Virginia at North Carolina, 8 p.m. ESPN
After hanging on for dear life against Notre Dame and getting a win at home that was important for their NCAA tournament resume, the Cavaliers head out on the road trying to avoid an unlikely landmine: North Carolina.
Playing a game at Chapel Hill rarely comes with the risk of enduring a bad loss. The Tar Heels, of course, are usually among the cream of the ACC's crop. But in this strange college basketball season in which the ACC is usually right in the middle of the messy strangeness, UNC finds itself in the conference's cellar.
North Carolina has been a model of consistency since the 2010-11 season, never losing more than 12 games and making the NCAA tournament each year. In 2015-16, UNC was the national runner-up. The year after that, it won it all. But things are a lot different in 2019-20. Here are the details on this decidedly down year for what is normally a college basketball titan:
Record: 10-14, 3-10
Coach: Roy Williams, 17th year at Carolina, 463-146; 32nd year overall, 881-247
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-3 freshman guard Cole Anthony (19.5), 6-9 junior forward Garrison Brooks (14.7), 6-5 senior guard Brandon Robinson (13.1), 6-10 freshman forward Armando Bacot (10.5)
Leading rebounders: Brooks (8.7), Bacot (8), Anthony (6.7), 6-8 sophomore guard Leaky Black (5), 6-7 senior guard Justin Pierce (4.2)
Assist leaders: Anthony (3.5), Robinson (2.7), Black (2.5), 6-0 freshman guard Jeremiah Francis (2)
Notable: Nine players are averaging double-figure minutes, but one of them, Robinson, has missed the past three games with a sprained ankle and could miss this one as well. Anthony missed 11 games with a knee injury, but has been back for the past four, all losses. After the Tar Heels' top four scorers, the next five average between 4.2 and 6 points. Anthony (1.6 steals per game), Black (1.3), and Robinson (1.2) lead the way in steals. Bacot blocks 1.3 shots per game. UNC lost freshman guard Anthony Harris (6.8 ppg) to a torn right ACL on Dec. 30 when the Heels faced Yale. He made his debut in the
previous Virginia-North Carolina matchup at JPJ on Dec. 8, scoring four points in six minutes. He tore his left ACL during his senior year of high school at Paul VI in Fairfax.
Best win: No. 11 Oregon in the Battle 4 Atlantis third-place game, 78-74. The Ducks are now 19-6 and ranked No. 17.
Worst win: 70-67 home win over Yale. I've mentioned the Bulldogs before as a pretty good team that is now 17-5. Still, a normal UNC team doesn't only beat an Ivy League team at home by three.
Other wins: Notre Dame, UNC Wilmington, Gardner-Webb, Elon, Alabama, UCLA, Miami, N.C. State
Best loss: Home against No. 7 Duke, 98-96, in overtime
Worst loss: At Wake, 74-57. The Demon Deacons are 11-13 and 4-10 in the ACC. It was the Tar Heels' first loss to Wake since 2014.
Other losses: Michigan, Ohio State, Virginia, Wofford, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Pittsburgh (home and away), Virginia Tech, Boston College, Florida State
What North Carolina does well: The Tar Heels still rebound well, boasting a +8 average rebounding margin (seventh nationally).
What North Carolina doesn't do well: Where to begin. North Carolina is shooting poorly from the field, 41 percent (306th), from beyond the 3-point arc, 28.7 percent (334th, one spot higher than UVa), and from the free throw line, 65.5 percent (310th).
Before we knew the Tar Heels were bad, Virginia battled them in Charlottesville in early December, with the Cavaliers coming away with a fairly hard-fought 56-47 victory over the then-No. 7 team in the country (UVa was No. 5 itself). Mamadi Diakite had 12 points to lead the Cavaliers. Francisco Caffaro was a breakout player in that game, getting 10 points and seven rebounds in 21 minutes, using his physicality against UNC's big men. He thoroughly outplayed Jay Huff, who had no points in 14 minutes. Against N.C. State, Caffaro had six points in 10 minutes, but he hasn't done much else in the other ACC contests, while Huff has made some strides. Tomas Woldetensae notched 11 points and made 3 of his 4 3-pointers. This was his breakout game for shooting the basketball, the first in which he made multiple 3s, and he's done it eight times since, most notably with seven each against Wake Forest and Louisville. Braxton Key didn't play because of his injured wrist.
UVa ended the first half on a 7-2 run to go into the break up 24-18. In the second half, the Wahoos led 31-29 but then slowly pulled away, increasing the margin to as many as 17 points. UNC never threatened again. The Tar Heels were led by Cole Anthony's 12 points, but he made only 4 of his 15 shots. Armando Bacot was the team's only other double-figure scorer with 11 points. UNC went 1 of 14 from deep.
UNC has won only four games since that first matchup and have now lost four straight after winning two in a row, when it looked like the team might actually get it together. Coach Roy Williams has expressed his exasperation after several of the setbacks, saying how disappointed he is in himself and the team. Williams has never finished with a losing record in any season as a coach, but that looks to be all but a certainty by the end of this ill-fated campaign. There have been flashes of potential -- the 10-point victory at N.C. State was a very solid win -- and some close losses, most notably the stunning overtime defeat to the Blue Devils, showing you can truly throw out the record books when those rivals tangle. UNC also barely lost to Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. But the bottoming-out moments came when the Heels lost by 13 at home to Georgia Tech while giving up 96 points, and then when they got pasted by the Demon Deacons, with the latter coming Tuesday.
It is interesting how both Virginia and North Carolina lost their versions of the Big Three -- for UNC, that was Cameron Johnson, Luke Maye, and Cobi White -- and the 'Hoos are hanging on to NCAA tournament relevancy for now, and the Tar Heels have faded into oblivion. Both teams are playing far below their standards on offense, but Virginia has been able to hang its hat on its defense and UNC ... has nowhere to hang its hat.
Robinson, who may not play, is the team’s best 3-point shooter at 35.3 percent, followed by Anthony (31.1), Black (28.3), Pierce (25.8), and 6-3 senior guard Christian Keeling (24.2), who has made one trey in each of the past three games and averaged 13 points over that span.
I think the result of this matchup could depend on UNC's motivation and what kind of a start Virginia has. Will UNC be motivated to come out and fight, as it did against Duke? Or was the Wake loss the beginning of apathy? If the Cavaliers can build a lead early, that might hurt the Tar Heels' confidence and make them all the more likely to wave the white flag, especially given their issues shooting the ball. But if the Heels can play even or get in front early, we may see a tight ballgame.
Make no mistake, this is still UNC. It has the talent to beat the 'Hoos for sure. The motivation? We will have to see. But I know a quality game lurks within the Tar Heels, and Virginia needs to be ready for their best shot. A loss to them at this point would damage the NCAA tournament resume, even if it came on the road. But I'm taking the Cavaliers to get it done in a game I don't expect to be a walk in the park.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
After hanging on for dear life against Notre Dame and getting a win at home that was important for their NCAA tournament resume, the Cavaliers head out on the road trying to avoid an unlikely landmine: North Carolina.
Playing a game at Chapel Hill rarely comes with the risk of enduring a bad loss. The Tar Heels, of course, are usually among the cream of the ACC's crop. But in this strange college basketball season in which the ACC is usually right in the middle of the messy strangeness, UNC finds itself in the conference's cellar.
North Carolina has been a model of consistency since the 2010-11 season, never losing more than 12 games and making the NCAA tournament each year. In 2015-16, UNC was the national runner-up. The year after that, it won it all. But things are a lot different in 2019-20. Here are the details on this decidedly down year for what is normally a college basketball titan:
Record: 10-14, 3-10
Coach: Roy Williams, 17th year at Carolina, 463-146; 32nd year overall, 881-247
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-3 freshman guard Cole Anthony (19.5), 6-9 junior forward Garrison Brooks (14.7), 6-5 senior guard Brandon Robinson (13.1), 6-10 freshman forward Armando Bacot (10.5)
Leading rebounders: Brooks (8.7), Bacot (8), Anthony (6.7), 6-8 sophomore guard Leaky Black (5), 6-7 senior guard Justin Pierce (4.2)
Assist leaders: Anthony (3.5), Robinson (2.7), Black (2.5), 6-0 freshman guard Jeremiah Francis (2)
Notable: Nine players are averaging double-figure minutes, but one of them, Robinson, has missed the past three games with a sprained ankle and could miss this one as well. Anthony missed 11 games with a knee injury, but has been back for the past four, all losses. After the Tar Heels' top four scorers, the next five average between 4.2 and 6 points. Anthony (1.6 steals per game), Black (1.3), and Robinson (1.2) lead the way in steals. Bacot blocks 1.3 shots per game. UNC lost freshman guard Anthony Harris (6.8 ppg) to a torn right ACL on Dec. 30 when the Heels faced Yale. He made his debut in the
Best win: No. 11 Oregon in the Battle 4 Atlantis third-place game, 78-74. The Ducks are now 19-6 and ranked No. 17.
Worst win: 70-67 home win over Yale. I've mentioned the Bulldogs before as a pretty good team that is now 17-5. Still, a normal UNC team doesn't only beat an Ivy League team at home by three.
Other wins: Notre Dame, UNC Wilmington, Gardner-Webb, Elon, Alabama, UCLA, Miami, N.C. State
Best loss: Home against No. 7 Duke, 98-96, in overtime
Worst loss: At Wake, 74-57. The Demon Deacons are 11-13 and 4-10 in the ACC. It was the Tar Heels' first loss to Wake since 2014.
Other losses: Michigan, Ohio State, Virginia, Wofford, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Pittsburgh (home and away), Virginia Tech, Boston College, Florida State
What North Carolina does well: The Tar Heels still rebound well, boasting a +8 average rebounding margin (seventh nationally).
What North Carolina doesn't do well: Where to begin. North Carolina is shooting poorly from the field, 41 percent (306th), from beyond the 3-point arc, 28.7 percent (334th, one spot higher than UVa), and from the free throw line, 65.5 percent (310th).
Before we knew the Tar Heels were bad, Virginia battled them in Charlottesville in early December, with the Cavaliers coming away with a fairly hard-fought 56-47 victory over the then-No. 7 team in the country (UVa was No. 5 itself). Mamadi Diakite had 12 points to lead the Cavaliers. Francisco Caffaro was a breakout player in that game, getting 10 points and seven rebounds in 21 minutes, using his physicality against UNC's big men. He thoroughly outplayed Jay Huff, who had no points in 14 minutes. Against N.C. State, Caffaro had six points in 10 minutes, but he hasn't done much else in the other ACC contests, while Huff has made some strides. Tomas Woldetensae notched 11 points and made 3 of his 4 3-pointers. This was his breakout game for shooting the basketball, the first in which he made multiple 3s, and he's done it eight times since, most notably with seven each against Wake Forest and Louisville. Braxton Key didn't play because of his injured wrist.
UVa ended the first half on a 7-2 run to go into the break up 24-18. In the second half, the Wahoos led 31-29 but then slowly pulled away, increasing the margin to as many as 17 points. UNC never threatened again. The Tar Heels were led by Cole Anthony's 12 points, but he made only 4 of his 15 shots. Armando Bacot was the team's only other double-figure scorer with 11 points. UNC went 1 of 14 from deep.
UNC has won only four games since that first matchup and have now lost four straight after winning two in a row, when it looked like the team might actually get it together. Coach Roy Williams has expressed his exasperation after several of the setbacks, saying how disappointed he is in himself and the team. Williams has never finished with a losing record in any season as a coach, but that looks to be all but a certainty by the end of this ill-fated campaign. There have been flashes of potential -- the 10-point victory at N.C. State was a very solid win -- and some close losses, most notably the stunning overtime defeat to the Blue Devils, showing you can truly throw out the record books when those rivals tangle. UNC also barely lost to Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. But the bottoming-out moments came when the Heels lost by 13 at home to Georgia Tech while giving up 96 points, and then when they got pasted by the Demon Deacons, with the latter coming Tuesday.
It is interesting how both Virginia and North Carolina lost their versions of the Big Three -- for UNC, that was Cameron Johnson, Luke Maye, and Cobi White -- and the 'Hoos are hanging on to NCAA tournament relevancy for now, and the Tar Heels have faded into oblivion. Both teams are playing far below their standards on offense, but Virginia has been able to hang its hat on its defense and UNC ... has nowhere to hang its hat.
Robinson, who may not play, is the team’s best 3-point shooter at 35.3 percent, followed by Anthony (31.1), Black (28.3), Pierce (25.8), and 6-3 senior guard Christian Keeling (24.2), who has made one trey in each of the past three games and averaged 13 points over that span.
I think the result of this matchup could depend on UNC's motivation and what kind of a start Virginia has. Will UNC be motivated to come out and fight, as it did against Duke? Or was the Wake loss the beginning of apathy? If the Cavaliers can build a lead early, that might hurt the Tar Heels' confidence and make them all the more likely to wave the white flag, especially given their issues shooting the ball. But if the Heels can play even or get in front early, we may see a tight ballgame.
Make no mistake, this is still UNC. It has the talent to beat the 'Hoos for sure. The motivation? We will have to see. But I know a quality game lurks within the Tar Heels, and Virginia needs to be ready for their best shot. A loss to them at this point would damage the NCAA tournament resume, even if it came on the road. But I'm taking the Cavaliers to get it done in a game I don't expect to be a walk in the park.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 5-10 points.
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