Virginia at Wake Forest, Noon, ACC Network
Nobody probably needed a week off quite like the Cavaliers. The N.C. State game marked their third in six days. A bunch of players desperately searching for offense, trying to break through and get over the hump in some close games were probably a little tired come the end of Monday's contest.
It's mentally and physically exhausting to lose tight games, and every ACC loss has come in pretty painstaking fashion. But the Wahoos have had a chance to take a breath and regroup, and now they go to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest, a team that continues to struggle in Danny Manning's sixth year. Here's more on this year's Demon Deacons:
Record: 9-9, 2-6
Coach: Danny Manning, sixth year at Wake, 73-102; eighth year overall, 112-132
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot senior guard Brandon Childress (15.2), 6-5 junior guard Chaundee Brown (13.3), 7-0 center Olivier Sarr (13)
Leading rebounders: Sarr (9.5), Brown (6.5), 6-9 freshman forward Ody Oguama (4.3), 6-8 sophomore forward Isaiah Mucius (4.3)
Assist leaders: Childress (4.7), 6-3 senior guard Adrien White (1.6), Brown (1.6)
Notable: It is unclear if Brown will play. He's been out five straight games with a lower-leg injury.
It's a big deal if he's out, though the Demon Deacons did blow out Boston College without him. Five
other players average at least 4.2 points and Wake goes pretty deep this season with playing time, with 10 players averaging double-figure minutes. Childress (1.2) and White (0.8) each average about one steal, and Sarr and Oguama average about one block each.
Best win: At Pittsburgh, 69-65, on Jan. 4
Worst win: Columbia at home, 65-63, in November
Other wins: UNC Asheville, Davidson, College of Charleston, Long Beach State, Xavier, North Carolina A&T, Boston College (home)
Best loss: No. 14 Arizona, 73-66, in the Wooden Legacy finals in Los Angeles. The Wildcats are 13-5 and ranked No. 22 now.
Worst loss: At Charlotte, 67-65; the 49ers are 11-7 and coached by former Virginia assistant Ron Sanchez.
Other losses: Boston College (road), Penn State, N.C. State, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Duke, Clemson
Common opponents with UVa: BC (Wake 77-70 loss and 80-62 win; UVa 60-53 loss); Columbia (Wake win mentioned above; UVa 60-42 win); N.C. State (Wake 91-82 loss; UVa 53-51 loss); Florida State (Wake 78-68 loss; UVa 54-50 loss); Virginia Tech (Wake 80-70 loss; UVa 65-39 win)
What Wake does well: The Deacons make 73.8 percent of their free throws (74th best in the nation). They also rebound pretty well, with an average margin of +3 per game (84th).
What Wake doesn't do well: Defense. The Deacons give up 73.1 ppg (268th) and a field goal percentage of 44.1 (252nd).
All UVa needed to do to turn its four ACC losses into wins was score 55 points in regulation. Fifty-five, that's it. And Virginia has scored at least 56 in three of its four conference victories, with the opener at Syracuse (48) being the only exception. In two, it has scored at least 63. The Demon Deacons represent a good chance for the Cavaliers to reach the 55-56 mark or higher. In addition to the categories I've already mentioned, Wake also isn't that strong at 3-point defense, allowing opponents to make 33 percent of their tries (191st).
If UVa can reach that lofty offensive goal (ha), then it could be up to the defense to do the rest. I think Brown will play, but I haven't seen anything definitive. If he can't go again, then Virginia's defensive task is much easier. Wake doesn't shoot 3s that well, but also isn't atrociously bad like the Cavaliers, coming in at 34.1 percent (138th). Virginia comes in at 26.8 percent (345th). Brown is Wake's second-best 3-point shooter of the players who play major minutes at 34.6 percent. White leads at 40 percent, and Childress is a viable shooter as well (32.2 percent). Freshman 6-8 forward Ismael Massoud (37.5 percent, 11.3 minutes per game) and 6-3 freshman guard Jahcobi Neath (45.5 percent, 16.2 mpg) don't play a lot, and in Neath's case, he's tried only 11 3s, making five.
A noon tip-off on a Sunday should make for a relatively mild and sleepy crowd, so I don't think UVa is walking into a very hostile environment, and Wake has been pretty bad now for a few years. I also think the shine has worn off a bit for teams when they beat defending national champion Virginia, so I'm not sure that's a big draw for crowds. And let's face it, this edition of UVa isn't that exciting to watch. Beating or barely losing to the Wahoos last season often resulted in a really good game, but this year, not so much.
Brown might not play, and if he does, he may not be 100 percent. The Demon Deacons' defense is weak. Those factors, plus the extra time off for the Cavaliers, leads me to pick Virginia, which is a 4.5-point favorite, to get a much-needed ACC road win.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
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