Battle for the Commonwealth Cup
Virginia (5-4) at Virginia Tech (4-6), 8 p.m. ACC Network
The 2020 college football season has mirrored the year 2020: long, strange, frustrating, and sometimes exhausting. The Cavaliers' campaign is coming to a close Saturday two weeks later than normal, but the opponent is the same as it has been for more than a decade: the archrival Hokies.
2020 tried to serve up something different for this series. Originally, Virginia and Virginia Tech were scheduled to face each other in the season-opening game in September. But COVID-19 issues in the Hokies' program forced it to be postponed, and so once again it is serving as the conclusion to the season for both teams.
Virginia's game two weeks ago at Florida State was postponed due to COVID issues for the Seminoles, and the ACC asked the Cavaliers to play FSU next weekend instead, but coach Bronco Mendenhall said this week that the program told the ACC they would not do that. I applaud Mendenhall and the school for sticking to their guns and not giving in to the conference. One dead-end trip to Tallahassee is enough. Mendenhall said he liked the idea of ending the season with Virginia Tech.
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It also is looking increasingly likely that UVa will not play in a bowl game this season if it is invited. Safety Joey Blount said recently that he would like to spend Christmas with his family. I can't blame the players one bit if that is the decision they make. It has been a grueling season of following the ACC's and Mendenhall's strict COVID protocols. By all accounts, the players have done a good job of following the rules, as evidenced by the lack of COVID issues in the program. There have not been any games with a significant number of Cavaliers out, and no games have been postponed because Virginia was unable to play. It sounds like the players have had little contact with the outside world. That is great for building team chemistry but not ideal for mental health. So I would assume that the decision has already been made internally, and Virginia just has not publicly announced it. I bet the players are getting ready for this game knowing it is their last, and putting all of their physical and mental preparation and effort into it. It would not surprise me if Mendenhall says after the Tech game, win or lose, that the Cavaliers have played their final game in 2020.
So with the assumption that this is the end of the crazy 2020 journey, let's just hope Virginia can wrap up the season the right way. Finishing 6-4 after a 1-4 start and with a second consecutive victory over the Hokies -- after last year's amazing 39-30 triumph at Scott Stadium -- would be a fantastic way to finish the year. I predicted a 6-5 or 7-4 campaign, so 6-4 would fit right into what I was hoping for this season. If Virginia loses to Tech to finish 5-5, no doubt I would be disappointed, but I would be more disappointed in the loss than in the season as a whole. With Brennan Armstrong only being a sophomore and a significant number of players expected to return to an offense that really hit its stride after the Miami game, the future would still be bright for 2021.
Virginia has not defeated Tech in two consecutive years since 1997-98, and 1998 also happens to be the last time the Wahoos beat the Hokies in Blacksburg. That was the famous comeback contest, when Virginia rallied from down 29-7 to win 36-32, with Aaron Brooks hitting Ahmad Hawkins for the game-winning 47-yard TD reception with two minutes left.
Virginia and Virginia Tech have had strikingly similar and contrasting seasons at the same time. The Cavaliers began 1-4; the Hokies began 3-1. The two schools have eight common opponents: Duke, N.C. State, Miami, Boston College, Louisville, Clemson, Wake Forest, and North Carolina. They both went 4-4 against those foes. Virginia beat Duke, BC, Louisville, and UNC, and lost to N.C. State, Miami, Clemson, and Wake. Tech defeated Duke, BC, Louisville, and N.C. State, and fell to Miami, Clemson, Wake, and UNC. Tech's other losses came against Liberty and Pittsburgh. Right now, the 'Hoos are undeniably the hotter team, having won four in a row, while the Hokies have lost four in a row.
Tech has not been able to rebound ever since its somewhat shocking 38-35 loss to Liberty, the defeat that began the Hokies' losing streak. Not shocking in that the Flames aren't a pretty good team this year (though UVa and Tech fans are always going to expect to beat Liberty), but shocking in that Tech seemingly had won the game after returning a blocked kick for a touchdown, only to find out coach Justin Fuente had called timeout prior to the play. Given a second chance, LU made the field goal. The next week, Tech led Miami (which is currently 8-1 and ranked No. 10) for a majority of their contest before losing 25-24. And then blowout losses to Pitt and Clemson followed.
Questions surround Tech coach Justin Fuente's job security. His last three seasons have been tumultuous roller-coaster rides. His 2019 campaign was rescued from the brink of disaster when the team won six of seven games in the middle of the schedule, thanks to the insertion of new starting QB Hendon Hooker. But the season ended with the loss to Virginia -- which hadn't happened since 2003 and obviously still doesn't sit well with fans -- and a disappointing defeat against Kentucky in the Belk Bowl.
This year has been marred by inconsistent performance and possible disinterest by some players. The Hokies are guaranteed to finish the regular season with their first losing record since 1992. The NCAA waived all win requirements for bowl game eligibility this year, so it is possible that the Hokies could defeat Virginia and then win a bowl game to finish 6-6, thus eking out a .500 overall record and extending their bowl streak to 28 years, the longest active streak in the nation. But accepting a bowl invitation at 4-7, or even 5-6 after beating your archrival, just to keep that streak alive -- and with questions regarding your coach's status -- would seem desperate. I think even Hokies fans would agree with that assessment. My guess is this is the end of the road for Tech, too.
At quarterback, Tech has two options, maybe three, and it's unclear who will be under center. Last year's main starter, and the player who started against UVa, is Hooker. He missed the first four games of this season getting medically cleared. He has started every game since, completing 65.3% of his passes for 1,339 yards, nine TDs, and five INTs. He's rushed for 620 yards and nine more scores.
However, Hooker was pulled after the opening drive of last week's loss to Clemson. In his place went junior Braxton Burmeister, a transfer from Oregon who started the first four games. Prior to last week, he had not played since Oct. 10 against North Carolina. Burmeister has completed 53.2% of his passes for 475 yards, one TD, and one pick, and he's rushed for 146 yards and two TDs. Burmeister kept last week's game competitive for a while and finished with his best game passing, 10 of 12 for 106 yards. It was just 17-10 Clemson late into the third quarter, but Burmeister fumbled deep in Tech's end of the field, and the Tigers quickly scored. After that, Burmeister left the game with an apparent leg injury, and Hooker went back in briefly. But he fumbled the ball, too, and the Tigers took it back for a 66-yard TD, making it 31-10, and Clemson was on its way to a 45-10 victory. Afterward, Hooker was seen shaking on the sideline, and he did not re-enter the game. The official word was that he had just gotten cold and could not warm up again, but it looked scarier than that. Reportedly, he is good to go for this game. Freshman Knox Kadum finished versus Clemson, but it seems unlikely he will play unless both Hooker and Burmeister really aren't themselves. Hooker and Burmeister are both good runners, but Hooker is definitely a step above Burmeister in terms of passing.
The Hokies' main weapon this year has been their rushing attack. Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert (in photo below) has been very good. He is second in the ACC with 1,020 yards and first in yards per carry (7.6). He has seven TDs. Raheem Blackshear, a Rutgers transfer, has 255 yards and two scores. With the exception of allowing a few long runs that come to mind, Virginia has been solid in rush defense this year, ranking 26th nationally.
Tech's three primary pass-catchers are WR Tre Turner (31 catches, 504 yards, three TDs), WR Tayvion Robinson (33, 494, two), and TE James Mitchell (23, 368, four). Turner did not play against Clemson, but is expected to face the 'Hoos. As has been noted multiple times, Virginia has really struggled against the pass this year. It actually now ranks dead last in the country, giving up 314.7 yards per game.
Defensively, Tech has been a mixed bag in its first season under coordinator Justin Hamilton following Bud Foster's retirement. The Hokies rank 102nd against the pass and 96th against the run, but are tied for 16th with 3.2 sacks per game (Virginia is tied for ninth at 3.56), and they've also got 10 interceptions, which ranks tied for 17th (Virginia is tied for 14th with 11). Neither team has recovered a ton of fumbles, with Tech at five and UVa at six. Overall, the Hokies are +2 in turnover margin while the 'Hoos are even.
Safety Chamarri Conner leads Tech with 76 tackles, and veteran stalwart linebacker Rayshard Ashby has 64. Three defensive linemen lead the Hokies in sacks: Justus Reed with 6.5, Amare Barno with 5.5, and Jarrod Hewitt with 4.5. Barno paces the unit with 14 tackles for losses, and he also has forced two fumbles. Safety Divine Deablo is first on the unit with three interceptions, while Conner and CBs Devin Taylor and Brion Murray have two each.
On social media, some of Tech's players act like they are plenty motivated to avenge last year's streak-snapping loss and get the Commonwealth Cup back, but you have to wonder a little bit at this point, given the uncertainty swirling around Fuente and the fact that the team has lost four straight. If Virginia can get out in front, especially by a couple scores, maybe we will see how motivated they are, though players can always have other reasons for playing hard other than just because they enjoy being led by their coach. That can certainly help, though, and there's a legitimate question about whether they have that.
I feel good about UVa moving the ball on this defense. The Cavaliers have been rolling on offense, scoring 43.25 points per game during the winning streak. Even if you take out the Abilene Christian matchup, the 'Hoos have put up 39.3 points per game against UNC, Louisville, and BC. If they don't turn the ball over, which they've done a better job of in the second part of the season, I'm confident UVa will be able to put up points.
I am worried about the Hokies moving the ball consistently. The Cavaliers' secondary has not been good, though Blount, who played last week after missing multiple games, is expected to play, and so are LB Noah Taylor and DL Jahmeer Carter, both of whom were out last week. (Additionally, WR Lavel Davis, who left last week's game after a big hit, is expected to suit up, too.) Virginia has given up lots of big plays this season, though the rash of opponents scoring in the opening moments of games has subsided recently. I think Tech will hit on a few big pass plays. Hooker can hurt them more through the air than Burmeister. I am not as worried about the QBs running, and I think UVa will do a pretty solid job of slowing them down. However, Herbert is the real deal, and I think Virginia could have an issue stopping him.
This game may come down to turnovers, as many often do. If both teams are playing hard, this will likely be a tight contest going into the fourth quarter. UVa has done a much better job recently of generating more turnovers than it loses. Since returning from his concussion, Armstrong has 11 TDs and just three INTs in five games. He had six picks in the first three games.
There's going to be very few people at Lane Stadium, so crowd noise and the general hostile atmosphere on the road, especially in this rivalry, shouldn't be a factor. Also, the weather is supposed to be really good for mid-December in Blacksburg, probably around 50 degrees at kickoff. There's some chance of precipitation, but not much, a good thing since the Cavaliers have traditionally struggled under Mendenhall in bad weather.
Virginia seems to have all the momentum and will want to notch that first victory in Lane in more than 20 years. Last year's win was huge, but I think these players will still be very motivated to win, to say they beat Tech as well, and begin a winning streak against the Hokies. That would be a great accomplishment for this group. Tech is motivated to get the Cup back, but it has a losing streak weighing it down, and we can't be 100% certain the players are all in on Fuente. It's been a tough, weird season that will require focus to finish strong, so give me the Wahoos over the Hokies in a high-scoring affair.
Virginia 38, Virginia Tech 34
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