Week 5 college picks

Last week: 8-0 Season: 18-4

 OK, so I made the title of this post "Week 5" rather than "Week 4" just to be consistent with what the rest of the college football world is doing, because I apparently began making predictions during Week 2 and ignored Week 1.

Highlights of my picks from last week (besides going 8-0) included getting the margin right for Pittsburgh-Louisville (guess was 31-28, actual score was 23-20) and picking Syracuse to top Georgia Tech (guess was 20-19, actual score was 37-20. I also thought Boston College might have some trouble with Texas State, and it did, but the Bobcats were even more difficult for the Eagles than I predicted (guess was 31-17, actual score was 24-21).

Friday's game
Campbell (0-3) at Wake Forest (0-2), 7 p.m. ACC Network
The Demon Deacons lost to Clemson in a blowout and to N.C. State by three in a shootout. The Fighting Camels should be just what they need to notch their first victory of 2020.
Wake Forest 42, Campbell 17

Saturday's games
N.C. State (1-1) at No. 24 Pittsburgh, (3-0), Noon, ACC Network
The Panthers have not scored many points the past two weeks, 21 against Syracuse and 23 against Louisville, but it's been enough to remain undefeated, and they are looking for their first 4-0 start in 20 years this weekend. QB Kenny Pickett has been solid, completing 66 percent of his passes while throwing five TDs and two picks. The senior is easily on pace for his best year. N.C. State meanwhile has used both Bailey Hockman and Devin Leary as signal-callers its first two games -- a close shootout win over Wake Forest and a blowout loss to Virginia Tech -- and coach Dave Doeren has said he will use both Saturday. That's usually not a good formula and in this case, it means neither one is the sure thing right now. Pittsburgh's tenacious defense is ranked second overall in the country and fifth in sacks per game (5.67). It collected seven sacks and 12 tackles for losses against the Cardinals.
Pittsburgh 27, N.C. State 17

No. 13 Texas A&M (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0), 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Crimson Tide have lost three of their past five matchups against ranked teams, but they crushed No. 24 Texas A&M last year, 47-28, and have defeated the Aggies by an average of 21.7 points in seven straight games. A&M was led by Johnny Manziel when it toppled 'Bama in 2012, 29-24. The Tide cruised 38-19 over Missouri last week while Texas A&M struggled against Vanderbilt in a 17-12 win.
Alabama 34, Texas A&M 20

No. 12 North Carolina (1-0) at Boston College (2-0), 3:30 p.m. ABC
UNC blew out Syracuse in its only game two weeks ago. Its matchup with Charlotte last week was canceled. BC had an up-and-down first two games under new coach Jeff Hafley, easily beating Duke, but then last week, the Eagles were behind Texas State 21-14 before rallying for a 24-21 victory.
North Carolina 34, Boston College 21

Virginia Tech (1-0) at Duke (0-3), 4 p.m. ACC Network
The Blue Devils have had a rough, rough first three games. For the past two, they served as the openers for Boston College and Virginia, meaning they had no new film to study for either. New QB Chase Brice has been ineffective, and the team has 14 turnovers. On the other hand, despite seemingly trying circumstances, the Hokies had a great opener last week. Even with 23 players and a couple of coaches  players out due to COVID-19 protocols, and QB Hendon Hooker out for a reason that may go beyond the virus, Tech crushed N.C. State, 45-24. The Hokies started Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister at QB, but he left with hand cramps in the second quarter. Quincy Patterson replaced him. Both played well and didn't turn the ball over. Patterson threw two TDs and ran for another. Between them, they only tossed 17 passes as the Hokies pounded the 'Pack with the ground game to the tune of 314 yards. Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert led the way with 104 yards and a score on just six carries. Duke's defense is tough, but I don't think it will matter much since the offense can't get out of its own way. There are probably plenty of Hokies eager to get revenge after Duke came to Lane Stadium last year and won, 45-10.
Virginia Tech 31, Duke 17

Jacksonville State (0-0) at Florida State (0-2), 4 p.m. ESPN3
The Seminoles lost in a close, low-scoring, ugly game two weeks ago to Georgia Tech and then got pummeled by Miami last week. They should record the first win of the Mike Norvell era against the Gamecocks. It's worth noting JSU usually has a very solid squad on the FCS level. It is getting paid handsomely to play in this contest I'm sure, but it only has a few games scheduled this year. The Gamecocks will probably throw the kitchen sink at FSU.
Florida State 31, Jacksonville State 17

Deep South's Oldest Rivalry
No. 7 Auburn (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0), 7:30 p.m. ESPN
This is the 125th meeting, according to Wikipedia, of this great rivalry, and the series is remarkably close, with Georgia holding a 60-56-8 edge. The Tigers defeated Kentucky, which was ranked No. 23 last week, 29-13, while the Bulldogs pulled away from Arkansas, 37-10, after being down 10-5 at the half. Georgia started redshirt freshman D'Wan Mathis at QB, and he was ineffective, so at the break, coach Kirby Smart inserted Stetson Bennett IV, a former walk-on, and he played better. This week, USC transfer J.T. Daniels has been cleared to play after the knee injury he suffered last season in the Trojans' opener. The Bulldogs are hoping he can spark their offense. Auburn has only defeated Georgia once in the past seven meetings, and the Tigers have only managed to score 10.3 points per game over the past three. Georgia again looks to have one of the best defenses in the country. I'm tempted a little bit by the Bulldogs' struggles on offense last week to pick Auburn. Even with Daniels, a former five-star recruit, back, he will be rusty. And the home-field advantage for the Bulldogs "Between the Hedges" will be weakened, with only about 20 percent capacity at Sanford Stadium. But I'm going to stick with Georgia and its defense to get the job done.
Georgia 23, Auburn 16

Virginia (1-0) at No. 1 Clemson (2-0), 8 p.m. ACC Network
The Cavaliers and Tigers had not met since 2013 prior to the 2019 ACC championship, and now, less than a year later, they square off again, this time with Clemson getting top billing in the polls. This is the first time UVa has faced a No. 1-ranked team since hosting Florida State in 1999, a game the Seminoles won 35-10 on the way to capturing the national championship.

For UVa, this will be another measuring-stick game after the first one of the original 2020 season against Georgia was canceled. Fans hope the program looks better facing Clemson than it did in Charlotte in December, when the Tigers ran away with a 62-17 win. No reasonable Wahoo expects an upset win, but some progress would be nice.

The Cavaliers are in a much better position defensively now than they were in that recent matchup, when several players were injured. It would be disappointing and surprising for the Tigers to hang 60 on the 'Hoos again. It would be especially nice if the turnovers (seven) and sacks (five) from last week's game against Duke could carry over at least a little bit to this week.

It's going to be tough to force Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence into mistakes, though. He threw his most recent interception Oct. 19, 2019, against Louisville and hasn't had one in 10 straight contests. So far in 2020, he's 30 of 37 (81.1 percent) for 519 yards and five TDs. It seems like the Tigers have barely had to lift a paw in their first two games, easy 37-13 and 49-0 victories over Wake Forest and The Citadel, respectively. And I think they maybe took it easy versus the Demon Deacons and/or were just getting into the flow of playing again.

Elsewhere on offense, two-time ACC player of the year RB Travis Etienne has 170 yards (6.8 ypc) and a TD, WR Amari Rodgers has six catches for 134 yards (22.3 ypc) and a score, and WR Frank Ladson Jr. has four receptions and a pair of TDs. DEs Myles Murphy and Regan Upshaw have two and 1.5 sacks, respectively.

Clemson infamously won the first 29 games in this series before Virginia finally broke through in 1990 with a 20-7 victory. Under Al Groh, the 'Hoos actually defeated the Tigers in three of four meetings from 2001-04. Those days are over, but the teams have only met four times since the Cavaliers cruised past the Tigers 30-10 in 2004. All four games have been won by Clemson by double digits: 13-3 in 2008, 34-21 in 2009, 59-10 in 2013, and last year.

So I'm just looking for the team to be more competitive this time around. I really hope and don't think that would be that difficult to pull off. Like I said, UVa's defense is healthier, and Clemson's offense still could be finding itself a bit after the loss of some offensive linemen and weapons off the 2019 team. I think the UVa offense, whether it was last season's version led by Bryce Perkins or this season's with Brennan Armstrong, would have a tough time against the top-10 defense Clemson rolls out onto the field every year. Not sure that matters too much. We saw last week that the Wahoos' offense looks like it'll be at least pretty good this season. Let's face it. It is going to take a monumentally clean game from Virginia to be even close to thinking upset.

But more importantly, it would take a big-time off game from Clemson. The Tigers, for all of their recent dominance, do usually slog through at least one weird game each year. Last season, they barely beat UNC, 21-20. In 2018, Syracuse dropped a 27-23 decision at Clemson and in 2017, the Orange took down the Tigers 27-24. In 2016, Pittsburgh won at Clemson. In 2015, the Tigers made it all the way to the national championship undefeated before losing to Alabama, but that year, they won four games by single digits. So, it is possible. The odds are still against Virginia making this a tight game, but boys, just like I told you in December, go out there, have fun, play hard, and just don't worry about the scoreboard. Throw everything you got at them, and you'll see what that means at the end of the night. There's absolutely no pressure on you.
Clemson 45, Virginia 17