Capital One Orange Bowl in Miami
No. 24 Virginia (9-4) vs. No. 9 Florida (10-2), 8 p.m. ESPN
The Wahoos are going for only their second 10-win season in program history tonight in the program's first Orange Bowl, but they have to knock off the big, bad Florida Gators to get to that milestone.
On the other sideline, Florida is going for its first 11-victory campaign since 2012 and its first back-to-back double-digit win seasons since 2008-09. Last year, the Gators went 10-3 in coach Dan Mullen's first season as he improved them all the way from a 4-7 mark in 2017. They destroyed Michigan, 41-15, in the Peach Bowl. Mullen coached Mississippi State for nine years before moving to Gainesville. It isn't easy to win in Starkville, but Mullen was able to have seven winning seasons with the Bulldogs, went 5-2 in bowls, and recorded one 10-win and two nine-win seasons. He also mentored a star quarterback named Dak Prescott, who is set to get paid a lot of money in the NFL by
either the Cowboys or another team.
Florida was very solid all season. Its only losses came against LSU in a competitive 42-28 game, and Georgia, 24-17. LSU is in the national championship after obliterating Oklahoma on Saturday, and Georgia finished No. 5 in the playoff rankings. UVa was able to knock off Florida's SEC East rival, South Carolina, in the Belk Bowl last season, 28-0, but taking down these Gators will be tougher than defeating those Gamecocks was.
The Gators began the season in shaky fashion, getting past Miami, 24-20. The Hurricanes ended up being very mediocre and their 17-9 win against Virginia represents the Cavaliers' worst loss in 2019. Perhaps that performance by Florida can give UVa faithful some hope.
Florida starting QB Feleipe Franks broke his ankle in the third game of the season against Kentucky, and the Gators actually got better. QB Kyle Trask entered with the team down 11, and he rallied the Gators to a 29-21 victory over the Wildcats. On the season, Trask has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,636 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just six picks. He's gotten good protection, only getting sacked 21 times. He is not a big threat to run. Backup true freshman QB Emory Jones, a one-time Ohio State pledge, is more of a running QB. He has seen some time this year, and some analysts think he could be Florida's QB next year despite the job Trask has done. At the beginning of December, a healthy Franks said he would explore his NFL draft options or transfer.
After that win over Kentucky, every other Florida victory came by at least 11, with two falling right at that mark (Auburn, South Carolina), while the Gators blew out Tennessee, Towson, Vanderbilt,
Missouri, and Florida State. FSU was the one opponent they had in common with UVa. Florida downed FSU, 40-17, while Virginia won, 31-24.
The Gators are led in receiving by a tight end, Kyle Pitts, who has 51 catches for 610 yards and five TDs. Wideout Van Jefferson has recorded 43 catches for 528 yards and six scores, while wideout Freddie Swain has tallied the most TDs, seven, to go along with 35 receptions and 496 yards. They all average at least 12 yards per catch. The Gators' passing offense is pretty prolific, ranking 16th in the nation (UVa 36th). Mullen is known for his offensive mind.
Florida's rushing offense hasn't been as effective, actually ranking worse than Virginia's (119th vs. 113th). Of course, that is probably because Bryce Perkins is a running QB while Trask is not, so he has helped to inflate the Cavaliers' numbers a bit. The Gators' leading rusher is Lamical Perrine, who has posted 538 yards (4.5 ypc) and four scores. Dameon Pierce has 271 yards (5.6 ypc) and four TDs. Jones has ran for 224 yards (5.9 ypc) and four touchdowns.
Slowing the Florida attack was already going to be a major challenge and got tougher Sunday morning when Mendenhall announced that linebacker Jordan Mack is out for the game after having ankle surgery. Mack led the Cavaliers with 7.5 sacks and was third with 69 tackles. More importantly, he’s a senior leader and always in the right spot and has outstanding speed. He will he missed at UVa. True freshman Nick Jackson is his primary backup. Jackson has played in every game and has 24 tackles, one tackle for a loss, and a half-sack.
Florida's defense is all-around stout. The Gators rank 17th against the pass (UVa 67th), 11th against the run (UVa 31st), and fourth in sacks with 46 (3.83 per game; UVa is seventh with 45 and 3.46 per game). Linebacker Jonathan Greenard leads the unit with 8.5 sacks. The Gators are 33rd in turnover margin at +5 (UVa is 85th at -3). Donovan Stiner paces them with four interceptions, while fellow defensive backfield mates Marco Wilson and Shawn Davis have three each. Shutdown corner C.J. Henderson is the one notable Gator who has decided to skip this bowl game and prepare for the NFL draft. Those decisions worked in favor of the 'Hoos last season when a few Gamecocks didn't play in Charlotte, but it doesn't look like they'll be getting that lucky again.
It's no surprise, but it's likely going to take a truly special performance from Perkins for UVa to pull off this upset. Florida is a 14.5-point favorite. Last year in the Belk Bowl, South Carolina was a four-point favorite at kickoff, so while that felt like an upset, this would be bigger -- not to mention the other implications that would come along with an Orange Bowl victory. After getting crushed by Clemson, Virginia has another real shot to make a statement going into 2020 -- that it is a program to
be reckoned with. No one around the country is going to remember the Cavaliers if they get blown out, but if they can do this and pull off the upset, or at least make it an exciting game, they could turn some heads. This would also go down as perhaps the best season in program history if the 'Hoos win (not best TEAM necessarily, but best SEASON).
Like the ACC championship, I hope the guys just go out there and have fun and throw caution to the wind. I think they attacked that game with the right attitude, it just didn't work out. Florida is clearly a step down from Clemson, but a monumental challenge nevertheless.
I remember Bronco Mendenhall saying after the North Carolina game that it was the first time the players just played as hard as they could and "surrendered the outcome." In other words, they didn't worry about the scoreboard, they just gave maximum effort and let the chips fall. Like Tony Bennett and the basketball team, Mendenhall just wants his players to maximize their talents and get every ounce out of them he can. If UVa plays its best game, it might still fall short, but I fully believe the Cavaliers are good enough to win. It's all about reaching for that ceiling.
But the reality is the Gators have the edge in almost every category, not to mention this will function almost like a road game, with likely a lot more Florida fans in the stands than UVa fans. It will take a mistake or two and an uninspired performance from the Gators -- plus a very good game from the Cavaliers -- to make this close. If we can get that combination, we might have something cooking in the fourth quarter. I think a more likely scenario could be like this year's Notre Dame game, where Virginia surprises Florida early, but the Gators take over in the second half. All it takes is belief and a reasonable margin, and the 'Hoos could have a chance come the fourth quarter. But the only drama left at the end of the game could be whether UVa can cover the spread.
Florida 34, Virginia 20
Today's other ACC bowl game
Music City Bowl in Nashville
Louisville (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (6-6), 4 p.m. ESPN
Louisville 31, Mississippi State 28
No. 24 Virginia (9-4) vs. No. 9 Florida (10-2), 8 p.m. ESPN
The Wahoos are going for only their second 10-win season in program history tonight in the program's first Orange Bowl, but they have to knock off the big, bad Florida Gators to get to that milestone.
On the other sideline, Florida is going for its first 11-victory campaign since 2012 and its first back-to-back double-digit win seasons since 2008-09. Last year, the Gators went 10-3 in coach Dan Mullen's first season as he improved them all the way from a 4-7 mark in 2017. They destroyed Michigan, 41-15, in the Peach Bowl. Mullen coached Mississippi State for nine years before moving to Gainesville. It isn't easy to win in Starkville, but Mullen was able to have seven winning seasons with the Bulldogs, went 5-2 in bowls, and recorded one 10-win and two nine-win seasons. He also mentored a star quarterback named Dak Prescott, who is set to get paid a lot of money in the NFL by
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| Bronco Mendenhall and Dan Mullen have done a quality job rebuilding their respective programs. |
Florida was very solid all season. Its only losses came against LSU in a competitive 42-28 game, and Georgia, 24-17. LSU is in the national championship after obliterating Oklahoma on Saturday, and Georgia finished No. 5 in the playoff rankings. UVa was able to knock off Florida's SEC East rival, South Carolina, in the Belk Bowl last season, 28-0, but taking down these Gators will be tougher than defeating those Gamecocks was.
The Gators began the season in shaky fashion, getting past Miami, 24-20. The Hurricanes ended up being very mediocre and their 17-9 win against Virginia represents the Cavaliers' worst loss in 2019. Perhaps that performance by Florida can give UVa faithful some hope.
Florida starting QB Feleipe Franks broke his ankle in the third game of the season against Kentucky, and the Gators actually got better. QB Kyle Trask entered with the team down 11, and he rallied the Gators to a 29-21 victory over the Wildcats. On the season, Trask has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,636 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just six picks. He's gotten good protection, only getting sacked 21 times. He is not a big threat to run. Backup true freshman QB Emory Jones, a one-time Ohio State pledge, is more of a running QB. He has seen some time this year, and some analysts think he could be Florida's QB next year despite the job Trask has done. At the beginning of December, a healthy Franks said he would explore his NFL draft options or transfer.
After that win over Kentucky, every other Florida victory came by at least 11, with two falling right at that mark (Auburn, South Carolina), while the Gators blew out Tennessee, Towson, Vanderbilt,
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| Kyle Trask answered the bell when Florida's starting QB went down. Bryce Perkins has put together some super-human performances in some of Virginia's 2019 victories. |
The Gators are led in receiving by a tight end, Kyle Pitts, who has 51 catches for 610 yards and five TDs. Wideout Van Jefferson has recorded 43 catches for 528 yards and six scores, while wideout Freddie Swain has tallied the most TDs, seven, to go along with 35 receptions and 496 yards. They all average at least 12 yards per catch. The Gators' passing offense is pretty prolific, ranking 16th in the nation (UVa 36th). Mullen is known for his offensive mind.
Florida's rushing offense hasn't been as effective, actually ranking worse than Virginia's (119th vs. 113th). Of course, that is probably because Bryce Perkins is a running QB while Trask is not, so he has helped to inflate the Cavaliers' numbers a bit. The Gators' leading rusher is Lamical Perrine, who has posted 538 yards (4.5 ypc) and four scores. Dameon Pierce has 271 yards (5.6 ypc) and four TDs. Jones has ran for 224 yards (5.9 ypc) and four touchdowns.
Slowing the Florida attack was already going to be a major challenge and got tougher Sunday morning when Mendenhall announced that linebacker Jordan Mack is out for the game after having ankle surgery. Mack led the Cavaliers with 7.5 sacks and was third with 69 tackles. More importantly, he’s a senior leader and always in the right spot and has outstanding speed. He will he missed at UVa. True freshman Nick Jackson is his primary backup. Jackson has played in every game and has 24 tackles, one tackle for a loss, and a half-sack.
Florida's defense is all-around stout. The Gators rank 17th against the pass (UVa 67th), 11th against the run (UVa 31st), and fourth in sacks with 46 (3.83 per game; UVa is seventh with 45 and 3.46 per game). Linebacker Jonathan Greenard leads the unit with 8.5 sacks. The Gators are 33rd in turnover margin at +5 (UVa is 85th at -3). Donovan Stiner paces them with four interceptions, while fellow defensive backfield mates Marco Wilson and Shawn Davis have three each. Shutdown corner C.J. Henderson is the one notable Gator who has decided to skip this bowl game and prepare for the NFL draft. Those decisions worked in favor of the 'Hoos last season when a few Gamecocks didn't play in Charlotte, but it doesn't look like they'll be getting that lucky again.
It's no surprise, but it's likely going to take a truly special performance from Perkins for UVa to pull off this upset. Florida is a 14.5-point favorite. Last year in the Belk Bowl, South Carolina was a four-point favorite at kickoff, so while that felt like an upset, this would be bigger -- not to mention the other implications that would come along with an Orange Bowl victory. After getting crushed by Clemson, Virginia has another real shot to make a statement going into 2020 -- that it is a program to
Like the ACC championship, I hope the guys just go out there and have fun and throw caution to the wind. I think they attacked that game with the right attitude, it just didn't work out. Florida is clearly a step down from Clemson, but a monumental challenge nevertheless.
I remember Bronco Mendenhall saying after the North Carolina game that it was the first time the players just played as hard as they could and "surrendered the outcome." In other words, they didn't worry about the scoreboard, they just gave maximum effort and let the chips fall. Like Tony Bennett and the basketball team, Mendenhall just wants his players to maximize their talents and get every ounce out of them he can. If UVa plays its best game, it might still fall short, but I fully believe the Cavaliers are good enough to win. It's all about reaching for that ceiling.
But the reality is the Gators have the edge in almost every category, not to mention this will function almost like a road game, with likely a lot more Florida fans in the stands than UVa fans. It will take a mistake or two and an uninspired performance from the Gators -- plus a very good game from the Cavaliers -- to make this close. If we can get that combination, we might have something cooking in the fourth quarter. I think a more likely scenario could be like this year's Notre Dame game, where Virginia surprises Florida early, but the Gators take over in the second half. All it takes is belief and a reasonable margin, and the 'Hoos could have a chance come the fourth quarter. But the only drama left at the end of the game could be whether UVa can cover the spread.
Florida 34, Virginia 20
Today's other ACC bowl game
Music City Bowl in Nashville
Louisville (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (6-6), 4 p.m. ESPN
Louisville 31, Mississippi State 28
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