the Hawkeyes' Kinnick Stadium, a very tough place to play. Can Minnesota get up for this road game, or will it experience a hangover? Iowa is actually favored by three and has missed on its three big chances so far in 2019, but barely, losing to Michigan, 10-3, Penn State, 17-12, and Wisconsin, 24-22. Only the PSU matchup was at home. Iowa has won the past four meetings, and Minnesota hasn't won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999. Is this the breakthrough game for the Hawkeyes or can the Gophers win for the first time this century in Iowa City?
Minnesota 23, Iowa 17
Syracuse (3-6) at Duke (4-5), 4 p.m. ACC Network
Duke 33, Syracuse 23
No. 10 Oklahoma (8-1) at No. 13 Baylor (9-0), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Minnesota isn't the only surprising undefeated team this season. Matt Rhule has done a really nice job in his third season with the Bears, as they've progressed from 1-11, to 7-6, to now being a playoff hopeful, though they are still very much on the outside looking in. This is a must-win for the Bears if they want to make a CFP run. If the Sooners take this, these teams are likely to meet again in the Big 12 championship, and if Baylor wins, it's still fairly likely to happen. Baylor has a tough one next week, too, vs. Texas. If Baylor loses this one and to Texas, the Longhorns and Sooners are likely to get a rematch in the conference title game. Oklahoma is a 10-point favorite, and though Baylor has had a pretty easy schedule so far -- its best win is over Kansas State (6-3) -- that seems like a lot of points, especially since the Sooners just lost to that same KSU team then almost tripped up the next week against Iowa State, winning 42-41. I'll take Oklahoma, but I think it'll be close.
Oklahoma 38, Baylor 34
Louisville (5-4) at N.C. State (4-5), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Louisville 30, N.C. State 24
Last week: 4-5 Season: 86-31
I missed on all of the big games last week, with LSU, Minnesota, and Virginia Tech pulling upsets, while Miami got its offense on track against Louisville, and FSU got a big win for interim coach Odell Haggins. Like Minnesota last week against Penn State, another surprising undefeated team gets a chance to make a big statement this week: This time, it is Baylor hosting Oklahoma. But the week gets started with a big ACC matchup, so let's get to it.
Thursday's game
North Carolina (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3), 8 p.m. ESPN
First, a look at the ACC Coastal standings so we can all get on the same page:
Virginia: 5-2
Virginia Tech: 3-2
Pittsburgh: 3-2
Miami: 4-3
North Carolina: 3-3
Duke: 2-3
Georgia Tech: 1-5
The Tar Heels come into Heinz Field off of a bye week after losing 38-31 to Virginia at home. The Panthers enter off of a bye week as well after defeating Georgia Tech, 20-10, in Atlanta. Both teams are two of the five – yes, five – that can still win the Coastal Division, with the other three being UVa, Virginia Tech, and Miami. The Cavaliers and Hokies are the only teams that control their destinies, though. Tech goes to Georgia Tech this weekend, hosts Pitt, and then travels to Charlottesville. Win out, and the Hokies battle Clemson in the ACC championship. It’s simple for the
This should be an entertaining game with all that’s at stake. UNC has had a better season than most probably expected, but it will be forced to win out to get to a bowl game if it loses to Pitt. The Tar Heels finish up by hosting Mercer and then going to N.C. State. As has been stated often in this space, North Carolina loves playing in close games. The average margin of victory in the Heels’ games is five. And guess what? Though they own the Panthers since the pair became ACC rivals – with UNC winning six straight in the series since 2013 – the average margin of victory is just 4.3. And the Panthers are no strangers to close contests in 2019, either. The average margin of victory in their games is six. Just because this would create the most Coastal chaos, I like North Carolina to continue its win streak against Pitt. But buckle up your chin strap tight for this one.
North Carolina 27, Pittsburgh 26
Note: I use the College Football Playoff rankings beside school names once they come out for the first time in November, only because I use ESPN.com to look up games I want to write about, and it uses CFP rankings rather than Associated Press rankings.
Indiana (7-2) at No. 9 Penn State (8-1), Noon, ABC
Twenty-five years. That's how long the Hoosiers have waited to be ranked in the AP top 25 (they are No. 23 this week, but are unranked in the CFP rankings). Can you imagine waiting for that long as a fan base, just to see a number beside your team? The last time Indiana was ranked was September 1994. Even Virginia, despite several rough years, recently went just seven years between appearing in the top 25 (2011 and then 2018). The last time IU won seven games was 2007, when it went 7-6. This team is aspiring for more, but winning at Penn State is a TALL task. The Nittany Lions will be angry following their loss to Minnesota. PSU will not lose to an upstart Big Ten team for the second straight week.
Penn State 38, Indiana 21
Paul Bunyan Trophy
Michigan State (4-5) at No. 15 Michigan (7-2), Noon, Fox
The Wolverines have had a nice season since their rough start when they almost lost to Army and got blasted by Wisconsin. Since that loss to the Badgers, they are 5-1 with an average score of 34.7-12.8. The only loss was to Penn State by seven, and Michigan has solid victories over Iowa, Notre Dame (by 31), and Illinois, which has been sneaky good at 6-4. Will that quiet the Jim Harbaugh critics? No, it won't. Only two things will do that: Getting to the playoffs and/or beating Ohio State. But Michigan is in better shape than MSU, which has really fallen on hard times. Longtime coach Mark Dantonio is under fire for having another subpar year. From 2010-2015, the Spartans won at least 11 games four times. Since 2016, though, MSU has one 10-win year (2017), a 3-9 campaign (2016) and a 7-6 finish (2018). Most recently, MSU led Illinois by 25 at home but lost, 37-34. With bad Rutgers and Maryland teams to close out the season, Sparty still has a good shot to get to six wins and bowl eligibility, but the heat is definitely on Dantonio, who is 63 and has been at the school since 2007.
Michigan 31, Michigan State 17
Alabama State (5-4) at Florida State (5-5), Noon, ACC Network Extra
Florida State 70, Alabama State 7
No. 23 Navy (7-1) at No. 16 Notre Dame (7-2), 2:30 p.m. NBC
The Midshipmen are having a good season but haven't quite played the schedule the Fighting Irish have. Navy's one loss was to Memphis, which is 8-1, by a score of 35-23. Otherwise, Navy's toughest opponents have been Air Force (7-2) and Tulane (6-3). It still has to face SMU, which is 9-1. Notre Dame hasn't faced a murderer's row, but did have to battle a great Georgia team on the road (close loss), a very good Michigan squad on the road (blowout loss), and solid foes in Virginia and Virginia Tech. Even Louisville has turned out to be decent. I think this will be a close game throughout, but the Irish will pull away and prevail with a late score.
Notre Dame 35, Navy 26
Wake Forest (7-2) at No. 3 Clemson (10-0), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Tigers have been on an absolute roll since their close call against North Carolina, outscoring their opponents by an average score of 52.6-11. Additionally, they felt a little slighted when the first CFP rankings were released, and they were outside the top four, so now they are out to prove something. The Demon Deacons were going to be big underdogs either way in this matchup, but now they've lost star wideout Sage Surratt for the season to a shoulder injury -- Surratt is tied for fifth in the NCAA in receiving TDs and is seventh in receiving yards per game -- and last week, Wake fell to Virginia Tech, 36-17, taking some of the shine off this matchup. But in reality, Clemson was probably going to win -- and win easily -- all along.
Clemson 52, Wake Forest 13
Deep South's Oldest Rivalry
No. 4 Georgia (8-1) at No. 12 Auburn (7-2), 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Tigers hope to play spoiler as the Bulldogs need to win out, including the SEC championship, to get to the playoffs. This is a pretty even matchup, with both defenses being very stout -- especially Georgia's, second only to Ohio State in scoring defense -- and offenses that are solid but not particularly explosive. The Bulldogs have won the past two meetings easily, 27-10 (2018) and 28-7 (2017), the latter of which came in the SEC championship. Earlier that same year, Auburn won the regular-season matchup easily, 40-17. Georgia's lone loss is the upset by South Carolina, 20-17, and Auburn's pair of setbacks came against Florida, 24-13, and LSU, 23-20. The Bulldogs beat the Gators, 24-17, and haven't played LSU. Georgia is a three-point favorite in this game, and I'll pick it by a field goal.
Georgia 23, Auburn 20
Virginia Tech (6-3) at Georgia Tech (2-7), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
It's tough for some Wahoos fans to give credit to the Hokies when it is due. But Tech has done a good job of pulling itself up by the bootstraps and playing much better since getting drubbed, 45-10, by Duke at home. Have the Hokies gotten lucky along the way? Yes, somewhat, but they played well enough now to win four of five, culminating last week in an impressive 36-17 victory over Wake Forest, which came to Blacksburg with a strong offense and just one loss. Football teams don't reject luck. QB Hendon Hooker has helped stabilize the passing game, and the running game and defense have shown steady improvement as well since the Duke disaster. This is a tricky game, though. The Jackets have shown steady improvement this season, too, though that hasn't always manifested itself in wins. But they've fought hard the past two weeks in losses to Pittsburgh at home, 20-10, and at Virginia, 33-28. Virginia Tech should win, but it needs to be careful.
Virginia Tech 34, Georgia Tech 20
Floyd of Rosedale (it's a pig trophy)
No. 8 Minnesota (9-0) at No. 20 Iowa (6-3), 4 p.m. Fox
The Gophers won their huge home showcase last week against previously undefeated Penn State, 31-26, with the eyes of college football watching. Now, let's see if they can sustain their momentum in what could be as tough a game, but a little bit out of the spotlight, at the Hawkeyes' Kinnick Stadium, a very tough place to play. Can Minnesota get up for this road game, or will it experience a hangover? Iowa is actually favored by three and has missed on its three big chances so far in 2019, but barely, losing to Michigan, 10-3, Penn State, 17-12, and Wisconsin, 24-22. Only the PSU matchup was at home. Iowa has won the past four meetings, and Minnesota hasn't won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999. Is this the breakthrough game for the Hawkeyes or can the Gophers win for the first time this century in Iowa City?
Minnesota 23, Iowa 17
Syracuse (3-6) at Duke (4-5), 4 p.m. ACC Network
Duke 33, Syracuse 23
No. 10 Oklahoma (8-1) at No. 13 Baylor (9-0), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Minnesota isn't the only surprising undefeated team this season. Matt Rhule has done a really nice job in his third season with the Bears, as they've progressed from 1-11, to 7-6, to now being a playoff hopeful, though they are still very much on the outside looking in. This is a must-win for the Bears if they want to make a CFP run. If the Sooners take this, these teams are likely to meet again in the Big 12 championship, and if Baylor wins, it's still fairly likely to happen. Baylor has a tough one next week, too, vs. Texas. If Baylor loses this one and to Texas, the Longhorns and Sooners are likely to get a rematch in the conference title game. Oklahoma is a 10-point favorite, and though Baylor has had a pretty easy schedule so far -- its best win is over Kansas State (6-3) -- that seems like a lot of points, especially since the Sooners just lost to that same KSU team then almost tripped up the next week against Iowa State, winning 42-41. I'll take Oklahoma, but I think it'll be close.
Oklahoma 38, Baylor 34
Louisville (5-4) at N.C. State (4-5), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
Louisville 30, N.C. State 24
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