Virginia at No. 5 Louisville, 4 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
After struggling offensively but surviving against Clemson, the Cavaliers head to Louisville to take on the conference-leading Cardinals. UVa's defense will probably be able to keep it in the game for a while, but the team is going to have to more closely resemble the one that crushed Virginia Tech and upended Florida State if the Wahoos hope to have a chance at the upset.
Louisville has had a very hard time defeating Virginia lately and experienced some bad luck in some of the matchups. This year's Cardinals have hopes beyond the ACC, and they'll be focused on getting past Virginia and showing things are different this season -- they've already won at Duke as well. This is a big opportunity for the Cavaliers, but getting the victory will be a tough task to complete. Luckily, that's what this is: a chance to do something special. Losing to such a strong team, however, wouldn't damage UVa's hunt for an NCAA tournament berth too much. More on that below, but first, here's some more information on the Cardinals:
Record: 20-3, 11-1
Coach: Chris Mack. second year at Louisville, 40-17; 11th year overall, 255-114
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-7 junior forward Jordan Nwora (19.3), 6-10 senior center Steven Enoch (10.3)
Leading rebounders: 6-5 senior forward Dwayne Sutton (8.5), Nwora (7.4), 6-11 junior forward Malik Williams (6.2), Enoch (6.1)
Assist leaders: 6-2 junior guard Darius Perry (3.1), 6-0 senior guard Lamarr Kimble (3), Sutton (2)
Notable: Though only two players average double-figure points, the Cardinals score 76 points per game. They have seven players averaging between 4.6 and 9.1 points, with that group being paced by
Sutton (9.1) and 6-0 senior guard and 3-point marksman Ryan McMahon (8.8), who is shooting 46 percent beyond the arc. Nine players average double-figure minutes. Louisville does not steal the ball much, but Nwora and Sutton both average close to one steal (0.8). The Cards also aren't imposing blockers, with only Enoch (0.8), Sutton (0.7), and Williams (0.7) being close to threats to swat the ball.
Best win: At No. 3 Duke, 79-73
Worst win: Despite the gaudy record, the Cardinals have had some close calls, with the closest probably being a 68-64 home victory over Georgia Tech.
Other wins: Miami (home and away), Youngstown State, Indiana State, N.C. Central, S.C. Upstate, Akron, Western Kentucky, Michigan, Pittsburgh (home and away), Eastern Kentucky, Miami (Ohio), Notre Dame, Clemson, Boston College, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Best loss: At No. 19 Kentucky, 78-70
Worst loss: Texas Tech in New York, 70-57. Last season's runner-up is still solid at 14-8, but that's more losses than all of 2018-19.
Other loss: Florida State at home
What Louisville does well: It's probably more like what don't do the Cardinals do well? That next category will be tough. For here, I'll pick offense: Louisville scores 75.9 points per game (67th in the nation) and shoots 46.4 percent from the field (47th), 40.3 percent on 3-pointers (fifth), and 72.8 percent from the line (99th).
What Louisville doesn't do well: I'll go with an aggressive, play-making defense. The shooting percentages Louisville allows are low, but the Cardinals don't force turnovers, 11.57 per game (325th), and so, not surprisingly, don't get steals, 5.3 per game (296th), and they don't block shots, three per game (tied-199th).
The Cardinals are good in several areas this year. Their defense may be even better than their offense. Despite the lack of big defensive plays as described above, Louisville allows 63 ppg (31st) and shooting percentages of 37.3 from the field (eighth) and 29.1 from 3 (19th). Offensively, beyond McMahon's 46 percent 3-point shooting mark, the Cards also have Nwora (43.7 percent), Perry (39.3), Sutton (36.2), and Kimble (35.9) as dangerous shooters from deep.
On the boards, Louisville battles. The Cardinals sport an average rebounding margin of +6 (29th). One weakness -- sort of -- is turnovers. They commit 12.6 per game, but that still only lands them just outside the top 100 (tied-104th).
Louisville is a great team, and this is going to be a tough game for Virginia to win.
That's the obvious news. The good news is the Wahoos can attack this matchup as if they have nothing to lose. In some respects, that's true. Is this an opportunity for another signature win after the home victory over Florida State? Yes. In fact, it would be even better than that one.
But unlike the Clemson game, a loss at Louisville wouldn't hurt Virginia's profile beyond it being a missed chance for a huge win. The NCAA tournament selection committee doesn't punish teams for losing to top-10 squads on the road. And this game will help UVa's strength of schedule. So the Cavaliers can just go out there and battle and see what happens. Don't worry about the score, play hard, and then look up at the end to see how it went -- "surrender the outcome" as Bronco Mendenhall put it after his players did just that at North Carolina this past football season in a 38-31 win.
And it's not like UVa doesn't give Louisville problems. Goodness. Virginia fans have been saying they own the KFC Yum! Center for a few years now. Last season, the 'Hoos were down 12 before rallying to win by double digits. Two seasons ago, De'Andre Hunter banged in a 3 at the buzzer to cap an improbable five-points-in-5.8-seconds comeback. All told, UVa has won 10 of the teams' 11 ACC matchups. So Louisville may be the better team this year -- that is pretty cut and dry -- but it may have to get out of its head a little when it sees the name "Virginia" on the Cavaliers' jerseys.
Also, as referenced above, Louisville has had some close calls. In addition to the tight Georgia Tech win, the Cardinals were only able to beat Akron by by six, Notre Dame by three, Pitt by five, and, most recently, Wake Forest by 10, when the pitiful Demon Deacons led by 12 at the half in Louisville. As Virginia fans know, play in enough close games, and the results tend to even out somewhat. And two of the Cardinals' three losses are by double digits. So it's not like they are invincible.
With that said, I like Louisville to win this one. The Clemson performance doesn't inspire me to go out on a limb and pick UVa. When the Cardinals come to Charlottesville, maybe I'll feel differently. Virginia followed up its lackluster outing against Wake Forest by taking down FSU, though, so maybe the Wahoos will step up and own the Yum! Center once again.
Gut feeling: Louisville wins by 5-10 points.
After struggling offensively but surviving against Clemson, the Cavaliers head to Louisville to take on the conference-leading Cardinals. UVa's defense will probably be able to keep it in the game for a while, but the team is going to have to more closely resemble the one that crushed Virginia Tech and upended Florida State if the Wahoos hope to have a chance at the upset.
Louisville has had a very hard time defeating Virginia lately and experienced some bad luck in some of the matchups. This year's Cardinals have hopes beyond the ACC, and they'll be focused on getting past Virginia and showing things are different this season -- they've already won at Duke as well. This is a big opportunity for the Cavaliers, but getting the victory will be a tough task to complete. Luckily, that's what this is: a chance to do something special. Losing to such a strong team, however, wouldn't damage UVa's hunt for an NCAA tournament berth too much. More on that below, but first, here's some more information on the Cardinals:
Record: 20-3, 11-1
Coach: Chris Mack. second year at Louisville, 40-17; 11th year overall, 255-114
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-7 junior forward Jordan Nwora (19.3), 6-10 senior center Steven Enoch (10.3)
Leading rebounders: 6-5 senior forward Dwayne Sutton (8.5), Nwora (7.4), 6-11 junior forward Malik Williams (6.2), Enoch (6.1)
Assist leaders: 6-2 junior guard Darius Perry (3.1), 6-0 senior guard Lamarr Kimble (3), Sutton (2)
Notable: Though only two players average double-figure points, the Cardinals score 76 points per game. They have seven players averaging between 4.6 and 9.1 points, with that group being paced by
Best win: At No. 3 Duke, 79-73
Worst win: Despite the gaudy record, the Cardinals have had some close calls, with the closest probably being a 68-64 home victory over Georgia Tech.
Other wins: Miami (home and away), Youngstown State, Indiana State, N.C. Central, S.C. Upstate, Akron, Western Kentucky, Michigan, Pittsburgh (home and away), Eastern Kentucky, Miami (Ohio), Notre Dame, Clemson, Boston College, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Best loss: At No. 19 Kentucky, 78-70
Worst loss: Texas Tech in New York, 70-57. Last season's runner-up is still solid at 14-8, but that's more losses than all of 2018-19.
Other loss: Florida State at home
What Louisville does well: It's probably more like what don't do the Cardinals do well? That next category will be tough. For here, I'll pick offense: Louisville scores 75.9 points per game (67th in the nation) and shoots 46.4 percent from the field (47th), 40.3 percent on 3-pointers (fifth), and 72.8 percent from the line (99th).
What Louisville doesn't do well: I'll go with an aggressive, play-making defense. The shooting percentages Louisville allows are low, but the Cardinals don't force turnovers, 11.57 per game (325th), and so, not surprisingly, don't get steals, 5.3 per game (296th), and they don't block shots, three per game (tied-199th).
The Cardinals are good in several areas this year. Their defense may be even better than their offense. Despite the lack of big defensive plays as described above, Louisville allows 63 ppg (31st) and shooting percentages of 37.3 from the field (eighth) and 29.1 from 3 (19th). Offensively, beyond McMahon's 46 percent 3-point shooting mark, the Cards also have Nwora (43.7 percent), Perry (39.3), Sutton (36.2), and Kimble (35.9) as dangerous shooters from deep.
On the boards, Louisville battles. The Cardinals sport an average rebounding margin of +6 (29th). One weakness -- sort of -- is turnovers. They commit 12.6 per game, but that still only lands them just outside the top 100 (tied-104th).
Louisville is a great team, and this is going to be a tough game for Virginia to win.
That's the obvious news. The good news is the Wahoos can attack this matchup as if they have nothing to lose. In some respects, that's true. Is this an opportunity for another signature win after the home victory over Florida State? Yes. In fact, it would be even better than that one.
But unlike the Clemson game, a loss at Louisville wouldn't hurt Virginia's profile beyond it being a missed chance for a huge win. The NCAA tournament selection committee doesn't punish teams for losing to top-10 squads on the road. And this game will help UVa's strength of schedule. So the Cavaliers can just go out there and battle and see what happens. Don't worry about the score, play hard, and then look up at the end to see how it went -- "surrender the outcome" as Bronco Mendenhall put it after his players did just that at North Carolina this past football season in a 38-31 win.
And it's not like UVa doesn't give Louisville problems. Goodness. Virginia fans have been saying they own the KFC Yum! Center for a few years now. Last season, the 'Hoos were down 12 before rallying to win by double digits. Two seasons ago, De'Andre Hunter banged in a 3 at the buzzer to cap an improbable five-points-in-5.8-seconds comeback. All told, UVa has won 10 of the teams' 11 ACC matchups. So Louisville may be the better team this year -- that is pretty cut and dry -- but it may have to get out of its head a little when it sees the name "Virginia" on the Cavaliers' jerseys.
Also, as referenced above, Louisville has had some close calls. In addition to the tight Georgia Tech win, the Cardinals were only able to beat Akron by by six, Notre Dame by three, Pitt by five, and, most recently, Wake Forest by 10, when the pitiful Demon Deacons led by 12 at the half in Louisville. As Virginia fans know, play in enough close games, and the results tend to even out somewhat. And two of the Cardinals' three losses are by double digits. So it's not like they are invincible.
With that said, I like Louisville to win this one. The Clemson performance doesn't inspire me to go out on a limb and pick UVa. When the Cardinals come to Charlottesville, maybe I'll feel differently. Virginia followed up its lackluster outing against Wake Forest by taking down FSU, though, so maybe the Wahoos will step up and own the Yum! Center once again.
Gut feeling: Louisville wins by 5-10 points.
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