Virginia at Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. ESPN2
Winners of four straight games and seven of eight, the Cavaliers head to Blacksburg on Wednesday night for a rematch with the rival Hokies.
Following a bit of a bumpy nonconference schedule compared to recent seasons, UVa's 65-39 win over Virginia Tech on Jan. 4 was viewed as a righting of the ship. The 10-3 Hokies were off to a surprisingly great start, and it seemed like a legitimately good win. But little did fans know, Virginia was just getting started with the roughest part of its season to date.
After blowing out the Hokies, UVa traveled to Boston College and lost to the below-average Eagles 60-53. Virginia went on to lose three consecutive contests for the first time since 2016-17 and four of five, with the additional defeats coming against Syracuse, Florida State, and N.C. State, each in excruciating fashion in the final seconds of regulation or overtime.
Since then, though, UVa has straightened things out and appears to be headed to its seventh consecutive NCAA tournament barring a bad finish. Sitting at 19-7 and 11-5 in the conference, even in a down year for the team and the league, I think Virginia can almost assure itself of an NCAA tournament bid with two more regular-season wins, which would mean going at least 2-2 over its final four games.
After the trip to Tech, Virginia faces Duke at home, then goes to Miami, then finishes up with Louisville in Charlottesville. Depending on who the victories would come over, 2-2 might be enough. The Duke and Louisville games will pretty much be high-reward, low-risk games where UVa can only improve its standing and not get hurt. Furthermore, barring a collapse, the Cavaliers look like they'll be at least the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament, meaning they'd get a double bye into the quarterfinals where they'd face the No. 5, No. 12, or No. 13 seeds.
It wouldn't surprise me if Virginia drops one of the games it will be favored in and wins one of the ones in which it will likely be the underdog. But given Louisville's and Duke’s stumbles of late -- and the tough way in which UVa battled the Cardinals at the KFC Yum! Center -- I could actually see Virginia being favored in the regular-season finale. The Blue Devils might still have the Vegas edge for Saturday’s matchup, but they did just give up 113 points and lose in double overtime at Wake Forest. If the 'Hoos do manage to go 2-2, winning at least one ACC tournament game for a 22nd win could seal the deal. But let's not got ahead of ourselves. First up are wins 20 and 21.
As it sits now, Virginia is off the bubble in ESPN.com's latest Bracketology as a No. 10 seed, but a not-so-good loss or two to Tech or Miami would threaten that spot. One other worrisome quibble is that Virginia's NET ranking (No. 51 as of Tuesday evening at 9 p.m.) is no better than a handful of bubble teams, which is both troubling and also frustrating given the run the squad is on. Supposedly, UVa is getting hurt by not beating many teams by more than expected -- aka, playing close games. But as I'm sure fans will say, just like last March and April, we are fine winning close games all the way to a national championship.
So there's still work to do, but so far, the Wahoos have been taking care of business since things were looking a bit dire after losing to N.C. State on Jan. 20. What about the Hokies? What have they been up to since getting crushed in Charlottesville?
Well, just like the win had an unexpected effect for UVa and sent it on a little tailspin, the same can be said for Virginia Tech. The Hokies dusted themselves off and won three in a row and four of five, beating two teams that Virginia lost to -- Syracuse and N.C. State -- and Wake Forest and UNC. The loss came against the Orange as the two faced each other twice in just 11 days. Since defeating North Carolina in double overtime, however, things have gone south. Tech has now lost seven of eight to fall completely out of contention for an NCAA tournament at-large berth at 15-12 and 6-10 in the conference.
Most of the defeats have been tough to swallow or embarrassing. The Hokies got trucked by Georgia Tech, 76-57, lost in triple overtime to Miami, got swept by Boston College, and they weren't competitive at home against Duke in an 88-64 game not as close as the score indicates.
What's changed for the team? The 3-point accuracy has been declining. Going into the Jan. 4 contest at UVa, Tech was 14th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.4 percent. Now it is 73rd at 35.4 percent. Leading scorer Landers Nolley II was averaging 17.4 points on Jan. 4 and is down to 16.7. He was shooting 43.5 percent from beyond the arc, now 33 percent. Leading marksman Jalen Cone is
still above 50 percent, but is down to 51 percent from 55.9. The Hokies' 3-point defense has also taken a hit. Opponents are shooting 32.1 percent from beyond the arc now as opposed to 30.8 percent Jan. 4. They're getting beat more often on the glass, too. Their rebounding margin ranked 157th on Jan. 4, now 265th.
One number that is up for Tech -- a good one to keep in mind if it is a close game -- is free throw shooting. The Hokies are now at 70.9 percent, whereas they were at 68.7 percent Jan. 4.
One player to keep an eye on for Tech is Tyrece Radford. He has upped his game since the first meeting. He's averaging 10.4 points now as opposed to 7.8 then. He's scored in double figures in six of the past seven games, averaging 16.3 in that span.
Though Virginia is hotter than Tech right now, that sort of thing has meant next to nothing in this rivalry recently. The Cavaliers have been better than the Hokies for basically the entire decade, but an easy season sweep has rarely been in the offing. Tech has scratched out six wins since the 2009-10 season, Tony Bennett's first, and even in their worst years, the Hokies were competitive in at least one game, such as losing by 20 in 2013-14 in the first meeting and then by just four in the second, or in 2014-15, when they lost by just three and then 12. Beating them by 26 on Jan. 4 is meaningless. Virginia did that two years ago in Blacksburg, and then the Hokies won at JPJ. UVa hasn't won both games by double digits since 2012-13.
Just because the Hokies aren't shooting well right now doesn't mean a whole lot either. It takes just one game, just a couple shots in a row, for the players to gain confidence and find their swagger. In a season that has gone off the rails a bit but has still been pretty successful for a team picked to finish last in the ACC, a victory over the bitter rival would still be big. I'm taking the ’Hoos in what I expect to be another nail-biter in a season and series full of them.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Winners of four straight games and seven of eight, the Cavaliers head to Blacksburg on Wednesday night for a rematch with the rival Hokies.
Following a bit of a bumpy nonconference schedule compared to recent seasons, UVa's 65-39 win over Virginia Tech on Jan. 4 was viewed as a righting of the ship. The 10-3 Hokies were off to a surprisingly great start, and it seemed like a legitimately good win. But little did fans know, Virginia was just getting started with the roughest part of its season to date.
After blowing out the Hokies, UVa traveled to Boston College and lost to the below-average Eagles 60-53. Virginia went on to lose three consecutive contests for the first time since 2016-17 and four of five, with the additional defeats coming against Syracuse, Florida State, and N.C. State, each in excruciating fashion in the final seconds of regulation or overtime.
Since then, though, UVa has straightened things out and appears to be headed to its seventh consecutive NCAA tournament barring a bad finish. Sitting at 19-7 and 11-5 in the conference, even in a down year for the team and the league, I think Virginia can almost assure itself of an NCAA tournament bid with two more regular-season wins, which would mean going at least 2-2 over its final four games.
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| Braxton Key shoots over Landers Nolley II on Jan. 4. Key had 18 points and 10 rebounds in the big win. |
After the trip to Tech, Virginia faces Duke at home, then goes to Miami, then finishes up with Louisville in Charlottesville. Depending on who the victories would come over, 2-2 might be enough. The Duke and Louisville games will pretty much be high-reward, low-risk games where UVa can only improve its standing and not get hurt. Furthermore, barring a collapse, the Cavaliers look like they'll be at least the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament, meaning they'd get a double bye into the quarterfinals where they'd face the No. 5, No. 12, or No. 13 seeds.
It wouldn't surprise me if Virginia drops one of the games it will be favored in and wins one of the ones in which it will likely be the underdog. But given Louisville's and Duke’s stumbles of late -- and the tough way in which UVa battled the Cardinals at the KFC Yum! Center -- I could actually see Virginia being favored in the regular-season finale. The Blue Devils might still have the Vegas edge for Saturday’s matchup, but they did just give up 113 points and lose in double overtime at Wake Forest. If the 'Hoos do manage to go 2-2, winning at least one ACC tournament game for a 22nd win could seal the deal. But let's not got ahead of ourselves. First up are wins 20 and 21.
As it sits now, Virginia is off the bubble in ESPN.com's latest Bracketology as a No. 10 seed, but a not-so-good loss or two to Tech or Miami would threaten that spot. One other worrisome quibble is that Virginia's NET ranking (No. 51 as of Tuesday evening at 9 p.m.) is no better than a handful of bubble teams, which is both troubling and also frustrating given the run the squad is on. Supposedly, UVa is getting hurt by not beating many teams by more than expected -- aka, playing close games. But as I'm sure fans will say, just like last March and April, we are fine winning close games all the way to a national championship.
So there's still work to do, but so far, the Wahoos have been taking care of business since things were looking a bit dire after losing to N.C. State on Jan. 20. What about the Hokies? What have they been up to since getting crushed in Charlottesville?
Well, just like the win had an unexpected effect for UVa and sent it on a little tailspin, the same can be said for Virginia Tech. The Hokies dusted themselves off and won three in a row and four of five, beating two teams that Virginia lost to -- Syracuse and N.C. State -- and Wake Forest and UNC. The loss came against the Orange as the two faced each other twice in just 11 days. Since defeating North Carolina in double overtime, however, things have gone south. Tech has now lost seven of eight to fall completely out of contention for an NCAA tournament at-large berth at 15-12 and 6-10 in the conference.
Most of the defeats have been tough to swallow or embarrassing. The Hokies got trucked by Georgia Tech, 76-57, lost in triple overtime to Miami, got swept by Boston College, and they weren't competitive at home against Duke in an 88-64 game not as close as the score indicates.
What's changed for the team? The 3-point accuracy has been declining. Going into the Jan. 4 contest at UVa, Tech was 14th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.4 percent. Now it is 73rd at 35.4 percent. Leading scorer Landers Nolley II was averaging 17.4 points on Jan. 4 and is down to 16.7. He was shooting 43.5 percent from beyond the arc, now 33 percent. Leading marksman Jalen Cone is
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| Jay Huff and the Wahoos made things very difficult on the Hokies earlier this season, holding them to 39 points, by far their lowest output in any game. |
One number that is up for Tech -- a good one to keep in mind if it is a close game -- is free throw shooting. The Hokies are now at 70.9 percent, whereas they were at 68.7 percent Jan. 4.
One player to keep an eye on for Tech is Tyrece Radford. He has upped his game since the first meeting. He's averaging 10.4 points now as opposed to 7.8 then. He's scored in double figures in six of the past seven games, averaging 16.3 in that span.
Though Virginia is hotter than Tech right now, that sort of thing has meant next to nothing in this rivalry recently. The Cavaliers have been better than the Hokies for basically the entire decade, but an easy season sweep has rarely been in the offing. Tech has scratched out six wins since the 2009-10 season, Tony Bennett's first, and even in their worst years, the Hokies were competitive in at least one game, such as losing by 20 in 2013-14 in the first meeting and then by just four in the second, or in 2014-15, when they lost by just three and then 12. Beating them by 26 on Jan. 4 is meaningless. Virginia did that two years ago in Blacksburg, and then the Hokies won at JPJ. UVa hasn't won both games by double digits since 2012-13.
Just because the Hokies aren't shooting well right now doesn't mean a whole lot either. It takes just one game, just a couple shots in a row, for the players to gain confidence and find their swagger. In a season that has gone off the rails a bit but has still been pretty successful for a team picked to finish last in the ACC, a victory over the bitter rival would still be big. I'm taking the ’Hoos in what I expect to be another nail-biter in a season and series full of them.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
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