Duke at Virginia, 12:30 p.m. Saturday, MASN/Bally Sports
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The Cavaliers come back to Scott Stadium for the first time since September for a two-game set against Duke and Georgia Tech, teams that look improved over last season. Duke has a pretty good offense and a pretty bad defense. Sound familiar?
Though the past two wins have greatly increased UVa's chances of getting to at least 6-6 in the regular season, work remains to be done. The 'Hoos (4-2, 2-2 ACC) need to take care of business the next two weeks because the last four-game stretch -- at BYU, vs. Notre Dame, at Pittsburgh, and vs. Virginia Tech -- seemingly has more challenges and opportunities for failure. If Virginia can capture its next two matchups and extend its winning streak to four games to get to 6-2, then that last third of the season will be more fun rather than harrowing and/or frustrating.
The second half of the season starts today at what could be a rainy Scott Stadium. Here's more information on Duke, which is trying to get to a bowl game for the first time since 2018:
Duke's record: 3-3 (0-2 ACC)
Wins: all home -- North Carolina A&T (comfortable win, blowout final score probably not indicative of flow of game), Kansas (comfortable), Northwestern (comfortable)
Losses: at Charlotte (close), at North Carolina (blowout), vs. Georgia Tech (close)
Coach: David Cutcliffe (14th year, 77-91, 121-120 career)
Series record: UVa leads, 39-33
Last meeting: Sept. 26, 2020; UVa won, 38-20 Streak: Six for UVa
Line: UVa by 10.5 (as of early Friday night)
Over/under: 69.5
Duke offense: The Blue Devils rank third in the ACC in total offense, second in rushing, and fourth in passing. In terms of points, Duke ranks tied for eighth with Syracuse at 31.5 ppg. RB Mataeo Durant is second in the conference with 788 yards (5.3 yards per carry) rushing and is tied for second with nine rushing TDs. He leads the ACC with 149 carries (nearly 25 carries per game), so he is their workhorse. Durant also has caught 13 passes and scored one receiving TD. RB Jordan Waters has 188 yards rushing (5.4 ypc) and one score. At QB, Duke has been getting some consistency out of graduate student Gunnar Holmberg. He’s completed an ACC-leading 72.5% of his passes for 1,616 yards, six TDs, and four INTs. He’s also rushed for 189 yards and six TDs. Holmberg has been sacked 10 times, getting about middle-of-the-ACC-road protection from his line. At wideout, Jake Bobo ranks second in the ACC with 45 catches for 522 yards and one TD. WR Jalon Calhoun has 30 receptions and a pair of scores.
Duke defense: The Blue Devils rank in the bottom three in the conference in terms of points allowed (28.8 per game compared to 28.5 per game for Virginia), total defense, rush defense, and pass defense. Though Virginia has played some pretty poor defense, Duke is only somewhat better in one area, rush D, in which UVa ranks last. LB Shaka Heyward leads the unit and places tied for second in the conference with 54 tackles, including six for losses and two sacks while adding an interception, a breakup, and four QB hurries. Duke is tied for ninth in the ACC with 11 sacks. DT DeWayne Carter leads the Devils with 2.5 sacks, and DE Ben Frye and DT Aeneas Peebles each have two. Duke is tied for first in the league with seven interceptions. CBs Leonard Johnson and Jeramiah Lewis each have two. Duke has recovered two fumbles. The Blue Devils have a minus-1 turnover margin, which ranks tied for 83rd nationally, a vast improvement over last year when they finished last in the country at minus-19.
Duke special teams: Charlie Ham has made 7 of his 11 field goal attempts, so he's a bit off from his 13-of-15 effort from a year ago. His long is from 50 yards, but that's his only make from 40 yards or more (1 for 4). Porter Wilson ranks fifth in the conference, booting punts an average of 44.5 yards.
Thoughts and pick: Back-to-back down-to-the-wire road victories have UVa back on track at 4-2. It is tough for even the most optimistic fans to say this isn't where they expected Virginia to be at the midpoint of the year. With what was believed to be a very good UNC team on the schedule plus road games at Miami and Louisville, I doubt many fans truly expected much better than 4-2 after six games.
Now for the first time since the Wake Forest game Sept. 24, Virginia is back at home and a favorite. In its way from going above .500 in the conference is a team that it has dominated recently. Not only have the Cavaliers defeated the Blue Devils six consecutive times, but the average margin of victory during the winning streak is 15.8 points, with three straight and four of the six coming by double-digit margins.
So obviously, it is easy to feel pretty confident about this game: The 'Hoos are back at home, and it is difficult to see them losing a second straight home game after being so good there since 2018. They are facing an opponent they have had success against recently. But a few factors do give me pause.
First, Duke appears to have some hope this season. It already has more victories this year than last year, and two of its three losses have come by a combined 7 points. One loss was to Charlotte, but that upstart program is 4-2 and 2-0 on CUSA -- it isn't a pushover. Another close loss came against Georgia Tech last week, and the Yellow Jackets appear to be making strides in their third year under Geoff Collins.
Like Louisville, the main issue the Blue Devils had last season was turnovers: They were dead last nationally with a minus-19 turnover margin. Former QB Chase Brice had a 10-to-15 TD-to-INT ratio. He started his career at Clemson before transferring to Duke and now is at Appalachian State. Even though Duke still isn't on the right side of the turnover margin, it has made a big jump in that area.
Holmberg has been solid and is probably underrated in the ACC. He's a guy who entered the program in 2018 and bided his time until finally getting a chance to start this year. Duke features a strong running game, and Virginia has been terrible against the run, so it will be a challenge to slow down Durant.
The weather could also be a factor. Rain is in the forecast. Right now, it doesn't necessarily look like it will be heavy, but you never know. Duke's rushing attack could have an advantage if UVa is finding it difficult to pass. Although, as I saw pointed out on the Sabre UVa message board, as long as the rain is light, an argument can be made that it could help receivers, who are still able to catch the ball, and the defenders could be slowed down by having to keep up with them on wet grass.
Despite these factors, Duke's defense does need to slow down Virginia, and that will likely be a challenge unless Mother Nature steps in. No word on whether Dontayvion Wicks will be available for the 'Hoos, but they showed last week they can produce without him. The players will be eager to get back to Scott Stadium and right the wrong of losing there last time out versus the Demon Deacons. Also, Duke has looked decent recently before crumbling at Virginia: In 2019, the Blue Devils were 4-2, including a 45-10 stomping of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, when they arrived in Charlottesville. They left with a 48-14 loss, the beginning of a five-game losing streak. So perhaps this start is not as solid as it looks.
In past years, I think I generally am pretty on point with guessing how the 'Hoos will perform. This year seems to be an exception. I have missed on four straight predictions. Let's hope I do not continue that streak because I'm taking Virginia for the first time since the Wake Forest contest.
Virginia 42, Duke 31
Season picks record: 2-4
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