Virginia at Georgia Tech, 8 p.m. ACC Network
After falling to No. 9 Florida State in somewhat heartbreaking fashion, Virginia takes a step down in competition level this weekend to face Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers have downed the Yellow Jackets in 13 of the past 15 meetings, and when looking at the schedule each season, this game has become one you can circle as an almost automatic win, though Tech did beat a good Virginia team in 2015-16 in Atlanta. But those 'Hoos had yet to really hit their stride.
Of course, this year is a different story. Nothing is coming easy these days for UVa, which has already picked up more bad losses than it is used to. Here's more on this season's Jackets:
Record: 8-9, 2-4 ACC
Coach: Josh Pastner, fourth year at Tech, 56-63; 11th year overall, 223-136
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Michael Devoe (16.5), 6-9 forward Moses Wright (13.8), 6-0 junior guard Jose Alvarado (10.4), 6-10 senior forward James Banks III (10.4)
Leading rebounders: Wright (8), Banks (7.5), Devoe (3.8), 6-7 junior forward Jordan Usher (3.6)
Assist leaders: Alvarado (5.3), Devoe (2.9)
Notable: Five other players are averaging at least 2.7 points and at least 10 minutes per game, led by Usher (8.8 ppg), a transfer from USC who was not eligible until after Tech's fall semester concluded. He's played in nine games. Alvarado (1.9), Devoe (1.4), 6-7 sophomore forward Khalid Moore (1.2), and 5-10 junior guard Bubba Parham all average at least one steal. Banks averages 2.9 blocks, and
Wright 1.2.
Best win: At N.C. State, 82-81, to open the season
Worst win: 68-65 at home over Bethune-Cookman. The Wildcats, from the MEAC (think Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, etc.) are 9-9.
Other wins: Elon, Nebraska, Boise State, Hawaii, North Carolina, Boston College
Best loss: Arkansas, 62-61, in overtime at home on a banked-in 3. The Razorbacks are 14-2.
Worst loss: Home against Syracuse, 97-63
Other losses: Georgia, Kentucky, Ball State, Houston, Florida State, Duke, Notre Dame
Common opponents with UVa: Syracuse (63-55 Virginia loss), Boston College (71-52 GT win; 60-53 Virginia loss), North Carolina (96-83 GT win; 56-47 UVa win), FSU (70-58 GT loss; 54-50 UVa loss)
What Georgia Tech does well: The Yellow Jackets' defense is pretty good, giving up 67.9 ppg (152nd), and they excel at blocked shots with 5.2 per game (25th) and give up 30.9 percent shooting from 3-point land (91st) and 39.8 percent from the field overall (62nd).
What Georgia Tech doesn't do well: It struggles on offense, scoring 67.9 ppg (300th) while shooting 44.6 from the field (135th) and just 28.9 percent beyond the arc (327th).
Last season, Virginia annihilated Georgia Tech in their only meeting, 81-51 in Charlottesville, and Pastner raved about the 'Hoos, saying they could win it all.
This season, UVa fans are just hoping for a victory, even by a point.
That's the situation we've reached, and now we are hoping Georgia Tech can offer a respite from that feeling we aren't used to -- losing. Not just one loss, but a three-game losing streak, the first since February 2017. Last year, even after losses to Duke, we knew the team would bounce back and win a ton of games. That's why I wasn't particularly nervous leading up to those huge matchups or disappointed after -- I knew Duke was a great team, and I knew the 'Hoos were great and still worthy of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Now the comforting thought that a batch of victories is on the horizon is definitely up in the air as UVa fans are seriously beginning to wonder if this team is going to be able to reach the NCAA tournament. In the latest update on ESPN.com's Bracketology, Virginia is listed as one of the first four teams out of the Big Dance. A victory Wednesday would have assuredly pushed the Cavaliers onto the right side of the bubble. A loss is a missed opportunity but doesn't really damage the resume too much because a top-10 road loss will bump up the schedule strength. The committee doesn't really punish teams for losing road games against great squads. But the losses to BC and Syracuse? Those hurt more.
Pastner's semi-prediction last season that Virginia was going to win the whole ball of wax is about the only thing he's been right about lately. The Yellow Jackets have not been very good following Pastner's NIT runner-up, ACC-coach-of-the-year campaign in 2016-17, his inaugural year in Atlanta. They have gone 6-12 in the conference each of the past two seasons. This is as good a time as any for the Cavaliers to try to get back on track.
But Georgia Tech does offer some problems. Its defense is fairly stout. Also, it has a win at N.C. State, which might be better than any victory UVa has on its resume, nearly knocked off 14-2 Arkansas, defeated BC by 19, and played Duke to within single digits. I'm ready to be surprised, but
to me, that doesn't sound like a team that UVa is going to be able to blow out.
On the other hand, the Jackets have also lost to Syracuse by 34, fallen to Ball State by 18, barely edged Bethune-Cookman, and they didn't have a chance down the stretch to beat FSU, like UVa did. Last time out, Georgia Tech lost to Notre Dame at home, 78-74, on Wednesday. The Fighting Irish are just 11-6 and 2-4 in the ACC after that win, so that wasn't any sort of morale-boosting "good loss" for the Jackets.
And just a couple of weeks ago, Virginia easily handled a Virginia Tech team that is otherwise quite hot and defying expectations after being picked to land in the cellar of the conference. In an unpredictable season for the ACC and college basketball, the Cavaliers are right there in the madness. Had the Wahoos held on against the Seminoles, it would've fit right in with other zany results this week: Clemson toppling No. 3 Duke, Alabama handing No. 4 Auburn its first loss, South Carolina edging No. 10 Kentucky on a 3 at the buzzer, and Tony Bennett's old team, Washington State, defeating No. 8 Oregon by 11.
That is to say, we will just have to sit back and see which teams show up Saturday in Atlanta. It's a cop out to say that, but also totally true. Georgia Tech and Virginia are both capable of winning. The Cavaliers have been more consistent, and I give Bennett the coaching edge by a large margin over Pastner, but they can't close out games right now and winning on the road is hard and not to be something taken for granted. Virginia has made it look easy the past several years, but that isn't the norm.
Generally, given Georgia Tech's poor offense, especially 3-point shooting, Virginia would be the pick even with the Jackets' defense being solid. Of course, that doesn't matter much this year because the Wahoos' offense is right there in the bottom of the barrel, especially when it comes to 3-point shooting. And it's hard to predict that this will be a game in which Virginia can shoot better than normal, given Tech's ability to guard the 3-point line. The problem is, Banks and Wright are strong defenders inside, so it's fair to wonder how Virginia is going to score at all. Aggressively getting to the hoop could be a bit tougher than it was at times against FSU.
Usually, very good 3-point shooting is a requirement to top Virginia, but not this season. Boston College is shooting 29.2 percent from beyond the arc and made only four against UVa, but the Cavaliers just made three in that loss. The Yellow Jackets' best snipers are Devoe (41.2 percent), Parham (34), and Alvarado (31.1). Virginia has won five straight in the series, holding Georgia Tech below 55 points during that streak. But getting to 55 is no guarantee for the Wahoos, that's for sure.
UVa (26.6 percent) now ranks above just four teams in 3-point shooting: Old Dominion, Texas A&M, Jackson State, and Maryland-Eastern Shore. The coach at A&M is former Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams. It's hilarious to me that both the Cavaliers and Hokies were awesome at shooting from long range last season, and now Bennett's and Buzz's teams are almost the worst. Kihei Clark is Virginia's best 3-point shooter (39.3 percent), Mamadi Diakite, who was above 50 percent earlier in the year, sits at 38.7 percent now and has made just 2 of his past 11. Jay Huff comes in third at just 31.6 percent, and he's also cold, 1 for his last 5, but really, he hasn't been shooting much at all. Huff hasn't attempted a 3 since the BC game and has tried 19 all year. Braxton Key is at 22.2 percent, and Kody Stattmann and Casey Morsell are both below 20 percent.
I still believe this team is good enough to go on a run, and like BC, Georgia Tech just still feels like a squad the Cavaliers should still defeat, no questions asked, despite the negative cloud hanging around the program right now. I'm taking UVa in a close battle.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
After falling to No. 9 Florida State in somewhat heartbreaking fashion, Virginia takes a step down in competition level this weekend to face Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers have downed the Yellow Jackets in 13 of the past 15 meetings, and when looking at the schedule each season, this game has become one you can circle as an almost automatic win, though Tech did beat a good Virginia team in 2015-16 in Atlanta. But those 'Hoos had yet to really hit their stride.
Of course, this year is a different story. Nothing is coming easy these days for UVa, which has already picked up more bad losses than it is used to. Here's more on this season's Jackets:
Record: 8-9, 2-4 ACC
Coach: Josh Pastner, fourth year at Tech, 56-63; 11th year overall, 223-136
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Michael Devoe (16.5), 6-9 forward Moses Wright (13.8), 6-0 junior guard Jose Alvarado (10.4), 6-10 senior forward James Banks III (10.4)
Leading rebounders: Wright (8), Banks (7.5), Devoe (3.8), 6-7 junior forward Jordan Usher (3.6)
Assist leaders: Alvarado (5.3), Devoe (2.9)
Notable: Five other players are averaging at least 2.7 points and at least 10 minutes per game, led by Usher (8.8 ppg), a transfer from USC who was not eligible until after Tech's fall semester concluded. He's played in nine games. Alvarado (1.9), Devoe (1.4), 6-7 sophomore forward Khalid Moore (1.2), and 5-10 junior guard Bubba Parham all average at least one steal. Banks averages 2.9 blocks, and
Best win: At N.C. State, 82-81, to open the season
Worst win: 68-65 at home over Bethune-Cookman. The Wildcats, from the MEAC (think Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, etc.) are 9-9.
Other wins: Elon, Nebraska, Boise State, Hawaii, North Carolina, Boston College
Best loss: Arkansas, 62-61, in overtime at home on a banked-in 3. The Razorbacks are 14-2.
Worst loss: Home against Syracuse, 97-63
Other losses: Georgia, Kentucky, Ball State, Houston, Florida State, Duke, Notre Dame
Common opponents with UVa: Syracuse (63-55 Virginia loss), Boston College (71-52 GT win; 60-53 Virginia loss), North Carolina (96-83 GT win; 56-47 UVa win), FSU (70-58 GT loss; 54-50 UVa loss)
What Georgia Tech does well: The Yellow Jackets' defense is pretty good, giving up 67.9 ppg (152nd), and they excel at blocked shots with 5.2 per game (25th) and give up 30.9 percent shooting from 3-point land (91st) and 39.8 percent from the field overall (62nd).
What Georgia Tech doesn't do well: It struggles on offense, scoring 67.9 ppg (300th) while shooting 44.6 from the field (135th) and just 28.9 percent beyond the arc (327th).
Last season, Virginia annihilated Georgia Tech in their only meeting, 81-51 in Charlottesville, and Pastner raved about the 'Hoos, saying they could win it all.
This season, UVa fans are just hoping for a victory, even by a point.
That's the situation we've reached, and now we are hoping Georgia Tech can offer a respite from that feeling we aren't used to -- losing. Not just one loss, but a three-game losing streak, the first since February 2017. Last year, even after losses to Duke, we knew the team would bounce back and win a ton of games. That's why I wasn't particularly nervous leading up to those huge matchups or disappointed after -- I knew Duke was a great team, and I knew the 'Hoos were great and still worthy of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Now the comforting thought that a batch of victories is on the horizon is definitely up in the air as UVa fans are seriously beginning to wonder if this team is going to be able to reach the NCAA tournament. In the latest update on ESPN.com's Bracketology, Virginia is listed as one of the first four teams out of the Big Dance. A victory Wednesday would have assuredly pushed the Cavaliers onto the right side of the bubble. A loss is a missed opportunity but doesn't really damage the resume too much because a top-10 road loss will bump up the schedule strength. The committee doesn't really punish teams for losing road games against great squads. But the losses to BC and Syracuse? Those hurt more.
Pastner's semi-prediction last season that Virginia was going to win the whole ball of wax is about the only thing he's been right about lately. The Yellow Jackets have not been very good following Pastner's NIT runner-up, ACC-coach-of-the-year campaign in 2016-17, his inaugural year in Atlanta. They have gone 6-12 in the conference each of the past two seasons. This is as good a time as any for the Cavaliers to try to get back on track.
But Georgia Tech does offer some problems. Its defense is fairly stout. Also, it has a win at N.C. State, which might be better than any victory UVa has on its resume, nearly knocked off 14-2 Arkansas, defeated BC by 19, and played Duke to within single digits. I'm ready to be surprised, but
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| Braxton Key and Tony Bennett show their frustration during the FSU loss. |
On the other hand, the Jackets have also lost to Syracuse by 34, fallen to Ball State by 18, barely edged Bethune-Cookman, and they didn't have a chance down the stretch to beat FSU, like UVa did. Last time out, Georgia Tech lost to Notre Dame at home, 78-74, on Wednesday. The Fighting Irish are just 11-6 and 2-4 in the ACC after that win, so that wasn't any sort of morale-boosting "good loss" for the Jackets.
And just a couple of weeks ago, Virginia easily handled a Virginia Tech team that is otherwise quite hot and defying expectations after being picked to land in the cellar of the conference. In an unpredictable season for the ACC and college basketball, the Cavaliers are right there in the madness. Had the Wahoos held on against the Seminoles, it would've fit right in with other zany results this week: Clemson toppling No. 3 Duke, Alabama handing No. 4 Auburn its first loss, South Carolina edging No. 10 Kentucky on a 3 at the buzzer, and Tony Bennett's old team, Washington State, defeating No. 8 Oregon by 11.
That is to say, we will just have to sit back and see which teams show up Saturday in Atlanta. It's a cop out to say that, but also totally true. Georgia Tech and Virginia are both capable of winning. The Cavaliers have been more consistent, and I give Bennett the coaching edge by a large margin over Pastner, but they can't close out games right now and winning on the road is hard and not to be something taken for granted. Virginia has made it look easy the past several years, but that isn't the norm.
Generally, given Georgia Tech's poor offense, especially 3-point shooting, Virginia would be the pick even with the Jackets' defense being solid. Of course, that doesn't matter much this year because the Wahoos' offense is right there in the bottom of the barrel, especially when it comes to 3-point shooting. And it's hard to predict that this will be a game in which Virginia can shoot better than normal, given Tech's ability to guard the 3-point line. The problem is, Banks and Wright are strong defenders inside, so it's fair to wonder how Virginia is going to score at all. Aggressively getting to the hoop could be a bit tougher than it was at times against FSU.
Usually, very good 3-point shooting is a requirement to top Virginia, but not this season. Boston College is shooting 29.2 percent from beyond the arc and made only four against UVa, but the Cavaliers just made three in that loss. The Yellow Jackets' best snipers are Devoe (41.2 percent), Parham (34), and Alvarado (31.1). Virginia has won five straight in the series, holding Georgia Tech below 55 points during that streak. But getting to 55 is no guarantee for the Wahoos, that's for sure.
UVa (26.6 percent) now ranks above just four teams in 3-point shooting: Old Dominion, Texas A&M, Jackson State, and Maryland-Eastern Shore. The coach at A&M is former Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams. It's hilarious to me that both the Cavaliers and Hokies were awesome at shooting from long range last season, and now Bennett's and Buzz's teams are almost the worst. Kihei Clark is Virginia's best 3-point shooter (39.3 percent), Mamadi Diakite, who was above 50 percent earlier in the year, sits at 38.7 percent now and has made just 2 of his past 11. Jay Huff comes in third at just 31.6 percent, and he's also cold, 1 for his last 5, but really, he hasn't been shooting much at all. Huff hasn't attempted a 3 since the BC game and has tried 19 all year. Braxton Key is at 22.2 percent, and Kody Stattmann and Casey Morsell are both below 20 percent.
I still believe this team is good enough to go on a run, and like BC, Georgia Tech just still feels like a squad the Cavaliers should still defeat, no questions asked, despite the negative cloud hanging around the program right now. I'm taking UVa in a close battle.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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