Week 11 college picks

Last week: 5-4 Season: 52-24 

This week we have a mini-slate of just five games. UVa and Louisville were supposed to have played last week, but the game got moved to this weekend because of numerous COVID-19 cases in the Cardinals' program. Quite a few other contests this weekend have been postponed or canceled due to the virus, including Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech in the ACC and Alabama at LSU in the SEC.

No. 9 Miami (6-1) at Virginia Tech (4-3), Noon, ESPN
The Hokies lost in spectacular fashion to undefeated Liberty last week. It is worth checking out if you don't know what I am talking about. The past two weeks, Virginia Tech has given up 35 points to a 2-5 Louisville squad and lost in Blacksburg to the Flames, yet they are still two-point home favorites against the Hurricanes. Granted, Liberty is undefeated, but beating Virginia Tech is its most impressive feat. The Flames' other six wins came against bad teams. The Hurricanes topped N.C. State, barely, 44-41 last Friday and still have just one loss, to Clemson. Last season, Tech went down to Miami coming off of a 45-10 home loss to Duke at 2-2. Prospects were bleak for the Hokies. They went up 28-0 before blowing the entire lead. Miami was down 35-29, scored, but missed the point after, and the game remained tied at 35 with more than three minutes to go. The Hokies scored with a minute left to get in front 42-35. Miami drove down the field, but a final passing attempt into the end zone fell incomplete. It seems like every time you think Tech's getting ready to go on a tailspin the past few seasons, it somehow bucks up and nabs an unexpected victory. I'm not sure why the Hokies are favored, but I am sort of buying into it. Given Miami's iffy trend recently despite the victories, and Tech's propensity to come back to life, I'm taking Tech.
Virginia Tech 41, Miami 38

Wake Forest (4-2) at North Carolina (5-2), Noon, ACC Network
This is probably an underrated game this weekend. Nice Tobacco Road matchup. It is also another contest that has a weird line I don't really understand. The Tar Heels are two-touchdown favorites, which seems like way too much. The Demon Deacons have won four straight and are just a few points away from being 5-1. The Tar Heels have alternated three-point losses and easy victories the past four weeks (alternating lack of focus with focus?) with losses to Florida State and Virginia and wins over N.C. State and Duke. Wake Forest beat Virginia, but did lose to N.C. State to open the year. Dating to 2011, these programs have split this series 2-2, with the Demon Deacons winning 24-18 last year. I'm going to give the Tar Heels the slight edge, but I am not feeling particularly strong about that prediction, and it seems like this should be a close contest.
North Carolina 37, Wake Forest 34

No. 2 Notre Dame (7-0) at Boston College (5-3), 3:30 p.m. ABC
I'd put the Fighting Irish on upset alert too as two-touchdown favorites against the Eagles. They are coming off of a monumental win over Clemson last week. It's only natural they would have a hard time getting back up this week for a lesser opponent. BC's claim to fame is almost beating Clemson, and it did give UNC a hard time, too. I'll take Notre Dame, but it wouldn't surprise me if this was a little closer than expected.
Notre Dame 30, Boston College 20

Florida State (2-5) at N.C. State (4-3), 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Wolfpack have lost two straight with backup QB Bailey Hockman under center, 48-21 to North Carolina and 44-41 to Miami. Luckily for them, Florida State's defense is not good, and the Seminoles have gotten blown out the past two weeks, 48-16 to Louisville and 41-17 to Pittsburgh. What's worse is a couple of key players will miss the rest of the season: DT Marvin Wilson with a leg injury, and WR Tamorrion Terry, who is no longer with the program. Additionally, QB James Blackman, benched earlier this season, will transfer. Coach Mike Norvell has had a rough first campaign in Tallahassee thus far, outside of the upset of UNC. In fact, since that 31-28 victory over the Tar Heels, it's been all downhill. To get even more specific, since going up 31-7 in that game, FSU has been outscored 110-33. It seems like Norvell is going to just have to start building from a new foundation. I think N.C. State will snap its losing skid and continue the misery for the 'Noles (or perhaps it is a blessing in disguise, so that Norvell can start fresh in 2021).
N.C. State 34, Florida State 20

Louisville (2-5) at Virginia (2-4), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
The Cavaliers got an unexpected bye week last weekend and are back on the field today against a Cardinals team not performing as well it would've expected coming off an 8-5 campaign in coach Scott Satterfield's first season.

Louisville is still expected to be without several players due to the virus, especially on defense.

With a couple of notable exceptions, the Cardinals have struggled on defense. Their best performance came against Notre Dame, holding the undefeated Fighting Irish to 338 yards, but Louisville lost 12-7. On the other hand, Virginia Tech, Miami, and even Georgia Tech all went for more than 400 yards on the Cardinals, and all scored at least 42 points in wins.

The Cardinals' defense ranks 68th nationally in points allowed per game (29.6). They have been much better against the pass (25th) than the run (94th). LBs Monty Montgomery and Dorian Etheridge top the unit with four and 2.5 sacks, respectively. Louisville only has two picks, one each for LB C.J. Avery and DB Jack Fagot.

Two weeks ago in Virginia's 44-41 win over North Carolina, offensive coordinator Robert Anae did a good job of keeping the Cavaliers on the ground, gashing the Tar Heels for 210 yards. And even though it lost against Miami and Wake Forest, UVa also was solid on the ground in those contests, tallying 185 yards against the Hurricanes and 218 versus the Demon Deacons. The game plan should be similar today.

Backup QBs Ira Armstead and Keytaon Thompson have provided a boost to the UVa rushing attack. Armstead has been declared out for the season with a knee injury, but Thompson's role in the offense as a rusher, receiver, and possibly passer has continued to grow. Starting QB Brennan Armstrong hurt his knee at the end of the UNC victory, but luckily, it wasn't serious, and word is he will be in a brace but ready to go today. Thompson finished off the Tar Heels by rushing for the first down on a fake punt.

RBs Wayne Taulapapa and Shane Simpson have been good, too, and Virginia is still hoping to get Indiana transfer Ronnie Walker some work. It took longer than expected to get Walker eligible for this season through the NCAA, and then, when he finally was allowed to play, he got sick and missed the past two games.

Louisville's wins came against Western Kentucky in the opener 35-21 and three weeks ago against Florida State 48-16 when the Cardinals snapped a four-game losing streak. In addition to the losses to Notre Dame, Miami (47-34), Georgia Tech (46-27), and Virginia Tech (42-35), Louisville also lost to Pittsburgh by three, 23-20.

Despite the losing record, Louisville has explosive capabilities on offense, but that hasn't shown up consistently in 2020. The Cardinals rank 59th in scoring (29.4 ppg), 43rd in rushing, and 48th in passing. QB Micale Cunningham is a throwing and running threat. He's completed 63.4% of his passes for 1,746 yards, 15 TDs, and eight INTs, while adding 210 rushing yards and a trio of scores. Cunningham has been sacked 18 times. Most recently, the Hokies got him on the turf three times. Virginia LB Charles Snowden was a beast against UNC, sacking QB Sam Howell four times. LB Nick Jackson got Howell down once, and LB Zane Zandier also hit him and caused a fumble which was incorrectly ruled an incomplete pass. Hopefully these guys continue to play well and others join in, because it's likely Virginia will continue to give up chunk plays on defense, too, as it has been especilly vulnerable through the air. Safeties Joey Blount and Brenton Nelson are out again.

Javian Hawkins leads Louisville in rushing with 822 yards (second in ACC) and seven TDs. His 6.2 yards per carry ranks seventh in the conference. WR Tutu Atwell paces the Cardinals with 40 catches for 528 yards and five TDs. WR Dez Fitzpatrick has recorded 22 catches for 443 yards (20.1 yards per catch is second in ACC) and two scores. TE Marshon Ford has tallied 20 receptions for 226 yards and five TDs.

Virginia lost at Louisville 28-21 last year in a rainstorm. It was one of the more disappointing outings in the 2019 campaign. I think the Cavaliers stand a good chance at redemption today in Charlottesville, where it is a beautiful day for football. UVa seems to be building momentum, even through the losses before the UNC game. A struggling Louisville program that is expected to be without a few players seems like a good way for the Cavaliers to keep it going.
Virginia 34, Louisville 31