No. 7 Duke at Virginia, 6 p.m. ESPN
The Cavaliers welcome the Blue Devils to John Paul Jones Arena tonight for undoubtedly one of the most hyped games of the season. It's always special to beat Duke, and it is the one program Virginia does not have a winning record against since Tony Bennett took over the reins in Charlottesville.
What's more, UVa has reached the 20-win barrier, often seen as the mark you have to get to as a major conference team to be certain of looking like a viable NCAA tournament at-large berth candidate. But certain facets of UVa's resume aren't valued that highly, and certain metrics don't like the Cavaliers all that much. It's certainly possible Virginia could lose out and still make the Big Dance, but it isn't advisable. The 2012-13 team won 21 games in the regular season, beat Duke, and didn't make the tourney. A 21st victory this year, though, looks like a better way to lock up a bid regardless of what the team does against Miami and Louisville to close out the regular season and in the ACC tournament. With this looking like one of the weaker NCAA tournament fields, a victory over a top-10 Duke team for a 21st win would be the ultimate statement to the committee: Pay attention to the defending champions.
As usual, this Duke team is terrific with Mike Krzyzewski bringing in his usual crop of freshman stars into the fold. The Devils own some very good wins and are viewed right now as a No. 2 seed in the dance. But they've also stumbled a few times against questionable foes and have also struggled on the road recently. Here's more on the 2019-20 edition of Duke:
Record: 23-5, 13-4
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-10 freshman center Vernon Carey Jr. (17.6), 6-3 sophomore guard Tre Jones (16.1), 6-6 freshman guard Cassius Stanley (12.4), 6-9 freshman forward Matthew Hurt (10.5)
Leading rebounders: Carey (8.8), Stanley (4.8), Jones (4.3), 6-6 freshman forward Wendell Moore Jr. (4.2), Hurt (4), 6-10 senior forward Javin DeLaurier (3.6)
Assist leaders: Jones (6.5), 6-2 junior guard Jordan Goldwire (2.2), Moore (2)
Notable: Ten players average double-figure minutes, and the six players outside of the top four average between 3.3 and 7.7 points. Jones collects 1.7 steals per game, Goldwire gets 1.5, and Moore 1. Carey averages 1.5 blocks.
Best win: The Blue Devils' season-opening win on a neutral court over No. 3 Kansas, 68-66, has aged well. The Jayhawks are 25-3 and ranked No. 1 in the country.
Worst win: I mean, even though it is a rivalry, you almost have to go with the victory over North Carolina, right? The Devils trailed for a lot of the game and needed a miracle to get into overtime and
then win it as well. The Tar Heels are 11-17.
Other wins: Colorado State, Central Arkansas, Georgia State, Cal, Georgetown, Winthrop, Michigan State, Virginia Tech (home and away), Wofford, Brown, Boston College (home and away), Miami (home and away), Wake Forest (home), Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Florida State, Notre Dame
Best loss: By process of elimination, it has to be the home loss to No. 11 Louisville, 79-73
Worst loss: The Blue Devils had a historical 85-83 overtime loss to Stephen F. Austin as an almost 30-point favorite at home, but you could make the argument that it wasn't as bad a loss as the one that just happened Tuesday at Wake Forest, 113-101 in overtime. The Lumberjacks are 25-3, and I doubt any major conference team would be eager to play them in March. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are just 12-15 and not going anywhere.
Other losses: Clemson, N.C. State
What Duke does well: Offense and rebounding. The Blue Devils score 83.3 points per game (second nationally) and shoot 47.5 percent from the field (18th) and 35.1 percent from beyond the arc (84th). On the glass, they own a +5 rebounds per game margin (30th).
What Duke doesn't do well: The defense has been spotty at times. The Devils are giving up 68.2 points per game (141st) and allowing opponents to shoot 41.7 percent from the field (113th). They also foul a lot, having totaled 506 (tied-206th).
So does Virginia have enough to take down this version of Duke? Of course. UVa is better than the Duke that has stubbed its toe a few times this season against the likes of Clemson and Wake Forest. But Duke is supremely talented once again, just young, which probably contributes to the ups and downs. Which team shows up? After getting blown out of the gym by N.C. State, Duke unleashed its wrath on Virginia Tech, but that game was at Cameron. Over the years, though, it does seem like Duke is always a team that responds to losses well. I expect a pretty focused Blue Devils squad. And though they had to go to overtime at Wake and maybe had to expend more energy than UVa did at Tech, that game was played Tuesday, so the Blue Devils got one more day of rest than the 'Hoos.
Carey hasn't gotten quite the accolades Zion Williamson did, but he's been very effective. He's more of a low post threat and less of a high-flyer than Zion. Trying to limit him will be key, and hopefully Mamadi Diakite, Jay Huff, and Francisco Caffaro can stay out of foul trouble when guarding the big man. This could be a contest where Virginia uses up its fouls, and could maybe even be wise to do so. Carey shoots 64.9 percent at the line. But maybe the Cavaliers also can get Carey in foul trouble.
Duke likes to play an aggressive man-to-man defense like Florida State, which could create driving opportunities. Kihei Clark was able to take advantage of those lanes against the Seminoles. If he can do that again, maybe he could draw some fouls on the Devils. Guarding Clark will be Jones, who is known as one of the sport's better defenders. Of course, Clark isn't too shabby either.
Duke's top deep shooters are 6-7 sophomore forward Joey Baker (41.2 percent), Hurt (40.4), Stanley (37.8), Goldwire (37.2, but on only 43 attempts), 6-7 senior forward Jack White (34), and Jones (33.3). Plus, Carey will step out and shoot. He has only 19 attempts on the year, but he's made seven (36.8). Duke doesn't take many 3s, with 564, which ranks in a tie for 230th nationally.
If the game is close, and well, with UVa, we know that's a good bet, the Blue Devils haven't been great at the line, shooting just 70.7 percent (180th). But they get there a lot, taking 22 free throws per game (37th).
As I alluded to earlier, Krzyzewski is the one coach Bennett hasn't been able to consistently figure out. The Blue Devils took two games from the 'Hoos last season in blockbuster top-five matchups, winning by two in Durham and 10 in Charlottesville. Duke has won five of the past six meetings, with the lone win in that span being the Cavaliers' 65-63 victory at Cameron in the 2017-18 season, their first in that arena since 1995.
Does Duke rebound from its bad loss to the Demon Deacons? Or do the Cavaliers have what it takes to play a full 40 minutes of some of their best basketball of the year and pull out a big, potentially NCAA tournament berth-solidifying win? Certainly, momentum is on UVa's side, having won eight of its past nine games and five in a row. The Blue Devils haven't dominated a team on the road since crushing Miami, 95-63, way back on Jan. 4. Since then, away from Cameron, Duke has four single-digit wins (Georgia Tech, Syracuse, BC, North Carolina) and three losses (Clemson, N.C. State, Wake).
My head tells me these Blue Devils are just too good for these Cavaliers, who haven't blown many teams out. But my head also tells me UVa hasn't gotten blown out this year, and the odds are in its favor that won't happen tonight. If the 'Hoos can stick around till the end, maybe their late-game prowess can take over. They don't need to play an absurdly good offensive game to win, I don't think, but getting into the 60s is probably necessary, maybe 65. But this Duke team doesn't have the firepower of last year's, and UVa's improved offense might be able to get going a bit against a defense that has given up some points. It took two weird games for Duke to beat Virginia last season: one in which the Cavaliers shot way below their average on 3s and one in which the Devils shot way above their average on 3s. I'm going to predict it's time for things to fall UVa's way in this series.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
The Cavaliers welcome the Blue Devils to John Paul Jones Arena tonight for undoubtedly one of the most hyped games of the season. It's always special to beat Duke, and it is the one program Virginia does not have a winning record against since Tony Bennett took over the reins in Charlottesville.
What's more, UVa has reached the 20-win barrier, often seen as the mark you have to get to as a major conference team to be certain of looking like a viable NCAA tournament at-large berth candidate. But certain facets of UVa's resume aren't valued that highly, and certain metrics don't like the Cavaliers all that much. It's certainly possible Virginia could lose out and still make the Big Dance, but it isn't advisable. The 2012-13 team won 21 games in the regular season, beat Duke, and didn't make the tourney. A 21st victory this year, though, looks like a better way to lock up a bid regardless of what the team does against Miami and Louisville to close out the regular season and in the ACC tournament. With this looking like one of the weaker NCAA tournament fields, a victory over a top-10 Duke team for a 21st win would be the ultimate statement to the committee: Pay attention to the defending champions.
As usual, this Duke team is terrific with Mike Krzyzewski bringing in his usual crop of freshman stars into the fold. The Devils own some very good wins and are viewed right now as a No. 2 seed in the dance. But they've also stumbled a few times against questionable foes and have also struggled on the road recently. Here's more on the 2019-20 edition of Duke:
Record: 23-5, 13-4
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-10 freshman center Vernon Carey Jr. (17.6), 6-3 sophomore guard Tre Jones (16.1), 6-6 freshman guard Cassius Stanley (12.4), 6-9 freshman forward Matthew Hurt (10.5)
Leading rebounders: Carey (8.8), Stanley (4.8), Jones (4.3), 6-6 freshman forward Wendell Moore Jr. (4.2), Hurt (4), 6-10 senior forward Javin DeLaurier (3.6)
Assist leaders: Jones (6.5), 6-2 junior guard Jordan Goldwire (2.2), Moore (2)
Notable: Ten players average double-figure minutes, and the six players outside of the top four average between 3.3 and 7.7 points. Jones collects 1.7 steals per game, Goldwire gets 1.5, and Moore 1. Carey averages 1.5 blocks.
Best win: The Blue Devils' season-opening win on a neutral court over No. 3 Kansas, 68-66, has aged well. The Jayhawks are 25-3 and ranked No. 1 in the country.
Worst win: I mean, even though it is a rivalry, you almost have to go with the victory over North Carolina, right? The Devils trailed for a lot of the game and needed a miracle to get into overtime and
Other wins: Colorado State, Central Arkansas, Georgia State, Cal, Georgetown, Winthrop, Michigan State, Virginia Tech (home and away), Wofford, Brown, Boston College (home and away), Miami (home and away), Wake Forest (home), Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Florida State, Notre Dame
Best loss: By process of elimination, it has to be the home loss to No. 11 Louisville, 79-73
Worst loss: The Blue Devils had a historical 85-83 overtime loss to Stephen F. Austin as an almost 30-point favorite at home, but you could make the argument that it wasn't as bad a loss as the one that just happened Tuesday at Wake Forest, 113-101 in overtime. The Lumberjacks are 25-3, and I doubt any major conference team would be eager to play them in March. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are just 12-15 and not going anywhere.
Other losses: Clemson, N.C. State
What Duke does well: Offense and rebounding. The Blue Devils score 83.3 points per game (second nationally) and shoot 47.5 percent from the field (18th) and 35.1 percent from beyond the arc (84th). On the glass, they own a +5 rebounds per game margin (30th).
What Duke doesn't do well: The defense has been spotty at times. The Devils are giving up 68.2 points per game (141st) and allowing opponents to shoot 41.7 percent from the field (113th). They also foul a lot, having totaled 506 (tied-206th).
So does Virginia have enough to take down this version of Duke? Of course. UVa is better than the Duke that has stubbed its toe a few times this season against the likes of Clemson and Wake Forest. But Duke is supremely talented once again, just young, which probably contributes to the ups and downs. Which team shows up? After getting blown out of the gym by N.C. State, Duke unleashed its wrath on Virginia Tech, but that game was at Cameron. Over the years, though, it does seem like Duke is always a team that responds to losses well. I expect a pretty focused Blue Devils squad. And though they had to go to overtime at Wake and maybe had to expend more energy than UVa did at Tech, that game was played Tuesday, so the Blue Devils got one more day of rest than the 'Hoos.
Carey hasn't gotten quite the accolades Zion Williamson did, but he's been very effective. He's more of a low post threat and less of a high-flyer than Zion. Trying to limit him will be key, and hopefully Mamadi Diakite, Jay Huff, and Francisco Caffaro can stay out of foul trouble when guarding the big man. This could be a contest where Virginia uses up its fouls, and could maybe even be wise to do so. Carey shoots 64.9 percent at the line. But maybe the Cavaliers also can get Carey in foul trouble.
Duke likes to play an aggressive man-to-man defense like Florida State, which could create driving opportunities. Kihei Clark was able to take advantage of those lanes against the Seminoles. If he can do that again, maybe he could draw some fouls on the Devils. Guarding Clark will be Jones, who is known as one of the sport's better defenders. Of course, Clark isn't too shabby either.
Duke's top deep shooters are 6-7 sophomore forward Joey Baker (41.2 percent), Hurt (40.4), Stanley (37.8), Goldwire (37.2, but on only 43 attempts), 6-7 senior forward Jack White (34), and Jones (33.3). Plus, Carey will step out and shoot. He has only 19 attempts on the year, but he's made seven (36.8). Duke doesn't take many 3s, with 564, which ranks in a tie for 230th nationally.
If the game is close, and well, with UVa, we know that's a good bet, the Blue Devils haven't been great at the line, shooting just 70.7 percent (180th). But they get there a lot, taking 22 free throws per game (37th).
As I alluded to earlier, Krzyzewski is the one coach Bennett hasn't been able to consistently figure out. The Blue Devils took two games from the 'Hoos last season in blockbuster top-five matchups, winning by two in Durham and 10 in Charlottesville. Duke has won five of the past six meetings, with the lone win in that span being the Cavaliers' 65-63 victory at Cameron in the 2017-18 season, their first in that arena since 1995.
Does Duke rebound from its bad loss to the Demon Deacons? Or do the Cavaliers have what it takes to play a full 40 minutes of some of their best basketball of the year and pull out a big, potentially NCAA tournament berth-solidifying win? Certainly, momentum is on UVa's side, having won eight of its past nine games and five in a row. The Blue Devils haven't dominated a team on the road since crushing Miami, 95-63, way back on Jan. 4. Since then, away from Cameron, Duke has four single-digit wins (Georgia Tech, Syracuse, BC, North Carolina) and three losses (Clemson, N.C. State, Wake).
My head tells me these Blue Devils are just too good for these Cavaliers, who haven't blown many teams out. But my head also tells me UVa hasn't gotten blown out this year, and the odds are in its favor that won't happen tonight. If the 'Hoos can stick around till the end, maybe their late-game prowess can take over. They don't need to play an absurdly good offensive game to win, I don't think, but getting into the 60s is probably necessary, maybe 65. But this Duke team doesn't have the firepower of last year's, and UVa's improved offense might be able to get going a bit against a defense that has given up some points. It took two weird games for Duke to beat Virginia last season: one in which the Cavaliers shot way below their average on 3s and one in which the Devils shot way above their average on 3s. I'm going to predict it's time for things to fall UVa's way in this series.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Comments
Post a Comment