Week 7 college picks

Last week: 4-6 Season: 29-11

Wow last week was really ugly for me. Texas A&M’s upset of Florida, Georgia Tech surprising Louisville, North Carolina turning on the afterburners against Virginia Tech, Oklahoma’s wild, four-overtime victory over archrival Texas, Boston College edging Pittsburgh in OT, and N.C. State controlling Virginia: all results that tripped me up. Here’s to Week 7 and better picks, especially for the Wahoos. I ran low on time this week, so just predictions till I get to the Virginia-Wake Forest matchup.

No. 1 Clemson (4-0) at Georgia Tech (2-2), Noon, ABC

Clemson 45, Georgia Tech 17

Pittsburgh (3-2) at No. 13 Miami (3-1), Noon, ACC Network

Miami 34, Pittsburgh 24

Liberty (4-0) at Syracuse (1-3), Noon, ESPN3

Syracuse 31, Liberty 28

Louisville (1-3) at No. 4 Notre Dame (3-0), 2:30 p.m. NBC

Notre Dame 45, Louisville 27

 

Duke (1-4) at N.C. State (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ESPN3

N.C. State 27, Duke 23

 

No. 5 North Carolina (3-0) at Florida State (1-3), 7:30 ABC

North Carolina 42, Florida State 27

 

No. 3 Georgia (3-0) at No. 2 Alabama (3-0), 8 p.m. CBS

Alabama 34, Georgia 30

 

Boston College (3-1) at No. 23 Virginia Tech (2-1), 8 p.m. ACC Network

Boston College 33, Virginia Tech 30

Virginia (1-2) at Wake Forest (1-2), 4 p.m. ACC Network

This is sort of a gut-check game for the Cavaliers. The performance last week was unexpected. But for the most part, Virginia has rarely put up two stinkers in a row the past two seasons under coach Bronco Mendenhall. So I'm sure everyone associated with the program -- especially those within it -- has expectations that the team will at least look a lot better -- if not win -- in Winston-Salem than it did last weekend in Charlottesville.

Based on the mostly positive outing Lindell Stone had at QB against N.C. State, I don't know if who starts matters too much for Virginia, as far as what outcome to expect. It would be great if Brennan Armstrong is healthy and can start, but he has been struggling. Stone looked capable last week, though he cannot bring the running element to the offense that Armstrong does. But Mendenhall said that Stone knows the playbook better than the coaches in some cases. I don’t think Stone starting would necessarily mean Virginia is less likely to win. I’ll just say I do think the Cavaliers can come away with the victory with Stone under center.

Virginia did receive a bit of good news this week when the NCAA finally deemed RB Ronnie Walker eligible. He’s been practicing, so he should be ready to go for the Cavaliers. He will be a welcome addition to the backfield, which has exclusively been using Wayne Taulapapa and Shane Simpson, both of whom are still healthy. 

The opponent, like Virginia somewhat so far, is hard to get a read on. Wake Forest went 8-5 in 2019, coach Dave Clawson's sixth year at the school, but, like UVa, lost a lot of talent on offense and was not expected to be particularly good this season (though of course some people, including yours truly, was bullish when predicting Virginia's win-loss record). Wake was picked by the ACC media to finish 10th in the conference. That same media picked Virginia ninth. The Demon Deacons' resume in 2020 looks similar to the Cavaliers': a blowout loss to Clemson, though not an obliteration (41-23 for UVa, 37-13 for Wake), a victory over a bad team (Duke for Virginia, Campbell for Wake), and a loss to N.C. State (38-21 for UVa, 45-42 for Wake).

QB Sam Hartman, who started the majority of Wake's 2018 games before injuring his leg and then was the backup last year, has completed 63% of his passes for 584 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He has been sacked 11 times, with State getting him six times, and Clemson putting him on the ground four times. Virginia's pass rush has been a little lackluster, especially last week. The Cavaliers had seven sacks against Duke, two at Clemson, but none versus the Wolfpack. They have to get some pressure on Hartman, and the offensive line has shown it is vulnerable. Maybe they can force him into his first big mistake. Wake is one of four FBS teams not to have thrown a pick.

On the ground, Kenneth Walker III and Christian Beal-Smith have 44 carries each for the Demon Deacons. Walker has 255 yards (5.8 ypc), and Beal-Smith has 198 yards (4.5 ypc). They both have four scores. Wake Forest has enjoyed solid rushing attacks under Clawson. Virginia is going to have to be sound with its tackling, something that has been an issue at times. WRs Jaquarii Roberson (13 receptions, one TD), Taylor Morin (14, two), and A.T. Perry (11, zero) each are capable pass-catchers.

Defensively, Wake Forest has been up and down, but the Demon Deacons have forced six turnovers (four picks, two fumble recoveries), while the offense has lost just one fumble. The Deacons have finished in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin in three of the past four seasons. And DE Carlos Basham Jr. is a menace who already has three tackles for losses and two sacks.

Expectations are a bit down for the Deacons this year, but under Clawson, they are typically solid and don't beat themselves too often. If UVa comes out sloppy again, it likely will pack up and head back to Grounds with another defeat. The Wahoos have to be mentally ready right from the kickoff. Mendenhall said the team addressed the slow starts Monday, so hopefully they have figured out what’s going on. UVa is one of four FBS teams to have not scored a point in any first quarter. 

This season could really get off the rails a bit if Virginia loses this game and falls to 1-3. Miami and North Carolina are next. Boston College looks improved, and Virginia Tech will be tough, of course. Frankly, if the Cavaliers fall to the Deacons, it seems unlikely they'll be able to finish with a winning record.

But I think the team has a lot of confidence in Stone after seeing what he did in bringing the team back from the dead last week. And you know the defense is focused on turning things around. The team is not happy with how it looked versus State, and I think the players will be pretty locked in and ready to bounce back. Internal expectations are higher than a few seasons ago, and I think the guys will hold each other accountable and as a collective, everyone will play better.

I think it will be a tough game, but I believe we will see a sharper team come out onto the field in Winston-Salem. I think it is possible the Wahoos just aren't as good as we all hoped, but that doesn't mean they can't come together and take down a Wake Forest team that may be solid, but won't be scary.

Virginia 30, Wake Forest 27