College Football Playoff, Dec. 28
Peach Bowl: No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 LSU in Atlanta
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 2 Ohio State in Glendale
The College Football Playoff is set, but like last season, I'd like to look at a couple of different iterations of what eight- and 16-team playoff formats would like. The top four is pretty clear cut this season. Every undefeated and one-loss Power Five team is in. During the rivalry and conference championship weekends, Georgia, Utah, Alabama, and Baylor all had opportunities to make their statements and not lose a second game, and they all failed.
Analysts have said that this year is an example of why four teams is the correct number. That may be the case in 2019, but it isn't the case each season. And that's no fun. I still want to see what matchups
we'd get if the playoffs were expanded.
First, for reference, here's the top 16 in the CFP rankings, which I will use for my seedings (no, all of these teams would not get in the 16-team playoff as I've constructed it): 1. LSU. 2. Ohio State. 3. Clemson. 4. Oklahoma. 5. Georgia. 6. Oregon. 7. Baylor. 8. Wisconsin. 9. Florida. 10. Penn State. 11. Utah. 12. Auburn. 13. Alabama. 14. Michigan. 15. Notre Dame. 16. Iowa.
Ok here we go, starting with two setups for an eight-team playoff.
Eight-team playoff: Group of 5 'champ,' two wild cards
If the playoff gets expanded at some point, this seems to be the favored option, where every Power Five (P5) champ gets in, no matter those teams' rankings, the best Group of Five (G5) team gets in, no matter its ranking, and then two wild cards receive berths, regardless of conference. For the critics who say the little guys deserve a chance to sit at the big table, this setup is satisfying. Interestingly, this season, one of the biggest arguments comes when determining which is the best G5 school. It was a great season for three G5 teams, all of whom finished 12-1 with conference titles (with CFP ranking in parentheses): Memphis (17), Boise State (19), and Appalachian State (20). Unfortunately, only one would get chosen in this format, and it is Memphis, which would get the eighth seed by virtue of being the lowest ranked team in this bracket. So here's how a first round would set up this year in this type of format, where teams are seeded based on ranking, not whether they won a conference title (i.e., Georgia is seeded ahead of Oregon despite the Bulldogs not having won the SEC but the Ducks having won the Pac-12):
No. 1 LSU (SEC, 13-0) vs. No. 8 Memphis (G5 best team, 12-1)
No. 4 Oklahoma (Big 12, 12-1) vs. No. 5 Georgia (wild card, 11-2)
No. 3 Clemson (ACC, 13-0) vs. No. 6 Oregon (Pac-12, 11-2)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten, 13-0) vs. No. 7 Baylor (wild card, 11-2)
First four out: Wisconsin, Florida, Penn State, Utah
Memphis would get a shot against LSU in a fantastic regional battle, Oklahoma and Georgia would meet up again after their wild playoff game from two seasons ago, an improving Oregon team would test defending champ Clemson, and upstart Baylor would get a crack at OSU in a battle of promising young coaches.
Wisconsin would be the first team out, presumably knocked out by Memphis, and I have no issue with that, since the Badgers had three losses, including one to a 6-6 Illinois team. Florida, with losses to only LSU and Georgia, would probably have the biggest gripe at being left out of this format, but oh well. The argument would still be the same as it is now. The Gators had a shot to win the SEC East with one loss, but they fell to Georgia by a touchdown. Simply put, had Florida won that game, it would replace Georgia in this format. The Gators just didn't get the job done.
Eight-team playoff: three wild cards
In this format, the G5 champ will often get left out, which obviously will draw some critics. But on the flip side, this could be the format that gets the "best" conferences' champs in, plus the "best" at-large teams, as determined by the CFP committee. Let's take a look at how this bracket would look:
No. 1 LSU vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (wild card)
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 5 Georgia (wild card)
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 6 Oregon
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Baylor (wild card)
First four out: Florida, Penn State, Utah, Auburn
The only difference between this format and the first one is Wisconsin gets in as a third wild card, booting out Memphis. Wisconsin already proved it isn't elite, with two double-digit losses to OSU, with the second loss coming in the Big Ten title game with the Badgers up 14-0. They had their shot and blew it. To me, this format isn't that exciting since we probably know what to expect in LSU-Wisconsin, and the little guy doesn't get its shot. Would Memphis beat LSU? Not likely, but the specter of what could be makes that matchup more exciting and seems more fair since I like the idea of giving the best G5 team an opportunity.
16-team playoff: 10 champs, six wild cards
There are obviously several ways to set up these tournaments. With 16 teams, though, I say give every conference champ a reward for winning a league, no matter how small the chances are they actually advance. Plus, there are still six wild cards, so any P5 team worth its salt can still get in. Let's take a look at this bracket:
No. 1 LSU (SEC, 13-0) vs. No. 16 Miami, Ohio (MAC, 8-5)
No. 8 Wisconsin (wild card, 10-3) vs. No. 9 Florida (wild card, 10-2)
No. 4 Oklahoma (Big 12, 12-1) vs. No. 13 Boise State (Mountain West, 12-1)
No. 5 Georgia (wild card, 11-2) vs. No. 12 Memphis (AAC, 12-1)
No. 6 Oregon (Pac-12, 11-2) vs. No. 11 Utah (wild card, 11-2)
No. 3 Clemson (ACC, 13-0) vs. No. 14 Appalachian State (Sun Belt, 12-1)
No. 7 Baylor (wild card, 11-2) vs. No. 10 Penn State (wild card, 10-2)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten, 13-0) vs. No. 15 Florida Atlantic (CUSA, 10-3)
First four out: Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame
An unfortunate thing that jumps out to me here is a second straight matchup between Utah and Oregon after they just played in the Pac-12 championship. Not sure how that would go over, and the first meeting wasn't even a good game, but LSU and Alabama did meet in the BCS championship in 2012 after facing each other in a low-scoring regular-season game. But outside of that, there are some juicy matchups. Oklahoma vs. Boise would rekindle memories of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl when the Broncos upset the Sooners in one of the best college football games in history. Memphis-Georgia is a
nice regional game, and Appalachian State-Clemson would create a similar buzz in the Carolinas. Baylor-Penn State pits two of the nation's best young coaches in the Bears' Matt Rhule and the Nittany Lions' James Franklin. And where did Rhule go to school? Right, Penn State. And Wisconsin-Florida sounds like a second-tier bowl game, so that already sounds like a solid first-round game.
Finally, there's Alabama, and they are not even the first team out of the playoff. It shows you how far the Crimson Tide fell this year (still, just two losses) for them to not even be in this type of 16-team playoff. Now, of course, another possible setup would be to just put all of the top 16 from the CFP rankings in the playoff. In that scenario, the best G5 team is left out in favor of a slew of two- and even three-loss P5 squads. However, it would create some interesting matchups. Alabama would be the No. 13 seed, which means it would face No. 4 Oklahoma in the first round. Despite Alabama's dip this season, do you think the Sooners would really enjoy facing the Tide in the first round? Didn't think so.
How many teams in these expanded playoffs would have legitimate shots at winning the title? Probably not many, but would anyone want to go up against Georgia in the playoff? Florida? Penn State or Alabama? Probably not. Critics like to say the playoff as it is presently built crowns the best team. That may be, but in professional sports, teams are allowed to go on miraculous runs and win titles, and this also can happen in the NCAA tournament. But you don't hear many people complaining and saying, well, the No. 6 seed from the AFC that won the Super Bowl, it wasn't the best team all season. Instead, you usually see stories about how such a team turned it on at the right time and was the best team when it counted. Do I think Eli Manning and the Giants, especially in 2011, got lucky? Yes. But no one can take those two Lombardi Trophies from Eli, and they are propelling him to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He played his best football at the right times.
Expanded playoffs would also just be more fun, and more would be on the line. Instead of, for instance, Virginia and Florida playing in a one-off Orange Bowl, what if the winner advanced into the second round? UVa fans, can you imagine the Wahoos not only pulling off the upset and downing the Gators, but ADVANCING in the playoffs? How cool would that be?
There's also so much money in college athletics, that it has to be a factor in expansion. I think it will happen someday. Once it does, it'll be interesting to see the format that is selected.
Peach Bowl: No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 LSU in Atlanta
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 2 Ohio State in Glendale
The College Football Playoff is set, but like last season, I'd like to look at a couple of different iterations of what eight- and 16-team playoff formats would like. The top four is pretty clear cut this season. Every undefeated and one-loss Power Five team is in. During the rivalry and conference championship weekends, Georgia, Utah, Alabama, and Baylor all had opportunities to make their statements and not lose a second game, and they all failed.
Analysts have said that this year is an example of why four teams is the correct number. That may be the case in 2019, but it isn't the case each season. And that's no fun. I still want to see what matchups
First, for reference, here's the top 16 in the CFP rankings, which I will use for my seedings (no, all of these teams would not get in the 16-team playoff as I've constructed it): 1. LSU. 2. Ohio State. 3. Clemson. 4. Oklahoma. 5. Georgia. 6. Oregon. 7. Baylor. 8. Wisconsin. 9. Florida. 10. Penn State. 11. Utah. 12. Auburn. 13. Alabama. 14. Michigan. 15. Notre Dame. 16. Iowa.
Ok here we go, starting with two setups for an eight-team playoff.
Eight-team playoff: Group of 5 'champ,' two wild cards
If the playoff gets expanded at some point, this seems to be the favored option, where every Power Five (P5) champ gets in, no matter those teams' rankings, the best Group of Five (G5) team gets in, no matter its ranking, and then two wild cards receive berths, regardless of conference. For the critics who say the little guys deserve a chance to sit at the big table, this setup is satisfying. Interestingly, this season, one of the biggest arguments comes when determining which is the best G5 school. It was a great season for three G5 teams, all of whom finished 12-1 with conference titles (with CFP ranking in parentheses): Memphis (17), Boise State (19), and Appalachian State (20). Unfortunately, only one would get chosen in this format, and it is Memphis, which would get the eighth seed by virtue of being the lowest ranked team in this bracket. So here's how a first round would set up this year in this type of format, where teams are seeded based on ranking, not whether they won a conference title (i.e., Georgia is seeded ahead of Oregon despite the Bulldogs not having won the SEC but the Ducks having won the Pac-12):
No. 1 LSU (SEC, 13-0) vs. No. 8 Memphis (G5 best team, 12-1)
No. 4 Oklahoma (Big 12, 12-1) vs. No. 5 Georgia (wild card, 11-2)
No. 3 Clemson (ACC, 13-0) vs. No. 6 Oregon (Pac-12, 11-2)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten, 13-0) vs. No. 7 Baylor (wild card, 11-2)
First four out: Wisconsin, Florida, Penn State, Utah
Memphis would get a shot against LSU in a fantastic regional battle, Oklahoma and Georgia would meet up again after their wild playoff game from two seasons ago, an improving Oregon team would test defending champ Clemson, and upstart Baylor would get a crack at OSU in a battle of promising young coaches.
Wisconsin would be the first team out, presumably knocked out by Memphis, and I have no issue with that, since the Badgers had three losses, including one to a 6-6 Illinois team. Florida, with losses to only LSU and Georgia, would probably have the biggest gripe at being left out of this format, but oh well. The argument would still be the same as it is now. The Gators had a shot to win the SEC East with one loss, but they fell to Georgia by a touchdown. Simply put, had Florida won that game, it would replace Georgia in this format. The Gators just didn't get the job done.
Eight-team playoff: three wild cards
In this format, the G5 champ will often get left out, which obviously will draw some critics. But on the flip side, this could be the format that gets the "best" conferences' champs in, plus the "best" at-large teams, as determined by the CFP committee. Let's take a look at how this bracket would look:
No. 1 LSU vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (wild card)
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 5 Georgia (wild card)
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 6 Oregon
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Baylor (wild card)
First four out: Florida, Penn State, Utah, Auburn
The only difference between this format and the first one is Wisconsin gets in as a third wild card, booting out Memphis. Wisconsin already proved it isn't elite, with two double-digit losses to OSU, with the second loss coming in the Big Ten title game with the Badgers up 14-0. They had their shot and blew it. To me, this format isn't that exciting since we probably know what to expect in LSU-Wisconsin, and the little guy doesn't get its shot. Would Memphis beat LSU? Not likely, but the specter of what could be makes that matchup more exciting and seems more fair since I like the idea of giving the best G5 team an opportunity.
16-team playoff: 10 champs, six wild cards
There are obviously several ways to set up these tournaments. With 16 teams, though, I say give every conference champ a reward for winning a league, no matter how small the chances are they actually advance. Plus, there are still six wild cards, so any P5 team worth its salt can still get in. Let's take a look at this bracket:
No. 1 LSU (SEC, 13-0) vs. No. 16 Miami, Ohio (MAC, 8-5)
No. 8 Wisconsin (wild card, 10-3) vs. No. 9 Florida (wild card, 10-2)
No. 4 Oklahoma (Big 12, 12-1) vs. No. 13 Boise State (Mountain West, 12-1)
No. 5 Georgia (wild card, 11-2) vs. No. 12 Memphis (AAC, 12-1)
No. 6 Oregon (Pac-12, 11-2) vs. No. 11 Utah (wild card, 11-2)
No. 3 Clemson (ACC, 13-0) vs. No. 14 Appalachian State (Sun Belt, 12-1)
No. 7 Baylor (wild card, 11-2) vs. No. 10 Penn State (wild card, 10-2)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten, 13-0) vs. No. 15 Florida Atlantic (CUSA, 10-3)
First four out: Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame
An unfortunate thing that jumps out to me here is a second straight matchup between Utah and Oregon after they just played in the Pac-12 championship. Not sure how that would go over, and the first meeting wasn't even a good game, but LSU and Alabama did meet in the BCS championship in 2012 after facing each other in a low-scoring regular-season game. But outside of that, there are some juicy matchups. Oklahoma vs. Boise would rekindle memories of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl when the Broncos upset the Sooners in one of the best college football games in history. Memphis-Georgia is a
Finally, there's Alabama, and they are not even the first team out of the playoff. It shows you how far the Crimson Tide fell this year (still, just two losses) for them to not even be in this type of 16-team playoff. Now, of course, another possible setup would be to just put all of the top 16 from the CFP rankings in the playoff. In that scenario, the best G5 team is left out in favor of a slew of two- and even three-loss P5 squads. However, it would create some interesting matchups. Alabama would be the No. 13 seed, which means it would face No. 4 Oklahoma in the first round. Despite Alabama's dip this season, do you think the Sooners would really enjoy facing the Tide in the first round? Didn't think so.
How many teams in these expanded playoffs would have legitimate shots at winning the title? Probably not many, but would anyone want to go up against Georgia in the playoff? Florida? Penn State or Alabama? Probably not. Critics like to say the playoff as it is presently built crowns the best team. That may be, but in professional sports, teams are allowed to go on miraculous runs and win titles, and this also can happen in the NCAA tournament. But you don't hear many people complaining and saying, well, the No. 6 seed from the AFC that won the Super Bowl, it wasn't the best team all season. Instead, you usually see stories about how such a team turned it on at the right time and was the best team when it counted. Do I think Eli Manning and the Giants, especially in 2011, got lucky? Yes. But no one can take those two Lombardi Trophies from Eli, and they are propelling him to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He played his best football at the right times.
Expanded playoffs would also just be more fun, and more would be on the line. Instead of, for instance, Virginia and Florida playing in a one-off Orange Bowl, what if the winner advanced into the second round? UVa fans, can you imagine the Wahoos not only pulling off the upset and downing the Gators, but ADVANCING in the playoffs? How cool would that be?
There's also so much money in college athletics, that it has to be a factor in expansion. I think it will happen someday. Once it does, it'll be interesting to see the format that is selected.
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