Virginia goes into hostile territory to face Purdue in ACC-Big Ten Challenge

No. 5 Virginia at Purdue, 7:15 p.m. ESPN2

Amid the football excitement, it can be easy to forget there's a big game for the basketball team tonight: Virginia at Purdue.

I think those two schools are famous for playing in a high-stakes game last season?

Mamadi Diakite and Kihei Clark return from that legendary matchup, but now there's no Carsen Edwards, no Ryan Cline, no Kyle Guy, no De'Andre Hunter, no Ty Jerome. There's not going to even be Braxton Key. The Virginia senior hurt his wrist against Arizona State on Nov. 24 and is out indefinitely. Hopefully he's back soon, but he won't play in this game.

The Cavaliers have bolted to a 7-0 start since I last wrote about them, defeating the Sun Devils, 48-45, to win their seventh straight November tournament, this year in the Air Force Reserve Tip Off. In the
semifinals of that tournament, Virginia downed Massachusetts, 58-46. The Wahoos also own wins over Columbia (60-42), Vermont (61-55), and most recently, Maine (46-26). That win over the Black Bears was ... not a pretty game, even for staunch defenders of the program. The offense has struggled all season, with that performance being the ugliest. Not having Key didn't help. He is tied for second on the team with 10.3 points per game.

As a whole, 3-point shooting continues to be poor, with Virginia floundering at 25.2 percent.

So who's left for Purdue? The Boilermakers' leading scorer is a transfer, senior guard Jahaad Proctor at 14.6 ppg. He started his career at Iona, then played two seasons at High Point before landing at Purdue. Junior center Matt Haarms (the player Diakite shot over to send last season's Elite Eight game to overtime) and sophomore guard Eric Hunter Jr. are the other scorers in double figures at 11.7 and 10.3 ppg, respectively. Purdue doesn't shoot that well from deep itself at 31 percent. Haarms shoots 37.3 percent, and sophomore guard Sasha Stefanovic leads the team at 39.3 percent.

So who has the edge? Purdue is only 4-3, with close losses to Texas (70-66), Marquette (65-55), and Florida State (63-60). Its wins have come against Green Bay (79-57), Chicago State (93-49), Jacksonville State (81-49), and then-No 20. VCU (59-56). The Rams have since lost to Tennessee and fallen out of the top 25, but that’s arguably a better win than any of Virginia’s victories. The Boilermakers are struggling in the post-Carsen Edwards era, but they will be itching to get back at the Cavaliers for what transpired last season.

I picked Purdue to win this game at the beginning of the season. Were it not for Key's injury, I think I'd revise that prediction. But with him out, it gives a tactical advantage to Purdue that it needs. UVa has only had one game without Key, the Maine victory, and it was a pretty rough outing. The energy of the vengeful home crowd will make sure the Boilermakers are pushed over the top.

Gut feeling: Purdue wins by 1-5 points.

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