Virginia at No. 21 North Carolina, 7:30 p.m. ACC Network
The "South's Oldest Rivalry" gets renewed today for the 126th time. Presumptive Coastal Division favorite North Carolina was already knocked off once at Virginia Tech in Week 1, so the pressure is on the Tar Heels to not fall behind at 0-2 in the division. This is Virginia's ACC opener after the first two games went about as well as can be expected for the Wahoos (2-0). But William and Mary and Illinois were not exactly stiff tests, so there's still a little uncertainty among fans about just how good this team could be. A victory in Chapel Hill would be huge for the Wahoos and could signal big things ahead this season. A loss wouldn't be great, of course, but there would still be plenty of games left for the 'Hoos to have a good season and contend in the Coastal. To me, the Tar Heels are probably feeling more pressure because of what I described: They are the Coastal favorite and have already lost, plus they have fallen four straight times to Virginia, including last season's 44-41 upset in Charlottesville. Let's get into some more details for tonight's matchup:
North Carolina's record: 1-1 (0-1 ACC)
Win: vs. Georgia State last week Loss: at Virginia Tech in Week 1
Coach: Mack Brown (third year in second stint at school, 85-57-1 career at UNC, 260-133-1 overall career)
Series record: UNC leads 63-58-2 or 62-59-2; the reason behind two different records is because in 1956, UNC won but later forfeited the game because of an ineligible player, and UNC still counts this game as a win for itself while UVa does not.
Last meeting: Oct. 31, 2020; UVa won, 44-41 Streak: Four straight for Virginia
Line: UNC by 8 as of Wednesday night
Over/under: 66.5
North Carolina offense: It all starts with QB Sam Howell. He had a difficult time at Virginia Tech in the opener. Like last season, his line failed to protect him, and the Hokies sacked him six times. Howell only threw one TD compared with three interceptions. He bounced back in a big way last week against Georgia State, going 21 for 29 for 352 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Of course, the opponent played a major part in that. He was still sacked twice by the Panthers, though. The Wahoos sacked him five times a season ago in their upset victory over the Heels, but four of those came from Charles Snowden, and he isn't roaming on the defense anymore. In its first two games, Virginia has done just a so-so job of getting to the QB. The decision against Howell is: Do you drop more into coverage and make things harder for him that way, or try to go after him? If you can't get to him even on a blitz, that risk could backfire. UVa hasn't blitzed as much as last year so far, but that could be a function of its opponents. And that's not too surprising given the emphasis Bronco Mendenhall wanted to put on improving the secondary. But we will see if the Cavaliers decide to try and send more players on the pass rush against Howell, who also has the ability to escape the pocket and take off (though he didn't have much success in that regard vs. UVa last year). He is the Tar Heels' leading rusher with 139 yards and two TDs. No. 2 on that list is RB Ty Chandler, who has 124 yards and a score. WR Josh Downs leads the receiving corps with 16 receptions for 196 yards and two TDs.
North Carolina defense: The Tar Heels' defense, which welcomed back 10 starters, has been better so far this year in a limited sample size. It held the Hokies to just under 300 yards in that loss. It sacked VT QB Braxton Burmeister once -- with Tomon Fox and Kaimon Rucker each picking up a half sack -- and intercepted him once -- Ja'Qurious Conley nabbed it. Burmeister was able to scramble for 42 yards and a TD, though, so Brennan Armstrong should be able to get yardage that way when plays break down. Armstrong hurt the Heels with his feet in last year's upset, recording 66 yards and a score. Against Georgia State, UNC was simply better. The Tar Heels held the Panthers to 271 yards, but only DL Myles Murphy picked up a sack. LB Power Echols recorded an interception. Through two games, Conley leads the team with 12 tackles, including two for losses. Murphy has two TFLs, as well.
North Carolina special teams: Grayson Atkins has made 2 of his 3 field goals with a long of 31 yards, and he missed a 34-yarder last week. Ben Kiernan has been solid punting.
Thoughts and pick: Virginia is coming into this contest with a lot of confidence. It has four straight victories over the Tar Heels and is off to a 2-0 start this season. Almost every player on the Wahoos' roster -- with the exception of the sixth-year seniors -- has never lost to UNC. The bettors seem to have a bit of confidence in Virginia, too, though not necessarily to win, perhaps. North Carolina opened the week as a 10-point favorite -- which did seem rather high -- but is now an 8-point favorite. Two points is a fairly significant move for a line. So certainly plenty of people are expecting this to be a close game.
The big thing that swung last year's contest in Virginia's favor was, of course, turnovers. Virginia scored going into halftime to go up 27-20 and then again to start the third quarter to make it 34-20. Then Howell fumbled on a sack by Snowden and UVa scored again to go up 41-20. From there, the Cavaliers just had to hang on, which is pretty much what they had to do as the Heels made a furious rally. Virginia sealed the win when Keytaon Thompson picked up 4 tough yards on a fake punt near midfield. Hopefully UVa can come up with a turnover or two in its favor tonight, but if not, perhaps the revamped secondary will be able to limit the damage Howell can do anyway. Howell is also without his top weapons from last season, including WR Dyami Brown, who shredded the 'Hoos for 11 catches for 240 yards and three scores last season and is now, thankfully, in the NFL.
Ultimately, I like the 'Hoos in this spot. UVa hasn't been a good road team -- its last victory away from Scott Stadium was actually at UNC in 2019 -- but this is a new team that has been looking to emphasize road success, and Chapel Hill is a place in which UVa has had road success recently. This is the first time the players will have encountered a hostile crowd in a long time. I think that will get the juices flowing. The offense seems to be clicking, and though UNC's defense is improved, I like the Wahoos' chances to put up a healthy number on the scoreboard. I think the defense will do just enough to limit the Heels and pull off the upset.
Virginia 36, North Carolina 33
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