Virginia at No. 25 BYU, 10:15 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2
The Cavaliers head to BYU looking for their first five-game winning streak since the 2007 season. They are also seeking their third straight road win (not in order, of course, with the home games versus Duke and Georgia Tech thrown in there) for the first time since 2011, which is also the last time they beat a ranked team on the road (No. 23 Florida State).
BYU is a high-level FBS independent program that is leveling up soon: The Cougars recently accepted an invitation to become part of the Big 12 in 2023. They've been independent since 2011, leaving the Mountain West Conference after the 2010 season. When Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall led the Cougars, he was a proponent of getting them back into a conference, but that is not something he was able to see happen under his watch.
BYU has been a solid program for a long time, and this year is no exception. Let's take a look at the details of tonight's matchup:
BYU’s record: 6-2
Wins: Arizona (comfortable, in Las Vegas), No. 21 Utah (somewhat comfortable at home; Utes are now 4-3), No. 19 Arizona State (somewhat comfortable at home; Sun Devils are now 5-2), South Florida (comfortable at home), Utah State (fairly comfortable on the road), Washington State (close on the road)
Losses: Boise State (made it close late at home), Baylor (14-point loss on the road)
Coach: Kalani Sitake (sixth year, 44-28)
Series record: Virginia leads, 3-2
Last meeting: Sept. 20, 2014; BYU won, 41-33 Streak: One for BYU
Line: BYU by 2.5 (as of Friday night)
Over/under: 66
BYU offense: The Cougars do not belong to a conference, so I’ll resort to national rankings for their offense and defense. BYU ranks 85th in scoring (26 points per game). It ranks 66th in total offense, 61st in passing offense, and 67th in rushing offense. QB Jaren Hall has completed 63.6% of his passes for 1,348 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’s also rushed for 205 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and one TD. He’s been sacked 11 times, and BYU has allowed 12 sacks overall, which is 35th best. Hall missed the USF and Utah State contests with an injury he suffered against ASU. RB Tyler Allgeier has rushed for 861 yards (No. 7 nationally; 5.1 ypc) and 11 scores. Lopini Katoa has 180 rushing yards (4.2 ypc) and one TD. WR Neil Pau'u has 37 receptions for 439 yards and four TDs. WR Gunner Romney (distant relative of U.S. politician Mitt) has 26 catches for 452 yards and three scores. WR Puka Nacua has tallied 20 catches for 444 yards and one TD.
BYU defense: The Cougars rank 47th in points per game allowed (22.5), 72nd in total defense, 84th in passing D, and 63rd in rushing D. So, like UVa, relative to the yardage the Cougars have allowed, they’ve been decent at not letting that yardage turn into points. LB Payton Wilgar leads the unit with 43 tackles, including six for losses. DL Uriah Leiataua has 2.5 sacks, and DL Pepe Tanuvasa has two. BYU is tied for 98th with 14 sacks. Brennan Armstrong got good protection from his line against Georgia Tech, getting sacked just once, so that could continue this week. DB Malik Moore has three INTs for the Cougars. BYU does very well in turnover margin at plus-7, tied for 15th nationally. It has eight picks and six fumble recoveries.
BYU special teams: Jake Oldroyd is 6 for 9 on field goals, with a long of 49. He is perfect inside 40 yards. Ryan Rehkow’s punts travel an average of 48.9 yards, fourth best in the country. Hobbs Nyberg returns punts an average of 9.6 yards, ranking 23rd nationally.
Thoughts and pick: I think this has all the makings of a really fun late-night game. Regarding bowl eligibility, there’s no pressure on Virginia. The Cavaliers got that coveted sixth win last week, so now they can set their sights higher, and they don’t need to worry about attaining bowl eligibility over the final month against the tougher part of the schedule. Kickoff isn’t until after 10 p.m. for those of us in the Eastern time zone, so plan your day and evening accordingly so you can stay up past 1 a.m., provided the proceedings are going well for the ‘Hoos.
Obviously, the big storyline is Mendenhall’s return to BYU. Most of the UVa coaching staff was at BYU as well before trekking west to Charlottesville. The Cougar faithful seem to be genuinely appreciative of Mendenhall’s time in Provo. The man did go 99-43 over 11 seasons there after all, compiling five campaigns with at least 10 victories. His former BYU players are hoping he receives a warm welcome.
Not to break up the fuzzy feelings, but a heckuva game could break out as well. BYU has not been chopped liver since Mendenhall left. Sitake has done a nice job, with four winning seasons in five years, and the Cougars only need one more victory to ensure another one in 2021. The run of success includes last year’s 11-1 record, posted by a team led by future NFL QB Zach Wilson. The Cougars’ only loss came by 5 points at No. 18 Coastal Carolina.
Sitake, 46, attended BYU as a fullback in the late 1990s. He spent one year in the NFL with the Bengals before getting into coaching. Before taking over in 2016, he had only spent one year at his alma mater, as a graduate assistant in 2002.
Despite Wilson moving on and a tougher schedule, the Cougars are having another good year and are poised to possibly win 10 games again. They have four victories over Pac-12 teams, including wins over ranked schools Arizona State and Utah, though neither are ranked now (though both do have winning records). An interesting feature of BYU’s season is that almost every game has been close. The loss to Baylor came by 14 points, the win over Utah State came by 14, and the win over ASU came by 10. The other five games have been decided by single digits. Virginia has had three close games, though really more like 2.5 – the Georgia Tech game getting close was the Wahoos’ fault, and the Yellow Jackets still needed a Hail Mary TD and 2-point conversion to tie it at the end.
The weather shouldn’t slow down either team. No rain is in the forecast, and the high will be close to 70 before dipping into the 40s at night. Still, for late October at somewhat high elevation in Utah, that’s pretty warm. If the Cougars are smart, they should ground and pound UVa’s porous rush defense, though at times, the Cavaliers have done a decent job when they must slow down the rushing attack. Could the high elevation leave the Cavaliers gassed in the fourth quarter if the game is close? Maybe, but I don’t know how much that really affects the players, and they have been in Utah since Thursday afternoon. Provo is not as elevated as say, Denver, or most of Wyoming (where Virginia infamously lost 23-3 to open the 2007 season).
BYU’s pass D is nothing special, so Armstrong and his cadre of playmakers should be able to put up points and yards as long as they don’t stub their toes with turnovers. As StLouHoo points out in his Wednesday Reset over on Hoos Place, UVa has done a nice job avoiding turnovers lately, with only a meaningless late-game fumble versus Duke in its past two contests. In the Wahoos’ first five games against Power Five competition, they had nine turnovers. Armstrong had six INTs in those five games and none against Duke and GT.
Virginia and BYU have met five times, with every game decided by single digits. BYU has been in several close games this year. UVa has been in close games and can stay in most games with its prolific offense. The Mendenhall factor will make this an emotional game, and I think players on both sides will want to put on a show and try really hard. I think we are looking at a tight final score. But in the end, I think BYU just outlasts UVa a bit and makes a few more good plays.
BYU 40, Virginia 38
Season picks record: 4-4
Comments
Post a Comment