Is the Virginia football program on solid ground?

This might seem like an odd time for this kind of column since this isn’t part of a season recap or a season preview, and it isn’t a bye week. This also might seem like an odd time for this kind of column because the Wahoos have a chance to win the Coastal Division and play in the ACC championship for the second time in the last three seasons. Certainly seems like solid ground to me.

But I think this is a unique moment in time for the UVa football program, and it is more interesting to discuss this than recap Notre Dame’s 28-3 victory over Virginia on Saturday at Scott Stadium.

Despite the success this year – and there has been some, you cannot dispute that – there seems to exist an angst among the Virginia fan base. Perhaps this is true during most seasons to some degree, but you can almost divide the fan base into two groups: those that think Virginia is sitting on solid ground with coach Bronco Mendenhall versus those that think the program is a below-average quarterback away from multiple losing seasons in a row. There may even be (unreasonable) people wondering if Mendenhall’s job is in jeopardy if Virginia (6-4, 4-2 ACC) was to lose out.

So let's take a closer look at this question, because even though the team has a chance to win seven to 10 games this season, some fans are definitely antsy.

Bronco Mendenhall is 36-36 overall and 22-25 in the ACC in his sixth season in Charlottesville.

The great ... and the very bad

This statement has likely never been truer than it is now: The gulf between the team’s best unit and its worst unit is as wide as it has ever been. With Brennan Armstrong, this offense has been one of the best in the country and one of the best in Virginia history. And the defense has been one of the worst in the country. (I can't speak as confidently about this D in terms of Virginia history; I know there were lots of lean years in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.)

Perhaps Virginia football historians can point out other seasons that come close to the disparity between units in 2021. Notably, some of the Al Groh years had some pretty solid defenses and some pretty rough offenses. But I don’t know if the disparity has ever been as great as it is right now. That definitely contributes to this feeling of the foundation of the program being shaky. Despite everything we see the offense doing, we can't just ignore the defense. It is like this dark cloud hanging over the program. It makes us uneasy. It makes the team feel off balance. It makes it feel like no lead is safe. It's also frustrating because we know that if the D was just average this year, the team would maybe be 8-2 or better. It is almost as if the program as a whole would "feel" better if both units were ranked around 40th in the country.

Now, we must acknowledge that for this wide gulf to exist, that has to mean that one of the units has to be really good. So the program should be lauded for how good the offense has been.

However, if someone fell asleep at the beginning of 2019 and woke up now, and you asked them to guess which unit was the one that ranked as of the best in the nation, not one person would guess the offense. In the early Mendenhall years, it was usually the defense keeping Virginia in games. The offense was OK to good but not as consistent. The defense had some down games, yes, but overall, it was the more solid unit. In 2017, Virginia lost to Virginia Tech 10-0. In 2018, Virginia shut out SEC opponent South Carolina in the Belk Bowl and beat Miami 16-13. In 2019, UVa defeated Pittsburgh 30-14 in the season-opener. All four defensive performances seem unfathomable now.

Over the past two-ish seasons, the roles of the offense and defense have reversed. I think a lot of fans would point to Bryce Hall's injury in 2019 as a turning point for the defense. For whatever reason, it's never recovered. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Robert Anae still makes some bone-headed decisions and draws up plays he does not need to, but it is tough to fault the offense’s performance this season with Armstrong under center. This is the most explosive and productive offense of the Mendenhall era.

The defense has been atrocious. Much was made of the move to the 3-3-5 alignment in the preseason, and it has not paid off -- at all. The pass defense is slightly better than last year, ranking 83rd (out of 130) in yards given up per game, but the run defense ranks 122nd, and the overall defense is 120th.

In addition to giving up tons of yards, the defense isn't disruptive. Virginia did pick up two turnovers against Notre Dame, which "elevated" it into a tie for 84th nationally with 12 turnovers forced -- still pretty blah. And with the emphasis on pass D, there's been very little pass rush. UVa is tied for 121st with only 1.2 sacks per game. I do not have a number in front of me, but I am pretty certain that just back in 2019, Virginia was in the top 20 in sacks.

Nick Howell is Virginia's defensive coordinator. But we know Mendenhall has his fingerprints all over the defense. It's quite obvious changes must be made. This is no longer a blip. The trend since about midway through the 2019 season has been that of a deteriorating defense. We hoped it would get better this year, but that's far from what has happened.

I don't truly believe the players are the problem. Recruiting has (mostly) picked up slightly each year, in terms of average class rating. And recruiting can be hit and miss anyway: Hall was a two-star recruit. Juan Thornhill was a mid-three-star guy. Eli Hanback was a low-three-star player. They were all linchpins for the defense from 2016-19. My point is a good defensive system with quality coaches can mold players into a cohesive unit that can be at least average. That's what I thought was happening in Mendenhall's first three seasons and in some cases, the defense was even better than average. Both the run defense and the pass defense have enjoyed stretches of very good play at various times in Mendenhall's tenure. This year, both are several rungs below average. The run defense is poor, and the pass D is only marginally better. And the sacks and turnovers have dried up.

So what will happen once the season ends? Will heads roll on that side of the ball? Will Mendenhall make the tough choices? He has said he enjoys working with his friends. Well, that could be a problem with changes having to be made. But something must change, whether it is a scheme change, an overhaul of how players are being deployed, a bunch of new players being used instead, Mendenhall becoming more or less involved in the defense, or assistant firings.

I am less concerned about the offense. Sure, it did not do much against Notre Dame, showing what it would be like this year if we didn't have Armstrong. But Jay Woolfork was a true freshman going against a tough defense. And saying we are a bad QB away from having a bad offense is just a weird thing to say when you do have a great QB. It's like saying well what if Ty Jerome hadn't committed to the basketball team? We probably wouldn't have won the national title. Well, that's right, but he did come to Virginia. The football staff has been able to coach up three QBs. Kurt Benkert got better from one year to the next, Bryce Perkins progressed, and Armstrong has gotten better. So there's a track record of QB success. Just like there's been the opposite trend for the defense. Will the offense still be frustrating at times? Probably so. But I think more often than not, it is going to be something we can live with.

Mendenhall’s status

To be frank, in the middle of the Louisville game with Virginia trailing 30-13, I did begin to think we were watching the beginning of the end of the Mendenhall era. Now let me clarify. I did not think that he would be fired at the end of this season, or should be, just that it felt like perhaps Mendenhall was in the second half or maybe twilight of his Virginia career. But to their credit, the players and coaches rallied and won that game as part of a stretch of four victories in a row, setting up the spot they are in now. You could perhaps argue that those four wins “saved” the season, but no, I do not think they saved Mendenhall's job. But you could say that I thought about writing about this topic then, the four-game winning streak delayed it, and now I feel like it is a legitimate discussion again.

Even if the team weren’t competing for the Coastal title at this point, Mendenhall would still be safe based on his performance. The program is just two years removed from winning the division and competing in the Orange Bowl -- two things it had never done -- and a victory over Virginia Tech -- something it hadn’t done since 2003. Counting last year, when the team was .500 but declined to play in a bowl game, Mendenhall’s Cavaliers have been bowl-eligible in five of his six years as coach. Before he arrived, Virginia went to one bowl game from the 2008 through 2015 seasons.

Mendenhall is completely safe after this season and likely after the 2022 campaign. Had this year gone south and Miami and Louisville made those game-winning kicks, then perhaps a second straight losing season in 2022 would bring legitimate questions. But that’s not what happened.

Based on performance, Mendenhall will likely be the coach of UVa into 2023 -- if he wants to be the coach. The interesting thing to note regarding Mendenhall’s future at Virginia is wondering just how long he wants to coach. His contract runs through 2024, but it includes a “retirement clause” after 2022. If he leaves UVa after Dec. 4, 2022, and doesn’t take another job to coach college or professional football, he would not owe Virginia any money. Also, he told the Deseret News in May 2020 that he does not consider himself “a lifetime coach”:

“I’m not a lifetime head coach is the best way to say it. I don’t have an interest, and I’ve become less enamored with the world of college athletics as it moves to professionalism and commercialization and entertainment. I’m an advocate of amateur sport and the development of young people through the game. I love the scholar-athlete model. I find myself in the minority more and more. I think college athletics is a great way to develop young people. I was at Brigham Young for 11 years. I just finished four at the University of Virginia. It would be hard to imagine another coaching job after this one as a head coach.”

I find that quote to be really fascinating. Mendenhall is just 55, but it doesn’t sound like he has much desire to coach into old age. Whether that means he would consider activating the retirement clause after the 2022 season or a bit further down the line, it is something to keep an eye on.

The answer and the future

So is the Virginia football program on solid ground? It's a tough question to answer. I don't think the answer is undoubtedly yes or no. Are there some things to feel good about? Absolutely yes. These are good kids who are easy to root for. The offense is rolling (when its star QB is available). Recruiting is not excellent but is solid. The team is bowl-eligible for the fifth consecutive season. Are there some things to feel bad about in the program? Yes. The defense is very bad, and the situation seems a bit hopeless, unless a new set of players next year can maybe turn things around in 2022. Mendenhall's assistants are his friends, so there are doubts that he wants to or would be able to make the tough call to fire people. The scheme was adjusted to make the defense better, but instead it got worse. So it's fair to wonder if Mendenhall even has the fix for that unit. And how much longer does he want to put maximum time into the program?

No matter how you feel about the program, the fact remains that this team has a chance over the next two weeks to win the Coastal Division and go to the ACC championship. The performance over the past two games has not inspired confidence that it will be able to accomplish that feat, but only Pittsburgh has as good a chance as Virginia to take the division. That has to count for something. Back in December 2015 when Mendenhall was hired, we would have all said "sign me up" had we heard that in 2019 and '21 we'd be competing for a championship. We would have all taken that deal -- no questions asked. So let's remember, like we've had to do with the basketball program in "down" years at times, to be thankful and remember where we came from.

So is the Virginia football program on solid ground? I don't know if I would say it is standing on rock. It also isn't sinking in quicksand. But the next two weeks should give us more data to assess whether the foundation is firm or crumbling. And this final stretch will definitely give the optimistic and pessimistic among us plenty of ammo to back their opposing viewpoints.