Virginia football 2021 season preview

William & Mary at Virginia, 7:30 p.m. MASN/Fox Sports/ESPN3

Virginia sets off on a challenging yet promising 2021 season tonight against William & Mary. While the world attempts to put 2020 in the rear view, the Cavaliers are trying to do that, too, and show that they can sustain success and that last season was more of a small stepback rather than a sign of continued inconsistency in the program. The fourth- and fifth-year players who decided to stick around determined that the way last year unfolded wasn't acceptable, and so quite a few took advantage of the free extra year to try to right the wrongs. And technically, Virginia is still the defending Coastal Division champ, so they have that to fight for. Coach Bronco Mendenhall has said throughout the offseason that those older guys have set the tone for 2021 and have been working really hard to bounce back from what they viewed as a disappointing 2020. Let's dive in and take a look at this edition of the 'Hoos.

Last year: 5-5 (4-5 ACC) Best win: vs. No. 15 North Carolina, 44-41 Worst loss: at Virginia Tech, 33-15

Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (sixth year, 30-32, 129-75 career)

Starters returning: 17 (10 offense, 7 defense, 0 specialists)
Offensive players to watch: QB Brennan Armstrong. What will the redshirt junior do in his second year starting? In 2020, Armstrong completed 58.6% of his passes for 2,117 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in nine games. He also rushed for 552 yards and another five scores.

It's a cliche, but it was a tale of two seasons for Armstrong. He struggled a bit early on with three passing TDs and six INTs in his first 2.5 games, up to getting knocked out of the N.C. State game with a concussion late in the first half. Armstrong missed the Wake Forest contest. He returned against Miami, and in the final six games, he tallied 13 passing TDs compared to five INTs. Over that final stretch, he threw more than one pick only once -- at Virginia Tech to close the campaign. So clearly, something began to click for Armstrong. He has said he is confident that he will be more comfortable in 2021 having had a full year under his belt and a more normal offseason to develop chemistry with his receivers. It would be pretty surprising to see Armstrong backslide after the progress he made, so I expect to see Armstrong more resemble his second-half-of-2020 form in 2021. But I'm sure there could still be some growing pains.

Armstrong needs to be more accurate, but production-wise, he's right there with Bryce Perkins' averages from 2018-19. Armstrong's season average for passing yards per game ended up surpassing Perkins' career average for passing yards per game, and Armstrong got close to eclipsing Perkins in rushing. Over his two seasons, Perkins recorded 230.3 passing yards and 62.7 rushing yards per game. In 2020, Armstrong posted 235.2 passing yards and 61.3 rushing yards per game. Armstrong has a different style than Perkins -- center Olu Oluwatimi said Armstrong is trying to go fast, whereas Perkins liked to survey the defense before each play -- and is a more rugged runner, but the drop-off from Perkins to Armstrong was not too steep. Armstrong just needs to work on his efficiency. There's no reason he can't be close to as effective as Perkins now a full year into running the offense. Perkins and Kurt Benkert both took jumps once they became second-year starters.

WR Dontayvion Wicks. It's all aboard the hype train for Wicks, a 6-foot-1 sophomore. He was expected to have a breakout season in 2020 before injuring his foot and missing the entire year. He has chemistry with Armstrong that dates to their time as backups in 2019. That year, Wicks caught three passes, one of which resulted in a touchdown off a pretty sideline pass from Armstrong against Liberty. Wicks could play a Lavel Davis-type role with Davis now out at least for a while with a torn ACL. But honestly, I am looking for more out of Wicks than we even got out of Davis last year when he caught 20 passes. I am expecting more of an every-down type of threat out of Wicks, like we got with Billy Kemp IV last year. Kemp led the team in receptions in 2020 and might again, but keep an eye on Wicks to see what he becomes.

Defensive players to watch: LB Nick Jackson. Now in his second year starting, Jackson, a junior, is the main man in the middle of the defense. He already had a fantastic 2020, racking up a team-leading 105 tackles (second in ACC with 10.5 per game), six for losses, 2.5 sacks, two breakups, three QB hurries, and one forced fumble. He was named third-team all-ACC. More seasoned depth on the defensive line and a secondary that is hopefully improved should allow Jackson to focus on running the defense as a coach on the field, make more disruptive plays, and continue to put up huge tackle numbers.

S Joey Blount. The senior safety is back for his fifth season after only getting to play in five games last season as he battled an injury. He collected 25 tackles, 2.5 for losses, one sack, one interception, two breakups, five QB hurries, and one forced fumble. In 2019, Blount was an all-ACC third-teamer after posting 95 tackles, 6.5 for losses, 3.5 sacks, a team-leading three picks, three breakups, and a QB hurry. It's been well documented how terrible Virginia's pass defense was last season. If Blount can stay healthy, and supposedly this has been his healthiest offseason as a 'Hoo, then the secondary should definitely get a lift, although much of what Blount brings is an attitude and toughness to the team, along with run support defense, as opposed to being a pass defending specialist. He's never been afraid to throw his body around, sometimes to the detriment of his own health.

Photo: We hope Brennan makes us smile in 2021 with more TDs and fewer interceptions, as he did in the second half of last season. (Matt Riley/UVa Athletics)

Special teams players to watch: P Jacob Finn. With Nash Griffin having graduated, Virginia held a competition for punter and Finn, a sixth-year graduate student from Florida, won it. He booted 26 punts an average of 46.3 yards last season and recorded only one touchback, placing 14 inside the 20-yard line. His longest punt was 67 yards. Finn led a punting unit that finished third nationally in net punting average. It seems like Finn will be an excellent weapon for the Wahoos.

K Justin Duenkel. Just like Griffin, kicker Brian Delaney decided to move on rather than use his extra season. He turned into a pretty consistent kicker that just had a few lapses, sometimes in odd moments, such as when he missed extra points in big games against Florida State and Virginia Tech in 2019. He took a slight step back in 2020 by going 10 of 13 on field goals. He was at 20 of 24 in 2019. But he will forever be remembered for his game-winning 48-yarder against the Hokies that season. Hopefully Duenkel can be at least as good as Delaney if not better.

Schedule: vs. William & Mary, vs. Illinois, at North Carolina, vs. Wake Forest, at Miami, at Louisville, vs. Duke, vs. Georgia Tech, at BYU, bye, vs. Notre Dame, at Pittsburgh, vs. Virginia Tech.

Outlook: This is a big year for Virginia. Last season was a bit of a step back for the program given the trajectory of Mendenhall's first four years. I think it would have been unreasonable to expect another nine-win season, but at least six wins, maybe seven, in the 10-game schedule would've been nice. A late win streak and a good win over No. 15 North Carolina pretty much salvaged the season. Still, it ended on a sour note when the team not only lost to a mediocre Virginia Tech squad but also looked listless while doing so. I think the team's will and focus will be improved this year. Mendenhall has said the health and safety aspect took such a big chunk of his time and energy in 2020 that he was unable to encourage the development of the culture as much as he normally would have liked.

UVa, the ACC, and college football as a whole is going through a lot of change right now given the realignment and name, image, and likeness issues that have been swirling. Mendenhall has been trying to get a new football facility built to support the program for years to come. COVID interrupted those plans, but the facility is still expected, if perhaps just on a smaller scale. Such a facility is needed to keep up with the arms race in the ACC. Is Virginia going to have a facility like Clemson? No. But Mendenhall has said UVa has the worst football facilities in the ACC on the whole. That should not be the case. The coaching staff has been able to earn some recruiting wins lately, and a new facility would help support what they are trying to do. It doesn't need to be a palace, but hopefully the lack of something adequate doesn't continue to be a hindrance to recruiting.

So this year is a pivotal season for the sport and for UVa. We want to make sure the ship is sailing in the right direction so we can position ourselves for a strong 2022 and beyond. Former UVa coach Al Groh experienced winning seasons in his second, third, fourth, and fifth years in Charlottesville before going 5-7 in 2006. We don't want the same thing to happen to Mendenhall's program in his sixth year. A losing record would feel a bit like going back to square one. At minimum, this fan base should expect a winning season.

Photo: Mendenhall faces a bit of pressure in his sixth year. Can he sustain a winning program at UVa?

Luckily, I think that UVa has the goods to not only do that but perhaps once again contend for the Coastal title -- with a little luck. Just based on experience alone and his trajectory in 2020, Armstrong should be better.

Armstrong's offensive line is shaping up to be the best of the Mendenhall era, with the coach saying the team has six legitimate starters on the line -- keyed by the center, Olu Oluwatimi, guard Chris Glaser, and tackle Ryan Swoboda -- not to mention touted freshmen backups Logan Taylor and Noah Josey. The line not only has veteran starters, it may have quality depth this season. That also means there are fewer excuses for the traditional running game. Virginia needs someone to step up in the backfield, whether it is likely third-year starter Wayne Taulapapa, 2020 opt-out but promising sophomore Mike Hollins, Indiana transfer Ronnie Walker, who had trouble getting cleared to play last year, or someone else. And it could just be a thing of Armstrong not tucking the ball and running himself as much, and offensive coordinator Robert Anae sticking with the running backs if they are playing well and trusting them to get the necessary yardage. We know that keeping Armstrong healthy is immensely important. So let's not put him in harm's way with numerous called QB runs. But I say that every year, and every year, the QB runs a lot. So I'm not sure if that will change. But if there's a year to feed the backs a bit more, this is it. The receivers, while not returning a lot of production, should still be dynamic with Wicks, workhorse Billy Kemp, transfer tight end Jelani Woods (who we keep hearing buzz about), and do-everything weapon Keytaon Thompson. Transfer Ra'Shaun Henry is also expected to be more visible in his second year as a 'Hoo.

The defensive line is more talented and experienced than a season ago despite the loss of transfer Jowon Briggs. Aaron Faumui, who opted out of 2020, is back and expected to continue his rise, Jahmeer Carter could be a breakout star, and Mandy Alonso is back for his fifth season as a steady presence. JMU transfer Adeeb Atariwa is also in his second season with UVa and in line to start at end. The linebackers group lost Charles Snowden and Zane Zandier, among others, but Jackson will prevent any sort of big drop-off, and Noah Taylor is hoping to be more disruptive than in his somewhat disappointing 2020 campaign when he reportedly battled a back injury. Young, talented Hunter Stewart and fifth-year veteran Elliott Brown are expected to be the other starters.

Ah, the secondary. What will we do with you? Well one thing is there's more of a focus on the unit this year. Mendenhall shuffled coaching assignments in the offseason, determined to not let the pass defense be as bad as it was in 2020. A healthy Blount will help things as will increased depth and competition, with Louisville transfer CB Anthony Johnson expected to push Nick Grant and Darrius Bratton for time. Bratton is expected to be better after having a tough time getting back into the swing of things in 2020 after missing the entire 2019 campaign with an injury. Also, De'Vante Cross has moved back to safety, a position for which he is a much better fit than cornerback, a position he struggled at after getting placed there following Bryce Hall's injury in the middle of the '19 season.

The schedule is, admittedly, tough. Virginia could win the division but not win nine games. North Carolina is the favorite in the division and already lost Friday night at Virginia Tech, so we seem set for another year of Coastal chaos. Take care of winning at Scott Stadium (the home schedule is set up to go 6-1, maybe 5-2), try to break even with a tough road slate, and see where the chips fall. If the team can remain mostly healthy -- and Mendenhall recently said this is maybe the healthiest team he has ever had going into a season -- there's no reason it can't compete to win this division if it plays up to its potential more often than not. The offense is set up to score a lot of points, and the defense probably will improve a bit against the pass.

But I think we are all excited to just get the season started with a crowd in the stands. I have to say it was cool to see that enormous intense crowd at Tech on Friday night, even if it was mostly made up of Hokies. Virginia does not have a marquee foe to begin the season, but everyone who makes the trip to Scott will be pumped up come kickoff for the William & Mary game, and I think the Tribe will end up paying the price for coming to visit the amped up Wahoos. College football is back, baby. Let's have a heckuva season.

Win-loss prediction: 7-5 or 8-4

Game prediction: Virginia 56, William and Mary 13